Margaret River Pro: Updated forecast

Stu Nettle
Swellnet Analysis

We're just one day out from the new and improved Margaret River Pro (now shark free!), and we've got a better handle on what competitors can expect.

The first day of the waiting period is tomorrow, Wednesday 29th, and organisers will rise to a new long-period S/SW groundswell which will provide good-sized sets at Main Break. The swell is courtesy of an intense polar low that produced a strong fetch of storm-force W/SW winds in WA's southern swell window last Friday (a little earlier than was forecast).

This swell should hit this afternoon (Tuesday), peak overnight and ease tomorrow from 4-6ft early in the morning on the first day of the waiting period. And the wind? Conditions are looking good for most of the day with an offshore E/NE breeze. We can't see any reason the comp won't kick off tomorrow.

Thursday still looks like a lay day with poor conditions under a strong N/NE breeze and small surf, only increasing later in the day.

A forecast W/SW groundswell for later Thursday and Friday morning has been downgraded a touch and only looks to come in at 5-6ft. Also, the wind won't be great through the morning with onshore S/SW breezes, though they'll edge more S/SE through the day. If the event organisers are desperate they could run at Main Break through the day.

The good news is our large swell for Saturday is still on track, and it's coming in hot from a very westerly direction. The source of this swell is a mid-latitude front spawning off the low linked to Friday's swell, riding north in latitude while projecting a fetch of W/SW gales through WA's western swell window (see image below).

The swell will arrive overnight Friday and should peak Saturday morning at 8-10ft across Main Break, easing through the afternoon and down further on Sunday from 6ft+.

Conditions on Saturday will be excellent with an offshore E/SE breeze, swinging E/NE and then lighter from the north into the afternoon. The swell and wind direction will have KP casting a keen eye across the bay to The Box. He might even taste test it himself...

Sunday morning will again see favourable N/NE winds but the swell will be on the ease and likely a tad too small for The Box.

Since the long range forecast was issued last Friday more activity has registered on the charts. A large long-period W/SW groundswell is now on the cards for Monday/Tuesday next week as a vigorous mid-latitude low develops between SW WA and Heard Island, projecting a fetch of storm-force W/SW winds directly at the Western Australian coast (see image below). 

Current projections have the swell building rapidly Monday from 6ft+ to 12ft+ into the afternoon, easing from a similar size Tuesday morning.

There's divergence on local wind scenarios, but a southerly flow is possible which would open up North Point as an option.

We'll keep a close eye on these developments, but with a conveyor belt of swells through the first half of the waiting period, and promising trends through the back half, the organisers will have plenty to cherry-pick.

We'll continue to keep an eye on this forecast in future updates.

Swellnet's Margaret River Forecast

Comments

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound commented Tuesday, 28 May 2019 at 11:08am

You should’ve MA 15+ this one Craig.
Gary G’s gonna have a field day.
Coming in hot,
Kp Tasting the box for himself. Etc etc.

channel-bottom's picture
channel-bottom's picture
channel-bottom commented Tuesday, 28 May 2019 at 11:17am

I hope we don't see any 'didn't bring big enough boards' excuses.

Also hope they get good North Point. Only problem I find with watching Box, I find it gets pretty repetitive, and I find it hard to see how the judges can judge the score of one deep barrel compared with another deep barrel.

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean commented Tuesday, 28 May 2019 at 11:20am

Well looks like the wosel will run the two days of non elimination in the best surf of the waiting period.
I find it annoying when they start in epic wave though finish in crud.

Brian from Brissy's picture
Brian from Brissy's picture
Brian from Brissy commented Tuesday, 28 May 2019 at 1:15pm

Overlapping heats wouldn't you think.. keramas was a missed opportunity and one I hope is not made again considering the smaller windows of opportunity... how big does it need to be for north point and what winds?

lampy's picture
lampy's picture
lampy commented Tuesday, 28 May 2019 at 2:23pm

Swell needed depends on the direction. More west and the lower the swell. With some west and a good period, 3m is enough to get it firing. Wind can be SSE all the way round to North East

Brian from Brissy's picture
Brian from Brissy's picture
Brian from Brissy commented Tuesday, 28 May 2019 at 2:28pm

Cheers Lumpy.. so 03/04 June could be at north point if it plays out the way it's forecast... if so work won't get much out of me those days.

lampy's picture
lampy's picture
lampy commented Tuesday, 28 May 2019 at 2:36pm

Could be ok Monday. The swell may be bigger than forecast

frog's picture
frog's picture
frog commented Tuesday, 28 May 2019 at 3:01pm

Shark forecast:

Moderate to heavy presence peaking during Medina's heats and each afternoon as the numbers of deep water stealth approaches grow attracted in by jetski motor vibrations through the day from a 10km catchment zone.

Frogg

redmondo's picture
redmondo's picture
redmondo commented Tuesday, 28 May 2019 at 3:33pm

Very exciting, got my john john banner ready to go. Does Jack Robo get a singlet?

Sandro gia's picture
Sandro gia's picture
Sandro gia commented Tuesday, 28 May 2019 at 6:42pm

When they cancelled margarets last year didn't medina and italo say they did not feel safe training and competing in the south west.
Medina also did say last year after the event was cancelled that he would skip the event in 2019 ,italo may have also hinted at skipping the event.
They should be bloody privileged to surf our Beautiful Powerful South West.

Faunt Leroy's picture
Faunt Leroy's picture
Faunt Leroy commented Tuesday, 28 May 2019 at 7:26pm

Just wondering why you have the winds on the 10th in your surf forecast as ESE when on your WAMS they clearly show a medium strength NNE?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 28 May 2019 at 7:45pm

The WAMs are sometimes lagging the forecast graph so that’d be the reason. 

tubeshooter's picture
tubeshooter's picture
tubeshooter commented Tuesday, 28 May 2019 at 7:40pm

haha frog.. was thinking along the same lines. It will be interesting to see how the WSL handles the 'threat' this year, .. play it down or overkill?

Brian from Brissy's picture
Brian from Brissy's picture
Brian from Brissy commented Tuesday, 28 May 2019 at 8:05pm

Jack and Ziets against Filipe. Please run at the box, poor old Burrito Burrito....

wbat's picture
wbat's picture
wbat commented Tuesday, 28 May 2019 at 8:36pm

I heard lefties got cleared out by something big two days ago.

wbat's picture
wbat's picture
wbat commented Tuesday, 28 May 2019 at 8:45pm

The last two days have been perfect. Bit smaller today but yesterday was pumping and so clean.

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror commented Wednesday, 29 May 2019 at 6:26am

Re the sharks.
I heard an ex vicco now ments man was surfing main break on his own only a few weeks back. He got a love tap from a big white girl. Apparently, after knocking him off it was between him and his board for a while.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Wednesday, 29 May 2019 at 6:45am

Oh man that’s fucked

kookfactor's picture
kookfactor's picture
kookfactor commented Wednesday, 29 May 2019 at 9:31am

Id call BS on that 1, cause you never get mainbreak to yourself, and there are eyes everywhere lately. Its been pumping and avg crew out at least 20 most days. Nah.

lampy's picture
lampy's picture
lampy commented Wednesday, 29 May 2019 at 11:49am

I live and have surfed in the region for 20 years and have never seen a shark. Either im not good at spotting them or some people are overplaying the presence. Every 2nd
surf in the NW you could nearly spot a shark

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror commented Wednesday, 29 May 2019 at 12:45pm

I was told second hand
Both blokes don’t bullshit about these sort of things though.

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror commented Wednesday, 29 May 2019 at 12:46pm

I was told second hand
Both blokes don’t bullshit about these sort of things though.

Faunt Leroy's picture
Faunt Leroy's picture
Faunt Leroy commented Wednesday, 29 May 2019 at 2:09pm

The vicco bloke is a bullshit artist, also doesnt mind slinging shit at peoples parents, dead or alive.