COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

Roadkill's picture
Roadkill's picture
Roadkill Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 9:57pm
bluediamond wrote:

Oh i'm sure they'll be back. Must have just forgotten.
Thanks for the insult too. Again.

No insult…just the truth.

You were/are a dick to post something and then make inaccurate comments.

You were either….
A. deliberately making false statements
or
B. posting something with associated outrage without even reading it.

Which was it, A or B?

Either way you were a dick to do it.

Supafreak's picture
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Supafreak Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 10:02pm

U.S. FDA panel narrowly backs Merck's at-home COVID-19 pill. https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/us-fda-panel... The drugmaker said its pill showed a 30% reduction in hospitalizations and deaths, based on data from 1,433 patients. In October, its data showed a roughly 50% efficacy, based on data from 775 patients. The drug, molnupiravir, was developed with partner Ridgeback Biotherapeutics. https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/merck-says-c... Funniest thing I find about all this is it was originally designed for treatment for …… horses .

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 10:22pm

Roadkill, you're not worth responding to. It's tedious and tiring.

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 11:35pm

Afrophobia
7th Nov (4 'Unreleased-Foreign' Nationals) arrived in Botswana with Omicron (It can be sequenced!)
'World was too Hasty to ban us..we detected the VOC & we get it & we get Punished!'
Not based on science! (World Science Experts : 'Already too late!')
All wealthy High Vax nation Labs shopped Omicron in the final week before the travel ban Hooter.

Africa has few Vax Labs / Bunnings / PPE / Compliant Vaccinators
Covax dumps Excess > 'close to use by Date' Vax on their shore.
Africa are left with no choice than to Mass Vax without Healthcare Teams or PPE...
Naturally the Vax Hubs become #1 Hot Spots spreading Covax Infections of 3,000-10,000/day.

WHO blames Boosting Nations for depriving Africa.
Africa blames WHO for Hesitants naturally associating Vax Rollout with Covid Rollout. (Wot else!)
Africa has Pfizer / J&J Vax in stock & coincidentally just found a reasonably poor reason to Vax.
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/exclusive-south-africa-delays-covid...
Train of thought being..."Grim Reaper" to frighten the Masses into Vaxing before the use by date!

Omicron or "Close the Vax Gap"
Journos claim Africa is at the Mercy of strings attached - China's Multi $ Billion Covid Aid.

Omicron Nations all share low Vax & so were awarded Travel Bans for their Zero Covid contribution!
Omicron Fear Factor / Mandates / Travel Bans have spiked a record Vax uptake in SA.

Vax > Banned Nation > Covax Spike Cases > Lowering Vax - cases > recent Omicron spike.

3.2% Malawi Covax 1,316 cases/day > Nov 0 cases > current long standing avg of 15 cases
3.8% Zambia Covax 3,110 cases/day > current 0 cases
11.8% Namibia Covax 2,602 cases/day > current 0 cases
12.6% Mozambique Covax 2,460 cases/day > current 0/cases

WHO / Experts / MSM again dangerously lie by claiming Low Vax Nations spawn new VOC beast!
Note the virus was flown in by Foreign Diplomats...Bully Vax Experts would know by whom & why?
Note EU / Oz spread more Omicron than the Lower Vaxed South African Nations.
20 of the worlds most vaxed are Top Delta spreaderz & the same spread Omicron worldwide in a week.
Africa's low vax nations prove Bully Experts as fools yet again...for the 1,000th time this pandemic!

19.5% Zimbabwe Covax 3,110 cases/day > 40/day > current spike 399/day
20.4% Botswana Covax 8,535 cases/day drop Nov spike 5,654 > dropping to current 159/day
Note: Botswana may be Bundling data (Common in Africa)...might see another large spike soon!
22.7% Eswatini > Covax 1,068 cases/day > Nov 0 cases > current spike 74/day
24.6% South Africa > Covax 26,645 cases/day > Nov 264/day > current spike to 4,373/day
33% Lesotho > Original 1,326/day > Covax 1,025/day > dropping to 33/day
79% Seychelles > Vax Era 1,012/day > Nov 200 day > current spike 366/day
Readers can only assume recent spikes are Omicron.

Vax Experts
WHO : "Omicron is a very High Risk!"
https://khn.org/morning-breakout/who-warns-omicron-a-very-high-risk-as-i...
Moderna CEO : "Current Vax will be less effective against Omicron!"
Biontech CEO Ugar : "Omicron could lead to more vaxed becoming more infected. Omicron will likely be able to evade antibodies generated by Vax better than Delta, due to higher VOC mutations!"
Fauci : "Boosters should give some degree of cross protection!"
Top Scientists : "This isn't going to be good!"
CSIRO : Expert Commentary.
https://www.csiro.au/en/news/news-releases/2021/expert-commentary-omicro...

Superfast infection rate > Infects Toddlers 10% > SA Unis are fast Mandating Vax for 2022
Omicron breakthru AZ Vax + Double Vaxed > HK/Aussies/ Italian spread omicron to 5 family
Omicron breakthru of 3rd dose Pfizer Boosters of 2 Israeli Doctors (Suffering Mild Symptoms)
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/two-israeli-...
Considering SA has low Vax, any breakthrus are more concerning to scale of Worldly vax home care!
People warn that Omicron hasn't fully played out in all demographics...too early to know.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 7:04am
JQ wrote:
burleigh wrote:

Are you ever going to believe you have been fooled?

No Significant Difference in Viral Load Between Vaccinated and Unvaccinated, Asymptomatic and Symptomatic Groups When Infected with SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant

Here is the study link:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.09.28.21264262v2

At the risk of engaging with fools...

This is not the full story burleigh.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261295v1

"Conclusion The mRNA vaccines are highly effective at preventing symptomatic and severe COVID-19 associated with B.1.617.2 infection. Vaccination is associated with faster decline in viral RNA load and a robust serological response. Vaccination remains a key strategy for control of COVID-19 pandemic."

Looks like Burleigh doesn't actually read the stuff he shares, just regurgitates what others in his echo chamber do.

Thanks for bringing light to that study though!

san Guine's picture
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san Guine Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 7:26am

I done my research on Swellnet and I now know who to blame:

China, Wuhan, the obese, the elderly, Fauci, Ponzi, Biden, Antifa, Hiliary, mRNA, the elites, intellectuals, scientists, 5G, Soros, Gates, Big Pharma, small Pharma, farmer wants a wife, BLM, the middle class, the upper class, the class half full, property developers, tree-changers, sea-changers, Niger, Andrews, Morrison, Hunt, Kamala, 9/11, muslim extremists, the government, New World Order, moon landings, a grassy knoll, Roswell, vaccines, autism, the Pentagon, the Pentagram, hipsters, those people who get more waves than me, faders, snakes, freakers, tweakers, fake left, MSM, Pizzagate, Wu-flu, Gladys, Commies, Socialists, Nazis, anyone with a formal education, anyone who says something that might disrupt my world view, #Metoo, the Greek alphabet, taxes, medicine, medications, blue-bloods, tall poppies, Pop will eat itself, facemasks, lockdowns, curfews, clubbies, sharks, do-gooders, non-binary and real estate agents.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 7:29am

OMFG:
Omicron and Delta is an anagram of "MeDia cOntRoL"
It's all so obvious now. I've been a bloody fool and have been awaken. And in other news from my colleagues who have done their own resurch, the Red Cross are desperate for unvaccinated blood because the other stuff is toxic, and Dan Andrews is due in the Myrtleford Magistrates Court on Dec 17. He's being tried for treason.
See you at the next Freedom March.

Roadkill's picture
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Roadkill Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 7:42am

“Looks like Burleigh doesn't actually read the stuff he shares, just regurgitates what others in his echo chamber do.”

Birds of a feather….

bluediamond is the same…apparently its too much to expect truthful posts.

A or B, what say you, bluediamond?

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 8:01am
Craig wrote:
JQ wrote:
burleigh wrote:

Are you ever going to believe you have been fooled?

No Significant Difference in Viral Load Between Vaccinated and Unvaccinated, Asymptomatic and Symptomatic Groups When Infected with SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant

Here is the study link:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.09.28.21264262v2

At the risk of engaging with fools...

This is not the full story burleigh.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261295v1

"Conclusion The mRNA vaccines are highly effective at preventing symptomatic and severe COVID-19 associated with B.1.617.2 infection. Vaccination is associated with faster decline in viral RNA load and a robust serological response. Vaccination remains a key strategy for control of COVID-19 pandemic."

Looks like Burleigh doesn't actually read the stuff he shares, just regurgitates what others in his echo chamber do.

Thanks for bringing light to that study though!

Craig…..The point being argued was Roadkill’s claim that unvaccinated carry a viral load 20 times that of unvaccinated when infected. Could you please show me the part of that study which confirms this claim.

I haven’t read the study myself. Thanks mate.

PS….Omicron is an anagram of Moronic. Particularly apt for the panic mongers.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 8:04am
san Guine wrote:

I done my research on Swellnet and I now know who to blame:

China, Wuhan, the obese, the elderly, Fauci, Ponzi, Biden, Antifa, Hiliary, mRNA, the elites, intellectuals, scientists, 5G, Soros, Gates, Big Pharma, small Pharma, farmer wants a wife, BLM, the middle class, the upper class, the class half full, property developers, tree-changers, sea-changers, Niger, Andrews, Morrison, Hunt, Kamala, 9/11, muslim extremists, the government, New World Order, moon landings, a grassy knoll, Roswell, vaccines, autism, the Pentagon, the Pentagram, hipsters, those people who get more waves than me, faders, snakes, freakers, tweakers, fake left, MSM, Pizzagate, Wu-flu, Gladys, Commies, Socialists, Nazis, anyone with a formal education, anyone who says something that might disrupt my world view, #Metoo, the Greek alphabet, taxes, medicine, medications, blue-bloods, tall poppies, Pop will eat itself, facemasks, lockdowns, curfews, clubbies, sharks, do-gooders, non-binary and real estate agents.

San Guine - Research not required. Merely parsing the difference between the media narrative and the reality is enough.

Here’s an article from the ABC last week. Have a read and see if you can discern any possible reasons that this article could be considered to contain a misleading narrative. I’ll follow up later. The headline itself is a beauty!

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-26/africa-travel-restrictions-impose...

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 8:07am

Real life

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 8:10am
Blowin wrote:
Craig wrote:
JQ wrote:
burleigh wrote:

Are you ever going to believe you have been fooled?

No Significant Difference in Viral Load Between Vaccinated and Unvaccinated, Asymptomatic and Symptomatic Groups When Infected with SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant

Here is the study link:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.09.28.21264262v2

At the risk of engaging with fools...

This is not the full story burleigh.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261295v1

"Conclusion The mRNA vaccines are highly effective at preventing symptomatic and severe COVID-19 associated with B.1.617.2 infection. Vaccination is associated with faster decline in viral RNA load and a robust serological response. Vaccination remains a key strategy for control of COVID-19 pandemic."

Looks like Burleigh doesn't actually read the stuff he shares, just regurgitates what others in his echo chamber do.

Thanks for bringing light to that study though!

Craig…..The point being argued was Roadkill’s claim that unvaccinated carry a viral load 20 times that of unvaccinated when infected. Could you please show me the part of that study which confirms this claim

I've not read or looked into those statements by Roadkill so can't comment. Just going off what Burleigh linked and his cherry picking of quotes.

Supafreak's picture
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Supafreak Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 8:23am

@indo , that was classic

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 8:31am
Craig wrote:
Blowin wrote:
Craig wrote:
JQ wrote:
burleigh wrote:

Are you ever going to believe you have been fooled?

No Significant Difference in Viral Load Between Vaccinated and Unvaccinated, Asymptomatic and Symptomatic Groups When Infected with SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant

Here is the study link:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.09.28.21264262v2

At the risk of engaging with fools...

This is not the full story burleigh.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261295v1

"Conclusion The mRNA vaccines are highly effective at preventing symptomatic and severe COVID-19 associated with B.1.617.2 infection. Vaccination is associated with faster decline in viral RNA load and a robust serological response. Vaccination remains a key strategy for control of COVID-19 pandemic."

Looks like Burleigh doesn't actually read the stuff he shares, just regurgitates what others in his echo chamber do.

Thanks for bringing light to that study though!

Craig…..The point being argued was Roadkill’s claim that unvaccinated carry a viral load 20 times that of unvaccinated when infected. Could you please show me the part of that study which confirms this claim

I've not read or looked into those statements by Roadkill so can't comment. Just going off what Burleigh linked and his cherry picking of quotes.

Craig, you're also cherry picking. Have you read my link & the other link shared? I don't think you have.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 8:52am

Blue Diamond will be stoked to know that in the future no one will be singled out and ridiculed for their beliefs.
He’ll also be pleased that there will be a prize in every McHappy meal and all participants will receive a trophy.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 8:55am

COVID-19 variant described as 'worst one yet' emerges in South Africa, prompting UK to ban travel from six countries
By the Specialist Reporting Team's Mary Lloyd and wires
Posted Fri 26 Nov 2021 at 9:48amFriday 26 Nov 2021 at 9:48am, updated Fri 26 Nov 2021 at 7:18pmFriday 26 Nov 2021 at 7:18pm

Twenty-two COVID cases in South Africa have been linked to the "concerning" new variant.
Help keep family & friends informed by sharing this article

A new COVID-19 variant which appears more potent than earlier forms is behind a spike in new cases in South Africa, according to the country's health authorities.

Key points:

The variant contains a different spike protein to the one vaccines were based on
Scientists say its mutations could make it more infectious
The UK has temporarily banned flights from South Africa and five other countries
In an impromptu address late yesterday, South Africa's Health Minister and several experts warned mutations detected in the genetic code of the new COVID-19 variant could make the virus both more transmissible and better able to evade the immune system.

South Africa's National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) said it had detected 22 positive cases of the variant, currently known as B.1.1.529.

For the past few weeks, the country had been seeing a daily new case rate of several hundreds, but in the last few days it shot into the thousands and hit 2,465 yesterday.

Data collected by laboratories across the country point to the variant being mostly present in the densely populated province of Gauteng, which contains South Africa's largest city Johannesburg and administrative capital Pretoria. But the variant has also been found in other provinces.

A man receives a vaccine while a health worker behind looks inside a room on a train
The B.1.1.529 variant's mutations and transmissibility has concerned health officials. (Reuters: Siphiwe Sibeko )
The mutated virus has also been detected in Botswana and Hong Kong, where it was found in a traveller from South Africa.

In a statement, NICD acting executive director Adrian Puren said the goal now was to work out how the virus would behave.

"Our experts are working overtime with all the established surveillance systems to understand the new variant and what the potential implications could be," Professor Puren said.

The newly identified coronavirus variant is also worrying British health officials due to its high number of mutations and rapid spread among young people.

The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said B.1.1.529 had a spike protein that was dramatically different to the original coronavirus variant the vaccines were based on.

It said it had mutations that were likely to evade the immune response generated both by prior COVID-19 infection and vaccination.

It also had mutations associated with increased infectivity, the UKHSA said.

Officials characterised the variant, which has double the number of mutations as the currently dominant Delta variant, as the "worst one yet".

"What we do know is there's a significant number of mutations, perhaps double the number of mutations that we have seen in the Delta variant," Britain's Health Minister Sajid Javid said.

"And that would suggest that it may well be more transmissible and the current vaccines that we have may well be less effective."

Britain announced today it was temporarily banning flights from South Africa, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Lesotho and Eswatini.

British travellers returning from those destinations would have to quarantine, it said.

Lab studies were needed to assess the likelihood of the mutations resulting in greatly reduced vaccine efficacy, scientists said.

Officials advised the British government to act swiftly and pre-emptively in case concerns over the impact of the variant were borne out, even though it could take weeks to generate all the information needed about its characteristics.

Health Minister Greg Hunt said there would be no changes to Australia's border restrictions yet, but said health authorities were still learning about the new variant.

"If the medical advice is that we need to change [our border restrictions], we won't hesitate," he said.

"At this stage, the advice of the Chief Medical Officer … is that there's no basis for change."

Some 'good news' despite concerns

Earlier this week, South African scientists said they had detected the new COVID-19 variant in small numbers and were working to understand its potential implications.

The UKHSA said no cases of the variant had been detected in Britain and they were in contact with South African colleagues over their data.

South Africa's Health Minister, Joe Phaahlahas, said the country had seen an "exponential rise" in new infections due to the B.1.1.529 variant.

Tulio de Oliveira, from South Africa's Network for Genomic Surveillance, said studies into the variant were ongoing.

The team has 100 whole genomes of the variant and expects to have many more in the next few days.

The "very high number of mutations is a concern for predicted immune evasion and transmissibility", he said.

"We are concerned by the jump in evolution in this variant. The one piece of good news is that it can be detected by a PCR test."

AndyM's picture
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AndyM Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 8:59am

"Scientists face barrage of conspiracy theories and falsehoods at unprecedented levels, study finds"

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/dec/02/traitor-the-austr...

Roadkill's picture
Roadkill's picture
Roadkill Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 9:07am
Blowin wrote:
Craig wrote:
JQ wrote:
burleigh wrote:

Are you ever going to believe you have been fooled?

No Significant Difference in Viral Load Between Vaccinated and Unvaccinated, Asymptomatic and Symptomatic Groups When Infected with SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant

Here is the study link:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.09.28.21264262v2

At the risk of engaging with fools...

This is not the full story burleigh.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261295v1

"Conclusion The mRNA vaccines are highly effective at preventing symptomatic and severe COVID-19 associated with B.1.617.2 infection. Vaccination is associated with faster decline in viral RNA load and a robust serological response. Vaccination remains a key strategy for control of COVID-19 pandemic."

Looks like Burleigh doesn't actually read the stuff he shares, just regurgitates what others in his echo chamber do.

Thanks for bringing light to that study though!

Craig…..The point being argued was Roadkill’s claim that unvaccinated carry a viral load 20 times that of unvaccinated when infected. Could you please show me the part of that study which confirms this claim.

I haven’t read the study myself. Thanks mate.

PS….Omicron is an anagram of Moronic. Particularly apt for the panic mongers.

The point being argued was Roadkill’s claim that unvaccinated carry a viral load 20 times that of unvaccinated when infected.

I did not say this.

gsco's picture
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gsco Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 9:24am
AndyM wrote:

"Scientists face barrage of conspiracy theories and falsehoods at unprecedented levels, study finds"

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/dec/02/traitor-the-austr...

Really interesting article and it's no wonder scientists face this: academia is completely compromised and you can trust very little of the 'research' coming out of it, as explained in the article:

The Guardian wrote:

Lead author of the BMJ Open study, Dr Lisa Parker from the University of Sydney’s school of pharmacy, said she conducted interviews with Australian researchers and science communicators and asked for their views about flawed research and misinformation in the context of the pandemic, and more generally.

They shared concerns about long neglected issues in academia and media that led to misinformation, including the production of fraudulent or biased science research, pressures in research culture to constantly publish research papers, inadequate training in research misconduct, problems in the academic publishing system, and lack of public access to high quality research. They also said the loss of specialist journalists to explain and critically evaluable scientific studies, and lack of skilled science communicators, had played a part in the spread of misinformation.

Parker said a possible solution was to make academic publishing more transparent by removing paywalls for access to research, something long called for. Academic journals also needed to make comments from peer-reviewers – who scrutinise papers before they are published – public. Researchers should be mandated to register their studies including the study protocols, and should make any datasets that inform their findings public, Parker added.

We can’t expect people just to take what we do as face value. And you can only hope that by standing up and exposing the junk, we are showing that we are here to promote high quality, trustworthy information. I would also encourage the public to really be careful about where they’re getting their news from and to try to seek out reputable sources.

Academia is just another profit driven capitalist free-for-all.

It would be a very long, challenging and painful ordeal to clean up academia and the international journal system.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 9:15am

"The point being argued was Roadkill’s claim that unvaccinated carry a viral load 20 times that of unvaccinated when infected.

I did not say this."

Look on the bright side Roadkill. blowin is only misrepresenting you on medical opinions. The other day he was misrepresenting me saying I defended pedos.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 9:18am
Roadkill wrote:
Supafreak wrote:

Can someone explain to me how me being vaccinated protects those around me ? Omicron has shown just how ridiculous that statement from government and media is . As far as case numbers go , it’s not a realistic reflection of hospitalised patients , but the media love the hype .

An unvaccinated person is 20 x more likely to pass on covid to others. Your viral loading is reduced due to vaccines thus you don’t pass it on as much.

It’s completely incorrect to say “ Your viral loading is reduced due to vaccines” and then go on to use this as evidence of likelihood of vaccinated vs unvaccinated passing in the virus.

Roadkill….genuine question. Do you think that unvaccinated people should be excluded from society because they may allow a virus to mutate into more severe forms? Don’t you think this approach is discriminatory and extreme? The likelihood of this happening must be very small. Do you really believe that treating a sub section of society as pariahs on the basis that they MIGHT further the evolution of a virus is not an evil way to act?

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 9:23am
AndyM wrote:

Blue Diamond will be stoked to know that in the future no one will be singled out and ridiculed for their beliefs.
He’ll also be pleased that there will be a prize in every McHappy meal and all participants will receive a trophy.

Da Fuk?? What on earth are you on about??

bonza's picture
bonza's picture
bonza Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 9:24am

https://theconversation.com/no-vaccinated-people-are-not-just-as-infecti...

addresses the viral load link that burleigh posted (non-peer reviewed) but also the peer reviewed Lancet study

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 9:29am

"The likelihood of this happening must be very small"
And you base this statement on what exactly blowin? Years of medical research at a world class university? or did you see it on YouTube? or is it just one of your hunches?
Vaccine passports are not "discrimination" clown. They are a public health measure designed to protect sensible people from morons.
It's called consequences for people's choices, and don't the adult babies hate being held accountable. Newsflash blowin, we don't make laws in this country for the benefit of idiots who get their medical opinions from YouTube.

bonza's picture
bonza's picture
bonza Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 9:37am

"Academia is just another profit driven capitalist free-for-all.
It would be a very long, challenging and painful ordeal to clean up academia and the international journal system"

what's your solution gsco. you've been banging on about academia, scientific publishing and feeding the nutters that, given you work in the trade would be tickling their nipples with glee.

who should we trust? insta? no one? what do we do - just curl up in a ball and block everything out?

and this is not meant to be critical or nasty but why are you so bitter towards the scientific establishment? You are obviously one smart cookie but is it perhaps you had one too many manuscript knocked back - are you over it?

and to clear I see no shame in having papers rejected. but acknowledge the gutting frustration.

GuySmiley's picture
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GuySmiley Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 10:12am

Anyone care to comment on or attempt to defend the indefensible displays of anger and violence now being directed towards retail sales staff on a daily basis who are asking customers to prove their vaccination status?

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 10:19am
GuySmiley wrote:

Anyone care to comment on or attempt to defend the indefensible displays of anger and violence now being directed towards retail sales staff on a daily basis who are asking customers to prove their vaccination status?

Oh come on GS, these people are Freedom Fighters. Oh and that bloke who ran over people working at the testing clinic, well he's a freedom fighter too. Lots of crew cheering on that guy on social media.
But on a serious note, would anyone be shocked if the protest in Melbourne this Saturday exploded with cooker violence? CBD traders have already been warned to expect trouble.

Roadkill's picture
Roadkill's picture
Roadkill Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 10:20am
Blowin wrote:
Roadkill wrote:
Supafreak wrote:

Can someone explain to me how me being vaccinated protects those around me ? Omicron has shown just how ridiculous that statement from government and media is . As far as case numbers go , it’s not a realistic reflection of hospitalised patients , but the media love the hype .

An unvaccinated person is 20 x more likely to pass on covid to others. Your viral loading is reduced due to vaccines thus you don’t pass it on as much.

It’s completely incorrect to say “ Your viral loading is reduced due to vaccines” and then go on to use this as evidence of likelihood of vaccinated vs unvaccinated passing in the virus.

Roadkill….genuine question. Do you think that unvaccinated people should be excluded from society because they may allow a virus to mutate into more severe forms? Don’t you think this approach is discriminatory and extreme? The likelihood of this happening must be very small. Do you really believe that treating a sub section of society as pariahs on the basis that they MIGHT further the evolution of a virus is not an evil way to act?

Could you ask a more biased emotive bs question?

I believe everyone that can, should get vaxxed. However, it should not be compulsory. If someone choose not to get vaxxed there are consequences and certain activities are no longer open to them. Employers can terminate employees if employees choose to not get vaxxed.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 10:21am

A friend of mine only joined the police force last year and is currently on leave, so i can't help but think of her, and all the other officers who have dedicated their life to the force only to be treated like criminals. Thats 50 less officers on the streets protecting you and your family and the community.
https://www.6pr.com.au/wa-police-refusing-vaccination-will-face-discipli...
Each day i'm seeing more and more friends lose their jobs, here and interstate.
I work two jobs and in the next fortnight i'll be losing both of them due to the mandates. That means all the things i need to pay to survive on this planet are in jeopardy.
This is in a region where double vaxed are already well over 80percent, there's no covid and job losses from the lockdowns last year have been enormous.
Alot of people i know are trying to go bush, become self sustainable. The divide between vaxed and unvvaxed is growing stronger every day, you just have to look at this thread to see the pure vile hurled at those who refuse to get a vaccination that is still not mandatory by law.
The strange thing is, you don't see anyone hurling abuse at those who are vaxed. That's because there is a respect for personal choice.
No doubt what i will say will invoke fury in the usual suspects. Big deal. They're not the ones having to live through this situation of no jab no job. It's stressful, i wake up at night thinking, what the fuck am i gonna do??
But one thing i won't compromise is the right to say what does and doesn't go into my body, ESPECIALLY while it's still considered a trial medication, ESPECIALLY when it's completely new drugs, never trialled on humans before and ESPECIALLY when so many reports of vaccine injuries are now coming out.
And all along the numbers of this deadly virus just haven't added up. All along it's been obvious that unless you already have pre existing health conditions and are well into your twilight years, you're probably gonna be ok.
I know the angry mob are coming.
So i'll leave it at that. This thread has become too lopsided in the hatred and anger, which i unfortunately let get to me.
Do not trust the government and do not trust the media. Look with your own eyes at the segregation that now exists due to those two entities. They do not have our best interests at heart.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 10:27am

"only to be treated like criminals"

Aren't they on leave with full pay?

shortenism's picture
shortenism's picture
shortenism Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 10:30am

There's no excuse for anger and/or violence. But what I can say, is yeah no shit. The reality is sales / hospitality staff can face with violence and anger over lots of things regularly, so there's no need to polarise it over this issue but of course it is being polarised. Just another tool to tarnish those dangerous anti-vaxxers. That where ya going smiley?

Across my businesses I employ over 80 staff with many of them customer facing. Since this all started we've had to jump through hoop after hoop and have never had a problem.

But anger and violence can always be avoided by handling the situation.. Unfortunately its typically a righteous do-gooding staffer like a VL or a RK (you know the ones) that feel all authoritarian and want to dig in that pisses people off.

I mean welcome to the jungle. If ya gonna stand up for tyranny then ya gonna get some push back. What else can be said?

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 10:30am

But all the best navigating your way through this difficult period BD.

I really do wish you all the best.

Roadkill's picture
Roadkill's picture
Roadkill Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 10:35am
GuySmiley wrote:

Anyone care to comment on or attempt to defend the indefensible displays of anger and violence now being directed towards retail sales staff on a daily basis who are asking customers to prove their vaccination status?

My 18 year old daughter has a part time job at Coles....kook says to her "are you a fucking cunt?"
It's common and becoming more common..not only in regards to vax certs. The poor kids get abused all the time. People spit at them and chuck food on the ground if they don't get their way.

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 10:41am
Roadkill wrote:
GuySmiley wrote:

Anyone care to comment on or attempt to defend the indefensible displays of anger and violence now being directed towards retail sales staff on a daily basis who are asking customers to prove their vaccination status?

My 18 year old daughter has a part time job at Coles....kook says to her "are you a fucking cunt?"
It's common and becoming more common..not only in regards to vax certs. The poor kids get abused all the time. People spit at them and chuck food on the ground if they don't get their way.

. That’s terrible and disgusting what’s happening to your daughter roadkill, I’m a bit confused though as I didn’t think coles , Woolworths, aldi had to ask for proof of vaccination as Ive never been asked. The only places Ive been asked are the non essential shops like big W , best and less , kmart etc .

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 10:41am
Roadkill wrote:
GuySmiley wrote:

Anyone care to comment on or attempt to defend the indefensible displays of anger and violence now being directed towards retail sales staff on a daily basis who are asking customers to prove their vaccination status?

My 18 year old daughter has a part time job at Coles....kook says to her "are you a fucking cunt?"
It's common and becoming more common..not only in regards to vax certs. The poor kids get abused all the time. People spit at them and chuck food on the ground if they don't get their way.

. That’s terrible and disgusting what’s happening to your daughter roadkill, I’m a bit confused though as I didn’t think coles , Woolworths, aldi had to ask for proof of vaccination as Ive never been asked. The only places Ive been asked are the non essential shops like big W , best and less , kmart etc .

overthefalls's picture
overthefalls's picture
overthefalls Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 10:51am

BD, jeez you must feel very strongly about not getting the vaccine if you're willing to sacrifice your job, your income and your livelihood. Is it really worth it?

overthefalls's picture
overthefalls's picture
overthefalls Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 10:53am

I'm can sympathise with your daughter, Roadkill. My 16 year-old son works in IGA and he sometimes has to put up with irate, abusive customers who do not want to check in or wear a mask.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 10:55am

"But anger and violence can always be avoided by handling the situation.. Unfortunately its typically a righteous do-gooding staffer like a VL or a RK (you know the ones) that feel all authoritarian and want to dig in that pisses people off.

I mean welcome to the jungle. If ya gonna stand up for tyranny then ya gonna get some push back. What else can be said?"

Next level victim blaming there shortenism, and it certainly looks like you are excusing the special arseholes who don't think rules apply to them.

I pity your staff, and if they work in hospitality, they should walk and find a boss who will back them up,. Good money being paid for reliable people these days.

Roadkill's picture
Roadkill's picture
Roadkill Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 11:05am
Supafreak wrote:
Roadkill wrote:
GuySmiley wrote:

Anyone care to comment on or attempt to defend the indefensible displays of anger and violence now being directed towards retail sales staff on a daily basis who are asking customers to prove their vaccination status?

My 18 year old daughter has a part time job at Coles....kook says to her "are you a fucking cunt?"
It's common and becoming more common..not only in regards to vax certs. The poor kids get abused all the time. People spit at them and chuck food on the ground if they don't get their way.

. That’s terrible and disgusting what’s happening to your daughter roadkill, I’m a bit confused though as I didn’t think coles , Woolworths, aldi had to ask for proof of vaccination as Ive never been asked. The only places Ive been asked are the non essential shops like big W , best and less , kmart etc .

This was to do with a mask when they were required....was an example for when I said "not only in regards to vax certs"

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 11:06am
overthefalls wrote:

BD, jeez you must feel very strongly about not getting the vaccine if you're willing to sacrifice your job, your income and your livelihood. Is it really worth it?

Standing up for what is right. it takes HUGE courage. It's bigger than just taking the vaccine.

Although im not personally affected, i will protest for people like BD. We all stand together.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 11:07am

My 17 yr old daughter who works in health food shop has been harassed repeatedly.

The last time it happened, she called me in tears, and I went down the main street, found the perpetrators and offered them a very polite lesson in the local "jungle rules" as Shorto terms them.

gsco's picture
gsco's picture
gsco Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 11:13am

Bonza, I actually once wrote a long-winded letter to Kevin Rudd about all this when he was prime minister. And I got a fairly respectful response which to this day I still personally believe he wrote himself.

The lady Dr Lisa Parker from the article makes some good suggestions (and she's playing a dangerous game by speaking out publicly about academia).

bonza wrote:

and this is not meant to be critical or nasty

I'd actually prefer people to be critical and dissect and debunk stuff I say, it's one thing I value about these forums, helps me question myself and my biases, and grow as a person

bonza wrote:

why are you so bitter towards the scientific establishment...perhaps you had one too many manuscript knocked back - are you over it

actually I was snapped up as the head mathematician for a hedge fund before I finished my phd, and I've been able to publish some nice papers, so no bitterness. I think I'm just trying to point out what I see as going wrong. I agree that I probably am coming across as bitter and negative

bonza wrote:

what's your solution gsco. you've been banging on about academia, scientific publishing and feeding the nutters

A really good example of what's going wrong is the last page or two in this thread (and I'm guilty of doing it too). Commentators here and even a Guardian article are debating two papers linked. Both papers are from https://www.medrxiv.org/ which is just a preprint server, so the papers are not peer-reviewed and likely haven't even been submitted to a journal yet. People can publish basically anything they want on a preprint server. Each article has the disclaimer:

Also, one of them is even funded by the Zuckerbergs:

And when you read the papers there is research design alarm bells, in particular very small sample sizes. Their results are basically meaningless and no wonder papers keep getting published that conflict and contradict each other.

So the media is debating non-peer-reviewed publications from a preprint service with conflicted funding sources and experimental design issues...! This is not research.

These points from Dr Lisa Parker in the Guardian article is relevant here:

Dr Lisa Parker wrote:

- lack of public access to high quality research
- make academic publishing more transparent by removing paywalls for access to research

She makes very good points. Unfortunately the media and public only have access to open-access research; most of this is junk, not research. Open access needs to be given to all research from all journals. Her other points are very good:

Dr Lisa Parker wrote:

.- Academic journals also needed to make comments from peer-reviewers – who scrutinise papers before they are published – public.
- Researchers should be mandated to register their studies including the study protocols, and should make any datasets that inform their findings public

Some other points I'd add:

There should be a global independent body - independent of governments, universities, industry, the media, etc - that reviews all research deemed "critical" to public health and wellbeing.

Research from private industry, for instance about vaccines from vaccine manufacturers, should never be relied upon, under any circumstance. This is no different to me walking into the Apple store and asking the salesperson if I should buy a new iPad...

The renumeration and career progression structure of academia needs to reward research outcomes less and encourage teaching quality more.

Actually, there needs to be a clear separation of research-only vs teaching-only academics, and there shouldn't be academics who do both unless a research academic expresses an explicit interest in teaching a course. This is because trying to do teaching and research at the same time leads to being overworked and overstretched, one's mind trying to be in two completely different head-spaces at the one time, and lower quality outcomes for both.

There is a culture in academia of looking down upon teaching-focused academics as though they are inferior, second rate humans. This culture needs to end.

If you walk through the isles of every university in Australia, you tell me the cultural makeup and national backgrounds of the academics. Unfortunately there is a problem in academia in Australia of hiring a very significant number of Chinese and Indian etc academics over Australians. The reality is that most of these academics are engaged in publishing poor quality research in poor quality journals, hence are significantly contributing to the very problems that Dr Lisa Parker mentions. Yet we the tax payer are paying huge money (academics get paid between $100k and $200k per yr) to hire these overseas academics to engage in and compound the very problems academia is facing. This is retarded.

I could go on and if I remember some other points I'll mention them.

Your overriding question was:

bonza wrote:

who should we trust? insta? no one? what do we do - just curl up in a ball and block everything out?

My approach is to just embrace not knowing and accept the fact that we the general public, ordinary people, are unable to verify for ourselves or be certain about 99% of what's coming out of academia and getting spammed in the media. It's not about blocking everything out, but in consciously knowing that we do not know.

I just try to focus on living a healthy lifestyle that I personally find meaningful and doing the things in life I find enjoyment in.

Something shortenism said in here to me maybe 6 or 9 months ago had a positive impact on me. Something along the lines of just stay calm, keep surfing and let it all blow over. I've very grateful for him saying this and it helped me when I was having a bit of a panic about the whole covid situation.

When I close the laptop lid and step outside, I realise everything is ok and there is a very big disconnect between the online world and reality.

I always think about a quote from the move The Thin Red Line:
There's only one thing a man can do - find something that's his, and make an island for himself.

Roadkill's picture
Roadkill's picture
Roadkill Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 11:10am
overthefalls wrote:

I'm can sympathise with your daughter, Roadkill. My 16 year-old son works in IGA and he sometimes has to put up with irate, abusive customers who do not want to check in or wear a mask.

And it's not alway who you would expect abuse from. Older well dressed woman are common suspects..all socio economic groups. Older guys just say creepy sexual things to the younger girls. My daughter was most shocked at the way some mothers talk to and swear at their kids whilst in lines..with raised voices.

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 11:14am
Roadkill wrote:
Supafreak wrote:
Roadkill wrote:
GuySmiley wrote:

Anyone care to comment on or attempt to defend the indefensible displays of anger and violence now being directed towards retail sales staff on a daily basis who are asking customers to prove their vaccination status?

My 18 year old daughter has a part time job at Coles....kook says to her "are you a fucking cunt?"
It's common and becoming more common..not only in regards to vax certs. The poor kids get abused all the time. People spit at them and chuck food on the ground if they don't get their way.

. That’s terrible and disgusting what’s happening to your daughter roadkill, I’m a bit confused though as I didn’t think coles , Woolworths, aldi had to ask for proof of vaccination as Ive never been asked. The only places Ive been asked are the non essential shops like big W , best and less , kmart etc .

This was to do with a mask when they were required....was an example for when I said "not only in regards to vax certs"

ok ok thanks for clearing that up , Aldi had security guards at both tweed outlets and then they disappeared, its a bit rough to expect young kids to police masks, vaccine status etc , some people simply take offence because a young person is questioning them . Store managers would be better suited not 16 -18 yo kids

bonza's picture
bonza's picture
bonza Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 11:36am
gsco wrote:

Bonza, I actually once wrote a long-winded letter to Kevin Rudd about all this when he was prime minister. And I got a fairly respectful response which to this day I still personally believe he wrote himself.

The lady Dr Lisa Parker from the article makes some good suggestions (and she's playing a dangerous game by speaking out publicly about academia).

bonza wrote:

and this is not meant to be critical or nasty

I'd actually prefer people to be critical and dissect and debunk stuff I say, it's one thing I value about these forums, helps me question myself and my biases, and grow as a person

bonza wrote:

why are you so bitter towards the scientific establishment...perhaps you had one too many manuscript knocked back - are you over it

actually I was snapped up as the head mathematician for a hedge fund before I finished my phd, and I've been able to publish some nice papers, so no bitterness. I think I'm just trying to point out what I see as going wrong. I agree that I probably am coming across as bitter and negative

bonza wrote:

what's your solution gsco. you've been banging on about academia, scientific publishing and feeding the nutters

A really good example of what's going wrong is the last page or two in this thread (and I'm guilty of doing it too). Commentators here and even a Guardian article are debating two papers linked. Both papers are from https://www.medrxiv.org/ which is just a preprint server, so the papers are not peer-reviewed and likely haven't even been submitted to a journal yet. People can publish basically anything they want on a preprint server. Each article has the disclaimer:

Also, one of them is even funded by the Zuckerbergs:

And when you read the papers there is research design alarm bells, in particular very small sample sizes. Their results are basically meaningless and no wonder papers keep getting published that conflict and contradict each other.

So the media is debating non-peer-reviewed publications from a preprint service with conflicted funding sources and experimental design issues...! This is not research.

These points from Dr Lisa Parker in the Guardian article is relevant here:

Dr Lisa Parker wrote:

- lack of public access to high quality research
- make academic publishing more transparent by removing paywalls for access to research

She makes very good points. Unfortunately the media and public only have access to open-access research; most of this is junk, not research. Open access needs to be given to all research from all journals. Her other points are very good:

Dr Lisa Parker wrote:

.- Academic journals also needed to make comments from peer-reviewers – who scrutinise papers before they are published – public.
- Researchers should be mandated to register their studies including the study protocols, and should make any datasets that inform their findings public

Some other points I'd add:

There should be a global independent body - independent of governments, universities, industry, the media, etc - that reviews all research deemed "critical" to public health and wellbeing.

Research from private industry, for instance about vaccines from vaccine manufacturers, should never be relied upon, under any circumstance. This is no different to me walking into the Apple store and asking the salesperson if I should buy a new iPad...

The renumeration and career progression structure of academia needs to reward research outcomes less and encourage teaching quality more.

Actually, there needs to be a clear separation of research-only vs teaching-only academics, and there shouldn't be academics who do both unless a research academic expresses an explicit interest in teaching a course. This is because trying to do teaching and research at the same time leads to being overworked and overstretched, one's mind trying to be in two completely different head-spaces at the one time, and lower quality outcomes for both.

There is a culture in academia of looking down upon teaching-focused academics as though they are inferior, second rate humans. This culture needs to end.

If you walk through the isles of every university in Australia, you tell me the cultural makeup and national backgrounds of the academics. Unfortunately there is a problem in academia in Australia of hiring a very significant number of Chinese and Indian etc academics over Australians. The reality is that most of these academics are engaged in publishing poor quality research in poor quality journals, hence are significantly contributing to the very problems that Dr Lisa Parker mentions. Yet we the tax payer are paying huge money (academics get paid between $100k and $200k per yr) to hire these overseas academics to engage in and compound the very problems academia is facing. This is retarded.

I could go on and if I remember some other points I'll mention them.

Your overriding question was:

bonza wrote:

who should we trust? insta? no one? what do we do - just curl up in a ball and block everything out?

My approach is to just embrace not knowing and accept the fact that we the general public, ordinary people, are unable to verify for ourselves or be certain about 99% of what's coming out of academia and getting spammed in the media. It's not about blocking everything out, but in consciously knowing that we do not know.

I just try to focus on living a healthy lifestyle that I personally find meaningful and doing the things in life I find enjoyment in.

Something shortenism said in here to me maybe 6 or 9 months ago had a positive impact on me. Something along the lines of just stay calm, keep surfing and let it all blow over. I've very grateful for him saying this and it helped me when I was having a bit of a panic about the whole covid situation.

When I close the laptop lid and step outside, I realise everything is ok and there is a very big disconnect between the online world and reality.

I always think about a quote from the move The Thin Red Line:
There's only one thing a man can do - find something that's his, and make an island for himself.

excellent response and wholeheartedly agree with all of it. I have said similar albeit less articulately previously. The only thing I disagree with is your comment on short's statement to "stay calm". the statement is 100% true but the genuineness of how and when it was said is and was not. anti vaxxers and conspiracy nuts ( and i make a clear distinction here between the former and the covid vaccine hesitant or suspicious cautious etc) are anything but calm. when they tell you to be calm they are doing so from a position of fear and panic - that is the one thing along with several other traits that they share. Loss of control.
sticks out tits on a bull.

edit - i also broadly disagree with your sentiment that we unable to "verify for ourselves or be certain about 99%".
99% is pretty close to 100% so yeah we can never be 100% sure. But we can be pretty sure - again i have posted this previously.
time, review, light ,volume and robust critique allow this

seeds's picture
seeds's picture
seeds Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 11:31am
Roadkill's picture
Roadkill's picture
Roadkill Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 11:31am

My 16 year old son works in another Coles..he thinks the angry customers are hilarious...he can shrug it off and doesn't get concerned at all. Just cruises through the shifts.

Pretty good weekend money for school/uni kids and most of the time is a great place to work. My son loves weekend shifts..he wants to be a commercial hellicopter pilot...he has 12 hrs flying, can afford a lesson every 3/4 weeks. Pretty proud of him saving instead of wasting money like his mates do.

Roadkill's picture
Roadkill's picture
Roadkill Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 11:31am

My 16 year old son works in another Coles..he thinks the angry customers are hilarious...he can shrug it off and doesn't get concerned at all. Just cruises through the shifts.

Pretty good weekend money for school/uni kids and most of the time is a great place to work. My son loves weekend shifts..he wants to be a commercial hellicopter pilot...he has 12 hrs flying, can afford a lesson every 3/4 weeks. Pretty proud of him saving instead of wasting money like his mates do.

Johknee's picture
Johknee's picture
Johknee Thursday, 2 Dec 2021 at 11:42am
gsco wrote:

The renumeration and career progression structure of academia needs to reward research outcomes less and encourage teaching quality more.

There is no doubt you're a mathematician! I think you mean remuneration? ;)
Good post!