Vaccinate or not
Actually Blowin, India did have one of the strictest lockdowns in the world for the 1st wave.
And 4 thousand preventable deaths daily isn't something a first world country like Australia would countenance, even adjusted for whatever it is population adjusted.
People just won't accept the death toll and hospitalisations that would result from "letting it rip", especially when we have vaccines of reasonable efficacy available.
Australia would never face 4000 deaths per day. Where’d that come from? Australia faces thousands of deaths every month from smoking and fast food and we never stop to pause. You are focusing on the granularity of a single issue in a manner which is completely abnormal. That is the point you are missing.
I’m not suggesting let it rip.
I don’t particularly want the vaccine. Vaccinate and protect the vulnerable and others who want it. The vaccine does not prevent the spread of Covid. There is no justification for coercing people to take the vaccine.
No one should even countenance making me taking a substance which may cause me harm and I don’t want. Fuck that.
The reasoning that I may harm others by my actions can be extrapolated to virtually any activity yet no one does this. I’ve just shown how air particulate pollution kills millions in India alone. Is anyone publicly declaring they are no longer driving in order to save the lives of millions of vulnerable Indian victims from a horrible death….no. What’s the difference.
The old people around me are aware of the risks and make their choices to protect themselves or not. As it should be. There is no justification for trying to shame or guilt me into injecting a substance into my body UNNECESSARILY when that substance has killed and harmed others.
Particularly when people are now up to their third vaccine injection and still getting the virus and still able to transmit the virus.
Far as I can see, no-one is coercing you.
There's no sign of vaccines being mandated by the Govt, which means private businesses will be hesitant to insist.
You may not be able to attend places where lots of people are, but that's just a natural consequence.
The world is full of natural consequences.
If I skydive and decide I don't want to be coerced into pulling my chute, hitting the ground will be a natural consequence of my decision.
First world countries have done a lot to reduce air pollution, and India and China will do likewise, so I'm not quite sure how your comparison is valid.
To be honest, I don't see any prospect of the vaccine being mandated, and I'm fine with that.
I see reason and persuasion at work, not shaming and coercion.
As for the vaccines, seems very effective at preventing serious disease (hospitalisation/death), reasonably effective at limiting transmission - not perfect but better than not being vaccinated.
For a Novel CoronaVirus, thats a pretty good result.
The largest number of people being hospitalised now in the USA from the Delta Variant are in the 18-49 age group according to the CDC.
That changes the equation for me as far as risk assessment goes.
I need to work, feed a family.
Reducing the risk of ending up in hospital from a highly contagious virus that will get here sooner or later seems rational.
Old mate from Sydney was a Covid denier apparently , until he was too sick to ignore it, now he's in ICU.
He's 50, in good health, or was before he caught the "rona.
probably a long road back now for him.
Brutus said :
“Blown, you say,"But the attention given to Covid is completely out of proportion to its impact on society."........I call this statement Ostrich syndrome........the impact on society will change the way we live forever ....but you think(thankfully a miniscule minority) the attention Covid receives is out of proportion....even though it has changed the way mankind lives and affects the future wellbeing of our current civilization........“
Not sure how much simpler I can make it for you Brutus. You say that India’s 500 deaths per day should “ change the way mankind lives and affects the future wellbeing of our current civilisation”*. But you don’t even give a single thought to the fact that every single day roughly 2740 people die in India from polluted air alone. Do you ever think to not drive your car because of these dying Indians? No, of course not. You don’t give a fuck because every newspaper and television station and media outlet is making a huge fucking deal out of these deaths.
No one cares, let alone alters civilisation overnight because of it. Smoking kills MILLIONS more people than Covid yet smoking isn’t even banned. Hospitals are clogged with smokers every day of every year but no one shames smokers…..including pot smokers.
Blowin wrote:Surfing saves me.
Literally. Things get weird without it.
Time for another surf mate.
“No one is coercing you to get the vaccine .”
Fuck….go pick up a newspaper mate, The social pressure is unbelievable. Craig was on here yesterday telling people to “ pull their weight” FFS. How’s the mentality being fomented by the media! I care directly and indirectly for the health and well-being of two pairs of elderly vulnerable people ( up last night 3 times ) plus I’ll soon enough going to be caring for a vulnerable disabled person my age, yet some fabulous and care free 30 something feels emboldened to tell me to pull my weight? Fuck off.
BTW- Do me a favour and stop raising the “ healthy 50 year old denier is sick “ routine. Yes, people will get sick and they will die. No one is denying this. But raising the unlikely exception and trying to present it as the rule is far beyond you. Watch the media fail to ever mention if he walks out of hospital or cover entire front pages if he dies.
Blowin, we need everyone’s help to get us over the line in giving everyone who wants a vaccine time to do so. I agree it’s taking a long time and lockdown sux. But can you do it for mates, all your aussie mates? Everyone hates lockdown, and I’ll be right by your side if everyone has been offered and lockdowns continue, arguing how ridiculous it is. For now though, it’s time to dig deep for your country
blowin, FFS Covid is contagious....would you agree with that ?????
Air pollution/car accidents/smoking etc is not contagious ????
I am not sure what you will answer to the above 2 questions, but if you look at NSW right now , what would be your remedy to the current Covid outbreak be ?
Those who feel vulnerable should protect themselves with social distancing and masks. Voluntary vaccinations for the vulnerable and anyone else who has no problem with it. Problem solved. Contact tracing and quarantine to slow the spread of the virus through the community. Anyone feeling sick isolated. Dedicated and appropriate federal quarantine facilities for international arrivals.
The rest of life as normal.
Spread slows, natural immunity achieved, hospital system not overwhelmed. Stick domestic vaccine passports and vaccine coercion in your arse.
"But raising the unlikely exception and trying to present it as the rule is far beyond you."
I thought that too.
The facts are now that people 18-49 make up the biggest demographic in hospital in the USA. So it's not the exception anymore.
I say that with zero hype. It's just the way it is.
I was probably vaccine hesitant until sometime this year - thinking it would be unlikely we'd be dealing with it here and thus why get a jab.
thats changed.
I don't think a few comments on a surfing message board or some rah-rah front page on the papers consists of coercion.
Just ignore it if you don't like it.
No coercion?
What do you think the concept of a vaccine passport and discrimination based on vaccine status is if not coercion?
“Yeah, we don’t discriminate against religions here …..but you can’t come in if you’re Jewish”
Sprout- Surf is dung here today. Went for a walk up the beach into town for a coffee and now I’m making fly screen doors to combat the approaching blowfly invasion. Hard night.
Rant over. And……breathe.
Blowin wrote:Incorrect Indo.
The statistics are calculated on the simple relationship between how many people have died as a percentage of the number of people who have caught it.
You think everyone in the world needs to catch AIDS to determine the case fatality rate of AIDS?
Also - In over 18 months 4.3 million people globally have died with Covid. In 18 months over 15 million people globslly die from smoking…..and that’s EVERY 18 months . How many people have died from smoking amongst your typical Indo villagers? I’d suggest it was many. Does anyone in Indo give a fuck about smoking desths? No. Are people who sell cigarettes in Indo called granny killers and told to “ pull their weight” ? No.
Even if that's true Covid is much more contagious, and then look at the difference between the first wave of Covid to the delta strain, who knows what the next strain will be like it could be even more contagious and it could be more dangerous to even younger people, we just don't know, thats the real scary part.
Comparing smoking to Covid is silly, smoking is a choice pretty much everyone these days know the dangers and can choose to roll the dice, but Covid isn't a choice its a risk that we all take, although we can help reduce the risk by getting the vaccine and also help prevent transmission.
Where’s the discrimination based on vaccine status?
Irrespective of the "% this and the % that" in risk realities of the virus and the vaccine you believe, here is the decision matrix that matters....
Probability of using persuasion or bundles of facts or even protests to show virus risk is less than perceived or the vaccine is not so important, to allay the masses personal fears, to stifle media fear stories and to make political leaders act with a less risk adverse approach in any near-term time frame - less than 5%
... and the likelihood of lots of people taking this approach acting to significantly delay a move away from lockdowns - 80% plus.
Probability of vaccination, in the near term, hitting a level where the majority accepts the risk of a shift to living and managing covid as another one of many illnesses - greater than 98%
Choose your odds and argue or cease to argue accordingly.
Being "right" is not always the best or only path to a desired outcome.
Nice one Blowin, dung here too and did the same thing - good old walk for a coffee, fresh air, clear the head and self-induced state of irritation from too much media consumption in it's various forms. Best of luck with the flies mate, Summer's approaching all too quickly it seems.
"..."why don't people go head to head in debate anymore?"
Science doesn't advance from head-to-head debates. Science is about theory and experiment. And not just one experiment, but lots."
well i think you are a bit wrong there kneelo...
there's lots of debate amongst the experiments. not least to determine what is important to direct what's important to experiment on. what's in and out re. expeeiments. and whether scientific method has been adequately applied to said experiments...
that's what science is, and has been totally smothered and steamrolled over by some re. corona
"...On Invermectin, its possible that it has some effect, but this will be put to the test by more blind trials. It's also important to weigh the side-effects with the effectiveness. If this is a miracle cure, it will be easily proved in independently conducted trials. Until that day, it's at best a "maybe"."
mate, do you have some 'evidence' that side effects are significant? ...ivermectin has been used for decades very safely. the machine has totally overstated how' dangerous' this drug is ...and that other one... in an attempt to quash any debate. not many people are claiming it as a supposed miracle cure, just those that want to dismiss it's effectiveness
it's pretty clear it has a role to play amongst a suite of solutions, not least - and perhsps only - in developing countries like india and indonesia...
"Re head-to-head debates, it's not just about science, it's about politics and ideas in general.
Debate has died, and there is only one truth/narrative. Questioning the orthodoxy is no longer having a debate, it's being a wacko conspiracy theorist.
Re Ivermectin, it's obvious that it has positive effects, and it has been used safely for decades. So why not use it more widely? Why indeed have a complete hissy fit over it, as so many have had."
why the constant hissy fits?
...seriously?!
...it's very unbecoming of professional and reasonable people... especially when you are trying to present or encourage a position and / or solution...
as you say, it's right throughout society now, regardless of the issue...
I think you mentioned you've worked in universities, assuming you are not the toilet cleaner, would you care to put forward why debate is so on the nose? and why only an accepted narrative is... well... accepted...
I have my theories... and vj has put forth some good potential reasons in the past, but I would be most interested as to why, you - as someone in the system - believes we are at this particularly toxic point in history re. discussing issues and potential solutions...
it really is not working... the overzealousness to control the narrative really does just give the true nutters endless ammunition...
this has really come to a head around corona, where the nuttyest of nutty have gained a massive audience (and growing...) ...while some crew on here like to throw around the new catch all slur of 'conspiracy theorist' way too readily and flippanty... i believe it's quite easy to determine who is nutty... who is only half nutty... who is contankarous... and who is just cynical and absolutely done tired of bullshit...
with there really only being about 2-3 regular contributors on here who even go close to beng a 'conspiracy theorist'
"Particularly when people are now up to their third vaccine injection and still getting the virus and still able to transmit the virus."
this part is particularly laughable
it's a stop gap measure at best, and barely deserves to be classed as a vaccine, considering the standards, efficacy, and safety set by other (real) vaccines...
if one does count the crew that died from flu in the past as now falling due to corona, the call for mandatory vaccines is totally overblown...
once again corona just displays the gross inequalities that have developed in the world... talk to indo's and the like... pretty sure the vast majority would appreciate all the attention and resources focussed on corona to have been focussed on dengue, malaria, or a heap of other worthy causes...
which isn't a call to let it rip, it just shows the gross inequalities and warped priorities that have been allowed to dominate in the modern context
as someone astutely pointed out way back, imagine if bill gates and his white knight billiionaire mates put all their money, focus, and resources into feeding the poor and various other basic health issues that could be addressed overnight...
sypkan wrote:it's pretty clear it has a role to play amongst a suite of solutions, not least - and perhsps only - in developing countries like india and indonesia...
A mate of mine contracted Covid in Nigeria about a month back. Medical care is not exactly world class there so he toughed it out in his hotel room. At one stage things got really bad and the local doc prescribed Ivermectin for him. He reckons it definitely helped with the severity of his condition. That kind of first hand information does make me now think that reasonable alternatives should maybe be considered with this virus.
"Keeldude, does that mean you had 1st jab AZ and 2nd moderna? Or two of each?"
One of each. In Canada they switched away from AZ, and they consider Pfizer/Moderna vaccines interchangeable, though moderna seems to be a higher dose.
Sypkan, did I completely misread your post/reply to mine, or did you misread mine?
I think we see things pretty much the same way, and while I'm not sure exactly WHY the western world has devolved to this stage, it is very bloody apparent that it has. I've mentioned this before, and it may sound melodramatic, but every day I'm reminded of 1984; of The Gulag Archipelago; of Hannah Arendt's writings on totalitarianism. The Thought Police; The State; The only way to think.
I'm not an academic, and don't work in the university system. I have an MSc.
To freeride and others: do we have an accepted definition of 'in good health'? I'm genuinely interested. A large percentage of 50ish year olds in my area I wouldn't consider (in my opinion only) to be in particularly good health based on diet, exercise, alcohol consumption etc.
"Old mate from Sydney was a Covid denier apparently , until he was too sick to ignore it, now he's in ICU.
He's 50, in good health, or was before he caught the "rona."
it's a good question.
most likely most people by the time they are 50 have something wrong if you look hard enough.
My mail, the guy had no obvious impediments : overweight , diabetic etc etc.
I guess the point is: this delta variant is affecting those younger and not obviously slipping off the plate already.
Thats according to the information I can find.
If someone shows me information to the contrary I'm open to changing my mind.
This pandemic has shown how few people can comprehend things like basic probability and exponential growth.
Hazrus wrote:This pandemic has shown how few people can comprehend things like basic probability and exponential growth.
Totally, and if you want to get a better idea on projections re the current outbreak, Gerg is the man, he's all over it.
We're heading for 500 in the next week or two..
https://twitter.com/Gergyl/status/1424551219377307649/photo/1
More than anything Covid has revealed how vulnerable many people are to propaganda.
NSW has never seen anything like this before….OMG!!!!!!!
Four years ago this week.
Blowin, you're correct on a lot of fronts.
The ethical dilemmas of economic rationalisation exist all day every day in health care. As do public health mandates vs incentivisation of better choices. They are everywhere all around us all day but Covid has really highlighted them starkly for us.
It is a measurable disease, easy to quantify and therefore the political survival of our decision makers is very much dependent on the numbers, even if there are enormous costs of their decisions. Provided those costs are not measurable or directly attributable to their decisions then they are fine.
The vaccine will not be mandated by our government nor I suggest by any.
The problem is if it's mandated then who takes responsibility for the complications?
A round about way of mandating it is to make it virtually impossible to live a normal life without getting the vaccine. Still your choice but you can't do basically anything in a crowd unless you have it.
This is the coercion and discrimination Blowin talks about Freeride.
It's a medicine and I think it is a basic human right to be able to make an informed decision about what medicines go into your body. There are compromises all over that, particularly in emergencies or when you are unconscious but if there is an opportunity for informed consent then it should honoured.
Seat belts are an interesting example. They are mandated in a sense that it is illegal but obviously each individual can make a decision to not wear it and run the risk of a fine and/or more serious injury than if they didn't wear them. But nothing is going into their body, and the risks are all individual. However some people in this country don't wear them, even though they have the opportunity. In some countries many, many people don't wear them eg SE Asia and Africa.
So the comparisons of seat belts vs vaccines in my opinion is only partially relevant.
Ethical dilemmas are all around us and there is no clear answer on vaccines. But the balance of risks, like seat belts, appears to be in favour of having the vaccine.
However, I respect the right of anyone to not get vaccinated nor wear a seat belt, even if their risk assessment is different to mine.
To throw a further spanner in the works, actions that harm other individuals are frequently mandated against but it's a sliding scale between very direct and largely indirect....an individual not getting vaccinated is very far down the indirect end.
In summary, there is no easy answer.
After the paper published a few days ago, it appears the balance of evidence is in favour of Ivermectin. At the very least, it appears that the complications are very rare and minor.
My personal stance is that I am vaccinated and if I am considered a close contact or actually get the virus I will take Ivermectin. But that's my risk assessment, plenty of others would disagree and to quote Guided by Voices "that's alright with me"
Here’s a chart similar to yours Craig.
There ya go Blowin.. and that's with influenza, which is less contagious and deadly than COVID.
Can see how it would go if the whole population was exposed to COVID, like when influenza goes through. Just multiply those numbers.
My good mate's brother and sister-in-law live in Indo (her family's Indonesian).
The situation there is way worse than reported due to this Delta variant. Everyone has at least one person in their family, workplace or school that has died from COVID.
My mate's sister-in-law has this experience last month:
* Grandmother died
* Her boss at work died
* Her head of HR died
That's all I know about.
Hazrus wrote:My good mate's brother and sister-in-law live in Indo (her family's Indonesian).
The situation there is way worse than reported due to this Delta variant. Everyone has at least one person in their family, workplace or school that has died from COVID.
My mate's sister-in-law has this experience last month
Grandmother died
Her boss at work died
Her head of HR died
Oh man so heavy, just the flu eh..
Craig - Why do you pretend that the virus increases exponentially unto eternity? Virtually every single outbreak in every single country has had a wave of infection which has risen and fallen over the same time frame, irrespective of mitigation.
3-4 months max. We are halfway in. Numbers will peak before long then decline. Why doesn’t your ever lovin’ model show this?
Lock yourself in your basement then Craig. Stick yourself full of needles. I don’t give a fuck just keep YOUR shit away from ME.
No one is coerced into taking a flu vaccine. No one gives a fuck about the flu. It spreads unimpeded. I told you how Covid should be mitigated but you want the full authoritarian panic. Leave me out of it.
Speaking of numbers and probability, this seems strange to me:
Those who think the risks/effects of COVID are not that bad = those who think the vaccine side effects are a deal-breaker.
Why? I’ve got no fear of a virus I believe my body is strong enough to cope with but I have existing issues with injecting shit into my body. Especially if I dont want it or need it.
"A round about way of mandating it is to make it virtually impossible to live a normal life without getting the vaccine. Still your choice but you can't do basically anything in a crowd unless you have it.
This is the coercion and discrimination Blowin talks about Freeride."
I get that TD.
But that is hypothetical, proposed, not current.
No one is preventing Blowin from riding public transport, or doing anything right now, right?
Maybe next year he can't go to the footy or Indo, but they seem more sovereign decisions made by businesses/govts and entirely natural consequences to me.
He's not going to be fined and have points taken off his licence, like not wearing a seatbelt, if he cruises around unvaccinated.
From that perspective I'd argue the state has far more coercive power over mandated seatbelt wearing.
What current coercion/discrimination exists wrt to the Covid vaccine?
I can't even see any carrots, let alone a big stick.
Hazrus-
My uncle in law had the vaccine - died
My mother had the vaccine - hospitalised
My mother in law had the vaccine- fucked up.
Shortenism,
I'd bet if your kid got CV19, you'd be the 1st to take them to intensive care; and you'd be demanding immediate attention at a public hospital, 'coz you pay tax (on your social security support payments) (if that's not an oxymoron).
Or maybe just move to Ignorance Is Bliss Island and stay there, instead of reaping the benefits of a fully functioned Australian society as a "taker".
Alternatively, try googling "Coronavirus global statistics" and educate yourself on what's going on in the real world. It's a real live war zone.
I was speaking to a mate in the UK on the weekend, they call Australia "Oz-catraz" (AKA Alcatraz - the prison island in Cali). They think it's laughable that Australian's still don't "get" that vaccination is the only cure for CV19, they think we are idiots.
Read well Shortenism; and if you'd prefer not to read authoritative statistics, so as to keep your head-in-the-sand, then keep your ill-considered opinions to yourself, as its actually really disrespectful to read your drivel when there are so many dead people on the planet from the virus already (4m +) and way more to come.
RR
Blowin wrote:Craig - Why do you pretend that the virus increases exponentially unto eternity? Virtually every single outbreak in every single country has had a wave of infection which has risen and fallen over the same time frame, irrespective of mitigation.
3-4 months max. We are halfway in. Numbers will peak before long then decline. Why doesn’t your ever lovin’ model show this?
I don't, of course it will plateau but only once enough are vaccinated, it infects/kills enough people or lockdowns stop transmission.
PS stop pushing your anti COVID vax shit on me and everyone else here. I don't care what you do but all I'm doing is pointing out the misinformation you're putting up.
People can make their own decision but I'll continue to provide real data/stats and information to show the expected outcomes of what's going down.
You mother and others are an unfortunate case and I'm sorry to hear that, but with billions already vaccinated, the largest sample we'll ever get, the data is there to see and the pros far, far outweigh the cons if we want to move forward.
Craig said- “of course it will plateau but only once enough are vaccinated,”
Rubbish. Every outbreak around the world came in waves of few months duration including before vaccines were available.
Hazrus How many families are there in Indonesia ? The total population according to the UN in 2021 is 276691046 . If there is 20 per family that is over 1 million deaths . This site says 109k with 3.7 million cases . Maybe there is 200 per family .
?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/indonesia/
I listed other reasons Blowin.
Why is it every Tuesday I have to go and have a long walk in the bush to release after being on here. Fark me.
You're so annoying but I also value your opinions and wordsmithery in other areas. I'm out of here again.
It’s coming Freeride. Travel passport etc will be a reality soon and that will probably be extended to all walks of life.
For example, heard that tradies in the high risk LGA’s can go back to work if they e had at least one shot of the vaccine. I guess the others stay home and earn nothing...that’s coercion/incentivisation isn’t it?
OK. I’m officially off the Covid threads for a week. Going to aim for next Tuesday and go from there. Have a good walk. Watch out for paralysis tics….they’ve killed more under 50’s than Covid in Australia.
Lol
Sure, there might be a lot more adverse reactions than reported, but it's the only way out.
There's no other solution that doesn't clog up the health system, put a huge strain on our amazing nurses and medical staff etc etc.
If you have another solution I'm all ears, but even a half arsed vaccine is better than nothing. And they're working, over the UK, US etc the ones in hospital now are unvaccinated, also here in NSW. Again pros out-weigh cons by magnitudes.
See above post
Haha, wow, I actually got one last week from the walk. Lucky only in me for a day..
If you get stressed …..think of this picture.
Hey Craig, I threw up some alternative solutions a few pages back. Have a look, food for thought.
Blowin, good idea, clear your head from debating people who you don’t even know but I’ll say it again, you made some relevant points...and go surfing!
I was a little shocked at Alan Joyce (CEO Qantas) announcement that international travelers will be required to have a covid 19 vaccination in order to travel on Qantas flights . The government wanted to have mandatory vaccination but after the bumbling of its release ( it was painful to watch the delivery of that announcement ) they withdrew the mandatory part but it seems Qantas and other business may demand a vaccination in order to use their services. I’m not anti vaccine by any means I just don’t trust this government or a vaccine that has been rushed through. A jab followed by another jab followed by yearly jabs doesn’t sit well with me as I have never had a flu shot or the flu for more than 20 years. Plus I don’t want to give this shot to my healthy 4 year old daughter. She is up to date with all her vaccinations but this covid vaccine is new and not being around for decades like the others. Tuberculosis remains the number one as far diseases go and you don’t need proof of vaccination to travel so what is going on ?