COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

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GuySmiley Tuesday, 15 Feb 2022 at 10:29pm

Oops did I read that original post of yours wrong robo?

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adam12 Tuesday, 15 Feb 2022 at 10:48pm

Sypkan, thanks.
Don't always agree with what you post but always find your views interesting and thoughtful, and worth a read.

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AndyM Tuesday, 15 Feb 2022 at 11:55pm

"Trump's actions have had far reach, and they've been cataclysmic. It's brought in the era of entitlement of ones own truths - to the point where people are feeling empowered to try to break the system."

You're giving Trump way too much credit - as I keep saying, this shit's been going on for decades.
I repeat, Trump is a symptom, not the cause.
Test one, test two - fuck, is this thing even on??

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Blowin Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 3:16am

MacGowan following the science again…..lol.

An Aussie from NSW cannot enter WA unless they meet onerous and exclusive “approved persons” criteria and they must be triple jabbed.

An international coolie/ slave worker arriving under the guise of a student at the local migration-scam vocational college is free to do what they want. You have more entitlement to come to WA if you’re a potential food service delivery provider from Nepal than an Australian citizen.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/western-australia/more-international-stu...

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Blowin Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 5:03am

Trudeau doesn’t care how this looks….that’s how Dictators behave. Trudeau has self declared unilateral control over people’s private wealth. It’s no longer a matter of where this is heading but where it is at.

This is where our future will be unrecognisable from our recent history. The authoritarianism surveillance state is an attempt to impose unavoidable government oversight and control of individuals. The covid passport is Trudeau’s mission as it’s the Trojan horse for the digitil ID system which is the cornerstone of the social credit system. In conjunction with the Central Bank Digital Currencies , the control of government will be impossible to evade.

Trudeau is a cancer on democracy and personal freedom.

The real Donald Trump's picture
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The real Donald... Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 5:27am

obsrvations fro the weekend - the scamdemic is over , everyone just going about their business.

EXCEPT for those queing up to swipe QR codes, YES some silly people are actually still doing this even tho' there is no longer any contact tracing (and the data is being hacked / stolen / breached / sold.)

Those driving around in their own car by themselves with their masks on, probably just scooting down the supermarket to hoard some dunny roll.

Those being boosted and fully pumped on the March release of the omnicon specific boosters, another 3 shots incoming , aw yeah. Whilst international travellers waltz in just double whacked.

IT ALL MAKES SENSE.

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The real Donald... Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 5:31am

As for those still bleeting on about The Donald,

I thought no president could be as funny as the The Donald,

but Zombie-in-Chief Joey Biden is hilarious.

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The real Donald... Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 5:37am

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 5:44am

It's an extremely polarised debate.

Does anyone see a "central" position on the whole Covid thing?

And would care to sketch it out?

Is the public mostly in that central position or are the majority polarised?

overthefalls's picture
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overthefalls Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 6:47am
freeride76 wrote:

It's an extremely polarised debate.

Does anyone see a "central" position on the whole Covid thing?

And would care to sketch it out?

Is the public mostly in that central position or are the majority polarised?

Good question, Freeride. I can’t speak on behalf of the general public, but most people I know in my small community in the Northern Rivers maintain what I would call a centrist position, i.e. they trust the medical establishment’s advice on how to deal with covid and are okay about getting vaccinated and boostered, but they’re not keen on mandates (which is more of a socio-political strategy) and they don’t really have a problem with those who choose to not get vaccinated. However, most people don’t have much patience or respect for people who aggressively push their opinions about the vaccines being poison, experimental, ineffective or part of some authoritarian conspiracy. I think the extremism we see on this thread and at protests represents a very small minority of the general public.

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thermalben Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 7:00am
overthefalls wrote:

I can’t speak on behalf of the general public, but most people I know in my small community in the Northern Rivers maintain what I would call a centrist position, i.e. they trust the medical establishment’s advice on how to deal with covid and are okay about getting vaccinated and boostered, but they’re not keen on mandates (which is more of a socio-political strategy) and they don’t really have a problem with those who choose to not get vaccinated. However, most people don’t have much patience or respect for people who aggressively push their opinions about the vaccines being poison, experimental, ineffective or part of some authoritarian conspiracy.

You've perfectly summed up my thoughts. Thanks OTF.

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Robo Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 7:08am
Stok wrote:

Come on Robo, we don't need more threats of violence from the anti everything crowd. You lot have gone well above your quota.

Doesn’t have to be violence could be in a boxing ring, only way to shut little foul mouthed weeds up like you, toad and Vl, all talk.

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gragagan Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 7:10am
thermalben wrote:
overthefalls wrote:

I can’t speak on behalf of the general public, but most people I know in my small community in the Northern Rivers maintain what I would call a centrist position, i.e. they trust the medical establishment’s advice on how to deal with covid and are okay about getting vaccinated and boostered, but they’re not keen on mandates (which is more of a socio-political strategy) and they don’t really have a problem with those who choose to not get vaccinated. However, most people don’t have much patience or respect for people who aggressively push their opinions about the vaccines being poison, experimental, ineffective or part of some authoritarian conspiracy.

You've perfectly summed up my thoughts. Thanks OTF.

Yep much the same here. Nth nsw as well

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Robo Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 7:29am
overthefalls wrote:
freeride76 wrote:

It's an extremely polarised debate.

Does anyone see a "central" position on the whole Covid thing?

And would care to sketch it out?

Is the public mostly in that central position or are the majority polarised?

Good question, Freeride. I can’t speak on behalf of the general public, but most people I know in my small community in the Northern Rivers maintain what I would call a centrist position, i.e. they trust the medical establishment’s advice on how to deal with covid and are okay about getting vaccinated and boostered, but they’re not keen on mandates (which is more of a socio-political strategy) and they don’t really have a problem with those who choose to not get vaccinated. However, most people don’t have much patience or respect for people who aggressively push their opinions about the vaccines being poison, experimental, ineffective or part of some authoritarian conspiracy. I think the extremism we see on this thread and at protests represents a very small minority of the general public.

Obviously anyone that got jabbed doesn’t want to hear they have been poisoned lol
People are waking up most I know that got jabbed won’t be getting the booster unless mandated for work.
Also wondering what was the point as their getting Covid anyway, and is a mild cold. No different than those not jabbed.
Nth nsw here.

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Vic Local Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 7:38am
Robo wrote:
Stok wrote:

Come on Robo, we don't need more threats of violence from the anti everything crowd. You lot have gone well above your quota.

Doesn’t have to be violence could be in a boxing ring, only way to shut little foul mouthed weeds up like you, toad and Vl, all talk.

Wow. And to think you lot rail against "cancel culture". You are literally threatening violence to shut down an opinion you don't like. Kinda fashie champ.
Just a quick question robo, Do I need to fight that idiot blowin first and then move on to you? He did threaten me first.

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gsco Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 7:47am
thermalben wrote:
overthefalls wrote:

I can’t speak on behalf of the general public, but most people I know in my small community in the Northern Rivers maintain what I would call a centrist position, i.e. they trust the medical establishment’s advice on how to deal with covid and are okay about getting vaccinated and boostered, but they’re not keen on mandates (which is more of a socio-political strategy) and they don’t really have a problem with those who choose to not get vaccinated. However, most people don’t have much patience or respect for people who aggressively push their opinions about the vaccines being poison, experimental, ineffective or part of some authoritarian conspiracy.

You've perfectly summed up my thoughts. Thanks OTF.

Yes that's a good summary. One thing I'd clarify is this statement:

"okay about getting ... boostered"

Most people I know are double vaccinated but either not keen on a booster or are ok with one booster but no more. No-one I know are ok with endless boosters.

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thermalben Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 7:50am

Only people I know talking about 'endless boosters' are the conspiracy theorists.

As per the above, I trust the medical establishment’s advice on whether boosters are required.

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freeride76 Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 7:53am

What's the current status of booster mandates Aus wide?

NSW backtracked on making it mandatory for health-care workers.

So, is it just aged care workers?

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thermalben Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 7:59am

"Vaccination for COVID-19 is voluntary – as are all vaccinations in Australia – and people maintain the option to choose. This will apply to any COVID-19 vaccination that may become available.

There may be circumstances in the future in which proof of vaccination will be required, such as border or re-entry requirements, or continued employment in particular areas. One example of this is the mandatory vaccination requirements for all residential aged care workers which will come into effect on 17 September 2021 in line with relevant state and territory directions."

https://www.health.gov.au/initiatives-and-programs/covid-19-vaccines/is-...

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gsco Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 8:02am

Yes Ben, so just to clarify, in the ATAGI definitions it says:

So the definition of up-to-date only includes one booster. It doesn't imply getting boosters on a "rolling" semiannual basis in order to stay up-to-date.

Hopefully humanity will not have to face a future strain/variant etc that requires us to repeat something like the past 2 years.

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thermalben Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 8:04am

And, the first booster dose is 'recommended', not mandated (except in aged care, etc).

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gsco Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 8:11am

yes however, in eg QLD there are still vaccine entry requirements into certain businesses, and I think this is what people are also defining as vaccine mandates:

And it's this kind of stuff that the state governments have the ability to enforce.

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Robo Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 8:11am
Vic Local wrote:
Robo wrote:
Stok wrote:

Come on Robo, we don't need more threats of violence from the anti everything crowd. You lot have gone well above your quota.

Doesn’t have to be violence could be in a boxing ring, only way to shut little foul mouthed weeds up like you, toad and Vl, all talk.

Wow. And to think you lot rail against "cancel culture". You are literally threatening violence to shut down an opinion you don't like. Kinda fashie champ.
Just a quick question robo, Do I need to fight that idiot blowin first and then move on to you? He did threaten me first.

haha, it's not your opinions it's just you, angry foul mouthed abusing, you are like it on every subject/forum on here, if you can you calm down a bit maybe you wouldn't get threatened.
You wouldn't talk to someone you don't know like that in a pub.

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freeride76 Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 8:11am

So each state has different requirements.

Which makes the Convoy to Canberra kind of weird if all the Feds can do is aged care mandates.

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gsco Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 8:16am

yes and that's what scomo was saying, he was like: "um...what exactly is everyone doing down here...it's a state government issue"

However, the federal government does wield some informal power over the states, as we've seen.

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Robo Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 8:19am
gsco wrote:

yes however, in eg QLD there are still vaccine entry requirements into certain businesses, and I think this is what people are also defining as vaccine mandates:

And it's this kind of stuff that the state governments have the ability to enforce.

Are the cafe/restaurants on the cooly strip enforcing the mandates re unvaxed?, coming up in a month, hotel has NSW address but it's only across the road lol.

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freeride76 Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 8:20am
gsco wrote:

yes and that's what scomo was saying, he was like: "um...what exactly is everyone doing down here...it's a state government issue"

However, the federal government does wield some informal power over the states, as we've seen.

I actually think we've seen the opposite: far more state power over things like health regs.

Scomo even admitted as such when it comes to WA.

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Robo Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 8:25am
freeride76 wrote:

So each state has different requirements.

Which makes the Convoy to Canberra kind of weird if all the Feds can do is aged care mandates.

I could be wrong but do protests ever really work anyway? especially in this case can't see them changing anything just because 10-20k turned up in Canberra, PM said it's the states making mandates he cant do anything if you believe that.
Vic and WA want to mandate boosters, interesting they are all Labor premiers going the hard line.

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gsco Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 8:34am

Yes freeride, although the climate seemed to change after some of the national cabinet meetings with the states, roughly in the favour of what scomo was pushing for going into the meetings.

Robo I'm on the Sunshine Coast. Businesses seem pretty loose about these entry restrictions here. Some mates on the Goldy reported similar experiences.

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Roadkill Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 8:33am
Stok wrote:

Come on Robo, we don't need more threats of violence from the anti everything crowd. You lot have gone well above your quota.

Yeah, the threats only come from the anti vax crew…just another indicator of the intelligence of them.

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freeride76 Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 8:35am

So if Scomo is pushing a relaxing of restrictions/no mandates and Labour Premiers are pushing for mandates, why would the Convoy to Canberra want the the Fed Govt dissolved?

That seems to make no sense?

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Roadkill Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 8:42am
freeride76 wrote:

So if Scomo is pushing a relaxing of restrictions/no mandates and Labour Premiers are pushing for mandates, why would the Convoy to Canberra want the the Fed Govt dissolved?

That seems to make no sense?

Because vax mandates are just an excuse to spread hate and stir things up. Most just hate everything. 99% that attended make no sense to anyone. Many attendees were just stupid pawns being played to make up the numbers.

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gsco Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 8:55am

freeride yes of course. I think most of the demands from the protesters were completely nonsensical and had no basis in reality. I doubt anyone could sensibly argue otherwise.

But like the ABC Media Watch article did, I also personally just cherry pick out of all the protest demands what I see as the one single sensible point being made: of expressing concern over vaccine mandates and also over businesses entry and other restrictions the states are still imposing on the unvaccinated.

I personally don't fear the unvaccinated or the unboostered. They are no threat to my health or existence. I'm ok with mandatory vaccinations for critical health workers. But other than this I don't think the unvaccinated should be treated any differently to me, including regarding business entry requirements or border restrictions etc.

I also support the central tenets of a liberal democracy.

So there was some aspect of the protests that pushed for what I support and believe in, and I'm grateful for that, even though the protesters are targeting the wrong level of govt and they're shooting themselves in the foot with all the completely unhinged loose units voicing cringeworthy demands getting most the media exposure...

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burleigh Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 8:51am
thermalben wrote:

Only people I know talking about 'endless boosters' are the conspiracy theorists.

As per the above, I trust the medical establishment’s advice on whether boosters are required.

Why have the government purchased enough covid vaccine to vaccinate the population 8 times over?

Of course there will be endless boosters, especially when new strains emerge.

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burleigh Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 8:52am
Robo wrote:
freeride76 wrote:

So each state has different requirements.

Which makes the Convoy to Canberra kind of weird if all the Feds can do is aged care mandates.

I could be wrong but do protests ever really work anyway? especially in this case can't see them changing anything just because 10-20k turned up in Canberra, PM said it's the states making mandates he cant do anything if you believe that.
Vic and WA want to mandate boosters, interesting they are all Labor premiers going the hard line.

Such bullshit about the states. Clot Morrison has them doing his dirty work.

It’s fucking disgusting. Bring on Clive in his polo shirt

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shortenism Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 8:57am

Because the Commonwealth Constitution is specific in protection from coercion and/or forced medical procedures and it always trumps the States. So Scomo or the Governor General could make a stand. That’s what the mob want.

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freeride76 Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 8:58am

GSCO, sounds like we are moving in this general direction anyway ("expressing concern over vaccine mandates and also over businesses entry and other restrictions the states are still imposing on the unvaccinated").
Maybe as a result of public pressure?

A decision on whether to extend or scrap mask and vaccine mandates in Queensland is due by the end of the month.
The state's Chief Health Officer Dr John Gerrard said the current COVID-19 restrictions are under review as Queensland's Omicron wave subsides.

"We are currently looking at all of the restrictions that we have in place in Queensland, all of them are currently under review given that this Omicron wave is coming to an end," Dr Gerrard said on Tuesday.

"We're also working with our interstate colleagues as well to see what they are doing as this wave comes to an end.

"We've always said we'd have a look at these measures at the end of this month. And then we'll make a call then and also see what other states are doing then as well."

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burleigh Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 8:58am

Just saw that the dictator Dan won’t let parents onto school grounds (events, awards and volunteers) unless they have 3 whacks of the juice that doesn’t work.

Imagine, fit healthy people most under 40 being forced to have 3 shots of vaccine for the original strain to be able to watch your kid win an award or play school sport.

VicLocal, Stok you have a lot to answer for supporting this clown.

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tylerdurden Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 9:02am

I think the purpose of protesting in Canberra was to send a message to everyone that they’re against vaccine mandates, state and federal leaders alike. I guess the protesters could have individual protests in each capital but it wouldn’t have the clout of 30 000 in one area.
The PM can definitely influence the Liberal states and can maybe have a degree of effect over the Labor states.
The barometer will obviously be the elections.
The individual premiers might all do ok, except for perhaps Andrews. Otherwise the rest might hold their positions.
But in classic ScoMo style he deferred responsibility away from himself. What he could have said was “I hear your concerns and will convey them to the relevant parties that make the decisions”. The protesters represent perhaps a small percentage of the population but on the other hand the way the mandate-by-proxy works is that you can’t really do anything (and sometimes lose your job) if you’re not vaccinated.
So therefore without the mandate-by-proxy there might not have been so many get vaccinated.
If the booster is not mandated then I guess we’ll see, remembering of course 2 500 000 people have had Covid in the last few months

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gsco Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 9:07am

yes that's right freeride. I'm just hoping to see the states show some mercy on the unvaccinated now, given overall where we're at with things. They are also fellow humans.

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freeride76 Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 9:07am

So the PM can influence NSW, where there are basically no mandates and no business restrictions on entry?

That seems a moot point. No?

Otherwise, Labour premiers will do what is electorally popular.

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tylerdurden Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 9:19am

Like all protests Freeride, can’t actually do anything directly but can send a message to any leader that this is the sentiment and if they want to get re-elected it’s in their best interests to listen. Plenty of industries have internal vaccine requirements. If there is a formal declaration that they’re not endorsed by either state or federal leaders then employers are less likely to enforce them.
Healthcare workers had an enforced vaccination mandate last year. You might think that’s fair enough but it was dropped in the UK recently because of a large nursing protest

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gsco Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 9:32am

Yes freeride (although I'd mention that I think the federal govt has a bit more sway over the states than you believe).

Every state should do what the majority of their state population wants. That's just what a democracy demands. I hope the states have a very good measure and gauge on this.

If what the majority wants is not aligned with my personal beliefs then so be it, I'll wear that with no resistance, without kicking up a fuss, and I certainly don't support protests pushing for something else than what the majority of the Australian population wants.

That is the social contract I enter into with our government by choosing to live in Australian society.

If I'm in such bad disagreement with what the majority of the Australian population wants, if I'm personally so out of line with the Aus population and can't live with it, then as a dual Aus-US citizen (surprise surprise) I'll just quietly move to the US and to a state that is aligned with my beliefs - there's quite a few of them - or I'll quietly go to Europe.

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thermalben Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 9:31am
burleigh wrote:

Why have the government purchased enough covid vaccine to vaccinate the population 8 times over?

Got a source? However, having royally fucked up the start of the vaccine roll out, I'd wager they're now going overboard to ensure they're not undersupplied again.

burleigh wrote:

Of course there will be endless boosters, especially when new strains emerge.

That's your opinion, not a fact.

Regardless, as mentioned above, I trust the medical establishment’s advice on whether boosters are required.

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thermalben Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 9:35am
gsco wrote:

Every state should do what the majority of their state population wants. That's just what a democracy demands. I hope the states have a very good measure and gauge on this.

If what the majority wants is not aligned with my personal beliefs then so be it, I'll wear that with no resistance, without kicking up a fuss, and I certainly don't support protests pushing for something else than what the majority of the Australian population wants.

That is the social contract I enter into with our government by choosing to live in Australian society.

If I'm in such bad disagreement with what the majority of the Australian population wants, if I'm personally so out of line with the Aus population and can't live with it, then as a dual Aus-US citizen (surprise surprise) I'll just quietly move to the US and to a state that is aligned with my beliefs - there's quite a few of them - or I'll quietly go to Europe.

Again, you've expressed a thoughtful, considered view that I agree with.

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tylerdurden Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 9:36am

Yes Ben, but those same trusted sources have recently approved Paxlovid (a Pfizer drug under patent) despite no published evidence, just a single press release of a Pfizer sponsored trial.
Trust them to a degree but permanently hold them to account

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gragagan Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 9:41am

One thing the feds can do is increase health funding to the states. The states need federal funding to increase in order to be able to fix up hospitals and staffing issues. Australia's "gold standard" state nsw (according to the pm) is the worst of the lot apparently...

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-16/placard-stories-told-by-nsw-nurse...

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bonza Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 9:41am
burleigh wrote:

Just saw that the dictator Dan won’t let parents onto school grounds (events, awards and volunteers) unless they have 3 whacks of the juice that doesn’t work.
.

unbelievable.

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burleigh Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 9:58am
thermalben wrote:
burleigh wrote:

Why have the government purchased enough covid vaccine to vaccinate the population 8 times over?

Got a source? However, having royally fucked up the start of the vaccine roll out, I'd wager they're now going overboard to ensure they're not undersupplied again.

burleigh wrote:

Of course there will be endless boosters, especially when new strains emerge.

That's your opinion, not a fact.

Regardless, as mentioned above, I trust the medical establishment’s advice on whether boosters are required.

Mate, c’mon we just bought roughly 50 million doses of novavax alone. I can’t be fucked searching for it but it was all over msm so I’m sure you saw.

We will have endless boosters, I guarantee it.

You trust the doctors that have been politically handled throughout covid.

You’re trusting politicians with your medical advice. Not medically trained doctors that know your history

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tylerdurden Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 10:02am

https://www.health.gov.au/initiatives-and-programs/covid-19-vaccines/abo...

Haven’t added them all up but it seems like a lot