2022: The Year of the Dark Horse

Stu Nettle picture
Stu Nettle (stunet)
Form Guide

This year the Woz ran their inaugural Challenger Series (CS), the mini-tour that sits between the Qualifying Series - which is now split into seven regional tours - and the elite Championship Tour.

Designed as a way to handle pro surfing’s increasing popularity and also to cut down global travel, the CS is limited to the world’s top 96 surfers for men (32 pulled from CT, 64 from QS) and top 64 for women (16 from the CT, 48 from the QS).

At the end of the Challenger Series, the top 12 men and top 6 women are promoted up to the following year’s CT.

For this year at least, the Challenger Series has provided a rare boost for surfers fortunate enough to do well in the series, even if only for one contest. When the CS was first announced in December 2020, the Woz conspicuously left out how many contests were in the series, leaving the reader to assume those details were yet to be finalised.

Yet when the rubber hit the road, the CS was just four contests strong: the US Open, Ericeira, Quik Pro France, and the upcoming Haleiwa Challenger.

As of right now, the cut off to get into the men’s top 12, and hence qualify for next year’s CT, is 9,500 points. The points for first place in any of the three contests is 10,000 points, so it goes without saying that each first place-getter is set to qualify.

One contest win and in. Or a few minor places and the same.

The top 8 of the men are almost certain to qualify even with one contest to go. Australian's Callum Robson and Jack Baker sit in 12th and 13th and should, with just moderate success at Haleiwa, also qualify.

Big results aren’t easy, of course, not when the field includes the world’s best 96 surfers, yet with just four contests in the series consistency isn’t the key to progressing, a lone strike of lightning is. There’s been a number of flashes and it’s throwing up some unusual results.

Consider that pre-COVID a typical QS warrior would incrementally climb the ratings over a number of seasons, improving their seedings each time, till they were within striking distance of the CT. The process might take years so watchers of pro surfing were always aware of the rising talent - who they are and how they're surfing.

Yet right now there are three surfers poised to qualify for the men’s CT who were outside the top 100 in 2019, which was the last full year of competition.

Peru’s Lucca Mesinas was 136th in 2019, while Australia’s Jack Baker and Callum Robson were ranked 120 and 105 respectively. Also set to qualify is Hawaii's Imaikalani Devault who placed 82nd in 2019 and Brazilian Joao Chianca who was 49th.

For many people, Lucca Mesinas is only known through his Olympic appearance, where he came 7th, losing out to Owen Wright.

Such large leaps onto the elite tour aren’t entirely unheard of. For instance, Morgan Cibilic jumped from 111th to 11th following a red hot run through the back half of 2018, but he’s the only surfer to do it in recent years.

It’s tempting to think the 2022 dark horses will be eaten alive when they hit the CT, yet Cibilic’s unlikely success this year might give them hope. From 111th to 11th to a shot at the world title - fella came 5th this year.

The women’s qualification race is more tightly bunched, with just the top three assured of qualifying, however one of those, 15-year old Caitlin Simmers, only surfed her first QS event last year - in 2019 she had no ranking. Similarly, equal 5th in the women’s and right on the bubble of qualifying is 15-year old Sawyer Lindblad who, like Simmers, surfed her first QS event last year.

Actually, there’s a notable trend in the women for young qualifiers with current 2nd place holder Gabriela Bryan aged 17, Simmers and Lindblad at 15, 7th placed Luana Silva who’s 17, and 13th placed Bettylou Sakura Johnson who’s also just 15. They follow the lead of Tyler Wright who won a CT at 14 years old and qualified at 17, and Caroline Marks who was the youngest qualifier at 16, however all this is another article for another day.

Already, the Woz has announced there’ll be six events for next year’s Challenger Series, which will again prioritise consistency throughout the series and reduce the impact of one big result.

If so, it means 2022 will stand alone as the year of the dark horse.

Check the men's and women's CS rankings here.
Haleiwa Challenger starts tomorrow.

Comments

gragagan's picture
gragagan's picture
gragagan Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 2:45pm

From what I can tell it's 4 comps this year, plus their best result from last years cancelled wqs carried over. Which gives them 5 results, which they then choose the best 4 results from. In the above rankings the totals don't add up. They show 4 results, but the totals are for the best 3 of those 4. So I'm assuming that after Haleiwa it will be best 4 out of 5 results.
Can't find any of this explained on their website though

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 3:13pm

Surfers get to carry over some points - if they have any - from the aborted 2020 QS, which should ostensibly give them five results, however they only count four.

As per, so few comps mean that just one stellar comp is pretty much enough to get over the line.

Where-is-albo's picture
Where-is-albo's picture
Where-is-albo Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 1:28pm

From the current WSL rule book:

For the 2021 Surfing Season, Surfers who earned Ranking Points in 2020 will carry over into the 2021 Challenger Series as follows: (i) if there are more than three (3) events in the 2021 Challenger Series, the Surfer will be able to count their best result from the 2020 Surfing Season as one of their 2021 Challenger Series counting results unless it is replaced by results with higher points, once the number of counting results has been reached; and (ii) if there are three (3) events or less in the 2021 Challenger Series, the Surfer will be able to count 50% of their best result from the 2020 Surfing Season as one of their 2021 Challenger Series counting results unless it is replaced by results with higher points, once the number of counting results has been reached.

Events Counting Towards Qualification: If there are more than five (5) Challenger Series Events then the best 5 five (5) results will count; If there are five (5) Challenger Series Events then the best four (4) results will count; if there are four (4) Challenger Series Events then the best three (3) results will count; and if there are three (3) or less Challenger Series Events then all results will count.

stunet's picture
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stunet Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 3:16pm

Also, on that score, Matt Banting was carrying over 8,000 points from a hot streak through the Aussie leg, so all he needed was a minor place or two to qualify for the CT, however he got laid out with a chronic foot injury.

adsi's picture
adsi's picture
adsi Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 8:10pm

I remember he was close last year he'll be devo to miss out

Chocalatte's picture
Chocalatte's picture
Chocalatte Sunday, 28 Nov 2021 at 12:17pm

A loud alarm bell ringing here about the mid-teen age girls set to qualify! WTF!
Wozzle clearly has no memory & I have no clue when it was scrapped, but the 2021 Rule Book does not mention anything (that I could find) about surfers having to be 18 to compete fulltime.
ASP (for all its faults) at least introduced the "18 rule" in the early 1990s, after the "Way Too Much Too Soon Syndrome" sidelined or ended the careers of a number of teen up & comers in the '80s - Occy, Nicky Wood & Septic prodigy David Eggers arguably the most high profile casualties...

spinafex's picture
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spinafex Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 12:18pm

Not sure that world exists anymore. Most of these kids will be home-schooled offspring of pros - Sierra Kerr, Jackson Dorian, etc then you've got your Kanoa Igarashi and Sky Brown types. Trained from an early age to deal with every aspect of pro sport.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 10:08am

Over the weekend, Surfing NSW announced next year's Sydney Surf Pro - the second CS event on the Aussie leg - will move from Manly to Narrabeen. Earlier this year there were hints the Narra CT wouldn't be a one-off and they've come to pass.

It's on May 17-24, 2022 with a three year license.

etarip's picture
etarip's picture
etarip Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 10:51am

How’s the equation looking for the crop of Aussies in the mix? 8 into the last 32 at Haleiwa, but a couple of those are already CT qualifiers? Anyone guaranteed to make the cut based on current results?

Where-is-albo's picture
Where-is-albo's picture
Where-is-albo Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 11:15am

Conner O has done enough. LOB and Callum R will more than likely make the cut with their current points. Lawler and Wilcox still have some work to do. Jackson Baker needs the current CT surfers to take all the points to have any chance.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 11:45am

Just did the math. If it all stopped now, and competitors got the points for the round they've made it up to, then Jack Baker and Callum Robson would be tied for 12th place (already taken Kanoa and Griffin out of the equation).

Reckon it's sayonara for Jack.

Where-is-albo's picture
Where-is-albo's picture
Where-is-albo Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 11:55am

Thanks Stu.
Must be a bitter pill to swallow for the surfers who just miss the cut.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 11:14am

Jackson Baker dropped 350 pts but picked up 700, so he gained 350.
He's ended the year on 10,750. That won't be enough to qualify.

The following are still in the comp:

Connor O'Leary will gain 2,000 pts minimum and he'll count all of them (missing a score)
He's on 11,000 so will almost certainly get in.

Like Connor, Callum Robson will keep all his points, and he'll currently get 2,000 minimum.
He's on 10,500 so he's a great chance to qualify, though one more heat win will give him 3,500 pts and solidify it.

Liam O'Brien will drop 750 and gain 2,000 minimum.
He's on 10,750, so he's looking at 12,000 pts minimum and is also a great chance, though he's right on the bubble.

Jordy Lawler will also drop 750 points and gain 2,000 minimum.
He's on 9,500 so is looking at 10,750 minimum and has to make gains to qualify.

Jacob Willcox is on 7,500 and will drop 400 pts.
He needs to at least make 5th place (5,000 pts) to have a chance (9th place is 3,500 and probably won't cut it)

Jack Freestone doesn't have enough points to qualify even if he wins.

Same goes Kalani Ball.

Jack Robbo is already on the CT.

Where-is-albo's picture
Where-is-albo's picture
Where-is-albo Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 2:17pm

Does that mean the carry over points from 2020 don't count as an event Stu? So they will only count best 3 out of a possible 5?

stunet's picture
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stunet Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 4:16pm

No, they count as an event, but it's still best four out of five (four events this year, one carry over from last year)

jimmy-dell's picture
jimmy-dell's picture
jimmy-dell Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 1:49pm

just on the q-t Jacko Baker may still have a chance, I think he is on the cusp right now with pupu and Lawler jumping him.
Depending on how those surfers deeper in the rankings fair...
I may be missing something, but it seems for him to get the boot those beyond 28 in the rankings (ie those below Camarao and Wilcox) have to get a third in the Qtrs, or better, to bump him.... so still a chance. Particularly if all results go to higher seeds/CTs from now on...

jimmy-dell's picture
jimmy-dell's picture
jimmy-dell Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 2:06pm

my bad, Sammy P bumps him. Poor Jacko has been the bridesmaid too many times! Lets Hope the Larikins behind make a run for the Aussie contingent.

barreldogs's picture
barreldogs's picture
barreldogs Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 3:41pm

Thought you had a real job these days? Surely you don't have time for this shit any more???

jimmy-dell's picture
jimmy-dell's picture
jimmy-dell Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 4:24pm

idle time waiting to pick the lad up from school - had enough of duolingo etc

seal's picture
seal's picture
seal Sunday, 5 Dec 2021 at 10:11am

According to the latest update, Jacko hanging in there still on 10700, Lawler out on 10300, Pupo still there on 10400, Willcox on 8900 and needs a high placed semi I think to jump Jacko ? Everyone else needs finals to jump Jacko . Very nerve wracking time for a couple of Aussies !

etarip's picture
etarip's picture
etarip Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 11:41am

Thanks Stu.
Comprehensive!

mpeachy's picture
mpeachy's picture
mpeachy Tuesday, 30 Nov 2021 at 4:05pm

Why didn't Jack Freestone do the earlier events?

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Sunday, 5 Dec 2021 at 8:52am

Callum Robson and Liam O'Brien officially on the CT.

crg's picture
crg's picture
crg Sunday, 5 Dec 2021 at 9:25am

Be great to see Jacob Wilcox join them...he’s got a tough quarter though...

Where-is-albo's picture
Where-is-albo's picture
Where-is-albo Sunday, 5 Dec 2021 at 2:56pm

Wilcox will move up into 12th in the rankings if he comes third or better in his quarter final.
Jordy L is currently in 10th.
Billy Stairmand and Ian Gentil are the only surfers left that can shake things up for the aussies. They will need to make the final though.

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Sunday, 5 Dec 2021 at 2:31pm

Looks a little bit more of a Brazilian Zephyr looking at the qualifiers (and mostly likely) heading to the CT next year. US, HI and Oz all looking strong.

Remigogo's picture
Remigogo's picture
Remigogo Sunday, 5 Dec 2021 at 10:51pm

I've been listening to some back history through swellian channels.. and can't help but think there is some serious inter generational shift going on here in Oz.

Will be very interesting to see how these final results pan out for the real green and gold.

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 9:17am

Sure is, Australia should have 9 Men in the top 32 next year:

Morgan Cibilic
Jack Robinson
Ryan Callinan
Ethan Ewing
Connor O'Leary
Liam O'Brien
Callum Robson
Jackson Baker
? Owen Wright (Wildcard)

I get the sense that this group will really band together and help each other through

mpeachy's picture
mpeachy's picture
mpeachy Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 10:05am

And maybe when Italo, Medina and Toledo retire in 5 years they might get a chance to break into the top three!

gragagan's picture
gragagan's picture
gragagan Tuesday, 7 Dec 2021 at 12:57pm

Lawler missed out by one spot so you would expect him to get a few starts, first or second alternate?

waxyfeet's picture
waxyfeet's picture
waxyfeet Tuesday, 7 Dec 2021 at 1:41pm

Year of the blue collar, indistinguishable from one another horse you mean.

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf Tuesday, 7 Dec 2021 at 3:28pm

Reminds me of the OZ boys of the Damian Hardman/Barton Lynch era - all pretty similar and no one really stood out, only those guys didn't have the Brazil nuts and JFF in front of them, only Kelly when he came along and we know what happened then.