COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

JQ's picture
JQ's picture
JQ Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 6:21pm
Supafreak wrote:

JQ , there’s a good reason that the US had such a high death rate . People would go to hospital feeling unwell, tested and confirmed that they had covid . Then they were sent home and told to take tylenol . After 2 weeks people were getting admitted to hospital in advanced stages of the disease. Do you think the medical advice was appropriate ? Other doctors got together and tried everything possible. Today those doctors are the bad guys.

Those treatments were unproven Supa - remember, some people are stupid enough to inject and/or drink bleach.
Personally, having no medical training outside of a first aid course I did 10+ years ago, I can't really offer a qualified assessment of it, but as a whole I trust the medical profession and by and large they were on the same page.

I watched a few of thing you linked and the doctors promoting various treatments were certainly in earnest, but my suspicion is that they were perhaps not looking at it from a society wide perspective, the way that a chief medical officer has to for instance. As an example - which may not be correct for all the proposed treatments - a treatment which requires intensive supervision and administration by a doctor is all but useless in a pandemic, as there aren't enough doctors to treat all the sick in this manner. Just an example of how a doctor may be correct, but not looking at it from a society wide perspective.

How many people do you think decided not get vaccinated based on the various treatments that were not proven to a sufficient level to garner official health department approval? How many lives do you think this has cost?

JQ's picture
JQ's picture
JQ Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 6:25pm
Blowin wrote:

How many of the excess deaths are the result of the postponed surgeries, suicides, overdoses, domestic assaults, additional drinking and drink driving through unstructured living AKA unemployment and work from home, undetected and untreated diseases , home renovation injuries, liver destruction, stress induced disease , exacerbated lifestyle diseases due to confinement etc etc etc from the covid mitigation measures ?

As your post states, there is no way to ascribe fatalities to varying causes and no way to establish true contributing factors towards death. Your intention to link it to deaths from covid has no evidentiary basis.

You are misrepresenting me Blowin, I am specifically stating that you cannot ascribe those figures to deaths from covid. I am saying they sum up the overall societal impact of the pandemic, nothing more, nothing less. As I said in my original post:

"What this shows is how many more deaths than expected there were per million people over the aforementioned period. There is no differentiation between those who died with covid, from covid or from anything else. This merely shows how many more deaths there were than statistical trends predicted there should have been, this is a useful measure of the impact of the pandemic on an overall society scale."

Stop putting words in my mouth.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 6:32pm

Wow, sypkan, still comparing us to Niger.
This is idiotic in the extreme and you know it. What is it with conservatives fighting even harder when they know they are wrong?
Oh and ID, your love for Scumo is getting a little silly. Do you seriously think he's performed well during the pandemic? He abdicated his role in quarantine to the states, tried to undermine state border closures, fucked up the vaccine rollout, left the aged care sector woefully exposed, and still hasn't built any fit-for-purpose quarantine facilities after 2 fucking years.
I'd say Australia has done very well despite the bloke from marketing not because of him.

Supafreak's picture
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Supafreak Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 6:48pm
JQ wrote:
Supafreak wrote:

JQ , there’s a good reason that the US had such a high death rate . People would go to hospital feeling unwell, tested and confirmed that they had covid . Then they were sent home and told to take tylenol . After 2 weeks people were getting admitted to hospital in advanced stages of the disease. Do you think the medical advice was appropriate ? Other doctors got together and tried everything possible. Today those doctors are the bad guys.

Those treatments were unproven Supa - remember, some people are stupid enough to inject and/or drink bleach.
Personally, having no medical training outside of a first aid course I did 10+ years ago, I can't really offer a qualified assessment of it, but as a whole I trust the medical profession and by and large they were on the same page.

I watched a few of thing you linked and the doctors promoting various treatments were certainly in earnest, but my suspicion is that they were perhaps not looking at it from a society wide perspective, the way that a chief medical officer has to for instance. As an example - which may not be correct for all the proposed treatments - a treatment which requires intensive supervision and administration by a doctor is all but useless in a pandemic, as there aren't enough doctors to treat all the sick in this manner. Just an example of how a doctor may be correct, but not looking at it from a society wide perspective.

How many people do you think decided not get vaccinated based on the various treatments that were not proven to a sufficient level to garner official health department approval? How many lives do you think this has cost?

Those treatments were unproven ? thousands of lives saved by Dr Joseph Varon who is still saving lives today and you say unproven ? 600 patients treated in Australia and none died but again you say treatment is unproven? FMD what would it take ? So JQ you believe go home and isolate take tylenol is the best advice ? OK , I disagree

JQ's picture
JQ's picture
JQ Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 6:44pm
Blowin wrote:

How many of the excess deaths are the result of the postponed surgeries, suicides, overdoses, domestic assaults, additional drinking and drink driving through unstructured living AKA unemployment and work from home, undetected and untreated diseases , home renovation injuries, liver destruction, stress induced disease , exacerbated lifestyle diseases due to confinement etc etc etc from the covid mitigation measures ?

As your post states, there is no way to ascribe fatalities to varying causes and no way to establish true contributing factors towards death. Your intention to link it to deaths from covid has no evidentiary basis.

To further expand on Blowins post we could look at the official tally of covid deaths from the US which currently sits at 778,489 according to the CDC.

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailydeaths

And compare that figure to the one I extrapolated from the excess death figures of 819,479. This suggest two things to me.
1. The 778,489 figure is probably reasonably accurate.

2. The excess deaths due to the secondary effects of the pandemic, be that related to restrictions causing mental anguish or covid overloaded hospitals having to postpone surgeries and other medical procedures are somewhere around 40,990 - a solid order of magnitude less really.

Also interesting to compare the excess death figures from Australia and the US. Given the US had a comparatively very lax response to the pandemic, while we had one of the strictest responses. As from before, from this location:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-excess-deaths-per-million-...

One can see that Australias excess deaths were actually negative! On a per-capita basis Australia had -31.83 excess deaths per million compared to the US with 2490.82 per million. Now there's obviously loads and loads of factors at play, but it certainly puts a hole in the concept of all these deaths being caused by COVID related restrictions.

JQ's picture
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JQ Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 6:49pm
Supafreak wrote:

[
Those treatments were unproven ? thousands of lives saved by Dr Joseph Varon who is still saving lives today and you say unproven ? 600 patients treated in Australia and none died but again you say treatment is unproven? FMD what would it take ? So JQ you believe go home and isolate take tylenol is the bedt advice ? OK , I disagree

Settle down there tiger, don't put words in my mouth. I agree with the medical consensus, which at this point in time seems to be that the treatments you've spoken about lack the necessary evidence.

Neither you nor I are qualified to properly assess the veracity of the medical trial data Supa. I believe that as a whole the medical profession does have our best interests, as a society, in mind.

What do I believe is the best medical advice? The advice you get from your doctor.

Do you think you'll ever be vindicated? If so, when? Based on what you were saying many months ago, it should've all come out by now...

AndyM's picture
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AndyM Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 6:50pm

@Blowin
"Differing opinions and protest are the hallmarks of democracy."

The problem is, we've gone so far past differing "opinions", we've gone into the territory of different epistemologies.
That a big problem for a functioning democracy/society.
Especially when the "logos" (reason) in epistemology has to a fair extent been tossed out the window.

sypkan's picture
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sypkan Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 7:00pm
Vic Local wrote:

Wow, sypkan, still comparing us to Niger.
This is idiotic in the extreme and you know it. What is it with conservatives fighting even harder when they know they are wrong?
Oh and ID, your love for Scumo is getting a little silly. Do you seriously think he's performed well during the pandemic? He abdicated his role in quarantine to the states, tried to undermine state border closures, fucked up the vaccine rollout, left the aged care sector woefully exposed, and still hasn't built any fit-for-purpose quarantine facilities after 2 fucking years.
I'd say Australia has done very well despite the bloke from marketing not because of him.

really?

that's your response?

you are a twit

you are also the 'conservative' champ

answer me this vicvocal... you angry petrified little man conservative fake left twit...

what do you think happened in indonesia?

what changed, worked, didn't work... to such an extent in a developing abysmally vaxxed country...

...that the indo news are now asking... 'did corona just disappear?'

it's quite a turnaround mate, and just so you know, Im probably a lot closer to this little non vax miracle action than you think

and, I can tell you, as someone who's family's grandma 'died with covid' in indo... and who's family works in health care in indo... and who's family had covid at about a 50% rate in indo....

it's quite a turnaround... first hand knowledge champ...

so inform me oh all knowing one... what the hell happened to turn it around?

twit

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 6:57pm
Vic Local wrote:

Wow, sypkan, still comparing us to Niger.
This is idiotic in the extreme and you know it. What is it with conservatives fighting even harder when they know they are wrong?
Oh and ID, your love for Scumo is getting a little silly. Do you seriously think he's performed well during the pandemic? He abdicated his role in quarantine to the states, tried to undermine state border closures, fucked up the vaccine rollout, left the aged care sector woefully exposed, and still hasn't built any fit-for-purpose quarantine facilities after 2 fucking years.
I'd say Australia has done very well despite the bloke from marketing not because of him.

The results speak for themselves even you admit we have done well..

1. One of the lowest Covid death rates in the world, and would be much much much lower if it wasn't for Dans arrogance and fuck up that fucked up our figures.

2. The predicted recession, last a few months.

3. One of the worlds highest vax rates.

In regard to giving quarantine responsibility to the states, that was a smart move, it would have been crazy for the government to try to oversea quarantine in all states, it's just no realistic.

As for purpose built quarantine centres, which countries have built them? even NZ found the option not viable pretty much every country in the world used hotel quarantine or home quarantine.

It's obviously just a scape goat for Dan because of his huge failures and sadly he got it, 200 million that you can bet will blow out to more than that, and will barely get used.

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 7:00pm
JQ wrote:
Supafreak wrote:

[
Those treatments were unproven ? thousands of lives saved by Dr Joseph Varon who is still saving lives today and you say unproven ? 600 patients treated in Australia and none died but again you say treatment is unproven? FMD what would it take ? So JQ you believe go home and isolate take tylenol is the bedt advice ? OK , I disagree

Settle down there tiger, don't put words in my mouth. I agree with the medical consensus, which at this point in time seems to be that the treatments you've spoken about lack the necessary evidence.

Neither you nor I are qualified to properly assess the veracity of the medical trial data Supa. I believe that as a whole the medical profession does have our best interests, as a society, in mind.

What do I believe is the best medical advice? The advice you get from your doctor.

Do you think you'll ever be vindicated? If so, when? Based on what you were saying many months ago, it should've all come out by now...

Trials are currently being held by the NIH, Oxford university and Monash university , they are 3 trials, 7 more have also started in various universities in the US and around the world, many countries have adopted the protocols outlayed. Japan has no restrictions on doctors prescribing ivermectin. Do you really believe if there was zero evidence all this would be happening ? Enjoy your night

bluediamond's picture
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bluediamond Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 7:01pm

Just as an aside on democracy, I was listening to an interview with an American Indian fella on the community radio station the other day and his thoughts on democracy were interesting in that democracy didn't fare well for his people at all, as they were the ones that were sacrificed for democracy...same as here in Australia I guess. I know its a topic for another thread, it was just something that got me thinking.

JQ's picture
JQ's picture
JQ Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 7:02pm
Supafreak wrote:

Trials are currently being held by the NIH, Oxford university and Monash university , they are 3 trials, 7 more have also started in various universities in the US and around the world, many countries have adopted the protocols outlayed. Japan has no restrictions on doctors prescribing ivermectin. Do you really believe if there was zero evidence all this would be happening ? Enjoy your night

Seriously, can you just settle right down. I'm glad there's trials happening, so there should be, I've never said there was zero evidence - stop making stuff up just because you're shitty.

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 7:11pm
JQ wrote:
Supafreak wrote:

Trials are currently being held by the NIH, Oxford university and Monash university , they are 3 trials, 7 more have also started in various universities in the US and around the world, many countries have adopted the protocols outlayed. Japan has no restrictions on doctors prescribing ivermectin. Do you really believe if there was zero evidence all this would be happening ? Enjoy your night

Seriously, can you just settle right down. I'm glad there's trials happening, so there should be, I've never said there was zero evidence - stop making stuff up just because you're shitty.

Settle down ? I think you may be a bit sensitive JQ .

shortenism's picture
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shortenism Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 7:44pm

Don’t shoot the messenger:

Prof Christian Perronne, confirmed yesterday the rapidly deteriorating situation in Israel and the UK and stated that vaccinated people should be put in quarantine. He went on to say that unvaccinated ppl are not dangerous, vaccinated ppl are dangerous to others.

Roadkill's picture
Roadkill's picture
Roadkill Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 7:54pm
shortenism wrote:

Don’t shoot the messenger:

Prof Christian Perronne, confirmed yesterday the rapidly deteriorating situation in Israel and the UK and stated that vaccinated people should be put in quarantine. He went on to say that unvaccinated ppl are not dangerous, vaccinated ppl are dangerous to others.

Shorty as the messenger, is an idiot.
https://www.logically.ai/factchecks/library/ff3a5e49

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 8:05pm

"Don’t shoot the messenger:"
Oh please,
Prof Christian Perronne has been widely discredited but he's the darling of the conspiracy theorists.
He was interviewed in Hold-up (2020), a French film that puts forward the idea that the coronavirus crisis sits at the center of an elaborate international conspiracy. Despite having been removed from several video-sharing platforms, it has been viewed more than two million times.
Perronne was also dismissed from his university.
shortenism, you're an absolute joke.

Roadkill's picture
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Roadkill Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 8:19pm

Shorty…do you ever think to check something before you post it? Just for credibility sake and all.

burleigh's picture
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burleigh Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 8:43pm

Surprise Surprise. Hospital employees taking gifts from Big Pharma and not declaring

https://www.couriermail.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=CMWEB_WRE170...

shortenism's picture
shortenism's picture
shortenism Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 8:50pm

Far out you guys are wound up, ready to strike! Hahahaha... I keep telling u but u aren’t listening. He was removed from his uni? And? He was in a film suggesting Covid is a global conspiracy? And? Fact checkers said it’s not true? And? He was removed from platforms? And?

All of these things should tell you he is someone worth listening to. Especially as YouTube and FB narrow your reality into their narrative.

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 8:53pm

Peer reviewed study of hydroxychloroquine + zinc + Azithromycin is safe and effective for Covid treatment.

Why has the TGA banned this? Why do they only want to jab jab jab and one more jab (this year) then keep jabbing

Are patients dying that could be saved?

P.S: There is no swear words so Viclocal most likely wont understand or relate and roadkill may find a comma in the wrong spot and discredit the entire study.

https://www.cureus.com/articles/76496-therapies-to-prevent-progression-o...

shortenism's picture
shortenism's picture
shortenism Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 8:52pm

Furthermore Burleigh why does YouTube list the mention of it as a reason for a ‘strike’.. Yep she’s a twisted world.

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 8:54pm
shortenism wrote:

Furthermore Burleigh why does YouTube list the mention of it as a reason for a ‘strike’.. Yep she’s a twisted world.

Yep, and why does the #naturalimmunity on instagram go to a Covid website?

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 9:00pm

Are you ever going to believe you have been fooled?

No Significant Difference in Viral Load Between Vaccinated and Unvaccinated, Asymptomatic and Symptomatic Groups When Infected with SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant

Here is the study link:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.09.28.21264262v2

mattlock's picture
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mattlock Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 9:08pm

Surprise surprise burliegh. Instagram shucksters taking gifts from suckers and not declaring.
I've got no evidence, it's just a hunch.

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 9:17pm
mattlock wrote:

Surprise surprise burliegh. Instagram shucksters taking gifts from suckers and not declaring.
I've got no evidence, it's just a hunch.

nah, you completely missed the mark, but nice try.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 9:19pm

What a fucking joke. We are seriously letting this happen as a country?
50 police officers lose their jobs. For what. 50!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-01/covid-19-vaccination-mandate-enfo...

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 9:20pm
shortenism wrote:

Far out you guys are wound up, ready to strike! Hahahaha... I keep telling u but u aren’t listening. He was removed from his uni? And? He was in a film suggesting Covid is a global conspiracy? And? Fact checkers said it’s not true? And? He was removed from platforms? And?

All of these things should tell you he is someone worth listening to. Especially as YouTube and FB narrow your reality into their narrative.

Oh FFS shortenism. All of these things should tell you he is someone who IS NOT worth listening to.
"Especially as YouTube and FB narrow your reality into their narrative." We don't get our covid information from those sources you idiot. Sensible people go to multiple credible scientists, who haven't been kicked out of their universities, doing proper research.
You on the other hand do your resurch on YouTube.
It's pretty bloody clear to everyone that you will grab hold of anything that supports your conspiracy theories, no matter how discredited the source is.
You're beyond help. Way too far down the rabbit hole.

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 9:21pm
bluediamond wrote:

What a fucking joke. We are seriously letting this happen as a country?
50 police officers lose their jobs. For what. 50!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-01/covid-19-vaccination-mandate-enfo...

This is why we protest.

Group 1 industries must be fully vaccinated by December 31
Industries determined to have high transmission risk, vulnerability risk or are necessary or critical to the safety of the community.

number 10: Aboriginal peoples

WTF?

Roadkill's picture
Roadkill's picture
Roadkill Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 9:26pm
bluediamond wrote:

What a fucking joke. We are seriously letting this happen as a country?
50 police officers lose their jobs. For what. 50!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-01/covid-19-vaccination-mandate-enfo...

Reign in the fake outrage. Did you even read what you posted?
50 officers did not lose their jobs. They would not be at work today as they have not had their first shot..they will get visited by senior cops now to discuss why and what their plans are.

What a dick you are…at least try to be honest.

gragagan's picture
gragagan's picture
gragagan Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 9:27pm
Roadkill wrote:
bluediamond wrote:

What a fucking joke. We are seriously letting this happen as a country?
50 police officers lose their jobs. For what. 50!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-01/covid-19-vaccination-mandate-enfo...

Reign in the fake outrage. Did you even read what you posted?
50 officers did not lose their jobs. They would not be at work today as they have not had their first shot..they will get visited by senior cops now to discuss why and what their plans are.

What a dick you are…at least try to be honest.

On leave with full pay

JQ's picture
JQ's picture
JQ Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 9:32pm
burleigh wrote:

Are you ever going to believe you have been fooled?

No Significant Difference in Viral Load Between Vaccinated and Unvaccinated, Asymptomatic and Symptomatic Groups When Infected with SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant

Here is the study link:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.09.28.21264262v2

At the risk of engaging with fools...

This is not the full story burleigh.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261295v1

"Conclusion The mRNA vaccines are highly effective at preventing symptomatic and severe COVID-19 associated with B.1.617.2 infection. Vaccination is associated with faster decline in viral RNA load and a robust serological response. Vaccination remains a key strategy for control of COVID-19 pandemic."

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 9:39pm

Oh i'm sure they'll be back. Must have just forgotten.
Thanks for the insult too. Again.

Roadkill's picture
Roadkill's picture
Roadkill Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 9:57pm
bluediamond wrote:

Oh i'm sure they'll be back. Must have just forgotten.
Thanks for the insult too. Again.

No insult…just the truth.

You were/are a dick to post something and then make inaccurate comments.

You were either….
A. deliberately making false statements
or
B. posting something with associated outrage without even reading it.

Which was it, A or B?

Either way you were a dick to do it.

Supafreak's picture
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Supafreak Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 10:02pm

U.S. FDA panel narrowly backs Merck's at-home COVID-19 pill. https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/us-fda-panel... The drugmaker said its pill showed a 30% reduction in hospitalizations and deaths, based on data from 1,433 patients. In October, its data showed a roughly 50% efficacy, based on data from 775 patients. The drug, molnupiravir, was developed with partner Ridgeback Biotherapeutics. https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/merck-says-c... Funniest thing I find about all this is it was originally designed for treatment for …… horses .

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 10:22pm

Roadkill, you're not worth responding to. It's tedious and tiring.

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 11:35pm

Afrophobia
7th Nov (4 'Unreleased-Foreign' Nationals) arrived in Botswana with Omicron (It can be sequenced!)
'World was too Hasty to ban us..we detected the VOC & we get it & we get Punished!'
Not based on science! (World Science Experts : 'Already too late!')
All wealthy High Vax nation Labs shopped Omicron in the final week before the travel ban Hooter.

Africa has few Vax Labs / Bunnings / PPE / Compliant Vaccinators
Covax dumps Excess > 'close to use by Date' Vax on their shore.
Africa are left with no choice than to Mass Vax without Healthcare Teams or PPE...
Naturally the Vax Hubs become #1 Hot Spots spreading Covax Infections of 3,000-10,000/day.

WHO blames Boosting Nations for depriving Africa.
Africa blames WHO for Hesitants naturally associating Vax Rollout with Covid Rollout. (Wot else!)
Africa has Pfizer / J&J Vax in stock & coincidentally just found a reasonably poor reason to Vax.
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/exclusive-south-africa-delays-covid...
Train of thought being..."Grim Reaper" to frighten the Masses into Vaxing before the use by date!

Omicron or "Close the Vax Gap"
Journos claim Africa is at the Mercy of strings attached - China's Multi $ Billion Covid Aid.

Omicron Nations all share low Vax & so were awarded Travel Bans for their Zero Covid contribution!
Omicron Fear Factor / Mandates / Travel Bans have spiked a record Vax uptake in SA.

Vax > Banned Nation > Covax Spike Cases > Lowering Vax - cases > recent Omicron spike.

3.2% Malawi Covax 1,316 cases/day > Nov 0 cases > current long standing avg of 15 cases
3.8% Zambia Covax 3,110 cases/day > current 0 cases
11.8% Namibia Covax 2,602 cases/day > current 0 cases
12.6% Mozambique Covax 2,460 cases/day > current 0/cases

WHO / Experts / MSM again dangerously lie by claiming Low Vax Nations spawn new VOC beast!
Note the virus was flown in by Foreign Diplomats...Bully Vax Experts would know by whom & why?
Note EU / Oz spread more Omicron than the Lower Vaxed South African Nations.
20 of the worlds most vaxed are Top Delta spreaderz & the same spread Omicron worldwide in a week.
Africa's low vax nations prove Bully Experts as fools yet again...for the 1,000th time this pandemic!

19.5% Zimbabwe Covax 3,110 cases/day > 40/day > current spike 399/day
20.4% Botswana Covax 8,535 cases/day drop Nov spike 5,654 > dropping to current 159/day
Note: Botswana may be Bundling data (Common in Africa)...might see another large spike soon!
22.7% Eswatini > Covax 1,068 cases/day > Nov 0 cases > current spike 74/day
24.6% South Africa > Covax 26,645 cases/day > Nov 264/day > current spike to 4,373/day
33% Lesotho > Original 1,326/day > Covax 1,025/day > dropping to 33/day
79% Seychelles > Vax Era 1,012/day > Nov 200 day > current spike 366/day
Readers can only assume recent spikes are Omicron.

Vax Experts
WHO : "Omicron is a very High Risk!"
https://khn.org/morning-breakout/who-warns-omicron-a-very-high-risk-as-i...
Moderna CEO : "Current Vax will be less effective against Omicron!"
Biontech CEO Ugar : "Omicron could lead to more vaxed becoming more infected. Omicron will likely be able to evade antibodies generated by Vax better than Delta, due to higher VOC mutations!"
Fauci : "Boosters should give some degree of cross protection!"
Top Scientists : "This isn't going to be good!"
CSIRO : Expert Commentary.
https://www.csiro.au/en/news/news-releases/2021/expert-commentary-omicro...

Superfast infection rate > Infects Toddlers 10% > SA Unis are fast Mandating Vax for 2022
Omicron breakthru AZ Vax + Double Vaxed > HK/Aussies/ Italian spread omicron to 5 family
Omicron breakthru of 3rd dose Pfizer Boosters of 2 Israeli Doctors (Suffering Mild Symptoms)
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/two-israeli-...
Considering SA has low Vax, any breakthrus are more concerning to scale of Worldly vax home care!
People warn that Omicron hasn't fully played out in all demographics...too early to know.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 7:04am
JQ wrote:
burleigh wrote:

Are you ever going to believe you have been fooled?

No Significant Difference in Viral Load Between Vaccinated and Unvaccinated, Asymptomatic and Symptomatic Groups When Infected with SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant

Here is the study link:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.09.28.21264262v2

At the risk of engaging with fools...

This is not the full story burleigh.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261295v1

"Conclusion The mRNA vaccines are highly effective at preventing symptomatic and severe COVID-19 associated with B.1.617.2 infection. Vaccination is associated with faster decline in viral RNA load and a robust serological response. Vaccination remains a key strategy for control of COVID-19 pandemic."

Looks like Burleigh doesn't actually read the stuff he shares, just regurgitates what others in his echo chamber do.

Thanks for bringing light to that study though!

san Guine's picture
san Guine's picture
san Guine Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 7:26am

I done my research on Swellnet and I now know who to blame:

China, Wuhan, the obese, the elderly, Fauci, Ponzi, Biden, Antifa, Hiliary, mRNA, the elites, intellectuals, scientists, 5G, Soros, Gates, Big Pharma, small Pharma, farmer wants a wife, BLM, the middle class, the upper class, the class half full, property developers, tree-changers, sea-changers, Niger, Andrews, Morrison, Hunt, Kamala, 9/11, muslim extremists, the government, New World Order, moon landings, a grassy knoll, Roswell, vaccines, autism, the Pentagon, the Pentagram, hipsters, those people who get more waves than me, faders, snakes, freakers, tweakers, fake left, MSM, Pizzagate, Wu-flu, Gladys, Commies, Socialists, Nazis, anyone with a formal education, anyone who says something that might disrupt my world view, #Metoo, the Greek alphabet, taxes, medicine, medications, blue-bloods, tall poppies, Pop will eat itself, facemasks, lockdowns, curfews, clubbies, sharks, do-gooders, non-binary and real estate agents.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 7:29am

OMFG:
Omicron and Delta is an anagram of "MeDia cOntRoL"
It's all so obvious now. I've been a bloody fool and have been awaken. And in other news from my colleagues who have done their own resurch, the Red Cross are desperate for unvaccinated blood because the other stuff is toxic, and Dan Andrews is due in the Myrtleford Magistrates Court on Dec 17. He's being tried for treason.
See you at the next Freedom March.

Roadkill's picture
Roadkill's picture
Roadkill Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 7:42am

“Looks like Burleigh doesn't actually read the stuff he shares, just regurgitates what others in his echo chamber do.”

Birds of a feather….

bluediamond is the same…apparently its too much to expect truthful posts.

A or B, what say you, bluediamond?

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 8:01am
Craig wrote:
JQ wrote:
burleigh wrote:

Are you ever going to believe you have been fooled?

No Significant Difference in Viral Load Between Vaccinated and Unvaccinated, Asymptomatic and Symptomatic Groups When Infected with SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant

Here is the study link:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.09.28.21264262v2

At the risk of engaging with fools...

This is not the full story burleigh.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261295v1

"Conclusion The mRNA vaccines are highly effective at preventing symptomatic and severe COVID-19 associated with B.1.617.2 infection. Vaccination is associated with faster decline in viral RNA load and a robust serological response. Vaccination remains a key strategy for control of COVID-19 pandemic."

Looks like Burleigh doesn't actually read the stuff he shares, just regurgitates what others in his echo chamber do.

Thanks for bringing light to that study though!

Craig…..The point being argued was Roadkill’s claim that unvaccinated carry a viral load 20 times that of unvaccinated when infected. Could you please show me the part of that study which confirms this claim.

I haven’t read the study myself. Thanks mate.

PS….Omicron is an anagram of Moronic. Particularly apt for the panic mongers.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 8:04am
san Guine wrote:

I done my research on Swellnet and I now know who to blame:

China, Wuhan, the obese, the elderly, Fauci, Ponzi, Biden, Antifa, Hiliary, mRNA, the elites, intellectuals, scientists, 5G, Soros, Gates, Big Pharma, small Pharma, farmer wants a wife, BLM, the middle class, the upper class, the class half full, property developers, tree-changers, sea-changers, Niger, Andrews, Morrison, Hunt, Kamala, 9/11, muslim extremists, the government, New World Order, moon landings, a grassy knoll, Roswell, vaccines, autism, the Pentagon, the Pentagram, hipsters, those people who get more waves than me, faders, snakes, freakers, tweakers, fake left, MSM, Pizzagate, Wu-flu, Gladys, Commies, Socialists, Nazis, anyone with a formal education, anyone who says something that might disrupt my world view, #Metoo, the Greek alphabet, taxes, medicine, medications, blue-bloods, tall poppies, Pop will eat itself, facemasks, lockdowns, curfews, clubbies, sharks, do-gooders, non-binary and real estate agents.

San Guine - Research not required. Merely parsing the difference between the media narrative and the reality is enough.

Here’s an article from the ABC last week. Have a read and see if you can discern any possible reasons that this article could be considered to contain a misleading narrative. I’ll follow up later. The headline itself is a beauty!

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-26/africa-travel-restrictions-impose...

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 8:07am

Real life

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 8:10am
Blowin wrote:
Craig wrote:
JQ wrote:
burleigh wrote:

Are you ever going to believe you have been fooled?

No Significant Difference in Viral Load Between Vaccinated and Unvaccinated, Asymptomatic and Symptomatic Groups When Infected with SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant

Here is the study link:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.09.28.21264262v2

At the risk of engaging with fools...

This is not the full story burleigh.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261295v1

"Conclusion The mRNA vaccines are highly effective at preventing symptomatic and severe COVID-19 associated with B.1.617.2 infection. Vaccination is associated with faster decline in viral RNA load and a robust serological response. Vaccination remains a key strategy for control of COVID-19 pandemic."

Looks like Burleigh doesn't actually read the stuff he shares, just regurgitates what others in his echo chamber do.

Thanks for bringing light to that study though!

Craig…..The point being argued was Roadkill’s claim that unvaccinated carry a viral load 20 times that of unvaccinated when infected. Could you please show me the part of that study which confirms this claim

I've not read or looked into those statements by Roadkill so can't comment. Just going off what Burleigh linked and his cherry picking of quotes.

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 8:23am

@indo , that was classic

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 8:31am
Craig wrote:
Blowin wrote:
Craig wrote:
JQ wrote:
burleigh wrote:

Are you ever going to believe you have been fooled?

No Significant Difference in Viral Load Between Vaccinated and Unvaccinated, Asymptomatic and Symptomatic Groups When Infected with SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant

Here is the study link:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.09.28.21264262v2

At the risk of engaging with fools...

This is not the full story burleigh.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261295v1

"Conclusion The mRNA vaccines are highly effective at preventing symptomatic and severe COVID-19 associated with B.1.617.2 infection. Vaccination is associated with faster decline in viral RNA load and a robust serological response. Vaccination remains a key strategy for control of COVID-19 pandemic."

Looks like Burleigh doesn't actually read the stuff he shares, just regurgitates what others in his echo chamber do.

Thanks for bringing light to that study though!

Craig…..The point being argued was Roadkill’s claim that unvaccinated carry a viral load 20 times that of unvaccinated when infected. Could you please show me the part of that study which confirms this claim

I've not read or looked into those statements by Roadkill so can't comment. Just going off what Burleigh linked and his cherry picking of quotes.

Craig, you're also cherry picking. Have you read my link & the other link shared? I don't think you have.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 8:52am

Blue Diamond will be stoked to know that in the future no one will be singled out and ridiculed for their beliefs.
He’ll also be pleased that there will be a prize in every McHappy meal and all participants will receive a trophy.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 8:55am

COVID-19 variant described as 'worst one yet' emerges in South Africa, prompting UK to ban travel from six countries
By the Specialist Reporting Team's Mary Lloyd and wires
Posted Fri 26 Nov 2021 at 9:48amFriday 26 Nov 2021 at 9:48am, updated Fri 26 Nov 2021 at 7:18pmFriday 26 Nov 2021 at 7:18pm

Twenty-two COVID cases in South Africa have been linked to the "concerning" new variant.
Help keep family & friends informed by sharing this article

A new COVID-19 variant which appears more potent than earlier forms is behind a spike in new cases in South Africa, according to the country's health authorities.

Key points:

The variant contains a different spike protein to the one vaccines were based on
Scientists say its mutations could make it more infectious
The UK has temporarily banned flights from South Africa and five other countries
In an impromptu address late yesterday, South Africa's Health Minister and several experts warned mutations detected in the genetic code of the new COVID-19 variant could make the virus both more transmissible and better able to evade the immune system.

South Africa's National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) said it had detected 22 positive cases of the variant, currently known as B.1.1.529.

For the past few weeks, the country had been seeing a daily new case rate of several hundreds, but in the last few days it shot into the thousands and hit 2,465 yesterday.

Data collected by laboratories across the country point to the variant being mostly present in the densely populated province of Gauteng, which contains South Africa's largest city Johannesburg and administrative capital Pretoria. But the variant has also been found in other provinces.

A man receives a vaccine while a health worker behind looks inside a room on a train
The B.1.1.529 variant's mutations and transmissibility has concerned health officials. (Reuters: Siphiwe Sibeko )
The mutated virus has also been detected in Botswana and Hong Kong, where it was found in a traveller from South Africa.

In a statement, NICD acting executive director Adrian Puren said the goal now was to work out how the virus would behave.

"Our experts are working overtime with all the established surveillance systems to understand the new variant and what the potential implications could be," Professor Puren said.

The newly identified coronavirus variant is also worrying British health officials due to its high number of mutations and rapid spread among young people.

The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said B.1.1.529 had a spike protein that was dramatically different to the original coronavirus variant the vaccines were based on.

It said it had mutations that were likely to evade the immune response generated both by prior COVID-19 infection and vaccination.

It also had mutations associated with increased infectivity, the UKHSA said.

Officials characterised the variant, which has double the number of mutations as the currently dominant Delta variant, as the "worst one yet".

"What we do know is there's a significant number of mutations, perhaps double the number of mutations that we have seen in the Delta variant," Britain's Health Minister Sajid Javid said.

"And that would suggest that it may well be more transmissible and the current vaccines that we have may well be less effective."

Britain announced today it was temporarily banning flights from South Africa, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Lesotho and Eswatini.

British travellers returning from those destinations would have to quarantine, it said.

Lab studies were needed to assess the likelihood of the mutations resulting in greatly reduced vaccine efficacy, scientists said.

Officials advised the British government to act swiftly and pre-emptively in case concerns over the impact of the variant were borne out, even though it could take weeks to generate all the information needed about its characteristics.

Health Minister Greg Hunt said there would be no changes to Australia's border restrictions yet, but said health authorities were still learning about the new variant.

"If the medical advice is that we need to change [our border restrictions], we won't hesitate," he said.

"At this stage, the advice of the Chief Medical Officer … is that there's no basis for change."

Some 'good news' despite concerns

Earlier this week, South African scientists said they had detected the new COVID-19 variant in small numbers and were working to understand its potential implications.

The UKHSA said no cases of the variant had been detected in Britain and they were in contact with South African colleagues over their data.

South Africa's Health Minister, Joe Phaahlahas, said the country had seen an "exponential rise" in new infections due to the B.1.1.529 variant.

Tulio de Oliveira, from South Africa's Network for Genomic Surveillance, said studies into the variant were ongoing.

The team has 100 whole genomes of the variant and expects to have many more in the next few days.

The "very high number of mutations is a concern for predicted immune evasion and transmissibility", he said.

"We are concerned by the jump in evolution in this variant. The one piece of good news is that it can be detected by a PCR test."

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 8:59am

"Scientists face barrage of conspiracy theories and falsehoods at unprecedented levels, study finds"

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/dec/02/traitor-the-austr...