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In 1982, Australia and our 2 closest political big brothers, England and the USA, all had right wing conservative governments. Out of the 3, where did the pendulum swing back to the left first?
In 1995, both the USA and Australia had left wing governments.
Which country swung right first? Yes... Australia.
In 2006, both Australia and USA had right wing governments.
Who swung back to the left first? Yes, Australia.
In 2018, The USA, England, and Australia all had right wing governments...
Will we the the canary in the "coal mine" again?
Next recession 2020
Interesting, Sheepdog. Up to a point.
What's more interesting in the timeline to contemplate is how will the neo-liberal economics in each country be impacted?
And what the 'left' and 'right' will look like.
I think some of us are old, experienced, and well informed enough, Sheepdog (you included), to realise we are on the cusp of a significant swing - to varying degrees in each country - away from this economic orthodoxy, and all its attendant social and cultural impacts, that have been in play for the last 40 years or thereabouts.
And the fight is only going to get uglier.
May you live in interesting times, indeed...
That was close. Damn thing nearly got me. Just lunged up like an angry Red Belly trying to get its tail out from under my foot, lashing around, striking for the throat. Had me ducking and weaving like Frazier in those early rounds against Ali before he stunned him with that left hook and forced him to play rope a dope. Could have sucked me straight back to '72 and dumped me at Nixon's feet in the middle of the Miami convention if I hadn't kicked the shit out of it and grabbed hold of the verandah rail.
Jesus, think of that, dumped at Dicky's feet on the podium with 20 SS men equipped with the latest early seventies secret service weaponry, all wanting to try it out, all wanting to be the one who stomps the weirdo. Dragged off to be interrogated with the Nixon Youth chanting "Four More Years, at the top of their voices to drown out my screams. Then drugged to the eyeballs and dumped in some hellish secret prison for unclassifiable loons. It's a lesson. Don't fuck with the wormhole. Let it do its thing, just stand back and watch what it spits out.
And it's spitting out all sorts of crap; an "It's Time" button, a 7" 45rpm vinyl single of "Imagine", Beto O'Rourke's birth certificate, a page from tracks magazine featuring a photo of a naked woman with a paper bag over her head, suspicious lumps of vegetable matter, all with a vaguely radioactive glow. Nothing actually alive, yet. You have to wonder though what a trip through the wormhole would do to a living thing. Remove everything except the instinct for survival? It could spit out zombies or vampires. Things with all trace of empathy removed.
Those bits of Nixon that got stuck in Trump, were straight from that crazy, paranoid period at the end of his Presidency. Even before the election Arthur Burns, Chairman of the Federal Reserve , wrote in his diary, " There were moments in this meeting when I felt the President was going mad ......I left with a deeply troubled mind." And that was only the beginning. By the end he was acting like Hitler in the bunker, ordering around armies that didn't exist, all while the US nuclear forces were at DEFCON III over the possibility of Soviet intervention to save the Egyption army surrounded by the Israelis in the Sinai Desert. Thank Christ that was '73 or Trump would be ordering the third division into Venezuela while they were still in their barracks in Omaha or Nebraska or one of those other US states that you can never remember. But yeh, that thick, wide delusional streak in Trump? Pure Nixon!
But enough of Trump-Nixon. We've got an election here before the Primaries even start there and anyone with an ounce of political nouse is already shitting themselves. Labor keep steaming ahead in the polls while the commentariat nod their heads in unison at the "certainty" of their victory. Which means we need to consider the possibility that they are in deep shit. There is nothing more fatal to the process of winning an election than "certainty". The hacks employed by Lord Moloch are working overtime to find something on Shorten. Child abuse, halitosis, a bounced cheque, a fuzzy photograph of him shaking hands with Martin Bryant. Out there somewhere is something and Moloch's hounds have the most highly developed nose for shit found in any species with a greater number of neurons than the dung beetle. And then there is Scomo McMahon, deviousness embedded in delusion, ready to leap out of some dark alley with a razor and a gun to.......
ID there will be a recession in the next 18 to 24 months (almost certain).
How ever we haven't had one for the last 27 years and it wasn't the Coalition that kept Australia from having one unless you are a truly rusted on Lib supporter.
The main drive for Australia having recessions is simply the world economy not government policy.
Stimulus and lowering interest rates can help but in the end we are just a flea on the back of a very big dog.
Note Labor (Rudd) acted in front of the curve (Ken Henry) to allow Australia to not get smashed by the great recession (cost $40 Bil), Note x 2 Coalition apposed much of that stimulus.
...and by doing so, acting in front of the curve, did not allow housing to correct as it had in much of the rest of the world, and as it should have. Thus condemning Australia another decade of obscene property prices, world record debt-to-income ratios.
Not to mention the high land and rent prices joining world's highest energy prices and high AUD to eviscerate productive industry.
Sometimes you just have to let things retrace; it works out better.
Very fair comment Facto - if/when the Libs get thrown out, it won't necessarily mean that we'll find ourselves with a left-wing government.
As you've said, the more measured question should be how much will a new government move away from hard-core neoliberalism (if at all) and what effect will this have economically.
Also, are people really ready for it?
My major concern is that Joe Average will talk a good talk but just isn't prepared for a genuine change in their "quality of life", which is another discussion that needs to be had - redefining the definition of quality of life.
I focus -
Some might argue that Australia is in a recession of sorts already.
"Australia falls into per-capita recession as growth tumbles"
"Australia's economy has slumped into a per-capita recession for the first time since 2006, leaving the country relying on population growth to propel its economy and raising questions about the Coalition's economic management months out from the federal election."
If it weren’t for record immigration Australia would have been in recession for years but it’s all Labor’s fault from May
Yes we have entered a recession already. And housing prices are tumbling, all under a coalition government. And the only thing stopping the figures from being even worse is the coalitions MASSIVE immigration over the last 3 years
So what the fuck can labor possibly do when they inherit the mess?
Probably just make it worse I reckon (that's an observation not advocation)
The mess that both sides made actually, as vj points out. Labor totally overshot it with the 2008 stimulus. If I was them I'd stop spruiking that as an economic achievement. That's fucked us up possibly just as much as howards middle class welfare
Shorten's lame half heated promise to support morrison's 160 k immigration figure will be the first thing to go...
Syppo, at some stage we have to accept that growth can't go on for ever.
I think you could argue that it's the crazy unsustainable growth that's the mess.
Try selling that one though.
I reckon you could sell the idea to give people more time to actully look after their families and themselves properly rather than outsourcing everything because they're so bloody busy
But that would take balls, so no, not likely...
Today was the anniversary of the poll tax riot. It was the beginning of the end for Thatcher.
It was also my first trip to the UK.
Wild day. Wild times.
Surely this is an April fools joke ?
Welcome to the new “ diverse “ Australia.
Divided into competing ethnic subgroups. Chinese Australians- whatever the fuck that means - resent being considered any different from the rest of Australians......Except for the fact that they need their own parliamentary representation to account for their uniqueness.
“Labor dropped the prominent Chinese-Australian Upper House MP Ernest Wong and replaced him with a union official. That left the Chinese-Australian community with no representation in NSW Labor. If our community matters to state Labor, why not replace Wong with a prominent Chinese-Australian?
Chinese-Australians have had enough of the political tokenism displayed by all sides of politics.
We are not political cannon fodder and we no longer want to serve as cash cows and walking ATMs at fundraising dinners. We're tired of having candidates in non-winnable seats. We want to be recognised for our commitment to Australian democracy.
My advice to Bill Shorten and Scott Morrison to take a step away from WeChat and show some genuine interest in our community’s concerns.“
Your community ? You’re Australians .....that is your community .
You’re either Chinese or you’re Australian. There is no place for the divisive , racist , identity politics of this Chinese - Australian bullshit. Enjoy whatever bigoted thoughts of racial separation you like within the privacy of your own home but public speaking of this nature is inflammatory and leads people to question why they’d allow a competing racial group to colonise their country.
Yes folks, it's April Fools Day.
Meanwhile in Sydney...
Haha, first thing I thought when I saw billy boy with that asian woman behind him was...hmmm, nice little bit of tokenism there bill, trying to undo your mate daley's little fuck up. It wasn't even a nice bit of tokenism, it was a desperate bit of tokenism, she's from bloody Taiwanese background.
Anyway, I've been thinking for a while that labor takes minorities for granted, much the same as the denocrats do in the US. You know play the public niceties game of IP but really offer them nothing, assume where else would they go? just like the democrats. And here it is, all spelt out in an article.
Of course chinese are business orientated, like lower taxes and care about things other Australians care about. IP lip service don't seem to cut it anymore.
Like most migrants, they probably have quite conservative social values too, I know that for a fact from some duscussions with some relatively new migrants at work - not chinese.
I'd say this election certainly ain't in the bag for labor. God knows how, the scomo liberal manifestation is a disgrace, all over the shop and desperate, but somehow still with a chance...
The cry of the racist moron is loud in the land. Prepare for weeping and gnashing of teeth!
Totally agree , BB.
The whining by the” Chinese Australian community “ needs to be ignored. Let them cry and gnash their teeth....we are all part of the one society. No exceptionalism based on race .
I can’t believe we agree on this !
PS ....you don’t think it was a bit strong calling them morons ?
Out-numbed and out gunned by whingeing white guys worried about their priveleged positions as C21 kicks into gear and the world spins just a bit too fast for them. How's your flux capacitor going? Mine is fired up and working perfectly. I can send you straight back to 1972 if you like, you sound like you would be much happier there.
Chinese Australians might wish for more political representation and to be recognised for their "commitment to Australian democracy" but when we have "China's 'brazen' and 'aggressive' political interference outlined in top-secret report" it's not surprising that people get a little uneasy.
I’d be so much happier living in 1972.
Tell me BB , why is it that you frame every opposing opinion as being founded in fear ? You’ve been perpetuating this gaslighting for quite a while now. It’s time you attempted to justify it.
There's a lot of self hatred in that generation from those radical uni times. Unfortunately they were our lecturers. Times shift and all peoples of all origins will get to value and be proud of themselves and who they are. Look to the young identitarians to see the future; it certainly is not with the old. They had their go.
You think Identitarians are the future, VJ?
Seems to me they'd prefer a dangerous reversion than a peaceful resolution.
"The cry of the racist moron is loud in the land. Prepare for weeping and gnashing of teeth!"
You really shouldn't get your knickers in knot over this stuff blindboy, I've said it before, but really, it's nothing personal, it's just politics. Just trying to be objective, someone has to...try at least...
I won't be weeping or gnashing. I don't think you could possibly find a person on the planet more indifferent to who wins this next election than me. Be it scomo or still bill, same same, from my perspective, I might even lean a little bit still bill way on certain days, but frankly, they both scare the hell out of me, for very different reasons...
I'm just pointing out the burning irony that IP seems to biting the left more than the right in its current form these days. As the ridiculous rules and expectations that have developed with it cannot be met, even by it's advocates.
To some extent you're an example. Blowin has shown many times that for one to buy into the current narrative of identity politics, one must be racist to the other 'other' in order for it to work. There's no other way. That's fine if everyone accepts the thinking and (flawed) theory, but that's not the case. People have questions, after 30 odd years of dogma, they want to know the vision. They're not just going to roll over and suck it up anymore. They want to know the end game or the goal. But there isn't one. Either by flawed design or just plain ideological laziness there's no end point, it's just a never ending search for petty grievance, and opportunities for signalling - most of the time...
When you say identitarians who are you referring to ?
Question to moi?
I looked that up but I wasnt quite sure how it fit the conversation.
"Look to the young identitarians to see the future"
Stu, one of the curious things of 21st century internet tech, added to multiculturalism, and a push to make everyone the same mix of consumer - is that tribalism is taking off. Whether it is La Raza or ISIS or BLM or the Sons of Odin; or even Buddhist militants (!) in Myanmar.
People are reacting to this push to homogenise everyone, and this is occuring in many groups. The incredible technology of the internet has spawned sites where I can read the Poetic Eddas of my ancestors. Just as Dreamtime stories are far more accessible.
For every extremist group throwing punches on street corners, there are others more peaceful discovering activities from 'way finding' to 'moots' to Sufiism.
And so we are seeing the opposite of a coming together, homogeneous humanity; rather, we are seeing a true diversity in thought and increasingly, religion.
The other point about the internet is it makes opposition groups truly spontaneous, leaderless, and impossible to co-opt and very hard to whack down. Hence all the attempts at banning. This is maybe far more like what Marx envisioned for his proletariat - it would revolt on its own and there would be no need for a 'vanguard group' to do revolution for them. You see it in the Yellow vests, this true people's uprising. And it's gone beyond the old PC 'internet 1.0', it's now instant and over social media on people's phones. The last very interesting thing is the uprising is against the 'Generation of '68' who dominate everything from university policy to wealth and ideology, and it is the spark of onerous taxes (like 1798) that ignites decades of ill-feeling against a dominant paradigm.
We live in historic times.
There is an endgame.
It’s to grow the economy into a giant pulsating global suckage of the wealth from labour to capital . That’s it and that’s all.
Unfortunately, stooges such as Blindboy are enabling the charge into dystopia by actively encouraging the divide and conquer strategy employed by capital . It runs thusly....
1/ Overwhelm wealthy Western nation’s with mass immigration. Force feed social group think that “ diversity “ is the ultimate good.
2/ Foster sectarian racial/ cultural divisions to ensure labour cannot achieve the unity required to oppose capital effectively.
3/ Do not tolerate contrarian opinion. Use social pressure to suppress alternative thought.
firstly, a typo, '1798' should read '1789' above.
Secondly, I generally agree with your points Blowin, after much research. Dividing everyone into multiple sects/ethnicities/religious groups will ensure much arguing, while at the same time the economy can be run to ruin/looted and no one will notice. I might add all the gender angst on that one as well, though I don't know too much about where that has gone.
For example, Australia has lost much of its productive industry in the last decade. That can be manufacturing (taken out by various factors that can fill a full forum) or even our fruit bowl (water allocations and enviro politics) or the ability to make a reliable base load of power (SA...). These productive industries grow wealth for an economy, the former through value-adding. In their place, lots of house building has gone on, but unlike a factory which produces items once complete, a house is a net sink of capital. If we distract ourselves enough, we might just miss this great alteration in the ability to produce.
Let's say I know people who know, and parts of the policing apparatus are being equipped in preparation for unrest.
Another quick theory I have, tip of hat to Strauss and Howe and their sociological work - basically they see societies conforming to 4 generational shifts that are cyclical (Eastern idea, cycling time rather than linear progression). In their work they marked out the US from 1776 in a series of generations where 'themes' repeat. I note that Australia (the nation that became the Commonwealth) was formed later - but suspect similar cycling themes repeat here. In that case I surmise that we are about that 10 year lag behind them. Our ability to paper over the 2008 crash with policy and avoid recession, when combined with the national debt/accounts, suggest that the next one is our 'GFC'. If you look at the US after 2008, that has been the decade of this unrest, everything from Occupy Wall St to BLM to shooters to young neo nazis to furries to all sorts of marches and protests; and finally a wave attempting to sweep the industry-loss and consequent poverty away (yet to determine if it has worked) and 'make America great again'. A renewal that Strauss and Howe document as happening there again and again.
& also credit to BB for his writings above - I never knew a thing about McMahon, Gorton, McEwen etc and the leadup to Gough coming to power in '72. I can certainly see the parallels like many others can. The question is, who is the modern Rex Connor?
"There is an endgame.
It’s to grow the economy into a giant pulsating global suckage of the wealth from labour to capital . That’s it and that’s all."
I think you had it in one there Blowin. The rest of your post suggests an underlying intelligence directing the traffic, and at that point we must diverge.
Nobody has this under control, nobody has the slightest clue how this end game works out, social media is such a new class of beast that there is no-one controlling it, or directing it, it is way out of any individual's hand now, although some very wealthy capitalists on the right in USA are making a go of it, mainly the Koch Brothers, mainly the one that got rid of the other one, in a business sense.
Migration is largely just a tool, a lazy way for inept politicians to continue the great god of economic growth. It's not hard to have growth if you have large immigration programs, but even that is proving less effective. The west is now beholden to a general stagnation, and they know not what to do.
The likeliest answer in my mind is that you can fool people into buying shit they don't need and accumulating debt they don't want for only so long. How much extra thrill do people really get going from an iphone 8 to an iphone X, FFS. Eventually they will work out not very much, after they bought iphone versions 3 through to 7 as soon as they come onto the market.
It's a shit storm and likely some very tough times ahead. There is no vision, there is no long term thinking, and that is across the western world. China still know how to play the long game but they have a different fistful of shit to deal with, which will become apparent as they become wealthier.
We have built our castles on sand, that realisation is dawning even for the dim witted.
What the seriously wealthy supporters of capital haven't taken into account is the possibility of this all leading to violent revolution. I'm not saying it's close, but it could be if enough things go bad.
Not surprising that capitalists believe that the one thing that governments should do is to protect private property, invariably theirs. So they'll be looking to government and probably private 'security consultants' to keep them safe, but that's no guarantee.
As for your second point, to divide and rule, well that's just the right being the right, that's what they do, mainly because it's the only idea they have had for 3 or 4 centuries and it seems to work well.
But don't mistake this schemozzle for a game plan. It ain't that, they barely have a plan to get around next week.
Blowin's spot on in that regard but I have to disagree with you Batfink.
Just think of the attack on Venezuela - it's a collusion of the largest corporations, the most powerful media and the highest levels of government.
This has been repeated again and again.
I think it's a very conscious set of actions with a high degree of control behind it.
But yes, the castles are still built on sand.
By the way, here's a rundown of propaganda 101 - it's all very familiar these days.
"And so we are seeing the opposite of a coming together, homogeneous humanity; rather, we are seeing a true diversity in thought and increasingly, religion."
Why is this a good thing when the identitarian's say it, but if, say, a black or a gay says it, then it's dastardly Identity Politics?
Aren't the identitarian's just, you know, identifying?
And I just sat through a day of HR bollocks that was like a piss-poor mix of the scientology doco 'Going Clear' and an episode of Utopia!
Now where was I? OK got it, guns, knives, Billy Big Ears and Scomo. All there somewhere. All curdled up into some foul concatenation of our current political plight mixed in some unimaginably bizarre and toxic way with events and personalities from 1972. And we are not talking metaphor or simile, we are talking reality. Deconstructed bits of deviant personalities sucked from way back then to right now through this wormhole and, and, and ....... It's coming, the logic of the thing is forming in some sub-conscious brain structure. All I have to do is keep the amygdala under control, keep the fear and loathing dialled down. An E-meter would help. I might even go clear! I need a Scientologist but it's not the sort of thing you can ask strangers without arousing suspicion. Are you a Scientologist? I mean it doesn't sound all that threatening but you can go dead neutral on body language and speak in an open hearted and friendly manner but the effect is still alarming. People back off, keeping their eyes tight on you, fight or flight mode kicking in as they back pedal slowly away, reaching for their mobile phone, scrolling down to Local Police in their contacts.
I'm hanging in there E-meter or no E-meter, there is work to be done. Got to find the dukun santet behind all this, get the right jamu and sort it before my amygdala explodes under the pressure of trying to stay calm. But the motherfuckers just keep coming. Frydenberg has just written a Budget so full of rubbery figures the damn thing will bounce if he drops it. Phillip fucking Lynch risen like Lazarus or Jesus, with a short haircut and an expensive suit but still the same old Phil, the textbook example of the Peter Principle. Barely competent Minister becomes Treasurer and fucks up the year nine maths. Jesus what next? Billy Mackie Snedden, all due respect to a bloke who dies on the job with his son's ex, but enough with the friggin' Billies, we got more than your average herd of goats already with McMahon and Wentworth.
Aaaagh! Internal amydalic pressure rising, time for some fun let's look at the political turdscape. Turd of the Month for March? Tough call. Anning was strong out of the blocks on sheer offensiveness but probably lacked reach. It's no use being a turd if not many are looking at you and those who do instantly go "Look at that turd!" Turd of the Month needs more than that, it needs a general shit splatter with no prior warning. Hanson? Stale turds start at a disadvantage but she's in the mix. Dutton? A perrenial favourite but not in his best form this month. To be fair it's difficult to perform when you have been locked in your Parliamentary office with the wi fi turned off, a flat battery in your mobile and strict instructions to keep the blinds closed until after the election. Which leaves us with a previous winner nailing an unprecedented triple turd. So, for trying to sell out Australia's gun laws, while a slurring incontinent drunk AND a One Nation official. Our March winner is the one, the only, the man holding the world record for a free dive in ethical conduct .......yep it's JAMES ASHBY!
Hahaha. Ashby is truly a carbuncular growth on the arse cheek that is Pauline's One Notion.
Agree that Ashby is a solid stool but I reckon Dickson should win Turd of the month....he's a real gun slinging talking shit gangsta drug lord wannabe King Shit of Turd Island.
You've got to laugh when you find out a Ukraine tv actor/comedian who plays a President and then runs for office will probably become President in real life.
Life imitates art.
More politicians with a sense of humour would be great.
More politicians with a moral compass, even better.
Hah! I thought that was an April Fools gag at first!
And on this day in 1649, Protestant radicals The Diggers occupied St. Georges Hill, Surrey, England and began working the land to set out to make the earth a 'common treasury for all.'
A short history:
Brexit any one want to have a punt where this goes, just fractured division right across the population / political landscape
99.9999999 percent chance it’ll never happen.