Swell to the west, swell to the east
Autumn is really kicking into gear around Australia with both the east and west coasts due to be hit by large swells over the coming week.
An intense Tasman Low is currently producing large waves across Southern NSW but it'll be overshadowed by a better quality, long-period southerly groundswell due next week. The swell will push up from deep in the Southern Ocean, past the East Coast early next week, en route to Fiji Thursday.
It was just over a month ago that a large swell hit Cloudbreak, just before Severe Tropical Cyclone Pam glanced the islands while devastating Vanuatu. Laura Enever, Alex Gray and Josh Ku chased the swell and scored great waves with hardly a crowd as most of the pros were tied up at the Quiksilver Pro.
Next week's swell will be of similar origins.
The source of the swell will be a wide-spanning and vigorous polar low developing under Tasmania. The catalyst for this explosive polar low will be a strengthening node (peak) of the Long Wave Trough moving slowly across the southern Tasman Sea, stalling over New Zealand this weekend.
This will direct a fetch of severe-gale S/SW winds from below Tasmania up through the southern Tasman Sea and across New Zealand through the weekend.
A large and powerful southerly groundswell will be generated for Tasmania and the Southern NSW coast (in the 8ft range at south facing breaks), before pushing onwards to Fiji and namely Cloudbreak on Thursday. 8-10ft waves are expected with bigger bomb sets in Fiji but local winds look to be the fly in the ointment. A tropical low and possible tropical cyclone is forecast to drift south-east from Vanuatu, moving to the south of Fiji as the swell arrives producing unfavourable and fresh north-east winds. There's still movement surrounding the local winds and this all depends on the movement of the tropical low.
Only a day earlier and on the other side of the Australian continent a large, powerful south-west groundswell is due to fill in for the opening day of the Margaret River Drug Aware Pro.
This will be linked to another (seperate) node of the LWT moving east through the southern Indian Ocean over the weekend, directing a vigorous polar low from south-east of South Africa, all the way over to Western Australia.
Winds within this low are forecast to reach the storm-force range, producing a very large, long-period SW groundswell, peaking at 10-12ft in Margaret River with larger sets likely at deep water reefs. The swell will then push on to South Australia Thursday and Victoria Friday.
Conditions look excellent for Western Australia with straight offshore easterly winds Wednesday ahead of an afternoon sea breeze.
We're also likely to see a secondary large but slightly smaller SW groundswell for Friday from a secondary polar low, but we'll continue to keep a close eye on this.
In any case there'll be no lack of swell for the Drug Aware Pro as the westerly storm track finally kicks into gear. //CRAIG BROKENSHA
Comments
Hope the pro's are ready for 10 - 12 foot this time. I think any criticism over the suitability of Margs as a venue will be put to bed when the solid, offshore stuff shows up!
I'm hoping for 6 foot box. We have had 2 comps of turn after turn. Time for some barrels.
Well said channels
Will we see an indo forecast before next week mate? wams looking the goods for my trip but your assurance will make me feel better!!!
Yep, will have one up soon, looking the goods with this swell hitting Friday the 17th!!
and thats our first morning waking up after the overnighter. NW winds forecast (for now). i'd hate to score epic HTs on day 1 haha.
Yeah that TC possibly forming up that way may create some funky winds.
Here's the Bali update: Slow period ahead of large swell Friday week
It would be great to see the tour surfers take note of this forecast and arrive ready for the swell and the contest with appropriate equipment. It's been a bit of an embarrassment in the past few years with these guys with an endless supply of boards and the worlds best shapers on call rocking up to 6foot plus Margs (wa size) with nothing more than a fricken 6'6 with a 4ounce glass job.
Boys! The swell has been forecast! You have the time! You have the resources! No excuses! No repeat of the shameful (for some) Cloudbreak day.
Box will be too big. NP won't happen. It's gonna be BIG MargaretRiver lefts. Bring the right boards.
(Maybe hit up a local shaper, there's plenny that'll sort ya out. Mat Manners, AlBean, Dave Mac, Nathan Rose, Delta , PE.). Maurice Cole or Simon Anderson too.
They would all have there Hawaii boards still wouldn't they ...stored at home,get them freighted to W.A.
EG why would NP not happen? Forecast looks like good double-overhead waves there. Has there been any word from anybody on how the preference for each venue will be decided?
Personally I think I would rather see the pros tackle the sneaker sets at big Main Break, either way it will be fun to watch. With a bit of west in the swell there look like there will be some good big lefts for day one. Hope the forecast rings true...
It might happen monk, but I hope it doesn't. I'd rather surf it myself and watch all the local specialists do their thing while the visiting pros get some scraps or perhaps a bomb or two. WAY more entertaining than a two man heat and hundreds of "fans of pro surfing" trampling over a fragile area that's trying to recover from a recent bushfire. Plus all the other hype and bullshit that comes with it. No reason to move from all the infrastructure at Margs if it's offshore, clean and "contestable". Lack of mobile reception in the Bay is an issue too. Though I did notice a temporary tower set up on a trailer at the GT shop yesterday which is a bit of a worry.
Do the wsl have the go ahead for np?was under the impression was not mobile box the only alternative. Mainbreak only break in area consistent at all sizes.
Don't think we're gonna see any "proper" NP anyway.
Fuck the wsl take the comp to south point .
Np, really? since when is the whole coast a back up option. Who is behind this crap, is it this surfing margaret river clowns whoever they are.
Yeh agree ks they cant have it at a right . Margs is for goofys & nats fair play . But huzzas then if main too big
Would be great to see them fuck the comp off altogether for good. But I believe they are locked in to 2 more years as a top 35 event then it's back to a QS. That's 300?! or so
hungry (mostly Brazillian) egos and their cling-ons frothing around between the Capes for a few weeks in prime time. Thanks WSL, SurfingWA and WA Govt . Sell it $$$$$$ at all cost. Sell the region. Sell surfing. Fuck cunts, the surf's crowded enough already! Haven't you corpo pricks got enough fucken money!
And your gunna love that it's all funded by your very own tax dollar Eugene, like treading on a bee with two stingers
Live down that way Eugene? Long time local or Perth blow in?
For an area that thrives on the agricultural income and the tourist dollar, 10 days of pro surfers and the spectators who go down there is pretty helpful to the locals. And like any event, once they get knocked out they tend to move on to the next location.
Grew up in Marg"s area. Remember a day in about 1978 i was about 15. The swell was huge, clean conditions offshore blue sky, remember sitting at the top of the point in front of the little dirt carpark as it was then, watching these little black dots screaming down the face of these huge perfect barrelling lefts, it was as though these waves were breaking half way out to the horizon. There was some sort of wa comp on, remember reading in a paper it was 18 feet with bigger sets. Until bells in 81 this day was regarded as the biggest waves in aust. surfing history. Id like to see that again.
Brian that woulda been first classic contest .
10 days . Wrong .
Eugene, so if the forecast comes true and Margs is crankin and the pros are ripping apart monster waves..................you wont be there watching or at home watching online ?
Yeah I'll watch some highlights. I'll either be working or surfing elsewhere.
Was there last year for the comp and surfed Gas bay with only couple out..dunno what your that fussed over Eugene?brings heaps of hot chicks down your way which I woulda thought was a good thing haha! Its been goin on for along time this comp and only now you are whinging? gimme break!!
It goes on longer from the perspective of a local surfer whos fav spot was barred
Been seeing you a lot on Instagram lately Caml. Your pretty famous on that thing! Possibly the most tubed man in oz?
Nice work!
Unfortunatley we cant stop the comp coming and the local areas need the income... its their last big win until the doom of winter hits and its only the locals cash coming in...
If u know the area u shouldnt have a problem getting waves...
No matter how deep u take off at NthPoint, always look left because Caml will already be slotted and coming through fast ha ha ha
i like the way they bring in a portable mobile boost tower for the comp but not year round and especially fire season.....
WTF???
They spent all that money making Surfer point a viewing area leave the comp there...
all ya gonna see is black dots on a wave anyway... Shit spot to have a comp..
Nar not local. Moved here late nineties. Surfed here since mid 80's. Perth blow down.
Models still shaky with regard to winds. They have swung back real good for Cloudbreak. Very light SE, and gone tits up for SA sorry Caml, but early days
Yeah, and will continue to move around a touch I think with all the tropical activity in the Indian Ocean.
Definitely an improvement for Cloudbreak but it won't be perfect with those SE winds having some strength. Restaurants be nice though.
Still light but. Looks like the trades are seriously back the following week though. Resturants is a chattery fucker with those trades, best not have them at all. Bad enough paddling against the tide as it drains and getting blown out to see too.
Have updated the WA forecast here: Biggest thing to note is the possiblity of an oversized S/SW groundswell Saturday week. Watch this space!
Large back to back swells from Wednesday
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Craig the 3rd swell of them all another week out haha
The margs comp is trying to appeal to the bwt instead of swt
I heard there was a 16th swell arriving in 2-3 months! should be light ne winds and mid to high tide, sunny day also.
Gold
Dont talk that swell up yet,looking abit to much south in that one period looks good though