Large swell to end the week, best in protected spots

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Western Australia Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 11th January)

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Best Days: Friday morning protected spots, Saturday morning, Tuesday morning

Recap

A good pulse of SW groundswell yesterday to 5-6ft in the South West and 1-2ft further north along with favourable morning winds.

Today the swell has eased back to 3-5ft in the South West and 1ft in Perth with 1-2ft sets around Mandurah, again with morning offshore winds.

This week and weekend (Jan 12 - 15)

The mid-latitude low responsible for Friday's W/SW swell has formed and wind speeds are a touch weaker than forecast on Monday. Satellite observations have picked up a fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds, with a couple of 50kt barbs but we're mainly due to see winds stay below that storm-force threshold.

We'll still see a large groundswell generated, with it due to arrive during the early hours of Friday morning peaking around 10ft in the South West and 3ft on the sets around Perth.

A slight drop in size is expected into the afternoon but overnight it'll drop away more considerably, with easing from 4-6ft Saturday morning in the South West and 1-2ft in Perth.

Winds tomorrow will be poor with a strong SW'ly and late increase in mid-period SW swell, while Friday we're looking at S/SE winds in the South West (SE up in Perth) so protected locations will be best. Saturday will be much cleaner as the swell eases with an E/NE offshore before sea breezes kick in.

Sunday looks average with small to tiny surf early, ahead of a mid-period in W/SW swell through the afternoon but with S/SW winds.

Next week onwards (Jan 16 onwards)

As talked about last update, another broader but weaker low forecast to form north-east of Heard Island tomorrow, and project a slow moving fetch of W/SW gales through our western swell window again.

The slow moving nature of the low will help produce a moderate to large W/SW groundswell for Monday, building to 5-6ft+ in the South West and easing off slowly from 6ft or so Tuesday.

Perth should see good 2ft waves through Monday and Tuesday.

Conditions on Monday are an issue with a S'ly tending S/SW breeze, while Tuesday should see a morning SE'ly. We'll have another look at this Friday.

Comments

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 12 Jan 2017 at 7:49am

Couple more 50kt barbs showing on satellite passes overnight..

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 13 Jan 2017 at 7:52am

Classic spike in swell often associated with captured fetches..