Vaccinate or not

Just Fucking do it !

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Goofy and Indo- no, not in Oz, As Supa said. I am in US. And no Goofy. No underlying health issues. For any of them.
I hesitate to post anything in this thread (tho i have 3 times now), because, being in the US, we may have different environments and specifics, and i do not wanna offend. BUT, it is helpful, to me, personally, to get that story out of my inner dialog, as much as i can. I won't constantly tax Crew with stories, and feel a little sheepish for doing so. Just had to tonite (middle of nite in my neck of woods.. i am on lunch break, which i don't always get. Tonite is goin okay. Cept i just jinxed it, lol.) I am gonna repeat what i said.... i am tired and no longer want to hear salutes and compliments and niceties. Wanna salute healthcare workers in 2021? Get your jab. Don't wanna get your jab? Don't bother with the nice stuff toward us, you've already spoken.

Classic vid Udo, did the vax age him 10 years in a couple of days or what?!

Thanks for the reply wax.

No worries Goofy.
Supa, i am in Northern California. The Red Triangle.
Gotta get back to it... (working, no surfin for a while)

Any one who volunteers their child for a vaccination shouldn’t be allowed to keep their child. Just my opinion obviously

Wow Wax, thanks for taking the time to add that in here, bit of a wake up and reality check for those who aren't willing to pull their weight. Get vaccinated.

Yep I've booked in to get mine but seriously what kind of parent would do that? Maybe I'm missing something but it seems very wrong to me.

In good news, Hanson has just said she won't be getting the vaccine. Fingers crossed she joins a long list of far right wing nutters who have removed themselves from the gene pool because they think they know more than the medical experts.

shoredump wrote:

Batfink, you can’t give a response in July to a paper published in August

The response to that Guardian article was put up by Supafreak a page or 3 back

Gawd, went back as far as I dare, 20 July was about 15 pages ago, couldn’t find supafreak’s take down.

Hard to come back from what is academic incompetence at best, or what looks more like academic fraud. For those who didn’t read it, junior researchers found plagiarism (a mortal sin for academics), cloned subjects (they made people up for their study) suggestions of cherry picking for the dates used, but the final nail is the raw data does not match the published results. All up, the biggest study to date seems to have found no effect from using ivermectin.

On a general level, it’s entirely up to each one of you what you get up to. I’ve made my choice. The likeliest outcome, apparently voiced by WHO official recently is that by next July we will all either have had Covid, or a jab, or both. I would push that out to the end of next year to be sure, but that is the likeliest outcome.

If you’ve been jabbed with AZ your chances of dying from the jab are about 1 in a million. For Covid, unjabbed, your chances of dying are about 1 in a 100. Your chances of getting long Covid if you are unjabbed is about 1 in 25. You can play with your age profiles and all the rest if you think you’re good with numbers, but if you’re good with numbers you have already made your decision because numbers are numbers. Need more convincing, just keep track of the numbers of dead and seriously ill who have had no jabs against those who have had one or both jabs.

I hope you all get jabbed. I know getting a needle is super-scary and it really hurts, ouch, but I believe you can do it. You’re tougher than you think you are.

The best thing about today’s discussion was discovering that Australian doctors can prescribe it. Next step is to find a doctor that will, then when that day comes for our family, we will have a double layered defence

Cheers Supafreak. Seems to confirm that the Elgazarr study was pulled.

Is that agreed?

Supafreak, cause and effect is yet to to be established for Ivermectin. How many of those would have recovered anyway? Anything you can provide on actual causality would assist, that is, what does it actually do?

Equally, you’ve been on this for 15 months now, way before any study of effectiveness was conducted. Your belief is entirely reasonable, I’ll stick with science if that’s ok.. Treatments at hospitals is anecdotal evidence, which is useful, but it ain’t science.

"Batfink, you can’t give a response in July to a paper published in August

The response to that Guardian article was put up by Supafreak a page or 3 back"

then...

"Why not? Are you ‘cancelling’ me. ;-)"

"Why not? ...' ...the question is... why would you?

unless you overlooked the dates... it does seem a little desperate and irrelevant...

"...For Covid, unjabbed, your chances of dying are about 1 in a 100..."

...overegged a bit no? ...you got the same calculator blowin uses? ...ie. with the PSD function... (personally selective data)

(for the record, I think blowin's personally selective data makes a good point! ie. you edit out the very aged and vulnerable and it shows the death statistics are totally overcooked...)

"Hard to come back from what is academic incompetence at best, or what looks more like academic fraud. For those who didn’t read it, junior researchers found plagiarism (a mortal sin for academics), cloned subjects (they made people up for their study) suggestions of cherry picking for the dates used, but the final nail is the raw data does not match the published results. All up, the biggest study to date seems to have found no effect from using ivermectin."

so the hydroxychoroquine study that got pulled for dodgy data... was that 'academic incompetence at best...' or, 'academic fraud...'?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/12324118

not aimed at you personally... it just seems lots of people, papers, and journals are not doing due diligence '...at best...'

are we now in a new 'medical culture war' where perspective overrides scientific method?

or has science always been prone to perspective and self interest? ...as many critics have long claimed...

or, is the contemporary journal system, medical system, big pharma, university, government bureaucracy mega complex as corrupt as it seems?

little bit of all of the above?

I watched the video from Brutus & I found it weak. Nothing compelling said against ivermectin in that video. Even they admit that better trials are coming and could prove them wrong, which is already starting to happen

It’s momentum building for ivermectin, that’s what I get out of both sides of the debate, blended in the juicer

"...Even they admit that better trials are coming and could prove them wrong, which is already starting to happen

It’s momentum building for ivermectin, that’s what I get out of both sides of the debate, blended in the juicer"

sure seems that way

for better or worse... the peer review system is like turning a tanker... which is fine, under normal conditions...

what I don't understand... (or do really...) ...is why such vehement resistance, for a drug that is essentially harmless?

why wouldn't you use it, if no other options are available?

the bohemoth of resistance is hugely suspicious to say the least

if you were a frontline doc. in indo, you would be irresponsible and stupid not to take it...

"@shoredump , yeah about the video, I said at the time they had some valid points and that I would love to see them in a debate with Dr Kory . Thats what’s missing doctors and scientists debating each other , fuck the politicians."

I've asked this before regarding other issues...

why don't people go head to head in debate anymore?

the world has become this incredibly strange infantile place, where opposing groups just battle shit out on social media, belittling, dismissing, and deplatforming... but never facing each other... never answering their critics...

I kinda get it with social issues, but expect a little more maturity from scientists

Batfink said:

“If you’ve been jabbed with AZ your chances of dying from the jab are about 1 in a million. For Covid, unjabbed, your chances of dying are about 1 in a 100. Your chances of getting long Covid if you are unjabbed is about 1 in 25. You can play with your age profiles and all the rest if you think you’re good with numbers, but if you’re good with numbers you have already made your decision because numbers are numbers“

Lol.

Perhaps you should get someone who’s good with numbers to hold your hand when you’re doing your sums there bloke.

“Covid unjabbed chances of dying are 1 in 100” …..Now despite regular updates on confirmed global stats which entirely dismiss this erroneous bullshit, we’ve got the example of Australia to witness. 36.000 confirmed cases ( actual cases probably multiples of that figure ) with 900 odd deaths. If you exclude deaths amongst those older than the mean life expectancy of Australia ( 82 years old ) you’re left with about 50 deaths. Broaden that to desths amongst healthy sub 70 year olds and the figure is probably single digits. So you think my chances of dying as an otherwise healthy sub 50 year old are 1 in 100 despite the FACTS stating they are way less than 1 in 1000 . That’s if I even catch it . No one has ever claimed that everyone will catch Covid. Many people won’t even catch it if they’re exposed to it properly. A sick fella was just rampant throughout Nth NSW with his two sick sons. They should have infected hundreds of people. Let’s see exactly how many got infected. I’ll wager that the initial wave of infected is less than 50 people.

You talk about “play around the numbers to fit your age profile” as though it’s shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic. Age and health profile is exceedingly important. To dismiss this as incidental is to show you are willing to ignore facts to suit your prophecy of doom.

“1 in 25 will get long Covid “ …..Again…..purely fantastic figures. I’d just roll my eyes at your laughable claims if you didn’t get patronising with your “ Do you even maths, Bro?” dribble.

35.000 confirmed cases of Covid in Australia . Your unimpeachable mathematical ability claims there are roughly 8750 people out there struggling to breathe 6 months later……lol.

I hope you’re not an accountant or a Doctor or …..anything to do with maths or authority.

Here you go Batfink

At my age I’m roughly twice as likely to die from Covid ( 0.4 ) as I am seasonal flu ( 0.2). That’s IF I catch it. Who knows ? I may catch it and I may die , there’s always a chance. But in the meantime you can stick your condescending lies fair in your arse.

blowin said:

"If you exclude deaths amongst those older than the mean life expectancy of Australia ( 82 years old ) you’re left with about 50 deaths."

Discounting the death of the eldery due to covid may not have been your intent, but I see this a lot in terms of downplaying covid and I want to point out my issue with this. It's problematic because statistically half of the people live beyond the mean life expectancy. If everyone mysteriously died at 82, the mean life expectancy would drop substantially, since there are many other causes of death before that too. Life expectancy is held at that value because a lot of people live a lot longer than that. It just the average.

I feel its very disingenuous to discount deaths of the 82+ due to covid as being "oh, they were due anyway". No. Lots of people live into their 90s, and at least some of the 82+ who died of covid lost years of their life. Are those person-years less valuable than that of 50 or 60+? Perhaps only by a soul-less economic measurement. Younger folks dying miss out on more years of their life, but life is still a joy and just as meaningful in your later years (until it isn't).

sypkan wrote:

"@shoredump , yeah about the video, I said at the time they had some valid points and that I would love to see them in a debate with Dr Kory . Thats what’s missing doctors and scientists debating each other , fuck the politicians."

I've asked this before regarding other issues...

why don't people go head to head in debate anymore?

the world has become this incredibly strange infantile place, where opposing groups just battle shit out on social media, belittling, dismissing, and deplatforming... but never facing each other... never answering their critics...

I kinda get it with social issues, but expect a little more maturity from scientists

Good point, and the ivermectin guys publicly state they are all for a debate but no one comes forward, obviously because they know they’ll get shot down. It’s easy to see who is disingenuous (those guys giggling because they were called celebrity fuckwit doctors) and who really wants to help. If it were a party, who would you want to talk to

Keeldude- No. It’s disingenuous to expand statistics so that they are completely unrepresentative of the audience they are addressing. The over 80 age bracket is responsible for the majority of deaths. The vast majority of deaths occur in aged care. Swellnet readers are not living in aged care.

To intentionally conflate the statistics of one exclusionary demographic with all other demographics as Batfink has done, is not just disingenuous it’s basically fraudulent. If he needs to lie in order to maintain his argument then his argument is nothing but bullshit. As is the case.

Unless you think the Swellnet audience has a 1 in 100 likelihood of dying from Covid. This is a LIE. There’s no more generous way to put it. To then claim that it’s others who can’t do the sums…..FFS.

You hear talk about Covid misinformation, Batfink is spreading Covid misinformation. Just another passive aggressive metrosexual gronk.

"why don't people go head to head in debate anymore?"

Science doesn't advance from head-to-head debates. Science is about theory and experiment. And not just one experiment, but lots.

On Invermectin, its possible that it has some effect, but this will be put to the test by more blind trials. It's also important to weigh the side-effects with the effectiveness. If this is a miracle cure, it will be easily proved in independently conducted trials. Until that day, it's at best a "maybe".

Also, this seems somewhat relevant (not sure how to format images inline)

https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/cells.png

keeldude wrote:

"why don't people go head to head in debate anymore?"

Science doesn't advance from head-to-head debates. Science is about theory and experiment. And not just one experiment, but lots.

On Invermectin, its possible that it has some effect, but this will be put to the test by more blind trials. It's also important to weigh the side-effects with the effectiveness. If this is a miracle cure, it will be easily proved in independently conducted trials. Until that day, it's at best a "maybe".

Also, this seems somewhat relevant (not sure how to format images inline)

https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/cells.png

Re head-to-head debates, it's not just about science, it's about politics and ideas in general.
Debate has died, and there is only one truth/narrative. Questioning the orthodoxy is no longer having a debate, it's being a wacko conspiracy theorist.

Re Ivermectin, it's obvious that it has positive effects, and it has been used safely for decades. So why not use it more widely? Why indeed have a complete hissy fit over it, as so many have had.

.

@Blowin,

Its always appreciated to post quality graphical information as you have. A central place from which to start a conversation. Thank you for that.

Perhaps I don't have the entire context, but it seems Batfink threw the number 1/100 (1%) out there for a ballpark case fatality rate, which is probably not the worst estimate of case fatality rate overall (due to the likelihood of having a larger denominator of cases that we missed or failed to test). I suppose they didn't know your age, and as you've pointed out, thats incorrect, its actually 1/250 (0.4%) or possibily 1/350 (~0.3%) for your age bracket. Even if these are case fatality rates, which, depending on how the calculation was done, are the worst-case rates (as stated before, most likely lower than this), a statistically significant number of people die.

Depending on how likely you are to high exposure for covid, 1/250 doesn't sound that good either.
I'm not sure what the previous context was, but 1/300 and 1/100 are both odds I'm not comfortable taking.

My age demographic puts me at 1/500 CFR, again, not numbers I'm comfortable with, so myself I got double jabbed (AZ when it came out, then Moderna after all the hooplah with the AZ). For me, my decision was also based on not wanting to spread it to my elderly parents (still possible, I know, but lower chance) and the rest of the public.

Common agreed upon starting point, like a graph by a reliable source, is key to having these conversations.

Blowin wrote:

Here you go Batfink

At my age I’m roughly twice as likely to die from Covid ( 0.4 ) as I am seasonal flu ( 0.2). That’s IF I catch it. Who knows ? I may catch it and I may die , there’s always a chance. But in the meantime you can stick your condescending lies fair in your arse.

It's not a very good comparison because there is so many preventative measures to prevent getting and spreading covid.

If Covid was left to just run through the community like the flue is every year, you can bet the death rate from Covid even in your age group would be much much higher.

People rarely die from the flue in my wife Indonesian neighbourhood, and her mother doesnt get the flue any worse than anyone else in the family, but half a dozen people have died in her neighbourhood and her mother got real sick and had trouble breathing from covid.

Reality is Covid is now the third biggest killer behind heart disease and diabetes and thats in only a bit over a year of being around and with all these preventive measures and who knows what the future strains could be like.

Sure maybe we have gone over the top in some ways dealing with covid, and we shouldn't live a life in fear, but we shouldn't downplay Covid as just another flue either, IMHO we should take it seriously and get vaccinated.

"It's not a very good comparison because there is so many preventative measures to prevent getting and spreading covid."

"If Covid was left to just run through the community like the flue is every year, you can bet the death rate from Covid even in your age group would be much much higher."

Exactly. Like comparing apples to Adam's Apples....or something.

Just to muddy the waters further is the R0 value:

https://sph.umich.edu/pursuit/2020posts/how-scientists-quantify-outbreak...

and, note this next article published in Jan 2019

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/25/1/17-1901_article

The take home from this article being:

"R0 remains a valuable epidemiologic concept, but the expanded use of R0 in both the scientific literature and the popular press appears to have enabled some misunderstandings to propagate. R0 is an estimate of contagiousness that is a function of human behavior and biological characteristics of pathogens. R0 is not a measure of the severity of an infectious disease or the rapidity of a pathogen’s spread through a population. R0 values are nearly always estimated from mathematical models, and the estimated values are dependent on numerous decisions made in the modeling process.

Blowin wrote:

Keeldude- No. It’s disingenuous to expand statistics so that they are completely unrepresentative of the audience they are addressing. The over 80 age bracket is responsible for the majority of deaths. The vast majority of deaths occur in aged care. Swellnet readers are not living in aged care.

To intentionally conflate the statistics of one exclusionary demographic with all other demographics as Batfink has done, is not just disingenuous it’s basically fraudulent. If he needs to lie in order to maintain his argument then his argument is nothing but bullshit. As is the case.

Unless you think the Swellnet audience has a 1 in 100 likelihood of dying from Covid. This is a LIE. There’s no more generous way to put it. To then claim that it’s others who can’t do the sums…..FFS.

You hear talk about Covid misinformation, Batfink is spreading Covid misinformation. Just another passive aggressive metrosexual gronk.

.
Blowin , you spread misinformation all the time , the real problem right now is not all the past stats and conclusions like you have done with people over 80 . I f you haven't noticed or chosen to read the current state of play in the World it has become increasingly is really obvious.....younger and younger people are being affected by the Delta variant, there is now enough evidence to show there is now a Covid epidemic among younger unvaccinated people , where healthy young people are being admitted to hospital/ICU's and death...
I have posted enough Stats/articles/links that show the enormous shift in Covid from the elderly to now under 40's, under 30's.....kids now catching Covid.......
I think because of people like you we need to make Covid vaccinations mandatory , to protect us and you from yourself just like https://www.theage.com.au/national/why-vaccination-should-be-compulsory-.........
I used the seat belt analogy........so try answering ,civily

keeldude wrote:

My age demographic puts me at 1/500 CFR, again, not numbers I'm comfortable with, so myself I got double jabbed (AZ when it came out, then Moderna after all the hooplah with the AZ). For me, my decision was also based on not wanting to spread it to my elderly parents (still possible, I know, but lower chance) and the rest of the public.

Keeldude, does that mean you had 1st jab AZ and 2nd moderna? Or two of each?

Incorrect Indo.

The statistics are calculated on the simple relationship between how many people have died as a percentage of the number of people who have caught it.

You think everyone in the world needs to catch AIDS to determine the case fatality rate of AIDS?

Brutus- I’ve presented the facts exact as they are displayed. I’ve not influenced the numbers. If the numbers don’t align with your personal beliefs then you shout are it up with the scientists who established the facts, not me. By disputing these facts it is yourself who is denying truth and spreading misinformation.

Also - In over 18 months 4.3 million people globally have died with Covid. In 18 months over 15 million people globslly die from smoking…..and that’s EVERY 18 months . How many people have died from smoking amongst your typical Indo villagers? I’d suggest it was many. Does anyone in Indo give a fuck about smoking desths? No. Are people who sell cigarettes in Indo called granny killers and told to “ pull their weight” ? No.

Here are the facts again for you Brutus.

Supafreak, you posted a link to a study on here yesterday (Monday morning). Cant find it now. Do you have the link again?

It honestly blows me away that some otherwise smart people aren’t aware of how overblown the Covid threat actually is.

Is Covid real? Yes. Does it kill people? Yes.

But the attention given to Covid is completely out of proportion to its impact on society.

Case study- India.

India had no lockdown. The population is tightly packed and undernourished to the large extent. The delta variant was formerly known as the Indian variant. It ran completely unchecked and virtually untreated throughout Indian society. It is the perfect example of the virus in its prime running rampant through a vulnerable population.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-08/why-is-india-not-announcing-a-loc...

So what happened?

Case numbers and deaths peaked rapidly, then dwindled just as rapidly.

No vaccines, no lockdowns. No vaccine passports. No mitigation beyond widely unavailable prophylactics and treatments.

The result? In 18 months there have been 450K deaths with Covid. That sounds harsh and the media made huge news about it…until case numbers started to naturally decrease, at which point they acted as though India no longer exists.

The media focussed on a single virus in granular detail as it suited their narrative and then dropped it as soon as the story was not convenient. Also not convenient and not publicised is the fact that each year a million Indians die from air pollution. In the 18 months of Covid and for every 18 months before and after, 1.5 million Indians die from dirty air.

Why is there no outcry? No global frenzy to publicise these deaths? Because THOSE deaths aren’t the story. At the current rate there will be 90 percent less annual deaths in India from Covid than air pollution.

Fact.

Are the worlds air polluters ( all of us ) being called granny killers and told to “ pull their weight” and cease all air polluting ? No

https://thebalisun.com/a-covid-19-vaccine-certificate-soon-to-be-an-entr...
Meanwhile Jim Banks still posting crap....False facebook Factchecks and a class action against them...FFS Jim !

Blowin , you use India as a case study......still 60000 cases a day reported and 500 deaths a day....so that's a good result....500 a day dying and that's what's reported.........is that acceptable for you?
USA are now over 150000 cases a day , 500 dead each day expected to become a 1000 per day, over 90% unvaccinated......and now the under 40's are the main infected demographic.......so that's OK for you, collateral damage ??
Everytime you post smoke and mirror figures , like eg how many people die from smoking, WTF has that got to do with anything.......but maybe you think smoking is contagious?

Blowin, you say,"But the attention given to Covid is completely out of proportion to its impact on society."........I call this statement Ostrich syndrome........the impact on society will change the way we live forever ....but you think(thankfully a miniscule minority) the attention Covid receives is out of proportion....even though it has changed the way mankind lives and affects the future wellbeing of our current civilization............