COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster
Vic, I have family and friends living all through Sydney, particularly the Northern Beaches, and besides point 1 & partially 2, you are talking out your ass again you moron.
..... and it’s all Gladys’ problem when all focus should be on Morrison who hasn’t got quarantine and border control right after how many months????
Argh Guy and VL the experts on everything from running a country to covid and quarantine out in force again.
Hopefully the 5 days until Wednesday on NB stop it getting out of hand in Sydney.
From memory, late June here in Vic we went from single digits to 20+ per day and then the numbers got 100+ and it was spreading fast.
Indo, Guys posts are pretty on the money most of the time, even if it’s opinion, it’s valid opinion, which we are all entitled to.
VL is just all over the shop. If he is challenged on his BS he’ll just brush over it, deflect and go into a political rant. But absolutely goes to town to "call out the BS" if it is anyone else.
Let's have a look at his last post.
1. still no patient zero – Yep, that’s out there for all to see.
2. Wide geographic spread of new cases. - Speculative, but very possible, doesn’t take a genius to see that.
3. At risk venues are huge and right across the city. - Different to where else in Australia?
4. Testing numbers (12K) are very low compared to 20-30K across Melbourne during their second wave. – So on day 3 of an outbreak with numbers at 28, Demolition Dan was doing 20-30K testing numbers across Melbourne was he? Show us your facts VL. Dan was still floundering.
5. Crazy Swedish voluntary approach to business closures and mask wearing.. – Really? My understanding is that the NB’s are in a sort of lockdown and there are businesses voluntarily closing their doors.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-19/nsw-sydney-northern-beaches-enter...
6. Really laxed social distancing in the last few months in Sydney. – Different to where else in Australia?
7. Christmas super spreader events on the cards. – Where’s your “facts” VL?
Hey Fitz, All my 7 points are spot on.
I was working in Sydney the other week and I was the only person on the train and ferry in a mask.
I finished my last post asking if anyone would be shocked if glad bags needs to pull the lockdown trigger. 15 minutes after my post, she announced a legally enforceable lockdown for the Northern Beaches. Melbourne did the same for the northern suburbs and then had to quickly enlarge the ring of steel a few days later.
Covid 19 isn't rocket science. You can look all around the world to see what works, what doesn't, and what makes the situation worse. The NSW government has the advantage of assessing the second wave in Victoria. It is so painfully obvious that unless Sydneysiders get their shit together really quickly, they will need to go into an extended Melbourne-style lockdown. Pussy-footing around that basic fact is not helping anyone. Scumo saying he isn't worried about NSW because they have the "gold standard" is not helping anyone.
I suspect a lot of medical experts got in Glady's ear and told her she needs to go a lot harder re restrictions, mask wearing and social distancing. The voluntary approach needed to be beefed up. Sydneysiders need to know what is at stake if they even delay decisive action for 48 hours. BTW we've already cancelled our Sydney Christmas because it's looking highly likely getting back into Victoria will be impossible or extremely expensive with a 14 day quarantine stay.
Here are some answers you ridiculous points Fitz. (Noting that the virus doesn't give a flying fuck about interstate comparisons)
3. Cronulla Mall and Westfield Bondi Junction are big venues no matter how you slice and dice it.
4. Here's some disturbing reading re testing numbers.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/victoria-failed-to-test-enou...
5. Voluntary lockdowns have now been replaced by mandatory ones (like I predicted)
6. Sydney was way more relaxed about Covid 19 than Melbourne. I've been to both places and seen it with my own eyes, especially mask wearing.
7. Christmas super spreader events. Clearly you missed the scenes at the airport of the Sydney exodus. But carry on Fitz and just pretend this isn't a shit show if it makes you feel better, but don't cry when things turn to shit.
The problem is the timing
One & a half weeks before Christmas is the sweet spot for inaction
No crying here, just pointing out your BS.
3. “Cronulla Mall and Westfield Bondi Junction are big venues no matter how you slice and dice it”. – Yep, so are Darwin, Cairns and Brisbane. So again, how is this different to any other venue or area around Australia?
4. “Here's some disturbing reading re testing numbers”. - What was the testing numbers in early June 2020 when the new cases where around 30 at the beginning of the Vic outbreak? 20-30K as you claimed?
5. “Voluntary lockdowns have now been replaced by mandatory ones (like I predicted)” – Point out where you "predicted" this? Nnostradamus now are you?
6. “Sydney was way more relaxed about Covid 19 than Melbourne. I've been to both places and seen it with my own eyes, especially mask wearing”. – Vic I’ve been in Darwin, Cairns, Brisbane and Sydney in the last 8 weeks and Sydney was the least relaxed out of the lot. Darwin hasn’t changed in years and life goes on there. Can’t speak for Victoria so I’ll take your word on it. So again, “Really laxed social distancing in the last few months in Sydney.” Different to any other town in Australia (other than Victoria) how?
I’m not “just pretend this isn't a shit show if it makes you feel better”. I’ve got my kids booked to see their grandparents on the NB’s mid January. I’m keeping a bloody close eye on it. But I’m certainly not being hysterical.
We are 3 days into a cluster, the timing is shithouse. And there are concerns. Let’s just watch and see how the “experts” deal with it and how it plays out.
Epidemiologists come out with questions for hotel quarantine:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-19/northern-beaches-covid-gaps-in-ho...
'But after successive outbreaks linked to hotel quarantine — including Victoria's second wave — she believes it's time to "seriously look at the longevity of this program" and triage returning travellers "to identify if they're from high or low risk countries".
"And they shouldn't come into high density cities, they should really go somewhere like the Howard Springs quarantine station, or some sort of regional area... because they are placing the communities at risk," she says.
"If you put them away from high density living, then you have less risk of it coming into highly populated areas.
"But even with that you should be including a rapid point of care testing for everybody as soon as they land."
It is a sentiment echoed by Esterman, who points to "several sites around the country that are remote but still have infrastructure". '
Good post VJ.
Covid has been around for a year now and the problems with quarantine have been well known for quite some time.
Scumo keeps bringing in people, who have a much higher chance of having covid than before, and he has basically told the states to deal with the problem.
Why the fuck isn't there a national quarantine system? WTF isn't there airport-based accommodation for flight crews? WTF isn't the federal government using existing remote facilities for quarantine? There really is only one possible answer. Scumo and his team don't want the responsibility and have handballed it to the states. It's actually pathetic, especially considering how many billions of dollars have been poured into Border Force. And BTW where the fuck is Peter Dutton? He's front row centre when it comes to brutalising refugees, MIA when real work needs to be done.
I think constitution says it's a Federal duty?
We have places that can be used, as they say in above article.
How good would it feel if virus eliminated, quarantine is remote, has good medical backup, is well funded, and secure?
s51(1X)
But Scumo makes curries and cubby houses.
Is that all you’ve got info? I guess with such an insipid post even you must now realise your poster boy PM is a pathetic pants shitting reactive waste of time.
Paging zen.
It's pretty funny observing this thread Guy, i think it was you who claimed i was predictable in my views, these post on this thread today with you and VL is completely predictable.
For months you and VL have been trying to play down Dan and Victorias huge stuff up and tried to somehow shift blame too LNP and Scomo, but you have had nothing and now NSW a liberal state, gets some cases you are all over it, just frothing for some payback.
Maybe just wait a little while for more info and see how things pan out first, or if there is some big breaking news please share it here as no offence to NSW people but seeing its not where i live its not as of as much interest as Victorias outbreak .
Anyway as for the hotel quarantine system we all know it's generally been very successful in all states bar Victoria, if this NSW issue has some how come out of the hotel quarantine system , well whatever it is you adjust as needed so it doesn't happen again, just like you do with other things in life.
BTW. Whats this Zen stuff? we all know Zen is the nice guy around here, he loves us all, he even tries to be friendly with Herc and tame the beast, classic conversations too. :D
Aircrew have specific hotels that meet standards, written into their EBA’s. So it’s technically the airlines choice, actually their unions, not Scomos.
He can’t just decide working conditions for a multitude of foreign companies.
But yeah, it’s a pandemic so overrule them
I was pointing out back in March how Australian based crew were flying back home from places like the States with no requirement to do anything back at home
Let's have a very simple test Indo.
Does s51 (1X) of the Australian Constitution state that Quarantine is a federal government responsibility?
A simple yes or no answer will suffice.
Actually info check my earlier post, I feel for Gladys, she will be thrown under the bus quick smart by Morrison if it gets out of control, and we all hope it doesn’t.
It’s Morrison who restarted international flights (border control powers) without proper quarantine policies / arrangements.
As VL posted earlier the states (LNP and Labor) are having to clean up Morrison’s mistakes.
Ha ha okay boomer
Are you sure you can't blame Howard somehow?
Indo, see my question above.
Just answer yes or no.
Shoredump, 100% true but Morrison has full border force powers and a mega border force department to ensure his directives are complied with .... that’s if just that once he was prepared to be proactive and do something before a problem arises.
VL is the king of deflection and deniability. The moment his BS is bought to task, he will ignore and move on to another topic.
"Indo, see my question above.
Just answer yes or no."
It's not a question that should be answered in a yes or no answer, we are in a one on one hundred year event where everyone needs to work together and do what is needed.
Anyway you people would whinge no matter what, if the government took total control and tried some crazy idea like trying to quarantine everyone from all over Australia in some quarantine station in NT which would be a logistic nightmare and super expensive.
And there was a stuff up which would be very highly likely you guys would still whinge.
It's just the nature of the beast, that's what you guys do.
Pathetic Indo. You can't even admit that quarantine is a Federal government responsibility.
This has also been discussed at length. It is Federal responsibility and it has been subcontracted out to the states with funding provided.
https://www.swellnet.com/forums/wax/502306?page=29
Top of page 30.
Moron.
"It comes after coronavirus was detected in sewage samples on the Gold Coast, Townsville, north Cairns and Cleveland."
So buckle up here we go again.
After the case where the German travellers a few weeks ago where found to have skipped through the protocols and were only detected because they were overheard by someone I would have thought that things would have tightened up a bit.
Then yesterday people where asked at the airport in Brisbane if they had been through North Sydney, in effect volunteering to spend 2 weeks in quarantine if the answer was yes. So no ID checks to verify.
Flight crews from South America basically being left to do as they please.
Regardless of who's in charge surely it demands a uniform controlled response. Instead there seems to be a lot of blind faith involved.
In my posts earlier I spoke about a video I had watched on YouTube about Dr.Kory testimony at a senate hearing , I also wrote that Craig Kelly NSW politician had asked his own government to reverse its decision on ivermectin. To me this indicated something new was happening. I don’t care that I was bagged as the village idiot as what others think of me is none of my business. When looking for more information and looking at the FLCCC I found interesting information. VL said several things about credibility and I do understand where he’s coming from . In this link are many other links to current information and math+ protocol which is being used in various countries . At first I didn’t bother watching the video as it looked the same as I saw on you tube but I watched again and this is longer with more questions answered. When the senators asked questions about social media in particular Facebook I was quietly laughing and this if you watch will answer VL questions about why FLCCC was continuing taken down from their site. Facebook cops a bit of a serve from one of the senators, believe me it’s worth a https://covid19criticalcare.com/
In my posts earlier I spoke about a video I had watched on YouTube about Dr.Kory testimony at a senate hearing , I also wrote that Craig Kelly NSW politician had asked his own government to reverse its decision on ivermectin. To me this indicated something new was happening. I don’t care that I was bagged as the village idiot as what others think of me is none of my business. When looking for more information and looking at the FLCCC I found interesting information. VL said several things about credibility and I do understand where he’s coming from . In this link are many other links to current information and math+ protocol which is being used in various countries . At first I didn’t bother watching the video as it looked the same as I saw on you tube but I watched again and this is longer with more questions answered. When the senators asked questions about social media in particular Facebook I was quietly laughing and this if you watch will answer VL questions about why FLCCC was continuing taken down from their site. Facebook cops a bit of a serve from one of the senators, believe me it’s worth a https://covid19criticalcare.com/
The flights never stopped Guy.
The quarantine hotels weren’t full of boat people in 2020.
Agree though it should be water tight, and Scomo did not come up with a solution. We the people then suffer from a lack of foresight
Give it up supafreak, nobody gives a fuck about the BS treatment you keep pushing. I tried to be nice to you but the last thing this site needs is another conspiracy theorist.
Fitz: "subcontracted"? Ha Ha, Sounds like a dodgy builder. Yeah sorry mate, I know it's a fuckup but we subcontracted that stuff out to Bazza, so take it up with the bloke in the white van!!!
I didn’t expect you to watch it VL , it makes you look a tad silly with your own theoriesabout msm and social media.
Vic which vaccine would you recommend?
I'm not anti vax but am concerned about taking some wonder drug that has been rapidly produced and hasn't been properly studied.
FFS idiot. The main Senator bringing Kory to Capital Hill is a fucking moron who has spent the year downplaying Covid 19 and arguing against face masks. Here's a good read about the nutter who was claiming covid was decreasing in his state when it was exploding.
https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/ron-johnson-brings-fringe-sci...
Craig Kelly is a lunatic too pushing quack science. It's bad enough having wackos like you pushing this pure crap, but having MPs and Senators encouraging this rubbish is a fucking joke. Is it too much to ask to have representatives in touch with reality?
And let's not forget Kelly was given a lifeline by the PM during pre-selection. Just another example of a staggering lack of judgement from Scumo.
troppo, I'm not an expert so I'd take the one the majority of experts recommend.
Call me crazy, but maybe we should start listening to experts a little more and politicians a little less.
One of Trump's biggest legacies is the deeper entrenchment of anti-elite culture in the USA. I fucking loath people with zero experience thinking they know more than university professors with decades of research under their belts. It's just embarrassing, and very widespread these days.
.
Haha VL you crack me up as soon as I started reading I spelt a rat when the reporter stated no one was wearing masks lol , in the video each speaker walks up wearing a mask and sits then takes it off , they are distanced by more than 1.5 mtrs so this bs reporting is laughable
"Vic which vaccine would you recommend?
I'm not anti vax but am concerned about taking some wonder drug that has been rapidly produced and hasn't been properly studied."
Im obviously not Vic, but i was reading about the different Covid vaccines last night, god i wish i could remember all the pros and cons...but one did sound better than the others maybe it was the Pfizer one?
Will re read exactly why...not that we will probably have a choice on which one we get.
You do all realise that Xxx Xxxxx is literally a few sandwiches short of a picnic don’t you ?
Not much sport to be gained there gentlemen. And if you’re still trying to reason with him......may I suggest hitting yourself in the head with a brick as an alternative ?
I think there’s two legitimately insane people who regularly post on here and Xxx Xxxxx is one of them.
Maybe it is the world’s most flawless parody account ? Sadly I don’t think that’s the case.
You are being very generous there Blowin.
...........................................................................................
A few sandwiches, fuck me, he's lucky if he is the crumbs.
Note to self ... buy a brick
Whats a brick and a fat chick got in common.......eventually they're both gonna get laid by some tradie
Bit uncalled for to question someones mental health in an online forum. Despite that, if you spend all day every day for years arguing with and abusing a person online that you think is insane, how sane are you?
"When you engage and argue with a moron, it is then, that you have in fact become the moron”.
Given the absolute drivel supafreak, blowin, and Fitz write on this site, being called crazy by that mob of imbeciles, conspiracy theorists and racists is a badge of honour.
Badge of honor... More like a decree of stupidity. The words of a moron with nothing more to give.
“Despite that, if you spend all day every day for years arguing with and abusing a person online that you think is insane, how sane are you?”
Bingo!
Give this man a free leggy......
No mate. It’s only been since the start of COVID that I’ve even known this commenter existed. It takes a while to divine the fact that someone’s not just a clown or hypocrite or the fact that it’s not just terminal difference of opinion. Some crew are trolls and others are aggressive cause they’re downtrodden in real life. I’ve believed Xxx Xxxxx was all of the above at varying points before coming to the realisation that he’s not playing on a full wicket.
Best to just give that stuff a bit of distance.
Blowin, you're all over the shop. Hard to believe your post above when you go and delete that post off the AI thread. That’s the “beauty” of being anonymous on an Internet forum I suppose. Good call though. That was a pretty fucked up post given the context of that thread.....
NSW believe the current strain started in US...(United Airlines are in the frame)
US / OZ Timeline provides insight to how that might play out!
US Pre flight Airport tests for (United Airlines) boarding crew.(Procedure)
United Airlines have partner Pop Up 15min Quicky Swab Labs + surrounding Labs.
https://www.gohealthuc.com/bayarea/covid-19-testing-united-airlines-crew...
Crew does NOT need to isolate waiting for results...they can go in or out of airport.
Once test is cleared the In Flight crew access fake negative fingerprick Tests.
(This makes sense if your on a plane...it's quick confirmation & likely to curb fear!)
https://www.proveedoresonline.cl/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/fondo02.jpg
These are the original Rapid Tests.(UA ruled out Homies for their Hawaii Outbreak)
On arrival in Australia the crew salute Dutto then sign the all clear form.
2/3,000 isolate in homes or at any one of 26 Party Hotels with 'Airline supervision'.
NSW Premier : "They also like to party in the City." (Said after recent events!)
On departure...Australia has no power over a foreign work force to enforce a Test.
They stay in this (US isolation Bubble) & Oz cant touch them, but can fine them!
Premier / NSW Health press meeting gets a little weird.
Hazzard:"Had a test last night! Doh! [ NEGATIVE ] I didn't Jump the Queue! Doh!"
Oz Tests =(min 24hr -48hr -72hr) Minister got VIP service or failed to quarantine.
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/the-feed/outrage-brews-online-over-premier-s...
27th Nov Darling Harbour Nova hot hotel Lady infected from US flight crew
1st Dec Female with US strain in NSW Police Hot Hotel..."gap"> linked to Avalon.
Transferred to "Hot Hotel Hospital where she still remains ill...this is a concern.
NSW Govt : "Avalon Cluster is linked to US Flight Crew."
Media Q: Why can't NSW Health [ ALERT ] US City / flight time / Airline / Flight No!
NSW Govt : "International Politics demands we handle the Flight Crew delicately."
Health officer : "Flight crew are of no concern!" (ABC : "That makes No Sense!")
3rd Dec - Sydney Hotel Isolation Air Crew driver (Later links to US crew strain!)
3rd Dec - Sydney Nova Hot Hotel / Ibis Quarantine lady Cleaner is infected.
Has been confirmed she worked on same day as 1st case on 27th Nov.
4th Dec - US Flight crew link is established by NSW Govt, confer with Nat Cabinet.
5th Dec - 13 Chile Crew breached isolation & were (weeks later) fined $1,000 each.
National Cabinet meet twice + Airlines / NSW- Vic again >19th Dec (Sat Night).
14th Dec UA female crew arrives unwell in Sydney goes into Isolation.
Lady: "Negative Result" > Likely self tested with UA approved finger prick test!
NSW Health said, c'mon the Lady is dripping Covid, we need to do a Test.
Crew reported NSW Health to Airline CEO who told NSW Health to back off!
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/united-airlines-crew-member-was-rele...
16th Dec QLD ALERT : (9:30 am) Sydney Virgin Flight [VA925] get Tested.
Qld Covid Plane warning hints as a National Cabinet shot across the cockpit.
18th Dec "Qld Professors say don't panic, NSW have good systems in place!
NSW can find the source & when they do they'll get it under control."
19th Dec "Possible Covid death on UA in US"
All Heard his wife say, "Yes! He has covid." + Airline nods boarding card was suss.
Airline Top Doc's call: "No Way did that dead covid bloke die from covid!"
CDC : "We won't be providing this information to the Public!" (Broken record)
Mid year airline death in July was covered up until October...Long Haul Covid?
Good to see Airlines aren't fussy on who they boss around.
{ News } [ Fear of Flying has been cured by that other thing ]
Some Oz Quarantine Crew Changes > Now only 2 (Policed) Hottie Hotels.
Top guns warn to exempt them, or you can fly yer own Bloody Aussies home.
Sounds like very reasonable everyday extortion demands from an Airline crew?
National Cabinet should take them up on that offer!
Qantas report "zero covid cases since end of March" > (April Adelaide Outbreak)
Sydney Flights with covid ( Seem to have lost the 100% clean crew case file?)
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/flights-archive....
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/flights.aspx#nsw...
I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..
There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia