Burton Automotive Newcastle Surfest
June 2nd -  8th

The first contest of the five-contest Challenger Series starts next week. Synoptically, the pattern for Surfest is positive with lots of activity firing up through the southern Tasman Sea for the waiting period, however it’ll be the local winds that dictate conditions with the largest days due to be met with straight southerly winds - and in Newy that means choppy surf.

Over the weekend, a large southerly groundswell will impact the Hunter region, produced by a great Southern Ocean frontal progression pushing up towards New Zealand later this week, from a position south of Tasmania.

The groundswell is due to build through Saturday, peak overnight and then ease slowly Sunday under morning offshores. That's all well and good for weekend warriors and contestants warming up, but come Monday, which is the first day of the waiting period, we’ll be looking at smaller easing 3-4 foot surf under morning offshores, shifting cross-shore into the afternoon.

Tuesday looks smaller again though an inconsistent, reinforcing southerly groundswell should maintain 3 foot sets. Unfortunately, the next approaching frontal system will bring strengthening west-southwest tending south-west winds, creating choppy, deteriorating conditions.

We’re looking at another strong Tasman Low forming off the southern NSW coastline through Wednesday. As it projects north it'll create a large, windy southerly swell that'll build through the day Wednesday, peaking on Thursday.

The swell will peak around 6-8 feet on Wednesday, easing through Thursday from the 6 foot range. However, local winds are the main issue with a strong south-west tending south-southwest breeze on Wednesday, while Thursday comes in cleaner under cross-offshore west-northwest breezes in the morning and weak sea breezes into the afternoon.

Trailing frontal activity below the Tasman Low should generate plenty of southerly swell for Friday and into the weekend with light, local offshore winds due to give into relatively weak sea breezes, capping off the event in good to great waves.

//CRAIG BROKENSHA