Interesting stuff

Blowin's picture
Blowin started the topic in Friday, 21 Jun 2019 at 8:01am

Talking points worthy of further discussion without devolving into insult.

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno commented Sunday, 10 Nov 2019 at 11:10am

Yep we had that for a few weeks after Wye River fire some years ago.

YS - those dogs would go pretty good up at Dinner Plain or the Tas central highlands...

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Sunday, 10 Nov 2019 at 11:36am

Tuesday looks absolutely fucked.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM commented Sunday, 10 Nov 2019 at 11:39am

Yeah that's really not good - blowing a gale from the north-west.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Sunday, 10 Nov 2019 at 12:07pm

crg - the Tweed has charred leaves in the water too. Mixing in with the cornflake weed to create very dark lineups.

I must be 40-50 kays from the nearest fire (Mount Nardi) but the smoke is very thick  on the coast, visibility down to maybe 500m. You can really feel it in your throat too.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Sunday, 10 Nov 2019 at 12:33pm

Smoke from NSW fires is visible on NZ shores atm.

# Autophagy for Health - Just do it #

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM commented Sunday, 10 Nov 2019 at 3:23pm

There'd be quite a few people in the valleys east of Nimbin that'd be very worried about the fire around Mt Nardi and what will happen with 30 knots of wind from the north on Tuesday.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 commented Sunday, 10 Nov 2019 at 5:06pm

yep. lots of hippies in wooden houses in the forest. that'll be an absolute disaster if that fire gets out of control Tuesday and burns into those forested hills.

AndyM's picture
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AndyM commented Sunday, 10 Nov 2019 at 6:20pm

An hour ago -
"An emergency warning has now been issued for a large bushfire burning in the Mount Nardi National Park near Nimbin.
Rural Fire Service Superintendent for the Northern Rivers, Michael Brett, says some residents need to leave now as the fire has broken containment lines."

GuySmiley's picture
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GuySmiley commented Sunday, 10 Nov 2019 at 7:36pm

Talking to my mate who is a strike force commander in the CFA here in Vic. He’s in one of the 55 vehicles and 375 fire fighters that leave Vic tomorrow morning to be ready on the ground for Tuesday’s extreme weather forecast in NSW.

Any fire not contained by Tuesday will be fierce.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Monday, 11 Nov 2019 at 6:58am

Here's a great summary of what's responsbile for the current bushfire crisis, from Anthony Cornelius - one of the best meteorologists in the country.

https://www.weatherwatch.net.au/weather/what-is-causing-australias-bushf...

crg's picture
crg's picture
crg commented Monday, 11 Nov 2019 at 7:31am

Great read. He manages to convert the science into easily readable information for the layman. A rarity.

I'm not cheap,
But I'm free.

Distracted's picture
Distracted's picture
Distracted commented Monday, 11 Nov 2019 at 7:54am

Interesting that he doesn’t bring that stratospheric warming event into the mix which may be amplifying the existing weather patterns.

Talking about rainfall deficits, how is Kempsey, just 315mm rainfall year to date.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Monday, 11 Nov 2019 at 9:37am
Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 11 Nov 2019 at 10:41am

Yeah that was a good read Ben, but yeah no mention of the Sudden Stratospheric Warming which is the cause of the negative Southern Annular Mode.

Will read that a bit later VJ.

thermalben's picture
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thermalben commented Monday, 11 Nov 2019 at 10:51am

True.

Though negative SAMs have occured regularly without the presence of a SSW, and future fire events won't necessarily require a SSW either.

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno commented Monday, 11 Nov 2019 at 10:57am

These guys have a good rolling coverage of the event too, charts, observations, and at times good links explaining it:

https://www.ausweatherforum.com/general-weather/aug-2019-antarctic-sudde...

Most recent posts have been discussing the reduction in ozone hole (enabled by SSW) as being responsible for the negative SAM, and that the trend of increasing ozone hole over last 30 years has tended to positive SAM and all those beaut fronts being further south.

oceans11's picture
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oceans11 commented Monday, 11 Nov 2019 at 12:42pm

Back to wave pools for a moment ........ Beach grit story today......KSWave co.pulling out of proposed Florida wave pool due to build cost estimates blowing out to 80-100mil.(U.S.$ I guess)
This makes Sunshine Coast proposal even more financially unlikely, when taking into account, union participation, labour and material costs (far in access of that in the U.S.A) and site difficulties will blow this price out of the water.
So in Aussie$, it could be $130mill, times at least 2 (for Aussie labor and material costs) making a $260mill budget for starters and going up and up as time drifts by.

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Monday, 11 Nov 2019 at 12:45pm

OMG did anyone see the comments on FB WSL post in support of Greta or some BS

I thought i was the minority not the majority...got to say quite surprised.

https://www.facebook.com/WSL/videos/568833553886008/?__tn__=kC-R&eid=ARA...

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 11 Nov 2019 at 1:47pm

CRG that image of the burnt leaves, mental.

GuySmiley's picture
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GuySmiley commented Monday, 11 Nov 2019 at 8:44pm

The LNP leadership at a federal and state level today proving how out of touch they are with ordinary hard working Australians. Perhaps it’s a watershed moment but I’m not holding my breath.

Distracted's picture
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Distracted commented Monday, 11 Nov 2019 at 11:07pm

The fire prediction paths for tomorrow are off the charts.
https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/fire-information/major-fire-updates

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 12 Nov 2019 at 7:15am

Yeah, not good, the Coffs one..

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Tuesday, 12 Nov 2019 at 7:55am

Fucken hell, that’s nuts. Scary stuff

simba's picture
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simba commented Tuesday, 12 Nov 2019 at 8:57am

where i am north coffs its maybe 400 meters vis heard its worse in coffs,winds on the rise now so shit will happen somewhere today.What worries me is we have a south change tonight i think, which will change everything again.....we have a major fire out west of here about half hour in a straight line....just hoping the wind dosent get too strong from the west north west......good luck to all those potentially affected .

simba

shoredump's picture
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shoredump commented Tuesday, 12 Nov 2019 at 9:52am

I can draw a lot of parallels between our leaders saying this has nothing to do with climate change, and forging on, and the Garuda captain that ignored was it 30 requests from the FO to go around when they smashed up the lives of those they were caring for in that avoidable crash a few years ago. It really is becoming criminal.

soggydog's picture
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soggydog commented Tuesday, 12 Nov 2019 at 10:09am

“Forget about science, warnings from FEMA and funding. Thoughts and Prayers fuckers............save me Jeebus”

Possible Quote:Scott Morrison

thermalben's picture
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thermalben commented Tuesday, 12 Nov 2019 at 10:35am

Updated Northern NSW fire spread chart. 
​​​​​​​

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Tuesday, 12 Nov 2019 at 10:53am

IMHO Trying to link current fires to politics or climate change is totally disrespectful.

Summed up perfectly here

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Tuesday, 12 Nov 2019 at 11:01am

Come on , Ben. Can’t you just announce the imminent arrival of an unforeseen torrential storm on the North Coast ?

Just a huge cloud mass with zero preceding winds , appearing miraculously in the sky above us . Drenching rains and dropping temperatures.

Are you sure you’re reading those meteorological charts properly? Maybe they’ve missed something ?

Please.......

Something like the last 30 seconds:https://youtu.be/Ofrqm6-LCqs

stunet's picture
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stunet commented Tuesday, 12 Nov 2019 at 10:59am

Of course you do, ID.

And of course the drones at Sky and the Oz aren't playing politics at all.

 

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 commented Tuesday, 12 Nov 2019 at 11:00am

The only disrespectful opportunism I see is right wing bottom feeders like Chris Kenny trying to make mileage out of it.

etarip's picture
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etarip commented Tuesday, 12 Nov 2019 at 11:00am

ID,
Michael McCormack's comments yesterday were just as political as anything coming out of the 'left / greenies'.
Guessing that you're of the same mind after mass-shootings and gun-control discussions?

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Tuesday, 12 Nov 2019 at 11:03am

If only Scomo’s prayers were heard.

But then again, it’s pretty obvious that anyone able to influence God wouldn’t be as unfortunately visaged as our glorious leader.

abc-od's picture
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abc-od commented Tuesday, 12 Nov 2019 at 11:08am

A Sky news link??? Fuken hell mate. To think you called people leftards.
Irony much?

thermalben's picture
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thermalben commented Tuesday, 12 Nov 2019 at 11:17am

I'm not making up my mind until I hear what Andrew Bolt, Paul Murray and Peta Credlin have to say.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin commented Tuesday, 12 Nov 2019 at 11:37am

Sitting here pondering the near future and it’s potentially life altering events . With catastrophic fire conditions unfolding in the next few hours , we’ve done everything we can to prepare in every way possible. Whilst we were ridding the front yard here of as much detritus as possible, the near neighbours were doing the same with help from a friend from Canada.

It was interesting hearing her take on events , obviously there’s parallels with our two nations as far as history, culture and remnant proximity to nature , yet it was still curious to listen to her perspective on what we take for granted.

As we were getting busy , a young goanna - still a good 5 feet long - was burrowing into an old termite nest in the tree above us as it searched for Kookaburra young . The kookaburras were going nuts ,dive bombing it and screaming their heads off on adjacent branches.

This chick from Canada was floored by it all. Particularly when the kookaburras got the upper hand and the young moniter succumbed to fear and ran bolting through the bush right next to her with the kookaburras dogfighting above it.

Welcome to Australia.

Incredible place , but it never seems to stop testing your commitment. I’ve lost everything in a cyclone, been bitten by everything from spiders , fish ,snakes , lizards and scorpions to ticks, leeches , birds and jellyfish . Trodden on urchins , been flooded in , smashed by waves , sunburnt , dehydrated, been threatened by sharks , been cold as fuck , lost in the scrub , broken down miles from help , cooked in blazing heat and every other possible way for the wide brown land to turn you against her . But it’ll never happen. As perfect as other places may seem on their day , I’ll only ever be an Australian and this is the only place I’ll ever feel utterly at home.

Sing it , Dorothy....

The love of field and coppice,
Of green and shaded lanes.
Of ordered woods and gardens
Is running in your veins,
Strong love of grey-blue distance
Brown streams and soft dim skies
I know but cannot share it,
My love is otherwise.

I love a sunburnt country,
A land of sweeping plains,
Of ragged mountain ranges,
Of droughts and flooding rains.
I love her far horizons,
I love her jewel-sea,
Her beauty and her terror -
The wide brown land for me!

A stark white ring-barked forest
All tragic to the moon,
The sapphire-misted mountains,
The hot gold hush of noon.
Green tangle of the brushes,
Where lithe lianas coil,
And orchids deck the tree-tops
And ferns the warm dark soil.

Core of my heart, my country!
Her pitiless blue sky,
When sick at heart, around us,
We see the cattle die -
But then the grey clouds gather,
And we can bless again
The drumming of an army,
The steady, soaking rain.

Core of my heart, my country!
Land of the Rainbow Gold,
For flood and fire and famine,
She pays us back threefold -
Over the thirsty paddocks,
Watch, after many days,
The filmy veil of greenness
That thickens as we gaze.

An opal-hearted country,
A wilful, lavish land -
All you who have not loved her,
You will not understand -
Though earth holds many splendours,
Wherever I may die,
I know to what brown country
My homing thoughts will fly.

goofyfoot's picture
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goofyfoot commented Tuesday, 12 Nov 2019 at 11:37am

Indo are you taking the piss?
Surely the evidence available now proves beyond doubt that changes are happening?

the-spleen_2's picture
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the-spleen_2 commented Tuesday, 12 Nov 2019 at 11:46am

Blowin, you left out the verse about the spreading severity of drought, the changing patterns of flooding rains, and the increasing frequency of high temperature records being broken.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Tuesday, 12 Nov 2019 at 11:53am

You think we should tear down any memorials to Dorothy and cancel her existence from history ?

She’s obviously an apologist for Scomo .

the-spleen_2's picture
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the-spleen_2 commented Tuesday, 12 Nov 2019 at 11:57am

No, I'm not a book burner, it's a great poem, and McKellar wasn't to know it'd become the staple for every Tru Blu climate change denier from Chris Kenny on down.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin commented Tuesday, 12 Nov 2019 at 12:05pm

Who is Chris Henry ?

Sorry , I’m not interested in the interested in the other convo going on in this thread. Not really reading it or watching the links.

Just reckon it’s a great poem which summates exactly how I feel . Are others using it to bolster their arguments or did you just pile in ?

factotum's picture
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factotum commented Tuesday, 12 Nov 2019 at 12:31pm

"And that the crazy thing there, and I acknowledge that the two people who died were most likely people who voted for the Green party, so I am not going to start attacking them. That’s the last thing I want to do."

- Barnaby Joyce.

Whoops, wrong thread...

Whatever happened to the 'quotes' thread anyway?

stunet's picture
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stunet commented Tuesday, 12 Nov 2019 at 12:50pm

Latest obs:
34°
8% humidity
Wind NW gusting 50knts

Fortunately no fires northwest of us.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Tuesday, 12 Nov 2019 at 1:03pm

The North Easterly has just kicked in hard here which is a bit of a blessing.

My parents tucked away in a hotel in town , sitting here with the in-laws prepped for bail out if necessary. Can’t see it with this wind ( touch wood ).

It’s not actually that hot. Willyweather saying 30 , I’m calling 26 or so.

That’s a terrifying set up down there , Stu. Some bad shit can come of it if the right fuckwit decides to do something stupid. My mate was driving a truck down Heathcote road yesterday morning at 3AM when the bastard in front of him flicked a lit durry out of their window.

Guillotine would be too quick for pricks like that.

GuySmiley's picture
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GuySmiley commented Tuesday, 12 Nov 2019 at 1:18pm

Opinions ah, even a broken watch is right twice a day.

What I got out of McCormack's triad yesterday was his comments were dividing city and bush where there isn't any division. All Australians wherever they live would have the utmost respect for the mum and dad farmers doing it tough with water and drought. All Australians wherever they lived would want to support our farmers wherever possible. But Australians would also know the difference between the mum and dad farmers struggling out there and the corporate agribusinesses, many foreign owned, gaining/playing the water markets with their rice, almond and cotton mega production models.

The National Party were once called the Country Party and it once looked after the best interests of ordinary country folk. Now the Nationals fiercely represent corporate agriculture and mining and it really is worth googling how many of their ex politicians and executive now work in those sectors. Why McCormack bristled so much yesterday is because it's a very raw nerve, the Nationals are now starting to be held accountable by the bush for decades of neglect and mismanagement.

AndyM's picture
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AndyM commented Tuesday, 12 Nov 2019 at 1:33pm

Indo at 10.53am -

You're a fucking bell-end.

Craig's picture
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Craig commented Tuesday, 12 Nov 2019 at 1:35pm

ID, Australia has gone 36 months consecutive of warmer than average weather, a new record.

36.. back to back, warmer than the climate average..

AndyM's picture
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AndyM commented Tuesday, 12 Nov 2019 at 1:35pm

And someone tried to light a bush on fire a kilometre up the road from me this morning.

Words fail me, suffice to say I would only show mercy if they were minors, and even then it's doubtful.

Craig's picture
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Craig commented Tuesday, 12 Nov 2019 at 1:38pm

Kidding Andy, wtf!!