Swell abounds for Easter 2014

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)
Swellnet Analysis

It has to be said, if you don't score decent waves this Easter, you're not trying hard enough!

The Australian continent will be bathed in swell ranging from the large and dangerous in Western and Southern Australia, to the still solid but more sublime on the East Coast.

Friday will probably be outside the limit of most surfers across exposed spots along the Western Australian coast as the biggest swell this year impacts the state. The polar storm responsible for the swell is generating winds in the 35-45kt range that will persist for longer than three days while projecting itself up towards the Australian continent. The resultant swell should peak at 12-15 foot across the Margaret River region, with even larger waves expected at offshore bommies.

Moderate offshore winds will create excellent conditions so even if you don't get out on Friday it will be amazing viewing from the safety of a headland. Afternoon southerly sea breezes will focus attention into the more sheltered and manageable bays and points. Perth is looking good with less size to 3-4 foot, but you'll have to find a bank handling the size.

The rest of the weekend will see more manageable amounts of swell with morning offshore SE winds.

Western Australia's large swell will make its way across to South Australia and Victoria on Saturday. In South Australia variable winds should assist in providing good waves across both the Mid and South Coasts.

The Rip Curl Pro at Bells Beach should see good surf with 6 foot+ of groundswell filling in during Saturday. Winds should be favourable from the west early in the morning, but a swing to onshores before lunch will spoil the peak of the swell. Sunday is looking much better with a dropping swell and morning offshore.

Other Victorian exposed locations across the state will be too large and onshore Saturday, so focus your attention to the Surf Coast throughout the first half of the long weekend with that predominant westerly airstream. Monday should offer more options across the state though as straighter N/NW winds develop ahead of an approaching cold front.

The South Arm in Tassie will see some of this large westerly swell sneaking in on Saturday but early onshore winds look to spoil the party. Look out for a late swing to the W/NW opening up a few protected locations for business. Sunday and Monday will offer much better conditions though with a touch less size around 2ft.

The East Coast from Byron Bay south should still be under the effects of the Tasman Low that's been sitting in the Tasman Sea since the weekend. Moderate levels of SE groundswell will continue across exposed spots with favourable offshore winds, but come Saturday a much stronger pulse of E/SE groundswell should arrive.

This will be produced by one final blast of the Tasman Low during Thursday, with a phenomenal fetch of 35-60kt winds forecast to be produced out of New Zealand's Cook Strait (the passage between New Zealand's North and South Islands) as ex-Tropical Cyclone Ita is absorbed into the storm.

The Southern NSW Coast should see a peak in size through Saturday morning to 5-6 foot across exposed beaches with larger 8ft sets at offshore reefs (4-6 foot across Tassie's East Coast), with a touch less size on the Northern NSW Coast. The Gold and Sunny Coasts aren't expected to see much above 3 foot on the beaches, with larger and more powerful surf at exposed spots.

The E/SE swell will fade rapidly through Sunday but a solid new Southerly swell is expected across south facing beaches from Byron south under favourable offshore winds, topping off a great weekend of surf.

So there you have it, a jam packed Easter Long Weekend of waves. Just remember to stay within your limits if you plan on tackling some of the larger stuff and show some extra patience with the holiday crowds. //CRAIG BROKENSHA

Comments

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Wednesday, 16 Apr 2014 at 1:21pm

Good news for modern man Craig.

evosurfer's picture
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evosurfer Wednesday, 16 Apr 2014 at 1:28pm

And right now im off to Bali with family. Bummer im going to miss some all time waves.

Craig's picture
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Craig Wednesday, 16 Apr 2014 at 1:29pm

Actually Evo, you're gonna have to man up, Indo is going to get smacked as well. Here's a forecast I did yesterday: http://swllnt.com/1gxQz0v

stunet's picture
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stunet Wednesday, 16 Apr 2014 at 1:36pm

Ha ha...out of the frying pan into maxing Outside Corner.

scoopmaster's picture
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scoopmaster Wednesday, 16 Apr 2014 at 2:00pm

It would be a big gamble to not run the red bull cape fear event this saturday. I'd expect 6-8' sets from the ESE with light offshore winds and sunny skies. On the other hand Mark Matthews and co may be eyeing a trip to west oz for the 15 foot offshore conditions.

Craig's picture
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Craig Wednesday, 16 Apr 2014 at 2:08pm

Yeah it will be a perfect size, as you said, 6-8ft and clean.

stunet's picture
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stunet Wednesday, 16 Apr 2014 at 2:09pm

Good point Scoopmaster. One thing though, Cape Solander hasn't broken well during this latest swell event. For some reason the Cape has been weird yet Middles - just 50m up the coast - has been pumping. It's been like this every day since Sunday so there's an underlying condition of this swell - period? direction? - that isn't agreeing with Cape Solander.

Granted Saturday's swell will be different in nature but the organisers, one of whom is Mark Mathews and has been surfing Middles everyday since Sunday, have to make a call in advance and they'd know the Cape hasn't been delivering.

Craig's picture
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Craig Wednesday, 16 Apr 2014 at 2:14pm

This E/SE groundswell will be from a much better direction, so it should perform a lot better than seen through the current swell event.

scoopmaster's picture
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scoopmaster Wednesday, 16 Apr 2014 at 2:51pm

I could say the same for shark island Stu, at least from what I've seen on the webcam. I'd say the main culprit though has been too much south in the wind.

stunet's picture
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stunet Wednesday, 16 Apr 2014 at 3:00pm
scoopmaster's picture
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scoopmaster Wednesday, 16 Apr 2014 at 3:05pm

yep can't complain about those.

memlasurf's picture
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memlasurf Wednesday, 16 Apr 2014 at 2:23pm

What is the direction of the swell for Victoria Craig? Has it got much south in it or is it dead south west?

Craig's picture
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Craig Wednesday, 16 Apr 2014 at 2:37pm

All W/SW memla, not much south in it at all.

memlasurf's picture
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memlasurf Wednesday, 16 Apr 2014 at 2:54pm

Bummer as there are a few spots which may have been real good with more south in it and those winds. Thanks.

paintz's picture
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paintz Wednesday, 16 Apr 2014 at 2:31pm

You goin gnorth or south Craig? Cenny should be firing if your up my way

Craig's picture
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Craig Wednesday, 16 Apr 2014 at 2:38pm

Staying local Paintz, was gonna go south but I think the holiday crowds will be all over it. Been away a bit so will just hang home.

paintz's picture
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paintz Wednesday, 16 Apr 2014 at 2:45pm

Ok mate. found some gems lately

caml's picture
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caml Thursday, 17 Apr 2014 at 12:07am

Xxl size surf more like 25ft if u know where to find it & Matthews probably will

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 17 Apr 2014 at 7:08am

Yep, totally, and good luck in getting a slice yourself!

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Thursday, 17 Apr 2014 at 5:32am

Agreed Camel - should see surf in the 25th range at some of the offshore reefs. I hope you'll be there!

mibs-oner's picture
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mibs-oner Thursday, 17 Apr 2014 at 6:44am

yay for holiday crowds

caml's picture
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caml Thursday, 17 Apr 2014 at 11:25am

Hopefully we see some fotos from w.a. Big wave breaks like we did with hercules xxl swell . Im tippin the mythical wave south west reef will be 25-30 ft & some of the worlds best brave chargers are flying in to parachute out of a airplane to tow into it . Its full moon so mark visser could night surf

groundswell's picture
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groundswell Thursday, 17 Apr 2014 at 2:38pm

Camel ,are you in margs area or so
South oz at the moment?

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Thursday, 17 Apr 2014 at 6:14pm

Evosurfer don't look back cobber, good times ahead ! Choose your spot right and you could get the wave of your life in the next few days . Good luck.

barley's picture
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barley Thursday, 17 Apr 2014 at 6:50pm

has Australia ever had this much swell action all over at once? winds are predicted to get better and better..yowzas!!

lostdoggy's picture
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lostdoggy Thursday, 17 Apr 2014 at 7:02pm

I think Easter 2012 everywhere pumped as well.

barley's picture
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barley Thursday, 17 Apr 2014 at 6:51pm

I remember once maybe 3-4-5 yrs ago pretty much all of oz was 1ft..north south east and west!!

caml's picture
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caml Friday, 18 Apr 2014 at 6:07am

Xxl swell is already booming . Albany bouy [email protected] still rising , quite thrilling to think whats going to happen

caml's picture
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caml Friday, 18 Apr 2014 at 6:10am

Groundswell sorry but i dont know who u are so ...

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 18 Apr 2014 at 7:20am

Wow, that is scary Camel! 

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Friday, 18 Apr 2014 at 7:24am

Naturaliste buoy is a shade under 5m ('swell height') with peak swell periods of 20 seconds. And winds are light E/SE. There will be some massive waves about the outer reefs today!

mick-free's picture
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mick-free Friday, 18 Apr 2014 at 8:05am

Good luck Camel, stay safe. Hope you get that Al Byrne out and it stays in one piece!

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Friday, 18 Apr 2014 at 12:56pm

Wow, there's a very big difference between the CW and SN forecasts for Bells this Easter Weekend.

Bob's 2 Bob's's picture
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Bob's 2 Bob's Friday, 18 Apr 2014 at 1:54pm

Mr 76, what do you think, you have commented in past on forecast. Do you think Sunday morning will still be fairly solid early and clean then easing as per CW, or do think as per SN, which seems to indicate, with less specifics, that Sunday will be smaller, better and cleaner (no size estimate). Is that the Wow there's a big difference between the reports you are referring to?

Craig's picture
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Craig Friday, 18 Apr 2014 at 1:56pm

I think the Surf Coast will be generally in the 4-5ft range Sunday morning, possibly 6ft sets at magnets like Bells/Winki/13th early, but tailing off through the day.

southey's picture
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southey Friday, 18 Apr 2014 at 1:57pm

Final Anzac day or the following Monday ....Ooops not long enough waiting period .
Friday the 25 th it is .

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Friday, 18 Apr 2014 at 1:58pm

2Bob, Craig had a size estimate for Sunday in his notes:

"Sunday is looking much better with an easing swell from 4-5ft and 6-8ft respectively as winds swing around to a fresh NW'ly during the morning ahead of a swing to the W/NW into the afternoon, favouring the Surf Coast."

(with reference to the previous paragraph, so 4-5ft in Torquay and 6-8ft on the Peninsula)

https://www.swellnet.com/forums/swellnet-forecast-notes/115386

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Friday, 18 Apr 2014 at 1:59pm

In the meantime, how's the live action from Margaret River! Epic waves to watch on our surfcam, as per this screenshot. There's a crew of about 25 out, getting some beautiful waves.

https://www.swellnet.com/surfcams/margaret-river

Bob's 2 Bob's's picture
Bob's 2 Bob's's picture
Bob's 2 Bob's Friday, 18 Apr 2014 at 2:00pm

Is the other difference between the reports, CW indicating lighter onshore winds Saturday afternoon with SN indicating stronger spoiling onshore winds all day. It's good to compare forecasts under the spotlight I believe.

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Saturday, 19 Apr 2014 at 3:31pm

Looks like Craig got the wind forecast bang on. Early light W'lies creating clean conditions, with bumpy conditions settling in from mid-late morning onwards thanks to a moderate to fresh SW'er. The ASP called off the event about an hour ago and it looked quite bumpy and average at the time.

Wind obs from Aireys Inlet also confirm the wind trend. http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV60801/IDV60801.94846.shtml

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 18 Apr 2014 at 2:03pm

Winds will ease into the afternoon Bob, but after a morning and early afternoon of 15kt+ onshores, it aint gonna be pretty.

Should be an early period of W'ly winds around Torquay, but this isn't a given and it won't last long either.

Bob's 2 Bob's's picture
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Bob's 2 Bob's Friday, 18 Apr 2014 at 2:07pm

Then I'm trying to work out Mr 76's comment Wow there's a VERY BIG difference between CW and SN report, they sort of seem very similar or am I missing something?

Craig's picture
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Craig Friday, 18 Apr 2014 at 2:11pm

Probably more the differences on size tomorrow/early Sunday, and Monday afternoon's pulse to 5-6ft during the afternoon, which I think is overcooked.

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Friday, 18 Apr 2014 at 2:12pm

CW (via the ASP website) have 6-8ft all day Saturday, holding through Sunday morning. Craig's forecast is a little smaller (building to 6ft+ during Saturday, then 4-5ft+ Sunday). I suppose that's a reasonable point of difference.

Bob's 2 Bob's's picture
Bob's 2 Bob's's picture
Bob's 2 Bob's Friday, 18 Apr 2014 at 3:23pm

which doesn't seem like WOW very big differences, especially when, who's going to agree on what a 4, 5 or 6 feet plus wave is anyway. Wow!

Bob's 2 Bob's's picture
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Bob's 2 Bob's Friday, 18 Apr 2014 at 3:24pm

we need Mr 76 to respond in detail on the VERY BIG differences?

Bob's 2 Bob's's picture
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Bob's 2 Bob's Friday, 18 Apr 2014 at 5:21pm

Thermalben, CW don't have 6 to 8 all day Saturday, do they? -" Saturday 19th April: SWELL: New, long period SW groundswell fills in. SURF: Inconsistent sets to 5 - 6ft+ at Bells Beach early, rising to 6 – 8ft during the day and holding this size throughout the early afternoon before easing later."
Unless it's somewhere else or has been edited?
Anyway, I can't see the WOW very big differences from Mr 76 and await a response from him on that one and, will be good to follow it through regardless.

simba's picture
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simba Friday, 18 Apr 2014 at 8:31pm

Bob you sound like a nit picker

barley's picture
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barley Saturday, 19 Apr 2014 at 1:49am

Swells just kicked..de coudic says 5m @15s and not at peak yet..tomoz Could be real good..no photo's though!! ;)

shaun's picture
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shaun Saturday, 19 Apr 2014 at 6:20am

That's a polite way to call some one a mental retard simba.

Bob, stop obsessing on the the theory and just do it(surfing).

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Saturday, 19 Apr 2014 at 7:33am

Bob, Craig and Ben answered your question mate.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Saturday, 19 Apr 2014 at 8:14am

Red Bull Cape Fear comp , not on ? would be 6-10 ft today wouldn't it ?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 19 Apr 2014 at 8:32am

Yeah easy 8ft across most Sydney beaches so Solander should be seeing a few 10ft bombs. Winds at Kurnell are moderate SW tending S/SW which is pretty good although Wattamolla (south of Cronulla) is fresh S'ly and there's a chance this could impact the region during the day. 

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Saturday, 19 Apr 2014 at 4:26pm

Just saw Koby in Bali so I'd say it's not a goer

Craig's picture
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Craig Saturday, 19 Apr 2014 at 6:45pm

Plenty of size Udo and Blowin, but winds went to shit just before dawn..

southey's picture
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southey Saturday, 19 Apr 2014 at 10:18pm

Back to the issue of Bells for tomoz .

I just saw that the Pt Nepean wave buoy has only started to show a decrease of sorts in the peak wave period . I personally usually see a drop of 2 secs ( or there abouts ) as the peak in swell intencity x consistency . A guide of best swell conditions ....
Also of note at the same time a H max of over 6m , which is nearly double the Hsig .
Tommorrow morning could still be interesting .
The other thing that has changed in the models for the end of the waiting period is that newly formed TC " jack " is no longer progged to dip down and feed into a southern frontal system . So weather wise next w/end looks fine . Swell on the other hand will be Yet to be determined , If it does actually do what they were progging but stalled , spots loving more west direction will be good .

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Sunday, 20 Apr 2014 at 8:13am

Bells looks a pretty limp three to four this morning. maybe three to five.

so I'd say Craig's call was closer to the mark.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Sunday, 20 Apr 2014 at 11:16am

Just turned it on and looks a good 4-5ft? Tide helped. In any case, how dreamy does it look from a surfing perspective, long big walls to carve all over.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Sunday, 20 Apr 2014 at 3:24pm

Evosurfer, you getting any Bali goodness ?

caml's picture
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caml Sunday, 20 Apr 2014 at 3:37pm

Hey mickfree how ya going mate? The byrne spear got wet first time today & went really good

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Sunday, 20 Apr 2014 at 9:44pm

"Summary
An increase in long range E groundswell sets in over the weekend, sustaining wave heights at either side of three feet across exposed beaches ahead of a second pulse on Monday peaking at four to five feet."

That was the CW forecast for NENSW for the weekend. Either side of three feet?
How's six to eight feet sound. Is that either side?
Unbelievable miss.

caml's picture
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caml Monday, 21 Apr 2014 at 1:49am

More easter swell sunday . Quality with another pulse of almost 4 metre (alb bouy ) .

mick-free's picture
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mick-free Monday, 21 Apr 2014 at 7:24am

Camel, all good staying in John Witzigs old trailer park. Friendly locals and crew. How did you go on Saturday?

Bob's 2 Bob's's picture
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Bob's 2 Bob's Tuesday, 22 Apr 2014 at 2:44pm

Some diff in SN and CW forecast for tomorrow wow!

Craig's picture
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Craig Tuesday, 22 Apr 2014 at 2:50pm

I don't see any major difference. I have in the 3ft range all day under persistent offshore NW winds, while they have 3-4ft at Bells, undersized early with W/NW winds, tending N/NW into the afternoon.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Tuesday, 22 Apr 2014 at 3:00pm

"we need Mr 76 to respond in detail on the VERY BIG differences?"

Get it now Bob, now that we've seen the actual surf?

Craig was pretty much spot on....maybe a slight overcall for Sun. CW was way, way overcooked.

Anyway Bob, did you get a few?

Bob's 2 Bob's's picture
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Bob's 2 Bob's Tuesday, 22 Apr 2014 at 3:07pm

I don't surf. I fish off the rocks and rely on accurate swell forecasting to see which rock to stand on.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Tuesday, 22 Apr 2014 at 3:08pm

OK, did you get a fish in?

wellymon's picture
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wellymon Tuesday, 22 Apr 2014 at 6:25pm

Hope you caught some Bobby Boy.
I honestly have a question for you champ, do you know the difference between some surfers that call 3-4ft.....!
What is that foot measurement in fishing terms....?
Is it the same as the fish you caught :)

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Tuesday, 22 Apr 2014 at 7:44pm

Personal preference really, but I usually stand on the safest rock with the most hungry fish within casting distance. But that's just me.

Bob's 2 Bob's's picture
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Bob's 2 Bob's Tuesday, 22 Apr 2014 at 7:57pm

yep wellymon, I'll explain in fish terms. If your a hero fisherman you'll call the 100cm tuna a 2 foot tuna or your 150cm mackeral, if you're a recreational fisherman, that will be 3 to 4 feet long. How's that? A small flathead might be almost flat!

Bob's 2 Bob's's picture
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Bob's 2 Bob's Tuesday, 22 Apr 2014 at 8:39pm

and if you can verify Hawaii experience fishing deep sea Pacific, you can measure your fish along the back from eyeball to tailfin base and it will be a lot smaller than measuring on fish stomach - in otherwords the stomach fish (lets call it a Tuna) might be 4 feet but for us big sea fisher guys, we call bullshit on that and it's only a two footer when you measure our style. and if your a serious expert you can start disputing others who call fish sizes.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Wednesday, 23 Apr 2014 at 7:24am

so did you fish the stones Bob?

Bob's 2 Bob's's picture
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Bob's 2 Bob's Wednesday, 23 Apr 2014 at 7:47am

I am getting bites

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Wednesday, 23 Apr 2014 at 7:57am

You sly fox Bob. BTW no one fishes the rocks anymore. They fish the bricks.

Bob's 2 Bob's's picture
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Bob's 2 Bob's Wednesday, 23 Apr 2014 at 8:09am

I'm awaiting Mr 76's critical comparison of SN/CW on today Bells conditions. I have the bait

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Wednesday, 23 Apr 2014 at 10:41am

too busy fishing Bob. Got a mackerel this morning.
Ever seen one of them caught from the shore?
on a lure. Better than bait. Less smelly and more durable.

Bob's 2 Bob's's picture
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Bob's 2 Bob's Wednesday, 23 Apr 2014 at 11:23am

I'm not surprized you're fishing at all, great past time. I'll await your comparison on the SN/CW later with interest. I'm sure it will come through. BTW, my bait of choice, especially for Mackerel, is always live bait, doesn't smell and has an excellent strike rate!

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Wednesday, 23 Apr 2014 at 12:13pm

My personal favourite - if we were to actually be discussing fishing - is to jag a livey from a bait ball then wack a single unweighted hook and throw it back in the school. Instant vacuum forms around the poor blighted .... The sphere of death. Up. North WA that fucker has less than 5 minutes to live. Most times way less.

What sort or Macky Freeride ? Spaniards are probably my favourite fish.

Bob's 2 Bob's's picture
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Bob's 2 Bob's Wednesday, 23 Apr 2014 at 12:21pm

I'm with you Blowin, live but not for long, I raise my eyebrows when I hear of lure as better than live bait, we fisherman of experience chuckle together and highlight those sort of comments. wow

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Wednesday, 23 Apr 2014 at 12:33pm

Throwing a lure is my second favourite - no mess , no fuss. Grab your outfit and your into it. Cover lots of ground. Satisfying as fuck. Macky on a lure nothing to be sneezed at.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Wednesday, 23 Apr 2014 at 1:39pm

Sure liveys are the ducks nuts but when you're hiking rock platforms and fishing gnarly ledges it's less gear to carry to fish lures.
Twas only a spotty Blowin, caught on a four inch soft plastic chasing jew.
Had some big spaniard hookups this summer but nil result.
Got one tuna thirty five pound.
All on lures.

Did you get a fish in Bob? Or are you one of those internet fishermen?

Bob's 2 Bob's's picture
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Bob's 2 Bob's Wednesday, 23 Apr 2014 at 1:57pm

I had some bites over the last two days but then this morning the bites sort of went cold 76. Strange hey - I feel they got a little timid and darted off for some deeper water, they'll come back I'm sure. I'm glad you fished today - nothing worse than being an internet junky I say.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Wednesday, 23 Apr 2014 at 2:03pm

That's what happens when you keep putting the same mouldy old bait out there Bob.
You got to keep it fresh and enticing.

Bob's 2 Bob's's picture
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Bob's 2 Bob's Wednesday, 23 Apr 2014 at 2:09pm

I feel you might not read other peoples words with attention to detail 76 - Live is not mouldy ever! Live is always fresh

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Wednesday, 23 Apr 2014 at 2:15pm

Amazing how some fish will even shy away from a live bait if there's a hook in it.

they learn so quickly!

Bob's 2 Bob's's picture
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Bob's 2 Bob's Wednesday, 23 Apr 2014 at 2:22pm

That's the frustrating part, some , especially the crusty older ones, know when to nip and scavenger, but then they know when the hook will take hold of them and, as the saying goes, they won't take the bait. Shame really.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Wednesday, 23 Apr 2014 at 2:28pm

thats fishing mate!

Tiddlywinks is easier, so I hear.

Bob's 2 Bob's's picture
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Bob's 2 Bob's Wednesday, 23 Apr 2014 at 2:58pm

wow!

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Wednesday, 23 Apr 2014 at 2:59pm

Righto, Easter's all done so let's wind things up.