Submitted by Craig on Fri, 04/18/2014 - 11:12
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 18th April)
Best Days: Sunday morning, Monday morning, early Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday all on the Surf Coast, Friday east of Melbourne
Yesterday was great for the beach breaks and exposed spots across the state with a small swell and offshore N'ly winds.
Today a new W/SW groundswell has filled in offering inconsistent 2ft+ sets around Torquay, a touch under expectations while 13th Beach had larger 2-3ft waves, with bigger 4-6ft surf on the Mornington Peninsula. Conditions were clean early on the Surf Coast but a strong SW change has since whipped through, writing off the surf for the rest of the day.
This weekend (Apr 19 - 21)
There's been no further change to the large swell expected across the Victorian coast tomorrow with the Surf Coast expected to build to 6ft+ by midday and hold into the afternoon, with larger 8-10ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula.
Winds will unfortunately be fresh from the SW across most spots tomorrow morning in the wake of today's front, but the Torquay region should see an early W'ly breeze favouring the protected reefs.
Sunday is looking much better with an easing swell from 4-5ft and 6-8ft respectively as winds swing around to a fresh NW'ly during the morning ahead of a swing to the W/NW into the afternoon, favouring the Surf Coast.
A reinforcing pulse of W/SW groundswell due on Monday afternoon, generated by a tight and strong polar low pushing in behind the system responsible for Saturday's swell should keep the Surf Coast ticking in the 3-4ft+ range, with 6ft+ sets east of Melbourne. Before this though a close-range SW swell from a front spawning off the polar low will push in during the morning, keeping medium sized waves hitting both coasts.
A late change on Sunday associated with the fronts mentioned aboe looks to cause a few problems Monday morning now, with a lingering onshore possible across the coast. The one positive is that this front will be quite weak, and local land breezes may overcome the onshore, with a lighter and more variable breeze developing that may even tend N/NE during the morning.
Next Tuesday onwards (Apr 22 onwards)
Moderate levels of SW groundswell should persist through the rest of next week as a flurry of strong but patchy frontal activity pushes through the Southern Ocean during the weekend and early next week.
The Surf Coast should persist in the 3ft range for the most part, with 4-6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula ahead of a possible slightly stronger pulse later Thursday and Friday morning.
Winds are expected to swing back to the NW early Tuesday morning ahead of a SW change before lunch, with persistent W/NW winds through Wednesday and Thursday.
Longer term, the outlook remains positive, but more on this on Monday.