Rip Curl Pro: The outlook has improved
Good news for the Rip Curl Pro: the surf forecast has just got a whole lot better.
Up until now, the long range outlook for Bells Beach has been marred by poor winds, and also a lack of sizeable swells. However, we’ve just reviewed the latest model guidance and there are major improvements in store for next week.
For the short term, Good Friday and Easter Saturday are still looking dicey, with fresh southerly winds expected to veer easterly: the Surf Coast’s devil wind. There’ll be plenty of small to moderate surf but with next week starting to shape up nicely, it’s likely that event organisers may give these days a wide berth.
Sunday looks like we’ll see a rapid improvement with winds swinging to the west as a trough crosses the coast, whilst an unrelated new groundswell fills into the coast. There may be some easterly wobble through the lineup but conditions should improve with each passing hour.
But, it’s the period from Monday onwards where we’re looking at a marked improvement in the surf outlook.
First of all, swell prospects have improved thanks to a slight northward shift in the forecast position of the large blocking high to the west of the state. This should allow a conveyer belt of polar lows to track a little closer to the mainland, which should increase surf size potential.
Additionally, the strength of this polar progression has been upgraded. We’re looking at fluctuating SW groundswell from Sunday thru’ Tuesday between 3ft and maybe 4ft (Tuesday being the biggest day of the three), ahead of a slightly larger swell on Wednesday that should reach 4-5ft by the afternoon.
Winds are looking generally OK, with nor’westers each morning ahead of afternoon sou’westers. Tuesday’s early offshores may only last a short period, but as we’ve seen this afternoon, even fresh south-westerly winds remain workable at Bells Beach.
At this stage, Thursday morning looks really good with easing swell offering early 4-5ft sets, and winds holding from the north-west. Conditions will become bumpy again into the afternoon with a shallow SW change.
And looking even further ahead - a deep low trailing at the back of the frontal progression has been regularly upgraded over the last few model runs, and if everything comes together we could see a final pulse of 4-6ft surf on Friday, with favourable winds to boot. We’ll continue to keep monitoring these developments and will update in the notes below.
Comments
EC might have been on the money then for the final day or so?
Great to see that high pressure forecasted to shift north. Cold nights with morning land breezes. Low tides in the morning too.
Still not too much short-term (sat-tues) joy, but at least there's some potential at the very end of the waiting period.
If that forecast holds, it won't be epic, but it won't be a farce.
Hmmm..I still think there is a window tomorrow....lite winds low tide could be 4 hrs of comp.....
Sunday looks OK....winds west....Monday also looks OK winds and swell...
Tues/Weds/Thursday look write offs because of the strong onshore winds....even beyond the winds are not great...
Agree regarding Tuesday now, but there was only a short window in any case.
Wednesday should see 3 or so hours of morning W/NW offshore and then Thursday is still looking really fun with a longer lived W/NW'ly through the morning. Friday does looke average as winds swing around to the SE.
According to BOM, yesterdays max. temp in the Torcool area was about 15 & with the howling southerly blowing the apparent temperature would've been more like 10. At least the water is relatively warmish 18 or so.
So a question for those of you that live in the Torcool area or have spent any time in that neck of the woods.
If yesterday was a normal mid-week day without the contest being on, say in 2 weeks time, would you be surfing Bells? I suspect it's the best of a very bad bunch during such conditions but would anyone otherwise actually bother? Specially given there's been a few decent waves around the joint in the previous week or so, so there'd have been no need for a paddle in desperation.
I actually feel sorry for these guys & girls having to surf yesterday. It's not as if this is happening in Indo or someplace where warm water could make it a whole lot more fun than it might be otherwise. Most of the pro surfers come from places a whole lot warmer than Victoria too so there's more reason they may prefer to have given yesterday a miss. Do they get any say in it?
And it's not on today. Yet. Perhaps not so good for the revenue raising at Bells. Who gets those gate fees anyway?
cheers
Torcool should read tortool my friend. Place is overridden with tools, chumps and surf industry retail heroes. Some real GC's sprinkled around though.
Fairy Nuff. From my experience there is certainly some truth in your comment. Pretty much the same as anywhere I'd imagine? Torcool is a bit more subtle I guess.
But would you have surfed Bells yesterday had you been in that neck of the woods? It just looked a bit crappy to me. And cold.
I would have surfed it for sure. Looked really fun and bowly despite the wind. And, on days like that hardly anyone surfs it so your wave count would be much higher.
I would have really enjoyed surfing Bells yesterday. I reckon biggish, lumpy, windblown waves can be a lot of fun. Feels a bit primal and requires more thinky. And everybody gets waves, rather than just waiting for sets with a small obvious take off point and with a few controlling wave selection.
Fairy nuff Ben but if you set your standards low enuff it's easy to get your wave count up. I guess I have a higher priority with regard to having fun. It just didn't look like fun to me. Obviously if the waves are really good & there's a million blokes you're not going to have fun either so it's a matter of finding the right balance.
Your comment Wally is spot on. Any chance you're from Tassie? Temperature plays a big part in it for me too. I'm getting softer as I get older.
It also depends on how many decent waves you've had in the not too distant past. The further ago your last decent surf was the lower your standard of what is acceptable becomes.
We're all different.
Fairy Nuff, I'm from Queensland so, I must admit, I didn't even think about the temperature. Also, from a Qld rating, Bells yesterday would be considered a big swell.
If snapper/kirra would be towing that
Which is why the worlds best surfers generally come from warmer climates. It's a heap easier to have fun & therefore practice if you're not freezing your bum off. Don't have to hit up your oldies for a wetty either when you're a kiddy. That's my theory anyway.
Gone a bit off topic here now.
Hopefully the waves at Bells do come good as predicted. Everyone wins that way.
Fairy I'm not sure what your on about . It's not as if its early August .!!!
The water temp still isn't much lower than its peak in Feb .
Obviously not a mehican Southey
Just wait till margies starts and that's going to sort the men from the boys. Atleast we will see waves over 6 feet.
Oh no is Margs is still a top on the tour…..I can understand keeping Bells for the historical context, and having one kinda fat bumpy cold water wave on tour to mix it up, but two in a row?
They seriously should ditch that comp and bring Keramas back.
We want to these blokes challenged.solid mainbreak will do that.lets hope for some beasts to sort some cunts out,see how there "big"6'8's go.
Best surfers in the world! And some cunt thinks they can't surf? Take your hand off your cock and get a grip! Fucking loser!
apologies stu for cross pollination ...........
" www.coastalwatch.com/surfing/189/big-waves-require-big-boards "
Paul Morgan is no slouch in the fitness stakes especially paddling strength ,
if KRS can paddle into something like that on his Wizard sleeve i'll eat my hat .
caml i'm sure you'd have something to say on this topic , especially main break .
Settle down chicko you must be a groupie.get down there for some autograghs.
Settle down chicko you must be a groupie.get down there for some autograghs.
Putting into plane perspective there southy.
Putting into plane perspective there southy.
Parp
Looking pretty nice this morning, seems to be 3-4ft and the offshore breeze kicked in earlier that expected (around 9pm last night) so it should be pretty smooth on top.
Interestingly, no major signs of notable swell at Cape Sorell today (using current obs as a guide, you'd expect it to be closer to 2-3ft). Even the Pt Nepean buoy doesn't look that impressive either, although swell periods (Tsig) do look strong for a smallish groundswell.
Jeez that last wave of Taj's was very nice. Solid 4ft and perfectly clean.
Dunno how Surfline are measuring wave heights - they're calling this 3-5ft on the face but it's easily a foot or two overhead.
Yes the Swellnet Torquay report is only saying 2-3ft?
Bells itself is usually a foot bigger than the rest of the Surf Coast (the surf report is for the area).
OK thanks Ben - it does look bigger than 2-3ft for sure.
Here 'tis:
What days are lookin good to run or finish this week benny..thinkin about a day run?
Nah, I'm not heading down this year.
Not sure how they'll run the rest of the event, as the models are changing a little regarding the timing of Tuesday's change and the lingering effects through the rest of the week. But there will be plenty of swell and a relocation won't be necessary whatsoever.
Interesting to see no comp yesterday....from midday on was really good surf till dark and a lot bigger than today........and this morning was really good fun on Low tide....but now..onshore high tide Rincon.....and will be horrible from 3.00pm onwards..
tomorrow bit smaller but cleaner...victory at sea in Tuesday and onshore for the rest of the waiting period.....with Thursday lite onshores and head high......and ...???
Big cold and onshore! It sells wetsuits! We love it! Ha ha!
Off topic , but who wants to talk about shit bells .
The LWT is looking favourable for the MR pro . Early days but decent 4-6 ft swell second day of waiting period . And then perhaps a serious swell 5-6 days later . But most importantly a fair chance of a light wind regime to accompany any decent swell that comes through . The later date this year should almost guarantee land breezes and longer through the day in said above light wind period . The only thing is that potential bigger swell looks fairly SSW in direction and mid range periods , but a secondary swell back to back off the first may come through in time late in the waiting period with more west to it , and longer period .
Have heard also that northies given all clear if the waves turn on. Swell charts do look promising but just have to wait and see how it pans out. We have weird weather in store for this week, rare North swell with strong onshores.
Yeah from a Tropical Cyclone pushing down from the north west.. Small with cyclone swell late week
Was looking at that also southey.heard something about them wanting to run as much as possible at box?but spose conditions will be a big factor . Big mainbreak should be what its all about looks like they might get a bit.
Love how the new home of Surfing Fox Sports showing 'every event' 'every wave', but only switched on with the finish of the Houston Golf Open with 12 minutes to go in Heat 2 Round 3. Did Kelly win?? Better check by clickin on wsl. Guess that's what they want.
Some ok waves rolling through.... Some swillnuts would be pissed about that lol
The waves are good today and its been pumping in vicco last two weeks, especially PI, Gippsland and western vic. Everyone is just playing it down, no waves in vicco std operating procedure sheepy
You're a funny guy, mick ;)
pretty rare day in hell today SD .
that low has caught everyone by surprise . It was forecast to really advance straight Nthwards up into riverland , but if anything overnight its even retro graded a little NNW , and also rather than pushing through into a central location well inland its wrapped up a little tighter with the centre looking near Warnambool as I type . So bells has currently seen an increase off that fast advancing west flank of Southerlies currently battering SA . Rare to get swell obtuse off such a system . Not unheard of though , more like a summer Cut off . And at some stage the comp. site will cop a flogging ( rain and strong onshores ) later today . Until then it could get better , but I would hazard to guess that due to the uniqueness of the swell direction , it won't improve as much as it usually would on out going tide late today . winds could co operate till late today . !!! WSL scores some luck .
Southey, today's swell is just another pulse from all the polar frontal activity late last week and into the weekend (mentioned above and in my Friday Vicco notes).
The fetch off the trough has only just moved into the Surf Coast's swell window (aimed more away from it than anything) around 8-9am this morning and the wind strengths (20-25kt+) are not strong enough to generate the long lines of groundswell pushing into the Surf Coast.
The trough is a prick to forecast though. EC, ACCESS G have it well and truly in before dawn tomorrow, but GFS is still stalling it resulting in variable breezes for a few hours during the morning.
Will have to keep a close eye on local observations for a possible small window of clean conditions tomorrow morning.
Also, had a similar but stronger system the Thursday before the comp kicked off.
my post had more to do with the local winds ( or lack of them ) , but we'll see about the swell . if its purely long range swell activity then it should continue to really drop out during today .
Always the way when these systems stall to the west. And no this swell is holding in all day.
if the centre stays so tight a system, stalls long enough and critically can stay over water . then outside chance of a micro system ala Sydney to Hobart '98 low .... that generated a pretty wicked wind swell .
All bets off , a new LLCC is due to form in the NE of the state in the next few hours .
Still there would have been some unexpected good waves nearby , but for now I'm sure the circus can't wait to get to or start moving towards WA .
hahahah stupe . power to you
Strange things happening in this thread: when someone is an abusive cock their messages somewhow go missing!
Take the hint fella.
I hope that was not me Stu!
I try my utmost to have some kind of respect on here, there are some nice blokes on here with great info at hand ;)
Nah Welly, not you mate.
Hey stu I have no issue with stupe venting . It's just the Internet .
If anything deleting it only makes me look like I'm talking to myself ( again ) ! ;-)
Besides I'm big enough and ugly enough to take criticism , it's not as if he'd get away with it face to face . Let 'em have their say , kind of was like he took a shot at himself .
Mind you this is your site to do as u wish .
We all know how it works on here, the parry and thrust of argument, back and forth shit stirring etc etc, but he was just going way over the mark in terms of ad hominem attacks - playing the man not the ball - and he was doing it across a few threads.
I like the banter and arguments as much as the next person but there's gotta be a line. He was warned a few times, privately and publicly, but kept going. You may not have seen most of his posts cos I had to delete them.