Winter storms primed to slam the SW of the state early next week

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

Western Australia Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri July 29th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Strong rebuild Fri with XL surf Sat and onshore winds
  • Strong, easing swells Sun with N'ly to NW'ly winds likely
  • Brief respite Mon before multiple strong winter storms smash the SW of the state
  • Huge surf and onshore winds Tues/Wed
  • Surf slowly ramping down Thurs-Sat but with lingering onshore flow
  • More settled conditions likely into following week


Plenty of swell energy since the last f/cast notes with yesterday seeing clean 8ft surf in the SW corner, grading smaller 3ft in Mandurah and 2-3ft in Perth. Conditions deteriorated during the a’noon as winds swung N then fresh NW as a front approached.

Today the onshore pattern has become more entrenched with fresh W to W/SW winds and plenty of size still, although only the most protected winter spots were surfable.

This weekend and next week (Jul 29 - Aug5)

No great change to the weekend f/casts with XL surf through Sat in the 12-15ft range between the Capes, with smaller 3-5ft surf in Mandurah and 3ft surf in Perth, only surfable at protected locations as onshore winds continue to blow strongly. 

Sunday looks less favourable wind-wise now with an onshore NW to W flow expected to continue as high pressure lingers off the Gascoyne Coast. There’ll be plenty of leftover size in the 8ft range between the Capes, smaller 3ft in Mandurah and 2-3ft in Perth but with onshore winds through the day, although they will tend more N’ly through the a’noon as the high moves inland.

Into next week and there’s only a brief window possible of N’ly winds Mon morning as another major front and low approaches, having steamed towards WA from Heard Island over the weekend. Expect winds to tend NW and freshen through the day with size rapidly building into the 8-10ft range between the Cape’s smaller 4ft in Mandurah and 3ft in Perth.

Tues and Wed will be a write-off except for the most sheltered winter Bays as a monster storm slams into WA (see below). Gales hit Tues as one system hits the coast up to the Gascoyne, with surf in the 12-15ft range at exposed coastlines, smaller 4-6ft in Mandurah and 4ft in Perth. This significant winter storm is backed up by a secondary system with further gales to storm force winds Wed , driving surf into the XXL range, likely in the 15-20ft range between the Capes and 6ft+ in Mandurah, 4ft+ in Perth. 

Size ramps down steadily through Thurs into Sat but with no let-up in the onshore flow, although we’ll see how the wind outlook shapes up on Mon.

Further out another deep low with severe gales passes under the state with a broad area of seas in excess of 20ft later next week into the weekend. This storm passes well to the south of the state and high pressure moving in behind the storm should see more settled conditions establish early week of 8/8.

Check back Mon for a full update and have a great weekend!