WSL Finals, Fiji
August 27th - September 4th

The swell has been created and is in the water on its way to Fiji.

Shortly after we posted Friday’s forecast, the frontal system that created it crossed Australia’s East Coast and moved into the Tasman Sea. 

Once the wind hit the water the swell was birthed and began growing under storm-force south-westerly winds pointing out towards the South Pacific. All Saturday, damaging winds in the wake of the front were reported up and down the NSW coast.

Sunday, however, dawned with a light breeze and by midday a complete absence of synoptic wind. Seabreezes filled the void.

The short evolution from storm force offshore wind to onshore seabreezes, speaks to how quickly the frontal system moved across the coastline and across the Tasman. This will have repercussions at more northern latitudes.

The brisk eastwards movement will limit size at Cloudbreak and also reduce the odds of outlier sets coming in above the forecast range, though without doing away with them completely.

While preparing this forecast the WSL issued a Yellow Alert, meaning competitors can expect a probable start within 24 hours.

So what can they expect tomorrow?

Size-wise there’s no real change to Friday’s forecast, with the day beginning around 5-6ft of mid-period swell under light east-southeast trade winds.

There’ll be a steady rise in wave size throughout the day, towards a peak of 6-8ft later in the afternoon - or perhaps early evening under the cover of darkness. Either way, the trend all day will be upwards.

The later it gets, the bigger it’ll be.

As has been mentioned since last Wednesday’s forecast, though the Momi Bay region can expect light trade winds they may be overcome by ‘rotor winds’ that will, if they eventuate, cause Cloudbreak’s wind vane to spin around the compass.

Rotor winds are essentially turbulent downstream winds caused by stronger trades south of Fiji crossing the inland mountain range. Momi Bay and Cloudbreak lie on the lee side of the mountain range where the rotor turbulence may happen.

High res wind chart for tomorrow 11am, showing strong south-east trades along Fiji's Coral Coast, then blowing 'around the corner' - meaning in a more southerly direction - as they approach Cloudbreak.

By 2pm, however, the same winds may swing east-northeast and variable.

It’s extremely hard to forecast their strength or direction, yet in a way that’s a moot point: If they arrive they’ll shift the needle away from offshore trades, and that’s all that needs to be known.

It appears the WSL has already prepared contingencies should the winds eventuate, flagging the possibility of running the Finals over two days or shifting it to Restaurants.

If they were to choose the latter - that is, shift it to Restaurants - there's still a chance shifting winds could play havoc. See the 2pm chart above noting that north-east is devil wind at Restaurants unless very light.

Postponing on Tuesday and resuming at Cloudbreak on Wednesday morning would see the swell back down to the 6ft+ range - the peak having already passed - and slowly tapering all day towards 4-5ft.

Though it may be a necessity, by running over two mornings they'd miss the largest part of the swell.

See you in the live chat tomorrow morning.

Forecast Friday 29/08/25:

Three days into the nine-day waiting period and the forecast blade is getting sharpened.

The system that creates Tuesday’s swell is currently passing over south-east Australia. The centre of it will cross the East Coast at roughly Bass Strait latitudes very late today, and by midday tomorrow it’ll begin working on the south and central Tasman Sea.

There’s also a more southern component from the same system, with a fetch that begins 1,000 kms due south of Hobart - see next image.

Note the two fetches aimed towards Fiji: the first off the NSW coast that will strike on Tuesday, and the second south of Hobart that will arrive later.

Since Wednesday’s forecast the timing and intensity of the system has slowed and also reduced in strength. The downstream effect of that will be a delay in arrival with forecast wave size coming in one rung down the ladder.

Tuesday is now forecast to dawn with sets to 5-6ft at Cloudbreak, building throughout the day to 6-8ft. The peak will be either very late in the day or during the early evening.

Worth noting that max comp time is 8 hours and min is 5.5. Sun sets at 6pm, so comp can go till approx 5pm. Therefore, the latest start time is approx 9am.

The expected direction is only degrees off what you might call a ‘classic’ Cloudbreak swell, however the period is sub-optimal being in the 12 second band and not getting above 13 seconds.

Shorter period swells feel less bottom drag as they move up reef passages, and this is partly the reason Restaurants has been mentioned. The other reason is the expected ‘westerly’ component of the swell, yet as mentioned earlier it’s a very fine distinction.

Perhaps the more compelling metric is the size - or lack of it. Should the data hold, Restaurants will begin the day at 3’ increasing to 3’-4’ by end of play.

Since Wednesday there hasn’t been much change with expected winds. Meaning, the broader pattern is for light-ish trades at Cloudbreak, however that’s not a region-wide pattern, with areas of brisk trades nearby, plus the threat of turbulent rotor winds in their wake - see next image.

This is something we’ll put under the microscope on Monday’s forecast.

High res modelling shows strong trades across Fiji's Coral Coast and rotor winds - downstream turbulence after wind passes over a mountain range - in the Momi Bay area.

All up, it’s not quite the picture we were seeing earlier in the week and, as there are further days in the waiting period, it’s worth checking the options.

On Wednesday morning, the first flush of swell - i.e the one that forms off the NSW coast - will be waning, replaced by the aforementioned southerly component created south of Hobart. The direction will edge more SSW, however wind speeds aren’t particularly strong so the period remains low.

The day should start at 5-6ft with a slow trend towards 4-5ft. By that time the Long Wave Trough will be firmly established, sending available systems up the Tasman pipe. There are at least two more pulses yet neither is particularly vigorous with size at Cloudbreak remaining in the 4-5ft range through Thursday, which is the end of the waiting period.

There are now three days until the next forecast.

Let's see what Monday brings.

Forecast Wednesday 27/08/25:

The forecasting family is together again.

After a short separation, GFS and ECMWF - the two global weather models - are in broad agreement about the coming Final’s Day swell. 

Before we get into the nuts and bolts of the swell a quick explanation is in order.

While GFS has barely wavered - showing a wind field with the head off the NSW coast and tail in Tasmanian latitudes - EC has struggled to consolidate it into one fetch. Even now, as it comes into line with GFS, EC is showing two peaks - one in the morning and another in the afternoon.

This shows that the swell - at least as EC sees it - is still disjointed. The swell off the NSW coast and the swell formed near Tasmania. So yes, there’s broad agreement between models, but look closely enough and you’ll still see differences.

More importantly, however, is the Long Wave Trough (LWT). Never mind consensus between wave models, the LWT has been staunch in its future positioning, showing a pathway up the Tasman pipe. The LWT is a powerful forecasting tool for locations such as Fiji (and anywhere facing south into a large ocean basin).

At six days out there’s no great need to lock onto size just yet, except to say we’re expecting sets in the 8ft ballpark. In the coming days we’ll begin sharpening that prediction.

The local winds are possibly more problematic.

First glance shows Cloudbreak to be in a cycle of lighter tradewinds next week. However, it’s very localised as the trades at Frigates, just 100kms to the south-east, will be approximately double the strength through all next week.

Also, high res modelling is showing even stronger winds - 20 - 25 knts from the south-east - between Cloudbreak and Frigates. If that wind belt were to shift towards Momi Bay it’ll bring with it chandeliers and clamps. We’ll keep a close eye on that modelling.

Another reason for increased scrutiny is the possibility of rotor winds forming off the back of strong trades interacting with the Nakauvadra Range. With thirty peaks over 1,000m it’s not insignificant and the downstream rotor winds can cause unexpected wind changes.

Again, we’ll monitor these closely.

See you Friday.

Forecast Monday 25/08/25:

On Friday’s forecast we noted there was three-way agreement between the global models: GFS, EC, and ACCESS for a decent swell to strike Fiji on Tuesday the 2nd September.

Yet any forecast twelve days out needs to be treated with caution as small atmospheric changes are multiplied across the forecast period. The larger the forecast period = the larger the error.

So it’s no surprises to see EC and ACCESS have wavered, both slowing the system down and hinting at a later peak, while GFS maintains the same forecast.

None of this is cause for concern, as, when it comes to Southern Ocean storm activity, GFS is the more reliable forecast model. It does, however, confirm the need for circumspection and flexibility in long range forecasting, so for now we’ll keep the dates free. Nothing is locked in.

Taking the wider view, the frontal progression that sparks the swell is still due to move underneath Australia through the week, clipping the south-east - Tassie and Victoria - early weekend. So the foundations are still in place

Also, FWIW the Long Wave Trough is predicted to move into a position where any Southern Ocean storm will move up the Tasman pipe towards Fiji.

Considering today’s curve ball from a contest organiser's POV: While the models are currently not locked onto a single date, they’re all pointing towards a swell within the contest waiting period.

See you Wednesday.

Forecast Friday 22/08/25

Wednesday’s forecast ended with reasons to doubt the swell due to hit Fiji late on Monday 1st.

In the 48 hrs since then we’ve had reasons to grow our confidence. The most obvious is that the two major global models - GFS and ECMWF - are now moving in lockstep, projecting a similar-sized swell to move up the Tasman pipe towards Fiji.

FWIW, the Australian model - ACCESS - is also forecasting a similar system.

The storm that creates the swell is forecast by all three models to form next Friday, so seven days from now, starting as a broad low positioned underneath Australia, meridional (north/south) in structure, sending swell to South Oz, Vicco, and Tassie, as the system moves east and tightens into a closed centre.

From early Saturday to midday Sunday a forecast wind field should extend from south of Tasmania up the Tasman Sea to a latitude equal to the NSW Mid North Coast, creating a mix of period and size in the swell heading towards Fiji.

First forming south of Tasmania late Friday, the swell consolidates through Saturday

The bulk of it forms in Cloudbreak’s middle-ground swell window, and winds will top out at gale force, though they’ll remain there for 24-36 hours.

GFS has it peaking at 8ft+. Though it’s worth considering the synoptic forecast for EC and ACCESS suggests slightly smaller surf.

We’ll massage the expected size over the coming week.

In any case, what they don’t suggest is an aerial shoot out.

A further reason to have confidence is a follow up swell also moving up the Tasman, a good sign the Long Wave Trough is directing these systems.

Though the swell is forecast to strike on Monday 1st, Tuesday is its forecast peak, meaning that’s the likeliest day to run - Day 7 out of a 10 day waiting period.

With a swell moving into the cross-hairs we’ll shortly begin sharpening up the secondary consideration: wind.

Despite being relatively late in the season, the trade-wind belt has remained robust through Fiji. On Monday we’ll take a closer look at the swell and the wind.

See you then.

Forecast Wednesday 20/08/25:

Since Monday’s forecast a few things have changed in the waiting period. There’s been no fundamental shift as on the whole it’s not a great outlook for Fiji. But then again, Finals Day is just that - one day.

With the Southern Ocean firing its energy at targets further east, all the WSL needs is one stray volley to deviate and head up the Tasman Sea towards Fiji. Eight hours of wayward energy will do it.

The pre-comp swells mentioned on Monday are both on track to arrive, the first late Thursday (6ft+) and the second late Saturday (4-6ft). There’ll then be a slow taper over Sunday and Monday until the forecast flatlines for seven straight days - six of those being in the waiting period.

The cause of this is a large high pressure system that moves across the southern Tasman and New Zealand, angling storm systems to the south so the swell they produce heads away from the tropics - see next image.

Note swell under Australia heading towards the ice shelf while swell east of New Zealand heads across the South Pacific.

When the high moves east, a vigorous low pressure system is forecast to form off the NSW East Coast with a ridge feeding into a trough line in the Tasman. 

What does that mean..?

Good news for East Coast surfers - including Tassie East Coast - but not so the last remaining WSL surfers waiting in Fiji, as, once again, the energy in the Tasman will be directed away from them and towards Australia - see next image.

The swell heads the wrong way down the Tasman pipe - though East Coast surfers will benefit.

As is often the case, the Tasman Low will precede a vigorous frontal progression, which is the kind of talk Cloudbreak diehards like.

The first phase will see a low deepen over south-east Australia dragging polar air towards the mainland - possibly good news for the snow fields. However, as the system breaches the East Coast the westerly component will again see the swell angled away from Fiji.

Fortunately it’s a complex and multi-pronged system, and the elongations that drag cool air from far southern latitudes will also establish a well-aimed fetch up the Tasman. It’s not overly strong nor long-lasting, which’ll put a ceiling on size, but it forms right in Cloudbreak’s sweet spot.

Note the wind field south of Tasmania angled north-east towards Fiji.

At present, the swell is forecast to hit late on Monday 1st, building to a peak late on Tuesday 2nd, however, there are many contingencies attached to this one.

It’s at the very end of the forecast period so accuracy is questionable, and it forms on the back of a dynamic system. There’s a lot of weather between now and then, and small adjustments will have big bearings on the outcome.

Nevertheless in the absence of any other swell, this is the one we’ll be watching.

See you all on Friday.

Forecast Monday 18/08/25:

Over the last fortnight, Fiji has gone through a quiet spell with few waves of note on the south-west facing reefs. It's not for a lack of action in the Southern Ocean - Victoria and Tahiti, for instance, have been getting bombarded by Southern Ocean storms - but it's got everything to do with alignment.

Cloudbreak only has one real swell window and it opens up to the south-west, across the Coral Sea, Tasman Sea, and beyond that the Southern Ocean. Any storm that's going to create swell will have to be angling up the Tasman towards Fiji.

The current set up has Southern Ocean storms pushing swells north-east towards South Australia and Victoria, while the storms in Fiji's swell window have been pushing swell south-east towards the ice shelf - see the next image for an example.

Keen weather watchers would understand this as a classic Long Wave Trough scenario - click here for an explanation.

What this means is that the lead up to Finals Day will see few warm up waves on the reefs. There are, however, some exceptions.

Tomorrow a low centred near NZ's southern tip will deepen as it moves up the west coast, creating a south-southwest swell of moderate period. This will hit late on the 21st in the 6-8ft range.

That swell will be followed by a longer period swell off the storm shown in the image above. It's poorly aligned for Cloudbreak yet vigorous enough to push sideband energy up the Tasman where it'll deliver inconsistent 6ft waves hitting late on the 23rd.

Following that, the reefs will go quiet.

A series of fronts will pass across southern Australia, yet as they approach the Tasman they're all forecast to fall away, fading in strength and sending any available swell south-east, away from the tropics.

So quiet will Fiji be during this period that on the 27th - the first day of the waiting period - the predominant swell is forecast to be south-east. A short period trade-swell kicked up by the south-east trade-winds.

The first four days of the waiting period - from Wednesday 27th to Saturday 30th - will see very small waves. Only small, inconsistent long period energy will be able to escape the tractor beam that's pulling it away from Cloudbreak.

The back half of the waiting period is still too far out to have much trust in the forecast though there are hints of southerly energy developing in the Tasman. At this stage it looks slightly disjointed though we'll keep an eye on any changes.

See you all on Wednesday.