COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

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burleigh Friday, 25 Mar 2022 at 11:32pm
Rabbits68 wrote:
burleigh wrote:
udo wrote:

Zero protection ??

Yes mate, that’s why we’re onto our 4th or 5th dose. Because it’s “effectiveness” wains VERY quickly. I use effective very loosely.

Prove me otherwise

Contradicted yourself there Burls. Not for first time though. Zero is zero eh?

Anyway, the current recommendation is a 4th dose/second booster/winter dose, call it what you like, for the MOST VULNERABLE in our communities. Do you actually give a fuck about this group? Are you suggesting they should avoid having it? If so, why? If not, why?

Sound familiar? That’s what they said about the 3rd/booster and now it’s a must to be “protected” for everyone apparently, yet you still have all your freedoms from 2.

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burleigh Saturday, 26 Mar 2022 at 12:49pm
Michael Adam's picture
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Michael Adam Saturday, 26 Mar 2022 at 6:26pm

Maybe take it easy on the “vaccine” hesitants ay.
Remember when the US gov told all the kids and their parents in Pakistan to get vaccinated for their safety?
Turns out they just wanted their DNA..
For the greater good of course!
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/jul/11/cia-fake-vaccinations-osam...

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udo Saturday, 26 Mar 2022 at 6:35pm

Get Vaxxed Cap the Syringe and take it with home you .

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burleigh Saturday, 26 Mar 2022 at 7:10pm
Michael Adam wrote:

Maybe take it easy on the “vaccine” hesitants ay.
Remember when the US gov told all the kids and their parents in Pakistan to get vaccinated for their safety?
Turns out they just wanted their DNA..
For the greater good of course!
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/jul/11/cia-fake-vaccinations-osam...

That’s not why I’m hesitant, but that sure is a new reason to not trust any government organisation with your health.

AndyM's picture
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AndyM Saturday, 26 Mar 2022 at 7:27pm

Sounds like no-one cares about the anti-vax movement anymore, it's done.

https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/03/25/australias-anti-vaccine-movement-is...

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indo-dreaming Saturday, 26 Mar 2022 at 7:46pm
AndyM wrote:

Sounds like no-one cares about the anti-vax movement anymore, it's done.

https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/03/25/australias-anti-vaccine-movement-is...

Funny how even now some call it an Anti Vax movement it stopped being that about a year or more ago, and morphed into being a much broader movement and more a freedom movement, freedom to choose if people want to be vaxed or not, freedom from lockdowns, freedom from mandates, freedom to participate in society without the need to prove if they are vaxed or not.

But obviously with lockdowns now lifted, borders open and it being extremely rare for a business to ask for proof of being vaccinated and even mask mandates lifted.

Well off course the movement would die down, thats just common sense, but Crikey journalist dont have much common sense i guess.

If next week, it all went back to how things were last year with lockdowns, borders shut, and vax mandates etc you can bet the movement would be bigger than ever.

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Roadkill Saturday, 26 Mar 2022 at 9:23pm
AndyM wrote:

Sounds like no-one cares about the anti-vax movement anymore, it's done.

https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/03/25/australias-anti-vaccine-movement-is...

The con is over. The scam has come to an end.
For many it was simply a money making opportunity. These pricks will wander off and do nothing until the next opportunity comes around.

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truebluebasher Sunday, 27 Mar 2022 at 3:12am

Ok! We all know that Europe is on the rise but there is some motion in our own ocean.
Something in the Air ~ Western Pacific Omicron Tsunami rises up...
Shh! (Don't wake our right neighbourly Experts!) Had to poach the EU map...23/03/2022 (Salute!)
Crew might check out our gnarly Pacific Wave...every bit as scary.
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/styles/is_large/public/im...

Alert! Pacific Wave is actually reverberating & won't let up...warrants further, detailed inspection.

Mid Jan - Philippines (Record Peak > Death rate stays high & rising end of March)
Early Feb - Timor-Leste (Equal 2nd highest Peak > death is constant)
Early Feb - Japan (Record cases / Death spike > Both spiking again at end of March)
Mid Feb - Indonesia (Record Peak + early March death wave nervously settles)
Mid Feb - PNG (high Peak / high deaths)
End Feb - Cambodia (2nd High peak + Low deaths) *Only Oceanic neighbour to avoid the shockwave!
End Feb - Singapore ( Record Peak cases / Deaths drop & now both rising end of March)

Early March - Solomon Islands (Record cases continue > (Feb) Record Deaths)
Early March - Hong Kong (Record case Peak > Deaths remain at record high at end of March)
Early March - New Zealand (Record Peak is hanging high > record deaths are spiking!)
Early March - Malaysia (Record peak holds high > 2nd highest deaths are still a concern!)
Mid March - Vietnam (Record case Spike still holds high at end of March)
Mid March - South Korea (Record cases Spiking again > Record deaths are skyrocketing end of March)

End March - Taiwan (2nd Highest wave rising end of March)
End March - Thailand ( Record cases & 2nd highest death spike rising )
End March - Australia (2nd highest peak rising + Deaths on the rise )

If it kinda seems our wave is Rising Up...that's coz it is!

Deadly reverberating wave decides when to backwash & on it's own terms.
Notes : *Cambodia stands alone in having a noticeably smaller & less exposed Coastal Climate!
(Well worth considering Weather's role in Tides > Temp > Winds > Rains)

Anyhow! There ya have it...a beast that goes undetected to all but us oceanic minded crew.
Cop a little spray in yer face, did ya! Huey's wake up call to wax up yer Guns for WOTD.

WHO has the Western Pacific Report...help ya choose the right escape pod!
Weekly change 20% or 1m/wk or 6m cases just steamrolled current EU 5.5m boosted cases.
Locked in a Mass Paddle Battle for America's silver 8.5m > Gold Standard EU VIP Vax spike 12m.
https://covid19.who.int/?adgroupsurvey={adgroupsurvey}&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIyvCY87SW9AIVY5VLBR3ZqwifEAAYASABEgK5IfD_BwE

AndyM's picture
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AndyM Sunday, 27 Mar 2022 at 7:09am
Roadkill wrote:
AndyM wrote:

Sounds like no-one cares about the anti-vax movement anymore, it's done.

https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/03/25/australias-anti-vaccine-movement-is...

The con is over. The scam has come to an end.
For many it was simply a money making opportunity. These pricks will wander off and do nothing until the next opportunity comes around.

Yep as you can see by the social media metrics graph no one apart from the hard-core are interested any more.
The graph shows that this disinterest started to occur before the last wave of Covid subsided.
The casual dabbler dipped their toe in, saw it was bullshit and bailed out.

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tylerdurden Sunday, 27 Mar 2022 at 7:36am

Booster rates are stalling despite cases surging in the last few weeks.
Given the recent strains are so mild maybe punters are deciding the risk benefit analysis is in favour of getting the disease as opposed to getting the booster?
Dunno, will see what happens in the next few weeks

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AndyM Sunday, 27 Mar 2022 at 8:22am

I’m pro vaccination - I see virtually no risk in getting vaccinations or boosters.
However I have no intention of getting a booster primarily because, at least with omicron, the necessity just doesn’t seem to be there.

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Roadkill Sunday, 27 Mar 2022 at 8:37am

I have decided not to get a 4th shot at this stage. I am immunocompromised but have decided with Omicron the benefits of a 4th shot don’t warrant getting it. I might get a 4th shot in the future depending on any new variants that may emerge. I am also pro vax.

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Roadkill Sunday, 27 Mar 2022 at 8:46am
AndyM wrote:

I’m pro vaccination - I see virtually no risk in getting vaccinations or boosters.
However I have no intention of getting a booster primarily because, at least with omicron, the necessity just doesn’t seem to be there.

100% agree.

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Sunday, 27 Mar 2022 at 9:42am

As you can see from my post above from yesterday, i think the freedom movement had/has some very real concerns and points and while id never join them in the streets, i appreciate the effort they put in to voice these concerns and push back against things.

That said im getting the booster just for that added protection, i dont fear being hospitalised or anything but nobody knows how they will react to Covid until they have it (which i havent yet) so id rather just be bosted to help ensure i dont get sick or min sickness.

My concern isn't so much in Australia but in Indonesia where i think it will always be more of a risk to get especially traveling in airports, planes and on ferries, buses etc and the last thing i want is to ruin my holiday being sick even if for a few days.

I was actually suppose to get the booster during the week, but had the flue real bad so had to reschedule.

And after getting the flue again, im just going to bite the bullet and get the flue jab for the first time too.

So there you go, you can be pro vax but also pro freedom, it's not us against them.

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Roadkill Sunday, 27 Mar 2022 at 9:47am
indo-dreaming wrote:

As you can see from my post above from yesterday, i think the freedom movement had/has some very real concerns and points and while id never join them in the streets, i appreciate the effort they put in to voice these concerns and push back against things.

That said im getting the booster just for that added protection, i dont fear being hospitalised or anything but nobody knows how they will react to Covid until they have it (which i havent yet) so id rather just be bosted to help ensure i dont get sick or min sickness.

My concern isn't so much in Australia but in Indonesia where i think it will always be more of a risk to get especially traveling in airports, planes and on ferries, buses etc and the last thing i want is to ruin my holiday being sick even if for a few days.

I was actually suppose to get the booster during the week, but had the flue real bad so had to reschedule.

And after getting the flue again, im just going to bite the bullet and get the flue jab for the first time too.

So there you go, you can be pro vax but also pro freedom, it's not us against them.

You can also be…pro vax and pro freedom and still think the recent antivax/freedom movement was complete bs and the protestors were dickheads and the whole movement was a con job based off lies and uneducated woo woo science promoted via TikTok, instagram and facebook.

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AndyM Sunday, 27 Mar 2022 at 10:05am

You can definitely be pro vax and pro freedom but the anti-vaxxers took the pro freedom discussion and turned it up to 11 with their right wing American style paranoia and hysteria.

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burleigh Sunday, 27 Mar 2022 at 11:52am

Not sure this lady will agree with your assessment of the covid vaccine being safe boys

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Michael Adam Sunday, 27 Mar 2022 at 11:55am

Just a reminder: Long term effects of c19 “vaccines” are still unknown.

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burleigh Sunday, 27 Mar 2022 at 12:02pm
indo-dreaming wrote:

As you can see from my post above from yesterday, i think the freedom movement had/has some very real concerns and points and while id never join them in the streets, i appreciate the effort they put in to voice these concerns and push back against things.

That said im getting the booster just for that added protection, i dont fear being hospitalised or anything but nobody knows how they will react to Covid until they have it (which i havent yet) so id rather just be bosted to help ensure i dont get sick or min sickness.

My concern isn't so much in Australia but in Indonesia where i think it will always be more of a risk to get especially traveling in airports, planes and on ferries, buses etc and the last thing i want is to ruin my holiday being sick even if for a few days.

I was actually suppose to get the booster during the week, but had the flue real bad so had to reschedule.

And after getting the flue again, im just going to bite the bullet and get the flue jab for the first time too.

So there you go, you can be pro vax but also pro freedom, it's not us against them.

Indo, why would you get the flu jab if you’ve just had the flu?

Same reason I don’t understand people that have had covid will go get their covid boosters with the evidence of immunity.

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indo-dreaming Sunday, 27 Mar 2022 at 12:22pm
burleigh wrote:

Indo, why would you get the flu jab if you’ve just had the flu?

Same reason I don’t understand people that have had covid will go get their covid boosters with the evidence of immunity.

For years i never got the flue, but ever since ive had young kids 8 & 1 1/2 year olds, ive been getting hammered by the flu and im fairly healthy fairly fit, have a dad bod but not obese, but i just seem to get hammered by the flu while my wife who works in aged care has to get the flu jab regularly and she just shrugs it off.

She has been saying you should just get the flue jab for years, and I'm like nah don't need it, but now I'm thinking I'm going to give it a go as just so over getting hammered by the flu.

Maybe it will help for next time, maybe not but I'm willing to give it a go.

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indo-dreaming Sunday, 27 Mar 2022 at 12:28pm
Roadkill wrote:

You can also be…pro vax and pro freedom and still think the recent antivax/freedom movement was complete bs and the protestors were dickheads and the whole movement was a con job based off lies and uneducated woo woo science promoted via TikTok, instagram and facebook.

I think the whole Covid vax paranoia thing was/is pretty silly most of it based on misinformation.

But in regards to the push back against other aspects, like right to choose to be vaxed, mandates, mask wearing, lockdowns etc

I think the movement had some good points, with the beauty of hindsight i think many things went to far and a lot of it wasn't based on science but more pushed by politics.

But each to their own.

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AndyM Sunday, 27 Mar 2022 at 12:39pm

The thing is Indo, there are plenty of examples in society where each to their own just doesn’t cut the mustard.
Obviously that was pretty much the main factor we were wrangling with during Covid.

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indo-dreaming Sunday, 27 Mar 2022 at 1:20pm

So you don't think people had a right to voice their concerns over.

-The Vaccine?
-Mandates?
-Lockdowns?
- Loss of freedoms?
-Change in laws changing/shifting power?

Or whatever else I've missed.

I personally think the concerns in most cases were real and of value.

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AndyM Sunday, 27 Mar 2022 at 1:50pm

I think the political aspects were much more open to debate than the scientific and medical aspects.
At the least, when. It first kicked off and we didn’t really know what we were dealing with, I think the idea of each to their own wasn’t reasonable.
By the time of Omicron, it seemed pretty clear what the go was, hence my confidence in not opting for a booster.

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Roadkill Sunday, 27 Mar 2022 at 3:28pm
burleigh wrote:

Not sure this lady will agree with your assessment of the covid vaccine being safe boys

https://www.instagram.com/tv/CblFJPzh6Y_/?utm_medium=copy_link

Cause of death = Indeterminate.
Had asthma and that is probably the likely cause of death. As far as I can tell there is zero evidence the death was related to the vax. .
Pretty sad no matter what.

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udo Sunday, 27 Mar 2022 at 5:08pm

How many Anti vaxxers do you know or have seen that are Tattooed...?

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AndyM Sunday, 27 Mar 2022 at 6:09pm

Heaps of anti-vaxxers around here that will gobble any pill or trip you put in front of them.
Makes total sense.

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udo Sunday, 27 Mar 2022 at 6:47pm

Refuse a Needle of Lab made Vax but will put an Evil ink into there Body
https://www.savedtattoo.com/ink-poisoning/

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truebluebasher Sunday, 27 Mar 2022 at 7:19pm

Facts show that the Vax Expert's orchestrated the current rise in Vax Hesitancy.

C'mon! How is tbb's misinformation even remotely possible in our brave new world?

27th March 2022
https://www.health.gov.au/resources/publications/covid-19-vaccine-rollou...

16% of eligible Unvaxed Aussies are only half as Hesitant to get their Vax
32.6 % of eligible Vaxed Aussies are more than twice as Hesitant to get their Vax.

Q: Why did having Covid Vaccinations make Aussies twice as unlikely to get a Vax.

Crew & Govts know that Vax hesitancy is on the rise...can't hide that obvious fact
Currently 48.6% hesitants....soon be the majority of Aussies hesitating to Vax...
How will Breaky TV solve the Vax Crisis!
Pretty much looking like most Aussies Hate Covid Vax...Shock! That reflects all pre Vax Polls!

Data clearly shows where any blame lies...doubt if MSM will out the truth...why start now!

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burleigh Sunday, 27 Mar 2022 at 7:22pm
Roadkill wrote:
burleigh wrote:

Not sure this lady will agree with your assessment of the covid vaccine being safe boys

https://www.instagram.com/tv/CblFJPzh6Y_/?utm_medium=copy_link

Cause of death = Indeterminate.
Had asthma and that is probably the likely cause of death. As far as I can tell there is zero evidence the death was related to the vax. .
Pretty sad no matter what.

Zero evidence? Did you hear the mum talk? You heartless fucking kook.

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Supafreak Sunday, 27 Mar 2022 at 7:28pm

92319-DFE-28-CE-4-E78-9-E1-D-A88-D8-DC24-A6-A

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Michael Adam Sunday, 27 Mar 2022 at 7:46pm

Would love to hear a reasoned argument from the resident covid fanatics or fifty cent-ers for any good reason an “unvaxxed” person should at this stage of the “pandemic” decide to get “vaxxed”. That is: shots one and two. Off you go, this should be good……

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tylerdurden Sunday, 27 Mar 2022 at 8:17pm

There’s the long term anti-vaxxer and the new anti-mRNA vaxxer. Might be some longtermers who are also anti-mRNA but there’s also a cohort who are pro all other vaccines but anti-mRNA, should be viewed as a distinct cohort.

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views from the ... Sunday, 27 Mar 2022 at 9:02pm

To be able to work, to enter venues and travel freely is and has always been my reason for getting vaxxed and I got in early.
Ive been slow on the uptake of 3rd booster and It still applies...

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burleigh Sunday, 27 Mar 2022 at 10:09pm
views from the cockpit wrote:

To be able to work, to enter venues and travel freely is and has always been my reason for getting vaxxed and I got in early.
Ive been slow on the uptake of 3rd booster and It still applies...

You’re not alone there. And this is the major problem with what the gov has done.

They took away your option to choose (employment). And where there is risk there must be choice.

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Michael Adam Monday, 28 Mar 2022 at 9:16am

Plenty of crew fake vax cards being used for venues, employment and travel…. Anyone got a good reason? Anyone?

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udo Monday, 28 Mar 2022 at 9:33am

Only WA needs Vax card for entry is that right - Other States are open ?

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burleigh Monday, 28 Mar 2022 at 9:56am
Michael Adam wrote:

Would love to hear a reasoned argument from the resident covid fanatics or fifty cent-ers for any good reason an “unvaxxed” person should at this stage of the “pandemic” decide to get “vaxxed”. That is: shots one and two. Off you go, this should be good……

There is NO reason for any vaccine mandate anywhere around the world.

We should all have our freedoms back to pre-covid.

Surely nobody disagrees with this.

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udo Monday, 28 Mar 2022 at 10:10am
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flollo Monday, 28 Mar 2022 at 10:11am
udo wrote:

Only WA needs Vax card for entry is that right - Other States are open ?

I traveled from SA to Sydney for work a couple of weeks ago. The plane was packed there and back and other than having a mask during the flight no one asked anything about vaccination or QR check-ins. Other than the masks it was really normal and felt bloody good. In all honesty, I spoke to so many people and not a single person is advocating for any mesures to returns, everyone is over it.

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burleigh Monday, 28 Mar 2022 at 12:06pm
flollo wrote:
udo wrote:

Only WA needs Vax card for entry is that right - Other States are open ?

I traveled from SA to Sydney for work a couple of weeks ago. The plane was packed there and back and other than having a mask during the flight no one asked anything about vaccination or QR check-ins. Other than the masks it was really normal and felt bloody good. In all honesty, I spoke to so many people and not a single person is advocating for any mesures to returns, everyone is over it.

So weird that you can jam into a plane vaxxed and unvaxxed (domestic) but still can’t go to an outdoor pub or footy match together in QLD, Vic and WA.

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Supafreak Monday, 28 Mar 2022 at 1:03pm

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews tests positive for COVID-19 https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7675869/daniel-andrews-tests-posi...

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burleigh Monday, 28 Mar 2022 at 1:23pm
Supafreak wrote:

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews tests positive for COVID-19 https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7675869/daniel-andrews-tests-posi...

Triple vaxxed, wearing a mask in a vax only establishment. Haha you can’t make this shit up

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indo-dreaming Monday, 28 Mar 2022 at 1:49pm
Supafreak wrote:

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews tests positive for COVID-19 https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7675869/daniel-andrews-tests-posi...

Ha ha..hope he gets hammered.

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burleigh Monday, 28 Mar 2022 at 1:50pm
indo-dreaming wrote:
Supafreak wrote:

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews tests positive for COVID-19 https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7675869/daniel-andrews-tests-posi...

Ha ha..hope he gets hammered.

Same. Long covid with some myocarditis thrown in

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indo-dreaming Monday, 28 Mar 2022 at 1:51pm
burleigh wrote:
indo-dreaming wrote:
Supafreak wrote:

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews tests positive for COVID-19 https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7675869/daniel-andrews-tests-posi...

Ha ha..hope he gets hammered.

Same. Long covid with some myocarditis thrown in

I can't post what im hoping for.

Michael Adam's picture
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Michael Adam Monday, 28 Mar 2022 at 1:51pm

Modern planes have excellent air filtration systems. No need for masks there either.

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Michael Adam Monday, 28 Mar 2022 at 1:52pm

Thoughts and prayers.
Hearts go out…