Early Forecast: Western Australia Margaret River Pro
The Western Australia Margaret River Pro
April 11th - 21st, 2024
Interviewed after his Round of 32 loss at Bells, Kelly Slater mentioned looking forward to Margaret River as opening day should be good for the Box. It was a bold call from twelve days out and increased the anticipation for the West Oz CT.
It was, however, a touch premature. As the day has drawn closer, neither the swell size or direction will be conducive to the Box. That'll be the case through the middle of the comp too, though in keeping with this year's pattern a late uptick in energy could see a flurry of waves towards the end of the waiting period.
The last time the Woz shifted north to the Box was 2019 when one round was held - it was also the last year John John won in the west (WSL)
Western Australia has just come off its hottest summer on record, with persistent offshore winds drawing inland heat to the coast. This pattern has continued into the start of autumn, and meanwhile swells typical for this time of year are yet to materialise.
We've got a similar wind setup for for both the warm-up period and the opening stages of the Margaret River Pro, which is set to get underway on Thursday 11th of April. From this weekend until opening day a settled pattern will fall across the southwest, with southeast wind and swell ranging between 3 and 6 feet.
On opening day, a small pulse of inconsistent south/southwest groundswell is expected, generated by a late-forming polar front, to the south of Western Australia. The late intensification and southerly direction of the swell isn't ideal for Main Break, with it likely to be slow and to 3-4 feet.
Conditions should be clean under a strong, but easing easterly offshore, with the wind edging south and strengthening after lunch.
The following days look smaller, liable to be lay days, as the swell fades in size.
Unfortunately a blocking pattern immediately west of the state will persist through most of next week and into the following weekend, deflecting swell generating storms away from the region - see image below.
So we're looking at small, flukey pulses of mid-period swell energy from this Sunday through next week, likely not topping a slow 3-4 feet. If we're looking for positives, then at least the surface conditions should mostly be clean.
If the WSL keep their finger on it, it's possible short windows of fun waves - small and clean - may appear in order to make headway into the draw.
Towards the very end of the waiting period, and granted we're now peering deep into the crystal ball, it looks like the Southern Ocean will start to come alive, though more so over towards South Africa. A series of healthy storms look to generate bigger, yet inconsistent owing to distance, westerly groundswell for the final days of the waiting period.
So at this stage it looks to be yet another drawn out event, possibly going down to the final days.
Check back for the updated forecast early next week.
Comments
How casual is J-Flo in that photo.
Whilst the tour’s top dogs are skilled in most conditions it must be said that they lose quite a bit of advantage when the surf is less than imposing. The small early rounds are a godsend to a few of the below the cut surfers.
Moniz, Silva , Hanneman, Matson and M Pupo will be relishing that forecast I reckon
100%
If the forecast conditions of 3ft surf at best occur and Deivid Silva won / got his name on those steps after his performance there in 4m LAGO conditions, every WA surfer should write to their MP to immediately defund this event.
Not sure how you get to that conclusion. Those are the same surfers who have lost in the early rounds of every event this year in very average waves
Sigh!! Here we go again.
I see Nate Florence has left Vans and joined the Florence Marine X brand...
Talks about a near future slab tour with JJF...
Will the world champ exodus continue????
I think it would be in John's best interests to do both. John has way too many fans.....
Congrats to John and Nathan .
Wonder if Vans or Nate was the instigator for that decision?
Plenty of pay cuts over there.
Vans aren't cool with the kids atm
It's like the 90s all over.
Could be a great long term sponsor in Florence
Far more longevity than corpo vans .
If I get more slab tour I'm happy!
Oh mate if they teamed up for a slab tour that would be unreal viewing!
Love ya comments Goofy on SN but I'm struggling to understand Nate going to these spots and blowing them up....seems to be okay cause he's Nate Florence? I mean will he get an invite to UFO's next trip?
I see what you’re saying Mick.
But the one’s that come to mind instantly are Ireland, Shark Island, Luna’s, South Oz slab… not exactly secret.
The Solomon Islands one I’m not sure he should have promoted??
But yeah it’s hard, I love watching what he does and it’s unreal entertainment but where’s the line..
good comment Mick. Got me thinking.
Perhaps Nathan will no longer need to tarnish his image by association with moral scumbags like sports bet now.
Have to agree with Slack. I hope for guys like Wilcox, who I feel deserves to make the cut, they keep their finger off the trigger and wait for bigger conditions. I hope those conditions come. I feel a few of the last events, and the conditions they started/run in, brought the QS level guys up to the field. I mean I don't mind an event or two like Trestles geared to high performance smaller wave surfing but overall I tend to prefer the CT geared to the upper echelon of surfers who excel in the power stuff (accepting that the WSL can't control mother nature). # I don't like the idea of Trestles deciding a title but its a great wave for an event.
Great fun wave.
that's a bit sad
Surely, at some point soon, the Woz has to jag a pumping forecast.
It'd make it a lot easier for me if they did!
The curse of elo can't be shook
Come on huey !!@@@@@@@@
The lowest point was that year at Final Day Trestles when I’d set the alarm for 1AM, had the beers in the fridge ready to go full berserker immersion in the finale and don’t spare the horses.
The surf was impossibly shit waist to chest high , onshore , grey vomit and I went back to bed dead disappointed and dead sober within minutes.
Think it was the year Steph won?
I honestly reckon things have improved since. It seems to be slowly turning around. Whether there’s a final day at Trestles next year is the big reveal. I reckon Huey will be back on board with the program after that. He’s currently as disgusted with the WSL corporate agenda as the rest of us.
I actually didn't watch finals that year yokel,
Seemed harsh to send the likes of jack robbo, EE out in that stuff.
That's surfing though. 2 foot to 20 foot.
That's what world champ should be tested in over a year for the title.
No arguments.......
Yes arguments world titles should not be decided in any less than 4’ unless it is world under 15s
2 foot to 20 foot over a season.
Trestles should just be the end event.
No more no less
I know Margs isn’t the most interesting wave to watch or surf but at least you could nearly always guarantee juice……….this is a little disappointing.
Watch the Woz go into overhype with the cut. As it is, only 4 women left can make it.
The cut really counts at pipe sunset Portugal and bells, it's all but over by the time it hits margs.
Feel if you've left it for Margaret's you've left it far to late. Hello snapper!
Can they run at southsides?
NO NO and NO
Gonna have to move it up to lefties looking at that forey haha
Was thinking the exact same thing but not sure about naming lefties haha
Don't know if the vanlife capital of the south-west is much of a secret these days...
Lol. Borderline on flat in the south west in the middle of April. Out of the possible forecasts, this was probably the least likely. The tour is truly cursed.
How's the chances .............?
Spoke to Kelly a couple years back in Margs.
He compared coming to the region to compete at Mainbreak to “going to a fancy dinner party where you can’t have any of the food, you just get a few Cheetos at the door.”
Here’s hoping for a couple heats at The Box.
Dare I think or say, with the small to medium wave forecast, we might get to see some Main Break lefts ridden at some stage. Bloody hope so!
I reckon the same blocking high just follows the woz around the globe and plonks itself off the coast of all their comps, for the exact duration of the waiting period.
Huey hates the wozzle.
It a complex system called El Elo
Bahahahaha.
Nice one @ Bustard
Amazing. 3 to 4 foot, offshore, and people are whinging.
I see a fetch moving east below south africa, around the 8th (-45,40). Active sea state too, thanks to the same system currently at -50,15. I'd say sometime around late sunday or early monday a 13 to 14 second 4 foot wsw swell has the distinct possibilty to over perform.
My call back on the 5th is firming up
Any more clarity on what you mean by 'over perform'?
I'm expecting head high sets on Monday but from a diff swell source.
I'm simply saying that the swell will over perform on late 14th to 15th, as to what was predicted (or not predicted) by many back on the 4th.
IMO , there will be some wsw angle in it. 240ish degrees. Solid 4 feet.
Late (night time) on the 15th, and into the 16th, a ssw swell will fill in.
Can u elaborate on this "head high sets" you speak of?
Sheepy remember your Tahiti forecast last year the super south swell that didn't arrive?
On today you reckon ld?
It's already been called off for the day. Wave buoy is currently under a metre, there's a small distant pulse of new energy in the water but it's not much.
Thanks Ben, just seen it on the live chat page.
Just wasn't sure what your prediction was.. "a 13 to 14 second 4 foot wsw swell" sounded like an estimate of open ocean swell, rather than a specific surf size at the coast.
But if you're expecting 4ft surf to "over perform", does that mean you're actually expecting 4-6ft surf? Also, can't quite recall how you measure wave heights, whether 4ft = a foot overhead (and 6ft = double overhead) or if you're a face-feet kinda guy.
In any case Craig had already pegged a couple of overlapping swells around this time in the 3-4ft range (head high to a foot overhead).
For mine, my call of head high surf for Monday is around 3ft, which is what I'm expecting tomorrow.
In Turpel talk that 8 to 10, so it looks like we've all bases covered hey Ben :))))
See, this is why the aliens wont visit us.
"my call of head high surf for Monday is around 3ft"....................... I never knew you were a dwarf. Can i say dwarf, or is that now an offensive term? hahahahaha.
Bad taste jokes aside, I always laugh at surfers that use the old "the smaller I call the surf - the bigger my dick - ladies belong in the kitchen" size chart. 3 feet is 3 school rulers. Measure that on a wall next to you. You will be shocked at how small 3 feet really is.
The fact that experienced grown men want EXACT ocean measurements, times, periods, precise wind speeds and angles, but then call a head high wave 3 feet will always be a rib tickler for me.
I've always given a surf size , not an open ocean waves size.
As far as Craigs report on the 4th, most of it is centred on the week leading up to day1. The only mention that comes close to the 15th is below;
"On opening day, a small pulse of inconsistent south/southwest groundswell is expected, generated by a late-forming polar front, to the south of Western Australia. The late intensification and southerly direction of the swell isn't ideal for Main Break, with it likely to be slow and to 3-4 feet.
Conditions should be clean under a strong, but easing easterly offshore, with the wind edging south and strengthening after lunch.
The following days look smaller, liable to be lay days, as the swell fades in size."
From there, he reverts back to speaking about "next week", when written on the 4th means 7th throught to 13th. Correct me if I'm wrong. i know u will lol.
So considering that its stated by you guys that there's basically dying swell between day 1 up until a "flurry of waves towards the end of the waiting period", Im saying that the swell I call tomorrow will "over perform" in regards to not only the 4th of april forecast by Craig, but many other swell forecasts which dont take active sea state into consideration. Might be a few sneaky 5 footers.
BTW, I generally go by the back of the wave, unless its somewhere like chopes that has no back.
A very general rule of thumb for me is "add 50% gross" to the back, and you will have your face size. EG - a 4 foot back - 2 feet is 50% - 4 + 2 = 6 feet faces.
Perhaps if we all just go by face size, non surfers will stop calling us douches.
My head hurts.
Thanks for the detailed response though.
if you call from the back of the wave does that mean you're not able to talk about wave size until after you've surfed?
“ BTW, I generally go by the back of the wave, unless its somewhere like chopes that has no back.
A very general rule of thumb for me is "add 50% gross" to the back, and you will have your face size. EG - a 4 foot back - 2 feet is 50% - 4 + 2 = 6 feet faces.
Perhaps if we all just go by face size, non surfers will stop calling us douches.”
Out of interest what do non-surfers say when you try to explain that simple method to them?
haha classic.
It was 3 foot down here today. Which was over my head. And i'm not a midget.
Super slow and inconsistent as predicted. When the sets came they were little minute or two long pulses then back to pretty flat. Pretty sleepy ocean, but cracking weather!
You'll be right SD, there will be a few sneaky 5 footers and Metho will be calling it 8 to 10
more importantly Craig, is it ever going to rain again here?
That's one scary question geebee.
the cocktoos will tell you when the rain is comin;... if there are any Banksia left to feed on
an African backing track
Great point bbbird.
They've completely disappeared from here over last few weeks.
They’ve also disappeared from my part of southern vic.
They're all up here in Perth under the sprinklers, thousands of the fuckers.
They’ll run small. Have to save Medina and Italo’s careers
Medina & Italo are actually pretty good in bigger waves.
Absurdly good - including at Margs
the indian ocean usually cooks up something this time of year, bit early to panic
There’s no way it’s gonna be tiny for the whole event at this time of year
It's trying its hardest!
The forecast for box is irrelevant. Last year box was absolutely perfect for days and they didn’t run a heat out there, what makes people think this year will be different?
Correct, no way with careers on the line are they going to bother chucking half a dozen heats out at inconsistent box. Don’t get me wrong, I’d love them too but just won’t happen.
100%. every year the same chat around Margies and every year we get 200 hold calls, will we or won't we go to the box / north point, and socials showing way better waves in the area and we're left with watching surfers only get the score if they finish on the bricks.
unless Kieren Perrow is walking back through that door we're not getting the box, and even if he did we'd be on hold for several hours whilst he surfed it himself to check it was comp worthy.
There's NO Margies mate, its Margs hahahaha
The other side of the Indian ocean looks to be where all the action is going to be next week.
The Mozambique Pro? Madagascar Masters?
It's going to be onshore SR hehe
Whoops! My bad. :-P
Might be side shore as well hehehe
Starting my “bricks” meter now. When all else fails the commentators can talk about landing on the bricks.
good one, maybe we should lay odds on Sportsbet, how many times turpel says bricks
Or 'clutch performance'.
Or “West is Best”
or "so cool"
I see your “so cool” & raise a “so fun”
He loves a ‘cool pace’ (when someone’s doing nothing or there’s downtime on a wave)
Oh no please put a limit on that one
or ‘Lu Lu’
"Convergence"
Ha!
Also key hole, the river mouth etc.
Or … “ the lefts are stacking up nicely “
….
Haha! There will be talk about how they "used to just go left out there" god bless 'em...
Like fingernails on a chalkboard,
So are the phrases of Joey Turpel live.
next you'll all be saying you never liked Bruce McAvaney
haha, the catchphrase GOAT.
Can someone throw into GPT " what are the most used adjectives by the world surf league commentary team " and report back
No Bustard ,
Get back on the ski, reset!
But I need to build my house
But I need to build my house
But I need to build my house
Imagine having to commentate a sport where 99% of the time it's just two people sitting in the water, and it runs for like eight hours straight.
Definitely not a huge fan of Turpel and the blandness of late, but it's no easy task.
Yea nah ... get on the beach , interview a few legends and local characters ,local artists , sculptors , get some local design guru to talk shapes , whats the marine life in the area and the ecosystem that supports it . etc etc etc , Theres a million ways to fill in 8 hours with some imagination .
That's eight hours multiplied by four days, plus post shows etc, and interviewing local legends can go awry. But agree they could be more clever, like at least get the forecaster to come on and discuss the more detailed aspects of the forecast and explain exactly how certain swell / wind / tide combinations work at the break and why.
Cederman shows how it should be done.
That was very good !
"Flow State"
Here's what we're putting our hopes on for mid-late next week.
GFS has this storm stronger than EC, with an earlier arrival and more size.
We can probably expect swell in the 6ft+ range at this stage.
Swell arrives with the first n / nw winds of the year too Craig? Contest karma
Bit tricky to say, hopefully more variable.
when making cocktail sauce is it 2 part mayo 1 part sauce.... or 3 part mayo 1 part sauce i dont want to muck it up again....
50/50 and add a splash of worcestershire sauce, few shakes of Tabasco, a little lemon juice and some horseradish to sex it up a bit.
Rarely see Mainbreak turn it on other than 3 turns & a close out. So many other GR8 waves in close proximity but rarely does the WOZ go there!
GOOD
Forecast for small and or windy right down till the end.
Had the "pleasure " of having a quiet sunset beer watching the surf ruined by Sally Fitz parking in front of my view and then standing there throwing spastic shakas and talking to her phone filming herself blabbing on... the only reason I was parked where I was up in the sticks cause the wsl has taken the whole point and rivermouth area over yet the pros want to make it look like it's and empty wilderness region for their socials... wankers
Looking forward to Sally finally being cut for good
Spastic shakas - hahahaha. Yes time for Sally to go - she keeps missing the cut but never drops off tour!
Like herpes.
Haha
I'm over here now, I'll see you see down there one day.
yeew
Careful mate, you'll have the lap dog's yapping.
Interesting we don't have a surfcam showing the Box anymore... the one on surfline used to pan over from MB and zoom in on Box.. not doing it now
maybe JMD paid them off so we couldn't question her calls to stay at MB when it's clearly spitting huge beautiful tubes over there
Margs is a good watch for those on the East coast i reckon. Late start so we can go for a surf and gets hit done before tuning in. Only downside is those pesky sunsets over the Indian making the event nigh unwatchable due to glare. Same as for Portugal.
Can’t the Shire do something about those beautiful sunsets disrupting my viewing pleasure? Perhaps we could tack an extra charge on to a carbon tax and move the setting sun to somewhere more convenient whilst we are paying the government to alter the weather ( lol).
I find watching the webcast in dark sunglasses helps.
Stu how are you going? Grown some gills?
We did OK. Shed flooded really badly, so some stuff is ruined but it's a flesh wound compared to what people around us suffered.
The clean up is continuing yet as I write this the rain has begun to fall again.
Not the mags, nooooo
That’d be right. Just when I’m starting to get used to these uncomfortable rose coloured lenses.
Just wondering which heat Mal C'ness is in? Didnt see his name in the draw, male or female.
Looks like a big swell now forecast for the last day of the waiting period?
Gotta say comments have gone a little funky
Watching web casts with sunglasses, spastic shakas..... asking gov to alter weather..
Tin foil hats handed out in the contest area?
There may be some ( poor) attempts at humour sprinkled amongst the comments
Sally “Shakas” Fitzgibbons is my pick for the win
Has the objective eye of swellnet wave size been corrupted by the size of SW Australians surfers gonads?
2.8m at 14.6s forecasts 4ft surf next week.
Todays buoy reading is 1.2m at 12 seconds and report is 4ft surf.
Maybe preso of Toona boardriders is running the forecasts. Possible enquiry required.
Ohh nice! Is that for the following Sunday(21st) DP? Heaps of West in that swell.
Could be a lovely little retirement party day at Box for Slats if it comes through.
will you be down there @SR?
I reckon steve could do you hard on the parmies,
if you're on-site with your hopes up!
haha yeah, wouldn't mind @basesix.
Personally feel like it would be a nice little tribute to go down and see Slats' last heat(s), considering he's been on the tour the whole of my surfing life (he went pro the year i started surfing). And considering the influence he's had in that time.
Will keep an eye on the forecast though...can't imagine being motivated to drive all the way there if it's 4 foot. Haha.
The parmie deals are over!!! (although as an aside i put 3bucks on the Cats winning by 36points last weekend and won 200bucks off that so feeling lucky! ) ;-)
man, that sounds really poignant and reflective.. even if it's slop.
and slats retirement is on your doorstep, relatively... even if he doesn't show.
you should do it, have a peek at the circus, or at least enjoy thinking on it for a bit.
I’ve never heard a single Australian surfer call the rocks or the reef “ The Bricks” except when parroting Joe Turpel either ironically or by involuntary reflex after hearing him say it eighty million times at Margs and J Bay.
It’s not an Aussie thing, is it a Septic thing?
Brick to the head? Yeah….that’s another thing altogether
?si=nAfZ410OOcYtC6tnWe on tomorrow?
Tomorrow's swell isn't great, south, slow and 3ft+ or so but clean. They might call it a lay day.
Tuesday looks a runner in the morning with better surf days from later next week into the final days.
Copy thanks Craig.
After a surf check this morning, my crystal ball says Nah
So no go till next Tuesday?
Huh.
Here's the latest update.
Tomorrow's swell is small (3ft+), though conditions will be clean. A low chance of running.
Tuesday/Wednesday's swell looks better and to 4-5ft+ out of the S/SW with morning offshores. Run days.
Then the inconsistent W/SW groundswell for late next week will build slowly Thursday and peak Friday (5-6ft), with the later likely being the next run day with finals on the following weekend.
I actually heard Joe Turpel say this at Bells after Kaipo gurned his way through a Bonsoy Coconut water spritzer thing spot: “Yeah, Kaipo - I just had a Bonsoy Coconut water whatever & I feel great about myself and my afternoon..”. Not sure he mentioned what psychoactive ingredient Bonsoy add to the beverage.
https://m.
&pp=ygUHc3VyZmluZw%3D%3DIf it’s this size the judges will have a hard time separating the crew. Only a limit to what can be done.
What a shocking ocean state. They will have to run tomorrow and Tuesday to get through some men’s rounds in what looks to be a little smaller than the first day of the comp..
#overperformed
hahahahahahaha
Huhhh? it was only 4 ft on the sets