East Coast Braces For Erosion From Sustained Swell Event
If you’ve been reading the Swellnet forecasts, you’d be aware that the East Coast, and particularly the northern half of the East Coast, is on the cusp of a sustained swell event.
From this weekend through to at least Christmas, parts of the coast - again, mainly in the north - will see wave size fluctuating between four and ten feet.
It’s the result of a classic La Niña pattern as atmospheric moisture above the Coral Sea spawns tropical disturbances that in turn create swell. However, waves aren’t the only thing this coming event will generate. There’ll also be a higher than average threat of coastal erosion.
You’ll recall that back in July, a number of beaches suffered severe erosion with people ordered from their homes at Wamberal, Old Bar and Stockton both losing fifty metres of sand, and trees falling into the sea at Clarkes Beach, Byron Bay.
It should be noted that, at the same time, many north coast pointbreaks had the best sand in recent memory - the distribution of sand was far from equal.
La Niña is especially worrying for erosion hotspots as the increase in tropical activity causes the mean swell direction to swing more towards the east, compounding the threat of erosion.
The East Coast mostly receives south swells, and their predominance has shaped the coastline. The general pattern is large rocky headlands at the southern end of broad, sandy bays. The headlands protect the lee shores from the southerly energy.
However, this leaves those parts of the coast - i.e those lee shores - vulnerable to swells from the east or northeast, as waves from that direction reach the coast with their energy undiminished. Historically, most of the large erosion events have been during east and northeast swells.
Since the erosion in July, some sand has returned to the beach in front of threatened houses at Wamberal (Photo taken 10/12/20 at low tide, from UNSW Water Research Laboratory camera)
Yet swell direction is only one aspect. The other is the nature of swells - meaning their size and consistency - that arrive from that direction, especially under the scenario currently unfolding.
Unlike a classic winter southerly swell, that glances the coast as it moves perpendicular to the shoreline, we can expect the swell to hit straight on so there’ll be less bathymetric interference and more consistency in arrival. The scouring of sand will be incessant, especially during the high tide phases (more on those later).
As for size, though local seabreezes can kick up small windswells from the east and northeast, this isn’t currently the case. Instead, what we’ll see is a high pressure ridge traversing the Tasman Sea while being squeezed by tropical activity to its north, setting up vast areas of trade-winds aimed at Queensland and northern NSW.
This alone will generate a consistent, moderate-to-large easterly trade-swell, but because of the warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Coral Sea and Western Pacific (driven by La Niña), there's an increased chance of a Tropical Cyclone.
When Tropical Cyclones drift south into an established trade-flow they turbocharge an already active sea state, producing larger swells and increasingly this looks to be the case during this weather event.
Through the weekend a tropical depression just west of New Caledonia looks to deepen, further squeezing the northern flank of the high. The depression will form into a low, with a significant fetch of easterly gales due to ramp up on top of an already active sea state. We'll keep a close eye on these developments when or if they unfold.
At present, the largest waves are forecast on Monday afternoon, though if the aforementioned cyclone eventuates all bets are off. Early next week, homeowners and coastal councils will be watching properties through the mornings as the high tides are some of the largest of the year. High water is approximately 9am on Monday for the areas in question, peaking at 1.9 metres, then moving back by around an hour each day though with similarly high levels.
// CRAIG BROKENSHA and STU NETTLE
Comments
Amazing how often these events coincide with big high tides. Will be a very interesting week to say the least.
it's gunna be big.
I think this first system will end up being classified as a hybrid low.
and they tend to be nasty.
Hybrid lownado ?
Come on mate , help me out here . This is the second time I’ve tried to shoehorn a Sharknado style reference to this weather event . Doesn’t look like I’m going to get over the line with it on my own . It’s starting to impact on my self esteem. It’s like my own personal shamenado.
went right over my head through to the keeper.
One of the few surf able spots here would be in the river but with the bullies being stirred up by the rain, maybe not wise.
that would be a Sharknado.
Clarkesnado.
Thank you Scroty.
Never fails to weird me out seeing public beaches turned into construction sites and industrial zones to protect private residences which are obviously inappropriately positioned.
I completely understand the fear of losing your house but you can stick your sandbags and retaining walls in your arse.
Socializing costs and privatizing profits, that's what we keep voting for. I'm not sure why but it seems to be the constant over the last 40 years.
I completely agree. I read once that "coastal erosion isn't a problem until some idiot builds a structure in its path." Then everybody else has to pay.
Warning from Mitchell Harley of UNSW.
Note: At this stage he's only loooking at the Monday peak, not considering the likelihood of follow up swells.
king tides alone can do a lot of damage, especially to point break banks where the water gets in behind and back scours the sand.
punches holes in it.
When it comes to La Nina and surf it might be a case of be careful what you wish for.
we might end up with tons of swell but fukall good surf.
And fckall banks!!!
I always expect a downgrade, but at just 2-3 days out it now seems like the embedded low really will hit the coast. The rainfall will cause as much damage as the tides and swell - at least in SE QLD/ Nth NSW.
Nth NSW to Mid NSW looks to cop a flogging shit load of rain!!!
Byron will need all of Thor's might to hold back these waves.
“You’re thor ? I can barely pith. “
Boom Tish !
Couple errors in this article.
1, God shaped our coastline, not south swells.
2, La Niña has nothing to do with east swell, it’s because of the numbers one and nine
What if south swells happen to be your god?
Since the July drama, Wamberal has had emergency works along the affected stretch, including "engineering designs for emergency protection measures, removing contaminated material, and placing around 4,000 tonnes of sand, 2300 tonnes of quarried rock and 1100 tonnes of rock-filled flexible bags on the beach."
Last month, Council was awarded $992,501 under the NSW Government’s Coastal and Estuary Grants program to help pay for the works. Next few days will be tense as they monitor how the work holds up, or not.
Interesting grant value. The extra $1 on the end.
Last full moon the rock wall foundation at South Steyne (in front of the Corso stairs) was uncovered and this was with minimal swell and the high tide. They've dumped some sand on it, but this coming event is going to stir things up a bit.
That'll be interesting...
On the flip side, a certain beach up the other end of the NB has as much sand on the beach than I've seen it have in my almost 30 yrs on this planet - after most of the southern end being stripped back to bare rock during that amazing winter run.
Less sand in the water than I've ever seen too at the moment, which might be a worry - nothing to attenuate the wave action.
Seems likely that the cyclone will develop and eventually get south of New Caledonia, hopefully straight through the gap between there and Fiji. Could be a big one coming through on some ravaged beaches.
Fingers crossed for the folks up there it does track through the gap.
Interesting that GFS and ECMWF both seem to have it doing just that, though a long way out yet.
Would be interesting to see an identical drone shot of this at low tide in ten days time.
Outer bay Wategos.
https://ibb.co/Qd8vGWC
Current situation..
Jesus. That will cop a hiding!
Best pseudonym I’ve seen in yonks.
Hopefully the heavy rain will wash a bunch of sediment into the rivers and out onto the coast, however there's no way it'll make a dent in the beach erosion we're gonna get.
Quite likely there wont really be too much good surf to be had during and immediately after these events. Sand is mostly shit around here so maybe it'll shake it up a bit.
Seems like an event more typical of late Summer??
Something similar always used to hit around Snapper Pro time.
Down south of syd we have spots that love a big E/NE swell but our beaches do not. The southern corners banks are just getting back in shape from the last solid E/NE swell but some of the beaches are still back to the grassy dunes and are about to cop a hiding. Is it me or is there a faint sent of another Black N/Er?
Very different synoptic set-up to the black nor-easter.
this is a hybrid low, which is pretty typical la Nina signature move.
might have similar effects though. The over-hang from the black nor-easter was extreme here. Some spots took 8-9 months for sand to recover.
Hybrid low off Fraser Xmas/NY 2007, in a La Nina year.
in that case it was more directly linked to the monsoon trough.
I spent that NYE out at Ewingar Hall, upper reaches of Clarence River. We were lucky to get out of property we were on. Tumbulgum went under, dead cows washing out of Tweed onto Dbah, 44 gallon drums into Palmy from Currumbin Creek. Water was feral for about 2 weeks.
I can just see everyone throwng fertilizer on the lawn & garden beds this arvo & ending up in ocean tomorrow. A few ear infections coming up.
Unlike a classic winter southerly swell, that glances the coast as it moves perpendicular to the shoreline,
- you meant 'parallel' right?
this thing will probably fizzle out, or it'll just be wind affected crap. A lot of rain potential though for the northern floody rivers!
Perpendicular means at an angle of 90' to a given line right? If the given line is the coastline then I'd say that defines a south swell coming up the east coast quite well.
yep I agree with my statement, you said south swell moving north up alongside the coast. So its parallel, no 90 deg perp's about it. What's a squircle? a cross between a square and a circle of course.
Looks like we're at cross purposes then. Bom-dum-tish!
Wamberal beach will be washed after again with the NE swell direction .. for us surfers the banks should be awesome Wamby- terrigal .. not so, the beach front still looks like a demo site.. just before the holiday season.. bring your own sand ..,
Folks,
Please see www.australiancoastalwalls.com.au
This system is now available in Australia.
It has a proven track record in protecting beaches from erosion.
All i know is that noosa points will be off tits for the next coupla weeks starting tomorrow. Yewwwww!!!!!!
yep, really looking forward to that..schools finished, uni finished and um isn't it almost Christmas and the sunny coast is already packed with people, yep how fun will Noosa be
'Kin oath. The thought of sharing the water with 300 other frothing surfers makes me shudder. Doesn't matter how good the waves are, that's a nightmare scenario for me.
Not to mention locals been waiting four months for their beloved points to light up,a gazillion bearded retro leashless loggers, learners who love paddling up the face and a few electric foils thrown in the mix.
And a partridge in a pear tree.
Let the houses collapse into the sea and DON'T rebuild. Why should OUR rates dollars pay to sustain million dollar houses that shouldn't be built where they are. Sand dunes then maybe development, no dunes tax payers dollars go to waste for the 'privileged' few. Funny their are still dudes on the far south coast of NSW on the coast still waiting for funding to assist in rebuilds after last summers fires? So it is quite transparent where the priorities lie! Anyways have an offshore Xmas and a tubular New Year (thanks La Nina)..
Why should our rates pay to sustain million dollar houses?
Maybe to protect the public road directly behind them.
Those million dollar houses pay big rates too. But if it goes the way you are suggesting, all good. The work will then get done to protect the roads, but council then gets no rates for land that no longer exists.
Que sera sera.
The road is a good 70 metres further back than the backyards of the houses which usurp public land to defend their inappropriately located houses.
The homeowners can build new homes away from the naturally eroding coastline and pay rates somewhere else. Rates that will not then be wasted on protection of their private property.
It can get complicated though, water and sewage services can be associated- located closeby. So would often need to be a planned approach. Each site would need a individual assessment.
Caveat emptor
At Wamberal the road is one block back. I don’t think their blocks are 70 metres back. Rates aren’t picked up when they move, this other blocks are already paying rates. Rates on the multi-million dollar homes are lost, forever.
And council will still have significant remediation works, sewerage, storm water, drains, road embankments.
Of course, longer term the houses are gone, the roads are gone, the substantial district on the other side of the road is gone ( west of the road is lower, so will go more quickly.) The ocean will eventually take it all, and still people will be denying climate change.
So why are you arguing that houses should be able to protect their property at the expense of the public if they’re all going to end up in the sea anyway.
Council rates.....pfffft. A dizen houses at $3k rates each . Big freakin deal. Public amenity is worth shedloads more than that. But I get where you’re coming from - privatise the profits and socialise the costs and all that ......
Not what i was saying blowin. More a choice of giving up the whole coast there going back a few kms, roads, everything, or trying to hold the line a little longer.
Eventually it’s all going in.
Byron this morning:
How's old mates timing!
Darwinism in action.
Ha
Fark!
Meanwhile, mid-summer at Teahupoo:
Wow! Offshore and 17 seconds. Too late to move the Pipe comp?? :-P
We just had that swell roll through here. Was pretty solid yesterday. Still plenty of swell today.
Gonna pump up there Thu, Fri, Sat!
Gunna be some pissed off longboarders sans leggies, beard oilers and fire twirlers up around those parts.
Very inconvenient this weather event.
rocky shoreline + no leggie + tinted resins = ding fixers bank coin
As Mr Krabbs said: "Moneymoneymoneymoney!"
Interesting longer term progression of cyclones. Now have the two tropical disturbances splitting off, one going more east and that will be sending swell for days and the other big mean one may be getting a bit too close to Fiji. Very concerned for those people, hoping for the best.
Longer term continuing to spin as it slowly moves south, eventually giving NZ some very uncomfortable days leading up to Xmas and continuing swell for east coast for a while yet.
As that is 6 days plus out it is likely to do something different to what is there now, but still some serious energy in the Coral Sea.
Agreed. Looking pretty shit for Fiji's NW coast. Potentially hitting there with full force. So many of their cyclones approach from that direction. From observations also i've noticed alot of them start there, head East, then around Samoaish longitude they do a U turn and swing back to the West and move that way slowly, WSW before slowly sliding off to the South after a day or two. But this double header, all bets are off. Could do anything. Hope the Fijians are spared.
Went down to Burleigh this morning to check the high tide carnage and to see if the pavilion would get washed away. Was cool to see and then a bit sad knowing that all up and down the East coast, there's going to be a lot of erosion and a lot of people with ruined days.
We've known about the greenhouse effect for 170 years and have done fuck all to fix the situation. It's getting hard to be optimistic about the future. I guess it's nearly time to sell up, take the family, find somewhere that's more equipped for crazy weather and live out my days.
Quick read before you hit the road elsewhere :
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_Had_Trouble_in_Getting_to_Solla_Sollew
Bribie...
Wow.
Bloody hell.
Nice yacht BTW.
Sprout checking the banks at Bribie
Haha I wish it were mine! Sorry... Joel Sheppard's photos.
Good day for a quick spin in the yacht
Blowin is that a still from that NZ customs boat somewhere off Stewart Is? That video makes me feel crook.
I’m not sure mate . Just grabbed it off google images.
She doesn’t look like a pleasure cruise on that day.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/80552572/watch-navy-battered-by-stor...
Found it - watch this
Lady Moura - now there's a familiar sight from a past life.
Am I wrong to picture you in a smoking jacket on the back deck surrounded by a bevy of bikini clad stunners all competing for your attention ?
Let's just say that I recall being stern-to in a 50m motor yacht at the Cannes Film Festival, Don "Miami Vice" Johnson on board, Harvey Weinstein at the end of the passerelle and Liz Hurley on the boat next door giving me a sly smile and a bit of an up and down.
I also remember getting wildly drunk, ruling the dance floor at a VIP party down at Port Pierre Canto, getting one hours' sleep and then vomiting in the sink up on the sundeck when I was supposed to be working.
I did shag my way through 3 stewardesses and 2 nannies on that boat too.
Andy dont forget the cook,she looks great now after having her eyes straightened and the 6 double chins removed......still has a photo of you on her cell wall.....ah the memories eh.
And thought about the ship's cat with the festering arsehole but had to draw a line somewhere.
Coffee date down that way this morning. Backwash shorey around the corner was fun to watch. Kids jumping off the rockwall straight into it. One poor young fella carted off in an ambo. Seen bigger surf before but jeez that tide's pushing the water in. Washing up over the dunes up the beach too. I'm sure there used to be sand here...
Byron's cooked.
waves breaking over the grass near the surf club and into the wreck (pool) carpark.
10 months of perfect conditions to rebuild that beach and nothing....now it's an open onslaught from la Nina.
the next week of nor-east winds won't help either.
sunshinecoastcouncil instagram
NORTHERN TIP OF BRIBIE ISLAND: Overtopping event this morning.
In technical terms, it’s called an 'over-topping' and has happened due to a combination of above average tides and significant rainfall. For a breakthrough to occur, a channel would need to form and be maintained.
Our crews are monitoring the situation, and will inspect more closely at low tide.
Council has been monitoring the changes in this area for some time and have focused our efforts on protecting Golden Beach.
We have a plan in place, with a long-term focus, which includes regular monitoring, beach renourishment along Golden Beach and the upgrade or new construction of protection structures such as rock walls and groynes. A groyne on the corner of Leichardt Street and The Esplanade, Golden Beach was upgraded in September this year.
Our management approach was developed following advice received from the Queensland Government in 2013, which was that a breakthrough of northern Bribie Island was part of the natural coastal processes.
NB: Any sand renourishment, dredging or construction activities must have Queensland Government approval for us to proceed.
Shared with permission from @Blueys_photography
any one thinking sucking the tits out of the middle bank would not lead to big problems
is not very savy
Can 2020 get much worse..?
Charles Darwins brother Eddy Darwin going for a body bash
Sustained swell event...
Evil Twin Cyclones Yasa & Zazu are ready to tag in...
https://www.fbcnews.com.fj/news/natural-disaster/tc-yasa-to-intensify-to...
TC Zazu jumped ahead and is predicted to smash into Tonga this arvo.
Great reporting & footage from the crew...
Salute wild Clubbie Surf/Beach vid ~ see: {Wahine Viking scoop Currumbin Kegz}
https://www.facebook.com/7NEWSGoldCoast/videos/712462139387208/
Scroll for more great footage...
https://www.facebook.com/7NEWSGoldCoast/?ref=py_c
news, juegasiempre, whole town praying for WSR Beach bully bar to wash away
Essential old world surf reservist loggerz defend Burley against wave pool invasion.
https://www.facebook.com/10NewsQLD/videos/302396241101291/
2016 ECL https://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/news/video-1296869/Waves-smash-beach-r...
Chanel 10 weather said to add a 'measured 60cm surge tide' onto yer readings & vidz
60cm is significant as yer woody will drop in on you whilst you ride out the storm!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-18/research-shows-cars-deadly-in-flo...
Mayor says to tether yer woody to the Beach Closed sign if ya wanna lose the fine.
Main Beach to Thompsons Rock flyover at low tide yesterday.
Beach Cafe hanging on at the two min mark.
Far out.
Belongil's historically been the focal point of erosion along that stretch, I wonder how it fared?
anyone have any pics up that way?
went there this morning for a Squizzy.
no photo it was bucketing down.
not much beach width to speak of but no great erosion scarp either, unlike Main Beach.
Looks like the patchwork of sand bags and rock walls is holding things together.
i guess elements has not washed away then... ;-)
Be interesting to see if that sand slug off the point gets broken up and the sand starts to accumulate back on the beach again.... but that will need some nice quiet conditions as opposed to the sustained easterly swell forecast for the next how many weeks?!
Forget the established Byron businesses , what about the itinerant amateur performers who normally ply their wares on that stretch of beach .
Wont anyone think of the fire twirlers !?
fire twirlers?
been a while since you been to Byron,
last fire twirler got run out of town 20 years ago.
town belongs to Hollywood celebs and every other rich Cnut now.
Byron is a theme park for the rich and famous.
They are all banished to Bruns now..
The story of King Cnut and the waves:
https://aclerkofoxford.blogspot.com/2013/11/cnut-and-waves.html
a lesson in humility
So it was the mob wielding the burning brands who got run out of town ?
Byron bucking convention till the end.
Someone get a message to Frankenstein and tell him we’ve found a safe haven . He’s probably on Facey.
Be fair on Blowin...freeride76 speaks of the Hippie Fire Twirlerz.
2000-Byron Hippie Fire Twirlers were kicked out & blazed a trail to Burleigh.
2001-Local Lorikeets get drowned out by Nude Rude Wicked Camper'z Bongos.
Sunday Moonrise /Solstice/Aquarians, bongo circle, slackerz, Fire Twirlerz, Zombies.
2009-
2015- Hippy blacks out after lighting up the sacred forbidden Kero Bong
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/burleigh-beach-fire...
2015 National Fire Twirling Titles
https://www.threeworlds.com.au/blogs/news/2015-national-fire-twirling-co...
2016 -
March 2018 - Apocalyptic Zombie trance off roasts pigz & evokes a Council flipflop.
Byron -Bundy-Burley-Bongo-Bong Off
https://www.echo.net.au/2018/04/hundreds-defy-new-rules-drumming-burleigh/
https://expressdigest.com/gold-coast-police-backed-away-from-hundreds-of...
40 year beach fire ban gives way to traditional fire link reconnecting to the Surf Line.
Combine recent upgraded Fire & surf / SUP skills & you got a show.
Line in the sand is crossed ...This photo was recently taken in neighbouring shire.
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/proxy/RkD56qcbSHjxBN1uaIrpu-FIGaCpcYYz...
(WSR / Saltwater Surf Fire Ceremonies?) Any Surf'n'Twirlerz amongst the crew.
Burleigh Beach Bar tickets for Rockbreak Fire Extravaganza? (Seemingly approved.)
Who's to be Oz first Firebrand Pro? Urban Surf Hero...Money for Jam.
https://www.surfertoday.com/images/stories/alisonteal.jpg
https://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/scaled/2014/05/07/article-2622201-1DA43F...
Burleigh beats
https://www.facebook.com/groups/123483477690702/
Byron's Hollywood Burlesque Starlet Fire Twirlerz (Each has $20m insurance cover)
https://www.cindersashes.com/byron-bay-fire-shows
http://www.puzzledust.com.au/fire-shows-and-performers.html
Cheapest Byron Fire Twirling ($5 for fuel) Random Bongo Circle Revival?
https://www.facebook.com/groups/147607425398216/
Byron Bongos $150 course Ltd VIP's ...or... you can just go Bongo at Burleigh?
https://www.facebook.com/events/421565049014617/?event_time_id=421565065...
Sand is back and in, much to the relief of the Clarke's Beach crew I'd imagine..
Dec 6
Dec 21
yeah, it's pushed a huge slug into the corner at Clarkes.
beach width in excess of 100m at low tide.
deus ex machina
Good little vid from Vox about beach erosion and the false security of ongoing beach nourishment programs.
Most examples are in Florida but the economic response is universal:
Could be a few nervous beach front owners looking at the current swell forecast if it is long duration.
The opening paragraph of this original article could be repeated, just substitute NewYears for Christmas.