Tahiti Pro Teahupoo Early Forecast

Craig Brokensha
Swellnet Analysis

For the punters who bay for blood, Teahupo 2019 may be a case of so close yet so far.

For the first time since 2014 a significant swell will fall inside the waiting period, however it'll be inside the waiting period for the Trials, not the main event.

There's a little confusion as to when the Trials will be held: Tahiti tourism says 15-17th, while Chris Cote is saying 16-18th in the latest Surf Breaks vlog. Either way, there's a large swell due on the 17th, right in the middle of this period.

Running just ahead of this swell is a mid-period southwest swell will fill in on Thursday the 15th, building to 4-6ft through the afternoon and then easing from a similar size on Friday morning.

Saturday the 17th is when the aforementioned swell will hit, likely pushing sets into the tow-only range, making it too big for the Trials which are paddle only but great viewing for those in the channel. This swell is being generated by a deep and powerful low that's formed off New Zealand's East Coast.

A fetch of gale to severe-gale SW winds will be projected towards the island, with core wind speeds reaching storm-force around the lows centre. The storm is forecast to project towards and then south of Tahiti with strength, producing a large, long-period and consistent SW groundswell for Saturday the 17th. This will be under a strong and pronounced node of the Long Wave Trough, the same one responsible for all the snow and cold weather across south-eastern Australia over the weekend.

With the long-period and west nature of the swell, it will be too big and heavy to paddle, coming in around the 12ft range, if not for the odd bigger cleanup. Conditions will be great as well with moderate to fresh E/NE-E trades.

If the trials window extends into Sunday the 18th, this will be the day to run them with clean, pumping and easing surf from the 8ft range as the swell tends a little more south-southwest in direction and drops in period.

Looking towards the main event (kicking off Wednesday the 21st), and the node of the LWT responsible for the trials swell will weaken and mobilise slowly east, with an upper ridge moving in behind it as another strong node develops across south-eastern Australia.

This isn't ideal at all with, with a couple of flukey swells sources on the cards for the first few days of the waiting period (3ft range) from weak fronts south-east of New Zealand, followed by mid-latitide cut-off lows under the influence of the ridge.

A slightly better S/SW groundswell may be seen to build on day three/four of the waiting period, but one of the aforementioned mid-latitude lows is forecast to develop to the south of the islands, bringing onshore winds out of the south along with a building, close-range mid-period S/SW swell. This doesn't leave too many options to run the competition through the first half of the waiting period.

The longer term outlook is a touch more positive though not great, with the strong node of the Long Wave Trough forming across south-eastern Australia early next week forecast to push slowly east and over New Zealand later next week. As it continues east into a position ideal for Tahiti it's forecast to weaken and become more zonal, which isn't great for swell production, but we'll keep a close eye on this over the coming week.

Teahupoo 16 Day Surf Forecast Graph
Teahupoo 16 Day WAMs

Comments

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean commented Thursday, 15 Aug 2019 at 10:06am

Code red trials,

Two foot main event.

Come on wossell
Shake up the format......... ..

ojackojacko's picture
ojackojacko's picture
ojackojacko commented Thursday, 15 Aug 2019 at 11:23am

completely right, LD. they appear happy to make changes (e.g. get rid of cloudbreak and trestles, re-introduce indo), but not the changes that actually matter (i.e. more flexibility in scheduling - similar to the BWWT; and smaller field or more sudden death for a two-day format). i can't help feeling dirff zik is going to do the sums one day and just pull the pin

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Thursday, 15 Aug 2019 at 12:10pm

This is not the first time the trials got pumping waves before a lame main event forecast. Pretty sure anyways.

I am the bone

groovie's picture
groovie's picture
groovie commented Thursday, 15 Aug 2019 at 1:25pm

Can't be too hard to push the trials fwd. a couple of days & start the main event in 8ft paddle in Teahupoo waves can it? What a spectacle & promo($$$$) that would be for the WSL. Who runs this show anyway, obviously not the surfers?

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay commented Thursday, 15 Aug 2019 at 2:53pm

That swell is peaking here at the moment, as seen from my lounge, cuppa in hand after a smoking surf.

jayet-010's picture
jayet-010's picture
jayet-010 commented Thursday, 15 Aug 2019 at 5:05pm

Faaaark me!!!

syril500's picture
syril500's picture
syril500 commented Thursday, 15 Aug 2019 at 5:31pm

Pumping

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Thursday, 15 Aug 2019 at 6:04pm

Aww Bro , that’s a mean as batch you’ve got there eh , cuz.

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay commented Thursday, 15 Aug 2019 at 6:03pm

Broooo!

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Thursday, 15 Aug 2019 at 6:04pm

How was Japan ?

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay commented Thursday, 15 Aug 2019 at 6:10pm

???

dan@shoreline's picture
dan@shoreline's picture
[email protected] commented Friday, 16 Aug 2019 at 8:43am

Quote from the movie "Boy" kiwi flick, well worth a look

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay commented Friday, 16 Aug 2019 at 8:46am

Ah, it's been a while.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Friday, 16 Aug 2019 at 4:31pm

Good pickup

dan@shoreline's picture
dan@shoreline's picture
[email protected] commented Friday, 16 Aug 2019 at 5:16pm

I like a good movie line, that ones a classic

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf commented Friday, 16 Aug 2019 at 3:59pm

Geez that it cranking. Is anywhere surfable with that size swell as it is dead offshore?

Spuddups's picture
Spuddups's picture
Spuddups commented Saturday, 17 Aug 2019 at 9:51am

We have our spots. ;-)

kang's picture
kang's picture
kang commented Thursday, 15 Aug 2019 at 2:25pm

So take Owen and out of my fantasy and replace with a Brazilian that can pop an air rev on 2ft mush.

Think I'll watch the trials, tune out for the main event.

Spuddups's picture
Spuddups's picture
Spuddups commented Thursday, 15 Aug 2019 at 3:11pm

Yep, as Island Bay has mentioned it's farken' pumping here today. Probably the most lined up big swell so far this year. The period went through the roof around 1pm here. I guess it'll take a few days to make its way up to Tahiti but when it does it's gonna be fireworks up there.

NEGATRON's picture
NEGATRON's picture
NEGATRON commented Saturday, 17 Aug 2019 at 1:03pm

Spud! Back on a forum?!? Hope all's well. And yeah clean as a whistle here also, really looking forward to see what it does in the topics!

Battery.

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay commented Saturday, 17 Aug 2019 at 3:39pm

Can't believe it just died (the old forum).

Was K holding, or too big?

NEGATRON's picture
NEGATRON's picture
NEGATRON commented Sunday, 18 Aug 2019 at 8:38am

Glad it died, wasted far too much time on it!

K to big...

Spuddups's picture
Spuddups's picture
Spuddups commented Sunday, 18 Aug 2019 at 9:45am

Good times on that old forum aye. It was like the Wild West at the start aye.

Andrew P's picture
Andrew P's picture
Andrew P commented Thursday, 15 Aug 2019 at 3:14pm

How big would you call those waves Island Bay? Double storey?

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay commented Thursday, 15 Aug 2019 at 5:35pm

The rock out the back is about 10m high. Huge (guessing 7-10m faces).

For some perspective, it's 300m from our place to the white house, and 700m from there to the wave.

Oceanliving9356's picture
Oceanliving9356's picture
Oceanliving9356 commented Thursday, 15 Aug 2019 at 5:02pm

The best surfers on the best waves, not if the WSL has anything to do with it

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Thursday, 15 Aug 2019 at 5:14pm

Is that a surf spot IB?

Yendor's picture
Yendor's picture
Yendor commented Sunday, 18 Aug 2019 at 8:33am

As far as it's surf spot status goes, Spuddups and IB are the only people I know who have ever even attempted to surf it. It's possible others have but word usually gets around pretty quickly. In certain swells and certain angles it looks more possible but usually by the time it reaches the size threshold required to make it more than a quick ride down to a long stretch of dry reef the other consequences of screwing it up become pretty intense. We all had a good laugh a few years back when it was included in a NZ surf guide based off an impressive photo. It even included information about favourable conditions for the break, although at that stage no one had been known to surf it, an awesome piece of fabrication.
As IB said if you were seriously keen to take it on you would probably need all of the the provisions he talked about or a reckless disregard for your own life.

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay commented Thursday, 15 Aug 2019 at 5:21pm

When it's this big, you could surf it if you had:
-loads of courage
-real big wave skills
-a skilled partner on a jet ski
-make that two skilled partners on skis

You can see the dry reef on the inside. Avoid at all cost.

Spuddups and I have both attempted it much much smaller, and it's alternately super shallow and very deep. And then that inside reef. Huge, and it might just be doable, but I would only ever contemplate towing it.

So to answer your question, yeah nah, possibly maybe.

Spuddups's picture
Spuddups's picture
Spuddups commented Thursday, 15 Aug 2019 at 5:42pm

Yeah, I paddled over there once when it was about half that size. Took off on a wave, made it to the bottom then ended up on the rocks. That was enough for me.

yahabo's picture
yahabo's picture
yahabo commented Thursday, 15 Aug 2019 at 7:22pm

fucks sake. Chopes is a waste of time. they never get good waves for the comp. Axe it and bring back cloudbreak.

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Thursday, 15 Aug 2019 at 8:09pm

Yep tough call needs to be made, scrap it or have a floating waiting period. When was the last time we got proper Chopes, the Kelly JJF semi final year?

sneakerset's picture
sneakerset's picture
sneakerset commented Thursday, 15 Aug 2019 at 8:10pm

That's one thumping swell hitting Wellywood Island Bay! Any lines wrapping into Seatoun that day?!!

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay commented Friday, 16 Aug 2019 at 8:48am

Didn't check - too busy elsewhere - but don't quite think it had enough size.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Thursday, 15 Aug 2019 at 8:19pm

The WSL couldn't organise a meat tray in an abattoir. Bring back Fiji and pair it with Chopes with a 24 day waiting period. It's very rare that both places are going to be crap at the same time in winter. This lack of mobility and fixed waiting periods results in 1-2 comps in good to great waves, 3-4 comps in average surf, and 5-7 in poor surf. It's just not working.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

belly's picture
belly's picture
belly commented Friday, 16 Aug 2019 at 8:49am

I agree the WSL need to do something, arguing about a point here or there for threading a 50m 3ft tube gets pretty tedious.

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf commented Friday, 16 Aug 2019 at 4:02pm

Yep not much of contest wave unless it is a death sentence.

The Fire's picture
The Fire's picture
The Fire commented Friday, 16 Aug 2019 at 5:19pm

Umm biggest ever cloudbreak comin up ...??

maaaan

Casp's picture
Casp's picture
Casp commented Friday, 16 Aug 2019 at 6:22pm

does anybody know who will be competing in the trials? or if it will be streamed? i cant seem to find much info on it...

Denyer's picture
Denyer's picture
Denyer commented Saturday, 17 Aug 2019 at 9:25am

I would also like to know if it is being streamed? Anyone?

dannyz's picture
dannyz's picture
dannyz commented Saturday, 17 Aug 2019 at 10:22am
Jono's picture
Jono's picture
Jono commented Saturday, 17 Aug 2019 at 4:25pm

Some heavy hitters in that list, trials could be more entertaining than the main event!

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak commented Saturday, 17 Aug 2019 at 7:19am

The dream tour has become a joke , if snapper isn’t held in February or March dont bother just can it , portugal is usually a close out , brasil is usually a two manoeuvre wave , Kelly’s wave pool sends me to sleep after 2 waves . WSL claims to be for the environment but now are switching from kremas to G-Land ! What sought of footprint will that leave ? The whole WSL tour needs a overhaul and complete change in direction, unless it’s pumping it’s a boring sport to watch with terrible commentary that dribbles on trying to “ entertain us “ it can be as boring and slow as test cricket. Maybe less events with longer waiting periods and a change in format needs to happen. One event in Hawaii and 3 in Australia is weird and why not start the year at pipeline in February and finish at sunset in December ? I remember when P.T. Won a world title with out winning a contest , l hope andino does the same to show everyone how flawed the world tour is.

Spuddups's picture
Spuddups's picture
Spuddups commented Saturday, 17 Aug 2019 at 9:53am

^Fark man, how dare you blacken the good name of Test Cricket by comparing it to WSL!

dannyz's picture
dannyz's picture
dannyz commented Saturday, 17 Aug 2019 at 11:44pm

looks like something semi decent at the end of the waiting period

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay commented Sunday, 18 Aug 2019 at 5:06am

Trials not running today. Too hairy..

Boogie_luv's picture
Boogie_luv's picture
Boogie_luv commented Sunday, 18 Aug 2019 at 5:32am

WSL Facebook page currently has live video.

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay commented Sunday, 18 Aug 2019 at 5:37am

Hmm. The Tahitian commentators said it was off. They might just be running live freesurf.

Boogie_luv's picture
Boogie_luv's picture
Boogie_luv commented Sunday, 18 Aug 2019 at 5:53am

Sorry, live free surf.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Sunday, 18 Aug 2019 at 5:20pm

Hows the size of the tow in wave...stab insta

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Sunday, 18 Aug 2019 at 5:21pm

So much bigger than anything else I've seen. Freak bomb.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Sunday, 18 Aug 2019 at 7:13pm

forey looks a bit brighter now ......mixed grill , not gourmet but enough to get the job done.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Sunday, 18 Aug 2019 at 7:55pm

The cuisine is much more to Fili's tastes.

Reefeater's picture
Reefeater's picture
Reefeater commented Monday, 19 Aug 2019 at 7:13am

Trials running today by the looks on the link provided above posts...

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound commented Wednesday, 21 Aug 2019 at 4:19pm

What’s the latest forecast?

Matb's picture
Matb's picture
Matb commented Wednesday, 21 Aug 2019 at 5:31pm

Yeah was thinking the same thing greyhound, mustn’t be good cause WSL haven’t said anything

Matb

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 21 Aug 2019 at 5:53pm

Will have an update tomorrow guys, there's a better swell now on the cards for the the middle of the waiting period, but before that average swells.

Spuddups's picture
Spuddups's picture
Spuddups commented Wednesday, 21 Aug 2019 at 5:55pm

Pretty much dead flat here at the moment which isn't a good sign for Tahiti. Looks like a decent swell for the middle of next week onwards though.

Matb's picture
Matb's picture
Matb commented Wednesday, 21 Aug 2019 at 7:07pm

Cheers Craig!

Matb