Climate Change

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blowfly started the topic in Wednesday, 1 Jul 2020 at 9:40am

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blindboy Friday, 29 Oct 2021 at 6:23pm

Greenjam not much time now
"One recent paper suggested that with the large stock of carbon in global soils (about 2500 billion metric tons), we could mitigate fossil fuel emissions (10 billion metric tons) by increasing the soil carbon stock by only 0.4% per year. Sounds good, but the calculation assumes that all global soils could be involved, overlooking that vast areas of land are arid or unmanaged, and that large areas that are destined to warm in the coming years are likely to be sources, not sinks, of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Sequestration of carbon on the lands under active agriculture management would require rates exceeding 1000 gC/m2/yr to balance fossil fuel emissions—values never achieved in long-term field experiments.

So, when you hear of the Biden administration’s plans to encourage farmers to store carbon in soils as a climate change solution, be skeptical. We can and should try to reduce the emissions of carbon dioxide from agriculture, but a net uptake of carbon dioxide from other sources is just not in the cards."

https://www.caryinstitute.org/news-insights/blog-translational-ecology/s...

More later

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blindboy Friday, 29 Oct 2021 at 9:18pm

This is what the IPCC say about it.

B.1.4
Land-based options that deliver carbon sequestration in soil or vegetation, such as afforestation, reforestation, agroforestry, soil carbon management on mineral soils, or carbon storage in harvested wood products, do not continue to sequester carbon indefinitely (high confidence). Peatlands, however, can continue to sequester carbon for centuries (high confidence). When vegetation matures or when vegetation and soil carbon reservoirs reach saturation, the annual removal of CO2 from the atmosphere declines towards zero, while carbon stocks can be maintained (high confidence). However, accumulated carbon in vegetation and soils is at risk from future loss (or sink reversal) triggered by disturbances such as flood, drought, fire, or pest outbreaks, or future poor management (high confidence). {6.4.1}"

https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/chapter/summary-for-policymakers/

The point being that there is very little certainty that the carbon will stay in the soil long enough to have an impact. Then there are the difficulties with actually implementing it on a large scale when there is, to the best of my knowledge, no standarised method of determining how carbon levels have changed. I am not suggesting that it is no value only that the undcertainties mean that any money invested in it would probably be better spent elsewhere, unless of couse your primary coincern is votes.

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GuySmiley Friday, 29 Oct 2021 at 9:40pm

trechery not taxes

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indo-dreaming Saturday, 30 Oct 2021 at 7:59am
garyg1412 wrote:

No problem - accepted.
Now did you want to place a bet on if he comes back a hero or not???
Boags Red will do me :):)

Love Boags grew up on it as a grommet in Tassie, but no bet, im not sure how the media will paint things when he comes back.

Maybe positive in one regard having gone, but they also like to be critical too, so maybe more of the same.

Either way im glad he went and glad he has got the Zero 2050 target done.

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blindboy Saturday, 30 Oct 2021 at 9:29am

"Morrison is among the G20 leaders who failed to raise their country’s 2030 targets. After the release of Morrison’s net zero by 2050 plan, Sharma (the COP26 president, Alok Sharma) tweeted with a call for Australia to be more ambitious in 2030, “to keep 1.5 degrees in reach”.

"Sharma is pleading with world leaders that if they effectively abandon the 1.5 degree goal in Glasgow, the impact will be felt for generations. “At 1.5 degrees warming, 700 million people would be at risk of extreme heatwaves. At 2 degrees, it would be two billion. At 1.5 degrees, 70 per cent of the world’s coral reefs die. At 2 degrees, they are all gone. If temperatures continue to rise, we will step through a series of one-way doors. And the end destination of which is climate catastrophe.”

https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2021/10/30/how-the-gas...

But why would Scotty care? He's happy clapped his way to heaven!

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flollo Saturday, 30 Oct 2021 at 11:28am

Fascinating. Climate change is a geopolitical game in which Scomo is an absolute loser. United West needs to align to gain upper hand on China (and other proxies). We are strategically and ideologically aligned with the West but provide vast resources to China and other big polluters. This puts us in a unique position where a good balance of power can help us achieve great results.

And somehow, Scomo managed to get us into a situation where we are condemned by both. Instead, he should be playing the game so we can benefit from both. For example, West will be pushing hard to phase out our coal production which will put certain pressures on China. Evidence for that is Macron requesting exactly this to happen literally today at G20. Scomo goes and dismisses it rather than leaving it open. I am of an opinion that aligned West would provide substantial benefits to Australia to drop its coal production, especially if Australia is to take a more neutral stance and have warmer relationships with China.

There are good historical examples of such balances. The one I am best familiar with is Tito's balance between Western and Eastern block in ex-Yugoslavia (as I'm from that area). Famously, Tito defied Stalin at height of his power which resulted in the Tito-Stalin split in 1948. To make it clear, Yugoslavia was a communist country, and Tito was its dictator however, he decided to split from Eastern block and drive his own, independent version of communism (more explanation on the link below). Honestly, I hate the old bastard for many reasons but going into conflict with Stalin in 1948 requires some serious courage and you have to admire him for that (you can't even see the traces of this in Scomo).

So, that fallout had its economic consequences. And what does Tito do? He seeks assistance from the US. And at height of McCarthyism (Era defined by a purge of communism (alleged or real) in the US (link below), the US gives military and economic aid to communist Yugoslavia (link below). Hypocrisy 101.

This kept going on for years, Tito's balance of East and West provided Yugoslavia with cheap loans, grants, and favorable trade terms (created its own issues further down the track that are for different topics) that were unimaginable to many other communist countries.

One of the most figurative illustrations of this relationship was Tito's visit to the US in 1971. He was sitting with Nixon in the room full of reporters and cameras and then lighted a Cuban cigar. Smoking in the White House was strictly forbidden since 1946. Not to mention that US-Cuban tensions were at record heights so lighting a Cuban cigar would certainly be seen as a provocation. Nixon warned Tito “Mr President, we do not smoke here in the White House”. Tito laughed, replied "Lucky you" and kept smoking. No one said anything after that (photos and a story on this in a link below).

So, why did I write all of this? History is a great educator and what it tells us is; Scomo is a spineless, low-level operator with the inability to think about medium to long-term strategy. His capacity is limited to current pragmatism (only do what you can practically achieve with the resources at that point in time). He will never commit to goals and targets that need operational innovation and development to be successful. That scares him. His focus is today, tomorrow, next few weeks to next few months max. Reactive mode 101. He sees commitments like 'cutting methane emissions by 50% through livestock reduction by 2030' as giving others power to put a target on his head rather than a goal to be achieved. Hence, he is more than happy to keep the country in ambiguity and keep reacting last minute, once it starts boiling.

The lesson is if we care about climate change (many still don't unfortunately) we need to get rid of Scomo. He is a terrible operator for this problem. We need a Visionaire, not a pragmatist, someone who will commit to 10 things, get 1-2 quick wins, achieve another 2-3 in medium-term, hit 2 long-term goals, and be comfortable with losing 2-3 battles. And to do that, you need to think globally and act globally rather than constrain yourself to bicker with local politicians.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tito%E2%80%93Stalin_split#U.S._aid_to_Yugo...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McCarthyism

https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/united-states-gives-military...

https://english.republika.mk/lifestyle/life/we-do-not-smoke-here-in-the-...

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blindboy Saturday, 30 Oct 2021 at 11:43am

Thanks flollo. Much to think about there. I am reading a biography of Kissinger at the moment that is a great insight into US cold war thinking and quite relevant to the situation today.

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Hutchy 19 Saturday, 30 Oct 2021 at 1:31pm

Viclocal - You made a HUGE call that Scomo's Climate policies will cause other countries to start a Trade War with Australia .

I replied we are already in a Trade War with our biggest trading partner China .

I asked which countries do we trade a lot with and who will want to start a Trade War with us . No reply yet .

Were you doing your normal bullshitting , just typing without thinking or do you REALLY believe what you say ?

Please give me one country that you believe will want to start a trade war with us . France are pissed off with us at the moment and Iran wants to start a trade war with everyone .

Otherwise why don't you stop wasting space on this thread ?

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Vic Local Saturday, 30 Oct 2021 at 2:04pm

Carbon tariffs are inevitable Hutchy and countries that do reduce their greenhouse gas emissions will put them on countries like Australia who don't.
See evidence in the link
https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/eus-carbon-border-...

Here's a nice little quote from the article.

"The European Commission is due to propose its carbon border tariff policy on July 14, a move designed to put EU firms on an equal footing with competitors in countries with weaker carbon policies than those of the bloc.

Citing a draft of the proposal, Bloomberg reported that the border levy would be applied in full from 2026, after a phase-in from 2023."

I back up my arguments with facts. You just talk absolute bullshit Hutchy.

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Hutchy 19 Saturday, 30 Oct 2021 at 4:24pm

Viclocal - how can you say I talk bullshit after defending you with facts about your beach house . I should have said it is also very climate friendly .

"The European Commission is due to propose its carbon border tariff policy on July 14, a move designed to put EU firms on an equal footing with competitors in countries with weaker carbon policies than those of the bloc."

So the EC finally agree that being green is more costly . Thanks for the link as I missed this . I would hope that it is not WAY more costly otherwise an equal footing may make a slight difference . Ha ha .

You really need to get a brain and try to think before posting .

The EU have already stopped talking to us due to the sub deal .

If there IS tariffs placed on our coal ( won't happen imo as our coal is the best quality so less dirty ) and minerals like gold who the fuck cares . Gold is sold the world over at the same price . Same with other metals and coal . No tariffs !!!!

"Australia’s two-way goods trade with the European Union (EU) was valued at $69.3 billion in
2016 and accounted for almost 15 per cent of Australia’s total goods trade.
Australia recorded a net goods trade deficit of $28.7 billion in 2016.
In terms of sectors, Australia was a net importer of Agriculture, forestry and fisheries and
Manufactures products from the EU while it was a net exporter of Minerals and fuels and
Other goods (mainly gold).
Australia’s major goods exports to the EU were gold, coal and oil seeds, while the major
imports from the EU were passenger motor vehicles, medicaments and pharmaceutical
products."

We can put tariffs on their cars and medical products that we CAN buy elsewhere . Fuck French Oak . We grow Oak here . Fuck Truffles . They are a winter food and we grow them here . Same with fish . We grow wonderful salmon and kingfish . Clean Seas will be selling Australian grown kingfish through Woolies soon ( I declare an interest . Have bought CSS for clients a few months ago ) .

If the EU place tariffs on us and we retaliate THEY will be worse off . We buy more from them than they do from us . That is the definition of a deficit . Such a big fat stick ha ha .

That IS a FACT !

Bring on a trade war EU . Like bringing a knife to a gunfight .

The Europeans were always good at starting wars . We had to help them win and finish them .

https://www.dfat.gov.au/sites/default/files/australias-goods-trade-with-...

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Supafreak Saturday, 30 Oct 2021 at 4:42pm

0-D49701-F-9-FAE-4-D9-A-A97-A-FD6-CA3515529

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Hutchy 19 Saturday, 30 Oct 2021 at 4:49pm

Very funny Supa !

You could also have a photo of them with a horrified on their faces with the caption -

"Shit he brought a pamphlet . No one told us you needed one . or We need to make one as well ."

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blindboy Saturday, 30 Oct 2021 at 4:53pm

Classic supafreak.

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Fliplid Saturday, 30 Oct 2021 at 5:21pm

Here’s a pamphlet. Maybe he read this before his road to Damascus about face

https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/au/Documents/Economics/de...

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bonza Sunday, 31 Oct 2021 at 8:41pm

https://amp.abc.net.au/article/100578646

Nice. Thanks Mathias. Great. Another tax.

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Hutchy 19 Monday, 1 Nov 2021 at 8:43am

From the WallSt Journal

Climate Summit to Nowhere
The Wall Street Journal has the right idea in its outlook The Climate Summit to Nowhere.

It’s incongruous bordering on the bizarre to organize a summit like this while Europe is battening down for a winter fuel crisis, President Biden is begging OPEC to produce more oil, China is firing up its coal-fueled power plants amid an electricity shortage, and climate-change plans wilt as soon as they’re exposed to the sunlight of democratic politics.

No matter. This summit is called COP26 because there have already been 25. No less than the United Nations admitted this week that nations have made little progress on their previous climate pledges. But rather than adjust to this political reality, the delegates will make even more unrealistic promises.

The commitments of developing countries are even flimsier and depend on bribes from the rich. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) this week called for more international aid to finance emissions reductions: A “floor” of $100 billion annually should do it, with $367 billion over the next five years going to Asean, thank you. Out of the 75% reduction in carbon emissions the Philippines plans to achieve by 2030, 72% is contingent on foreign aid, Nikkei reported this week.

Rich countries first made the $100 billion pledge in 2009, but the money still hasn’t appeared. Taxpayers in rich economies will be even less willing to sacrifice their own cash for the climate when they realize who isn’t coming to COP26: Vladimir Putin of Russia and China’s Xi Jinping.

Leaders of other big CO2 emitters, such as world number-three India, will be in Glasgow but might as well not be. Delhi’s environment minister suggested this week that his government won’t sign up for net zero. With several hundred million Indians still living in poverty, India needs more energy from fossil fuels, as does all of Africa.

Mr. Xi promised in 2020 to reduce climate emissions—but only after 2030. In the here and now, China is building more coal-powered plants because growing the economy is a far higher priority. The Kremlin’s budget floats on oil and gas production, and Mr. Putin won’t mind if Western Europe goes to net zero. He’ll then have more energy leverage.

Please consider the ASEAN Joint Statement on Climate Change COP 26.

"The Kingdom of Cambodia, the Republic of Indonesia, the Lao People's Democratic Republic, Malaysia, the Republic of the Union of Myanmar, the Republic of the Philippines, the Republic of Singapore, the Kingdom of Thailand and the Socialist Republic of Viet Nam, reaffirmed our commitments ...."

Based On ...."a new collective quantified goal from a floor of USD 100 billion per year, which takes into account the needs and priorities of developing countries."

NIKKEI Asia reports ASEAN urges developed world to lift climate financing over $100bn.

Developed countries should "continue and further scale up the mobilization of climate finance ahead of initiating deliberations on the setting up of a new collective quantified goal from a floor of $100 billion per year," the bloc said in a joint statement issued Tuesday at its annual summit, ahead of the COP26 climate conference opening next week in Scotland.

Yet a study by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, a Singaporean think tank, found that Southeast Asians have little awareness of their countries' climate policies. Nearly 60% of respondents were unsure whether their country had submitted its Nationally Determined Contribution to the Paris climate agreement.

ASEAN would need at least $367 billion through the next five years for its energy plans, bloc Secretary-General Lim Jock Hoi said this week.

Synopsis
China will continue to build coal-fired plants through 2030

China has a net neutral target of 2060 not 2050

Russia will not do a thing

India will not agree to goals

Developing countries will demand but not receive more money

Gretta, will give a rousing speech on the end of the world as we know it within 15 years.

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blindboy Monday, 1 Nov 2021 at 1:58pm

"According to Krishna's survey of Americans, 7 in 10 people who are susceptible to believing climate disinformation self-identified as politically conservative. In contrast, 8 in 10 Americans who self-identified as liberal were found to be immune to disinformation about climate change."
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/10/211030221805.htm

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indo-dreaming Monday, 1 Nov 2021 at 6:10pm

Actually seems more of a muslim thing :P

"Indonesia Is Home to the Most Climate Change Deniers in the World"

https://www.vice.com/en/article/a3x3m8/indonesia-is-home-to-the-most-cli...


Source of graphhttps://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/07/us-hotbed-climate-ch...

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blindboy Monday, 1 Nov 2021 at 8:13pm

Shock horror, carbon sequestration in soil grossly exaggerated by the COALition
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/carbon-farming-potential-overhyp...

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vladalotovodka Tuesday, 2 Nov 2021 at 7:37am

Great leader Scott remind of comrade Mao hit of iron production target with help is of good citizen who melt all wok and machine.

Much lump of no use pig iron in villages and much burn of noodle in new wood woks.

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Hutchy 19 Tuesday, 2 Nov 2021 at 8:58am

Blind Boy - As you know it is not a shock to most . What is shocking is that the world thinks it can and enable us to get to net zero in 2050 without it .

If we look at the G20 position Scomo is right in the middle of their views .

It is very funny how the lefts on this thread are trying to make Scomo look like he has different views to most . He is making a hash of being honest get to net zero but miles ahead of China , Russia , India , Brazil , Indo and the Developing world . This group probably makes more that 80% of the worlds CO2 emissions and number keeps rising .

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indo-dreaming Tuesday, 2 Nov 2021 at 9:19am

It doesn't matter what would be proposed Hutchy, people like BB will always look for faults and yes there is many in anything proposed, even wind and solar has big issues, the old cliché "when the wind doesn't shine and the wind doesn't blow" but we aim to overcome the issues.

There is no perfect answers or solutions and like it or not a road map to getting to net zero emissions cant really be planned.

It's like trying to plan some Indo surf trip down to the detail including where you will surf each day and expecting it to go to plan, it never will, you can only draw a rough road map and then adapt as it unfolds.

Blind boy is a whinger/hater though, he loves to whinge and hate always has always will, also loves to have conflict over anything and everything with Blowin as you have probably noticed, other than that nice enough guy.

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blindboy Tuesday, 2 Nov 2021 at 10:33am

So when I point out that the COALition is basing their response to climate change on dodgy data and unrealistic extrapolations, yeh I suppose I am finding fault because it is a fault. Never noticed any hesitation from either of you to find fault. The only difference is that mine ARE faults yours are rarely anything beyond ideologically driven drivel.

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gragagan Tuesday, 2 Nov 2021 at 11:12am

Did Scummo end up pushing through his legislation that would see an extra surcharge put on top of everyone's power bills that would then go to the operators of coal fuelled power stations to make up for their lost revenue due to the increasing uptake of renewable electricity?
(Did that make sense?)

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Hutchy 19 Tuesday, 2 Nov 2021 at 12:17pm

The 26th Climate Change meeting . Same as all the other 25 . Even the G20 can't agree on what has to be done . I could have worked out the progress of this meeting without them having to get together . Exactly the same as the previous 25 meetings ( although China has let everyone know they were BSing by signing at Paris ) . It is hilarious , though , watching all you Greenies seeing the same thing but expecting something different . The definition of insanity .

It is just another chance for the rich and famous to get some publicity and catch up . Flying there using sustainable jet fuel ( Prince Charles excuse ha ha ) and then tell us all that our time on earth is running out and we urgently need to heed their advice .

"According to the Daily Mail, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos 'has led a 400-strong parade of private jets into COP25,' which includes Prince Albert of Monaco, tons of other royals, and dozens of "green" CEOs - creating a giant traffic jam which required empty planes to fly 30 miles away to 'nearby' Prestwick to find parking."

The only person who has any credibility on the issue is Greta who I like a lot . The rest are all just hypocrites .

Blind one - "COALition is basing their response to climate change on dodgy data and unrealistic extrapolations, "

Finally you are right . No one forecasted that Thermal coal was going to rise 400% in 18 months as demand increased or that gas prices would go up . Everyone , including you , made the dodgy prediction that their usage would plummet . You make a good habit of getting things wrong . Consistent form !

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Hutchy 19 Tuesday, 2 Nov 2021 at 1:01pm

At least Biden is his usual attentive self .

He realises the importance of the meeting .

"This is not a joke. Y’know what the Joint Chiefs told us the greatest threat facing America was?"

"Global warming," Biden said.

Biden Shows Urgency Of Climate Crisis By Falling Asleep At COP26; MSNBC Admits "Embarrassing" Moment .

Good ole " Sleepy Joe "

At least I am trying to stay awake and not to smile . Lets call it a "Snooze Fest " .

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blindboy Tuesday, 2 Nov 2021 at 1:09pm
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Hutchy 19 Tuesday, 2 Nov 2021 at 1:28pm

Blind One .

Yes but demand has picked up in the last 18 months as you know . When demand rises prices picks up .

As we know the UK had a less windy 6 months . Less renewable energy . They turned off fissile fuel energy . The result from the dodgy expectations is energy prices are increasing .

Your favourite planned economy China is having shortages in electricity . Urgently building MORE COAL and gas power stations . Dodgy data and planning ?

Oil prices are rising dramatically and OPEC is not coming to the rescue . Dodgy ?

Europe is becoming more and more reliant on Russian gas . Good planning ?

The whole worlds energy mix is now uncertain . The effects on inflation could be a horror story .

ALL very dodgy . About as dodgy as the 26th Climate conference !!!!!!

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blindboy Tuesday, 2 Nov 2021 at 1:38pm

So why are you cheering on failure at COP26? Do you really think more bushfires, more droughts, longer hotter heatwaves, more coastal erosion, and further decreases in biodiversity, are the way to go? I mean there's dumb, dumber and then, by a considerable margin........Hutchy, if that is your view.

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flollo Tuesday, 2 Nov 2021 at 1:57pm

So much unnecessary negativity, there are many difficult issues to resolve and solutions are not always clear. However, pressure needs to be applied and people need to maintain optimism otherwise nothing will happen. Digging and burning limited resources with complex supply chains to satisfy infinite energy needs will always cause system shocks. We should all be striving to get rid of that outdated model.

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indo-dreaming Tuesday, 2 Nov 2021 at 2:13pm
gragagan wrote:

Did Scummo end up pushing through his legislation that would see an extra surcharge put on top of everyone's power bills that would then go to the operators of coal fuelled power stations to make up for their lost revenue due to the increasing uptake of renewable electricity?
(Did that make sense?)

Dont know but it would kind of make sense.

One important thing to remember.

Coal fired power stations can operate without renewables and have done for decades.

Renewables currently cant supply us with enough energy 24/7 without the support of coal and gas.

One day this will change, but it's currently not the case, the worst thing that could happen is if coal/gas power stations ran at a loss and said okay we are closing down.

It would lead to an extremely unreliable power generation system as bad or worse than a third world country.

So yeah realistically you would expect to ensure coal fired power stations stick around and make money until the transition is complete they might need financial subsidies.

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blindboy Tuesday, 2 Nov 2021 at 2:24pm

Same old nonsense. Never heard of batteries apparently.

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indo-dreaming Tuesday, 2 Nov 2021 at 2:49pm
blindboy wrote:

Same old nonsense. Never heard of batteries apparently.

So if coal fired power stations were turned off next year, there would magically be enough batteries to keep us going????

No sorry.

And even if there was it would be super high risk without a back up system like gas peaking plants, battery storage is generally short term storage to help with grid stability and short periods of no energy supply, what happens if you have a few days of dark skys and rain and little or too much wind and the batteries are flat?

You need a mix of other longer term storage options like pumped hydro and Hydrogen but all these things don't happen overnight here or anywhere in the world.

Nowhere in the world has remotely anything close to enough batteries to keep anything going more than minutes to hours at max.

Australia already has some of the largest battery capacity in the world (along with places like California)

BTW. Its so funny to read or have these conversations with people, the answer is always just batteries, its such an uneducated unrealistic view, yes batteries will play a part, but they are not the be all and end all, and the capacity is not there yet and will take a long time before it is (not just in Australia but world wide)

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Hutchy 19 Tuesday, 2 Nov 2021 at 3:13pm

Definitely not happy when/if the 26th meeting turns out to be a waste of CO2 BB. As have the previous 25 .

I hate waste . You really ask STUPID questions to make a stupid point . NO I don't want more bushfires that kill people and destroy property , wildlife and fauna .

I want to see realistic plans that countries will commit to . Ones that don't rely on China who can't be trusted . Plans that will help the developing world grow and raise the standard of living of their people .
Plans that recognise that the people of the developed world want jobs and will not be willing to sacrifice their standard of living . Plans that recognise that you and all the other greenies on SN will still drive and fly to the beach .

Realistic Plans that will reduce CO2 and minimise its effects .

Whatever the leadership are doing now IS not working . Flying there on Private Jets sends a terrible message . Saying do as I say but not as I do SHOWS everyone they THEY are not committed . They will never get the people of the world to BUY into their story . They are making a complete balls up of what they are doing . It is VERY sad I admit . I want things to change desperately .

You don't help at all . You are cheering them one .

You believe BS like batteries saving the world within 30 years . Things that are not developed and we don't have the raw materials to make .

You and your type are a MAJOR part of the problem . Nearly everyone understands CO2 is a problem . But nearly everyone is not convinced on what is the solution .

As I keep saying to you - "Wake up and see the REAL world " .

Then we may be able to make some plans that will actually help .

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blindboy Tuesday, 2 Nov 2021 at 3:19pm

Mate I previously provided a link to the battery under construction in the Hunter and the commitment.of Australia's largest electricity consumer to use 100% renewable energy by 2029. So who should I believe, those with long experience in the industry or old mate Hutchy whose special subject is knowing nothing about everything?

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Hutchy 19 Tuesday, 2 Nov 2021 at 3:47pm

You are so predictable BB .

Ignore all the important points you can't refute , pick on one item and shout that the whole article is BS .

I have looked up what Tesla is doing with mega batteries . Ones that can't power a city the size of Melbourne for an hour . I missed your link ( you are so nasty I am prone now to not reading some of your comments ) . If you want to repost it ( you write too many posts for me to bother looking ) I will check it out .

In my REAL world job I am very aware of commodity prices and their availability . As I have repeatedly said ( you choose to ignore ) there is not enough Lithium , cobalt , nickel etc to meet the current demand . Even if we find and build greater sources it will take a lot of time .

To build ( after finding a resource ) a mine now takes around 10 years in Australia . These resources are often in countries that bow to Chine eg Congo . I am sure you will be able to ask your mates the Chinese to be nice to the rest of the world and fund and build all the new mines needed and sell the resources to us at a fair price to build millions of mega batteries before 2050 .

You really don't understand any of the most important details . Unlike all the money you want to spend these commodities don't grow on trees .

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blindboy Tuesday, 2 Nov 2021 at 4:12pm

Care to support any of that with credible references? Probably not. Still suffering fromwhatisay3timesistrue disease.

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Hutchy 19 Tuesday, 2 Nov 2021 at 4:29pm

Blind one - you should know all of this ! Why do you comment so much about subjects you know so little of the important details ?

Do your own work as I don't expect to have to explain such basic things .

I have already posted ( quite recently if you want to check and embarrass yourself ) before where these minerals are mined in the world eg Congo was 70% of the worlds nickel and China was 60% of the worlds rare earths ( was over 90% about 10 years ago ) .

Minerals like Nickel are mostly found deep underground ( 400 meters ) so the time to build them takes much longer than an open cut mine .

"Operating a mine, whether underground or open pit, is a large-scale project. So it’s not surprising that mining projects can take 10 to 15 years to launch, and may be subject to a number of major decisions. In fact, operating a mine involves a series of steps, from the discovery of the deposit to the closing of the mine. "

https://www.explorelesmines.com/en/mining-industry/mining-cycle.html

Roker's picture
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Roker Tuesday, 2 Nov 2021 at 4:28pm

If the Build Back Better legislation is passed soon, which looks likely, it will include $555 billion in emissions reduction measures, with massive tax credits for individuals and business. The US economy will thus transform and be geared towards achieving the targets President Biden has set for 2030 and 2050. Accordingly, the likelihood of a future President Haley and her VP Lindsey Graham of the Trump Party having the political will to revoke these laws by executive order becomes increasingly remote, due to the societal and economic disruption such a decision would provoke.

As Australia always and unconditionally aligns itself with America, under the guise of national interest, Scomo and the Nats dithering is merely delaying the inevitable and will seem a bizarre historical anomaly.

By extension, those who would defy the national interest and are unwilling to seriously commit Australia to America’s goal of net zero emissions by 2050, presumably support a realignment of our foreign policy and closer relations with ideological ally, the Soviet/Sino/Syrian bloc.

‘I make it quite clear that Australia looks to China, free of any pangs as to our traditional links or kinship with the United States.'

blindboy's picture
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blindboy Tuesday, 2 Nov 2021 at 4:30pm

The link is irrelevant.

Hutchy 19's picture
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Hutchy 19 Tuesday, 2 Nov 2021 at 4:33pm

Roker - Australia is a huge exporter of minerals and agriculture products that the world needs .

The US is almost a closed economy . I think I read decades ago it is 90% self contained .

Comparing us to the US is chalk v cheese .

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Hutchy 19 Tuesday, 2 Nov 2021 at 5:01pm

Blind Boy - I think I was too harsh saying these facts are basic details that you should know . Sorry but your repeated refusal to believe details and ask for links made me get frustrated .

In my line of work I do need to know the basics about commodities . I advise clients about possible investments . Details like is a commodities hard to find and its scarcity . What size could a find potentially be . This is a big guess as no one knows until the "truth serum " ie drilling .

How much a mine will cost and how will it be funded , how long it will take to build etc to have a guess when it will generate cash ( the estimated Internal Rate of Return ) . What is the potential mine life . How investors react to the timeline ( mostly at the start due to the "Blue Sky " effect ) etc .

Mining companies are only one sector I need to follow . I like my clients to have some diversification .

blindboy's picture
blindboy's picture
blindboy Tuesday, 2 Nov 2021 at 5:27pm

Same Old Shit

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Tuesday, 2 Nov 2021 at 5:36pm

OMG, looks like Hutchy 19 is some kind of financial adviser?
Wow, this is a bloke who says he needs to know about the mining sector and was poo-pooing the idea of carbon tariffs on Australian exports due to lack of action on climate change.
Seriously Hutchy 19, how do you sleep at night charging people for financial advice when you have literally no idea about climate change policy and energy trends around the world?
If you had any clue about where things are going, you'd be advising people to get out of thermal coal and gas.
Australia is about to get a right royal economic dry arse fucking because of Scumo's non-existent climate policies. And the thing is, we deserve it. Scumo's been pulling down Australia's pants and waving our arse at Europe (and soon to be the USA) and saying come and get it big boys.

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Supafreak Tuesday, 2 Nov 2021 at 5:48pm

07-E68-D88-BDF3-478-D-9895-55-F0704-DBD52

Hutchy 19's picture
Hutchy 19's picture
Hutchy 19 Tuesday, 2 Nov 2021 at 6:04pm

Viclocal - So you know nothing about me or my 30 years in the industry and you are giving me financial advice . Thanks but no thanks .

Same as your advice on how badly ( I won't use your language ) Australia will be affected by European tariffs . If you can't comprehend that ALL the goods we sell to Europe are sold on a global market at the same price then you are , you .

I bet I know a lot more about energy trends than you and that is probably not much . I am positive that the global experts at my company who specialise in this DO and I read their research .

I haven't had any clients in thermal coal and gas for years and was prepared to miss the opportunity for them to make money in the recent price spikes . Just like bitcoin I find it too hard to predict . Swing at the easy pitches is one of my mottos . You are a VERY easy pitch .

The Thermal Coal price dropped over 30% last night as the futures rolled into a new month . It is still over 300% higher than 18 months ago .

Vic , I would counsel you to stick to advising on beach houses . A subject which you know much more than I do . You secret feudal/capitalist land owner .

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Tuesday, 2 Nov 2021 at 6:05pm

"If you can't comprehend that ALL the goods we sell to Europe are sold on a global market at the same price then you are , you ."
You do understand how carbon tariffs work Hutchy 19? I'm actually not sure that you do.

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Hutchy 19 Tuesday, 2 Nov 2021 at 6:30pm

Vic - I did read the comments you posted .

It said from memory " tariffs would be applied to countries that don't have the right , in our opinion , Climate Policies . Tariffs will be applied so as these countries don't have a price advantage .

Remember I thanked you for posting it and proving that using their production that is Green friendly IS more expensive . I said they wouldn't stop buying our coal as it is the best quality and emission friendly in the world . That we could retaliate and not buy BMW's , Volvo's and VW's . That we could grow our own oaks and truffles .

That we import more from them than they do from us . I posted the official trade figures from the government which SHOWED how big the deficit was .

I said bring on the war as they have a knife and we have a guns . I said they have always been good at starting wars and we are good at finishing and winning them .

How quickly you forget ! My motto is " Lest we forget ".

Please let me know if what you posted was BS !

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Tuesday, 2 Nov 2021 at 7:37pm

Any trade war would go to the WTO and I don't think they would be too keen on any retaliatory tariffs imposed by Australia.
Carbon tariffs on non-EU airlines are already considered consistent with international laws. It's only a matter of time until the tariffs are extended to other sectors.
It's coming whether you like it or not.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/15/what-does-the-eus-ca...
And won't the conservative scum complain about them

Hutchy 19's picture
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Hutchy 19 Tuesday, 2 Nov 2021 at 8:21pm

Trump never heard a squeak that mattered from the WTO and didn't complain when he started a trade war with China . China didn't either when they retaliated .

There are plenty of airlines to fly other than European . When did you use one Vic ?

Mate , you get so scared at the drop of a hat , Might call you timid Vic from now on .

The European's are too smart and money hungry to shit on themselves . Any tariffs they impose will be for show and WILL have no impact on Australia .

Go to bed and relax . The European boogie man won't get you .