Victorian Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday May 5th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Decent groundswell building Tuesday, with clean conditions on the Surf Coast
• Large swell building Wednesday, peaking late and/or early Thursday, with favourable morning winds both days. Fun surf at protected spots east of Melbourne
• Easing but still strong surf Fri/Sat with light winds
• Smaller Sun but with clean conditions under light winds
• Small waves at exposed beaches for much of next week
• Next swell pattern due late next weekend of early in the following week

Recap

Saturday offered fun waves with a new groundswell producing 3ft sets west of Melbourne and 4-5ft sets to the east, with generally clean conditions. Size eased through Sunday and the downwards trend has continued into this morning, with tiny residual energy on offer at most spots (though still a few small waves east of Melbourne). However a new swell is starting to build across the region with fun small waves now on offer across the Surf Coast. 

New swell lines showing across the Bellarine this afternoon

This week (May 6 - 9)

We’ve got some great waves coming up over the coming days.

A strong frontal progression through the Bight is generating back-to-back groundswells that are already showing now across the region. It’s a classic wintereqsue pattern too with the fronts pushing nice and close to the coast, resulting in freshening NW winds for Tuesday that’ll eventually veer W’ly through Wednesday before easing Thursday. This means we’ve got an extended run of great waves for the Surf Coast.

Wave heights will continue to build on Tuesday and should lift from 3ft to 3-4ft as the day wears on, before the peak of the swell arrives on Wednesday afternoon, building morning wave heights from 4-5ft up into the 6ft+ range at the Surf Coast swell magnets, easing from a similar size on Thursday. 

East of Melbourne can add another couple of feet on these size projections, however with the expected NW tending W’ly flow, we’re really only interested in sheltered spots like Western Port, and current thinking is that Tuesday morning - and potentially even the afternoon - may be a little undersized. Wednesday and Thursday are your best options for this stretch (and other sheltered coasts east of Melbourne). 

West of Melbourne should remain clean all day Tuesday, and Wednesday morning is likely to offer a reasonable spell of pre-frontal NW thru’ W/NW winds, ahead of a W’ly trend from mid-late morning onwards. It shouldn't be too strong though so the afternoon will have workable optoins at many spots.

By Thursday we’ll see the synoptic flow ease back and conditions improve, as localised effects across the Surf Coast swing the wind back to an early W/NW. Eslewhere, expect wind affected but improving surf conditions.

The other feature of this swell worth discussing is the consistency. I’m expecting a slightly higher wave count (not personally, of course!) than normal due to the close range nature of the storm track, and also the overlapping swell trains that will be borne from a multitude of swell sources contained within this frontal conveyor belt. 

Although surf size will ease further on Friday, we’re still looking at decent 3-4ft sets across the Surf Coast under light variable (tending offshore) winds, which should produce very nice waves at most spots. East of Melbourne will start to improve across the open beaches - though size may still be overpowering things - however protected locations will start to become much smaller and less reliable.

This weekend (May 10 - 11)

Despite the focus on this week’s impressive swell event, we’ve got some nice waves due this weekend too.

A weak high pressure ridge across the state will maintain light winds both days, keeping conditions nice and clean.

As for surf, a poorly aligned front well below the continent mid-week (see below) will generate a W/NW swell through the Southern Ocean that should bend back into Bass Strait, maintaining 3-4ft sets west of Melbourne and 4-6ft sets east of Melbourne. HOwever, the poor alignment of this fetch to the Victorian coast means that set waves will be quite inconsistent at times (especially compared to Wed/Thurs).

Similar conditions are expected on Sunday but with a little less size as this swell throttles back.

Next week (May 12 onwards)

The broadscale storm track will quieten down from around Friday onwards, with a blocking high in the Southern Ocean steering swell systems generally away from our primary swell window.

As such, most of next week is looking small throughout Victoria - though early indications are for light winds under a high pressure system, which should favour exposed coasts with fun waves (banks pending, of course). 

Longer term has the storm track redeveloping later in the week, which may lead to a more pronounced increase in surf size from next Sunday (or thereabouts) into the following week.

See you Wednesday!