Next Federal Election

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno started the topic in Monday, 22 Jan 2024 at 2:15pm

Might as well put this up in the politics subforum, to spare the front page. It's 18 months away or so, but here we go.

This is how Dutton wins:

https://www.afr.com/politics/enter-the-liberal-party-working-class-heroe...

I focus's picture
I focus's picture
I focus Sunday, 4 May 2025 at 9:30pm
zenagain wrote:

Two excellent posts Southern and Andy above.

+1

I focus's picture
I focus's picture
I focus Sunday, 4 May 2025 at 9:34pm
stunet wrote:

Lots of outside influences shaped this election but gotta feel like it's the last of the Boomer Elections - where policies were crafted to appease the once-enormous cohort of post-war babies.

At least two elections back, the LNP were wondering how they might expand their base to Gen-Z and Millennials who'll never own houses. If you can't afford the Australian Dream, aren't financially secure, then the tendency will be towards change, not conservatism.

How much longer will CGT and NG hold out against a young mob who want in?

I suspect there's at least another cycle maybe even two given the Liberals have insisted on hard right leadership (that wont change for at least 2 more cycles if at all) and Labor maintaining temporary immigration levels (required unless you want a recession). To shake all that out takes time.

Hiccups's picture
Hiccups's picture
Hiccups Sunday, 4 May 2025 at 10:08pm

I thought this thread might deliver a bit more hilarity today, but these two comments would stand out even in a sea of zingers:

indo-dreaming wrote:

If we are honest it would all be the same under LNP, only difference is we will just see more eroding of things like family value's under Labor.

Plz explain how a Labor government is gonna erode "family values"? What even are family values, cos when ever I hear that term, I think of what happens in the movie Pleasantville, or maybe the closeted Dad on American Beauty. Labor's gonna erode family values. Fucken class-ic.

sypkan wrote:

nice to see some of you miserable fucks smile for a change...

Is the pot seeing black kettles, when really before him is a mostly well adjusted and content bunch of toasters?

basesix's picture
basesix's picture
basesix Sunday, 4 May 2025 at 10:14pm

did you reckon the dad in american beauty was closeted?
I thought it was more complex,
like he didn't know how to express love to his son,
and was confused about what that was..
and why another feller could do that, make a connection..
probably with a background of traumatic things too..

basesix's picture
basesix's picture
basesix Sunday, 4 May 2025 at 10:18pm

haha, yep pot kettle grumpy fucking curmudgeon, grrrrr
they all need to go down the milk bar and get some mixed lollies..
or order a pizza and watch the simpsons while someone plays in the backyard..
it's really quite ok, and on the improve, if anyone needs help, just ask..

ringostarr's picture
ringostarr's picture
ringostarr Sunday, 4 May 2025 at 10:39pm

This shows the result of each polling booth in the country. Quite interesting
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/federal-election-results-2025...

ringostarr's picture
ringostarr's picture
ringostarr Sunday, 4 May 2025 at 11:02pm
Hiccups wrote:

I thought this thread might deliver a bit more hilarity today, but these two comments would stand out even in a sea of zingers:

indo-dreaming wrote:

If we are honest it would all be the same under LNP, only difference is we will just see more eroding of things like family value's under Labor.

Plz explain how a Labor government is gonna erode "family values"? What even are family values, cos when ever I hear that term, I think of what happens in the movie Pleasantville, or maybe the closeted Dad on American Beauty. Labor's gonna erode family values. Fucken class-ic.

sypkan wrote:

nice to see some of you miserable fucks smile for a change...

Is the pot seeing black kettles, when really before him is a mostly well adjusted and content bunch of toasters?

Yes, that comment of Indo's made me chuckle. I guess it depends on your family values. Indo has been fairly balanced today though. I far prefer Indo in opinion mode, compared to when he's in his factual, PhD in everything mode. Although, I can't agree with you Indo on this comment: "Only thing i will agree with is that with so much uncertainty already in the world with Trump and wars etc that people are looking for more stability and dont want more change. Basically better the devil you know than the devil you dont."

No, we all have memories. ALP have only been in power for 3 years. The community knows Dutton, we know what he stands for, we know what his predecessor Morrison stood for. That's a key reason why they lost.

Hiccups's picture
Hiccups's picture
Hiccups Sunday, 4 May 2025 at 11:40pm
basesix wrote:

did you reckon the dad in american beauty was closeted?
I thought it was more complex,
like he didn't know how to express love to his son,
and was confused about what that was..
and why another feller could do that, make a connection..
probably with a background of traumatic things too..

Yeah, your theory is probably the most likely, and said confusion made Frank question things about his own attractions that he'd repressed, so not closeted per-se. I haven't seen that movie for ages and come to think of it, Frank simply hiding being gay does seem like lazy writing, character development-wise.

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Monday, 5 May 2025 at 8:22am
adam12 wrote:

@Indo, despite losing seats in the lower house, probably deservingly, the Greens are still the key crossbench party in the Senate with 11 seats. Labor will need them to pass legislation opposed by the LNP, so they are still an effective political force.
Bandt is not much of a political leader I agree, but the lower house seats really don't matter. It's in the Senate that they still hold power, and have some effective and worthy politicians.
They will stay relevant.

Honestly im just happy with any reduction in Greens seats.

And if Adam losses his seat it would be the symbolism that's important. (in the same way Dutton losing his seat for you guys is)

Its' a big thing when a leader of a party losses their seat, it's a message and sign from the public that the party is not going in the direction they like. (even if Adam doesn't lose his seat, it being at risk still sends this message)

And yes 100% this is true in LNP case, poor leader, poor campaign. poor policy, and just some nonsense ideas like nuclear, or against working at home, honestly in a sense i think it's a good thing for LNP it's the kick up the arse they need for the future.

But yeah similar deal with the Greens and Adam, maybe it's time for the Greens to actually go back to being a greens party and focus on the environment.

IMHO the thing the two parties have in common and mistake that both have made is culture wars bull shit, most people aren't interested in that shit, it puts them off, they need to leave that shit for us crazy people online to argue about, just worry about the shit people care about like economy, jobs, housing etc which to be fair to Labor (voice aside) they have done, so Labor do deserve more time in government and having a majority government they at least can have more control to do what they think is best

This above might seem strange coming from me, but if a party gets into power i think they deserve to be able to do what they think is best and what they got voted in to do, it's like Trump in USA, government's that get voted in need to be able to do the things they think are needed.

And then years latter if it doesn't work or people think it sucks they get voted out, if the public is happy and think its working they get voted back in, but its sucks when governments get voted in to do something and then aren't able to do so. (in my opinion)

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Monday, 5 May 2025 at 8:28am

"How much longer will CGT and NG hold out against a young mob who want in?"

Thats an interesting question.

Labor have just been voted back in via a landslide and have no policy prescription to change housing policy.
So, almost impossible to see them making any changes to CGT or NG in this term of Govt.

I can't for the life of me, imagine a Universe where the LNP scraps those features- it would completely alienate their core constituency, whatever remains of it.

Overwhelmingly, Australians have voted for the Status Quo in this election.

We've had 3 years to look at Albo (and Labor policies) and most people seem to have reached a conclusion: Albo's alright, bit of a plodder, but basically a decent bloke who is OK for a pollie and won't do anything stupid or rash.

So, to answer the question, I can't see any potential for a shift in housing policy for a long, long time.

The Greens would be the only party with any potential to advocate for change and they've just been wiped out.
Teals are just Liberal-lite's who believe in climate change.
Teal voters don't want their investment homes whacked.