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Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday June 14th)

Best Days: Today beaches, Wednesday and Thursday next week exposed beaches

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Easing swell over the coming days with gusty, easing E/SE-E winds tomorrow AM, fresh SE into the PM
  • Strengthening S tending S/SW winds Sun
  • Sneaky SE groundswell for Mon AM, easing
  • Fresh S'ly winds Mon, more variable from Phillip Island and further east
  • Small Tue with moderate S/SW winds
  • Inconsistent small mid-period W swell Wed with E/NE-NE winds
  • Similar winds and swell likely Thu
  • Moderate sized W/SW groundswell Fri with variable tending fresh S winds


Yesterday got better and better across the Surf Coast with a fresh pulse of mid-period S/SW swell pulsing to 4-5ft as variable winds ironed out the morning lump, providing cleaner, glassy waves into the afternoon and evening.

Locations to the east weren’t overly great with this morning being much better with a dropping swell and easing 4-5ft sets, while the Surf Coast was still providing 4ft sets under a light offshore breeze (these have since shifted more NNE and increased).

Expect winds to shift more east and strengthen through the late afternoon/evening as the swell continues to ease.

Improving surf yesterday afternoon

This weekend and next week (Jun 14 - 21)

I hope you’ve made the most of the last two days as we’ve got an average outlook for the coming days thanks to a broad, strengthening low in the southern Tasman Sea, retrograding back to the west towards us over the weekend.

This will bring strong E/SE winds this evening, weakening slowly through tomorrow, back to moderate to fresh E/SE-E, then shifting SE into the afternoon.

We’ll be looking at easing levels of swell across both regions and some localised SE windswell in the mix for the Surf Coast.

Come Sunday, winds will shift more S’ly and strengthen, tending S/SW into the afternoon and evening as the low axis pushes up past the Tasmanian Coast.

This will generate some localised S’ly windswell, easing Monday as winds remain fresh S’ly across most locations, though variable from about Phillip Island east.

Also in the mix on Monday morning should be some SE groundswell from the low in the Tasman Sea, sneaking through Bass Strait to selected locations. It’ll be for the savvy and tricky to work with the local winds.

Looking at the rest of the week, and weaker, moderate S/SW breezes are due into Tuesday but with small, background levels of W/SW groundswell that will offer no major size. There’s an outside chance for early W winds on the Surf Coast but we’ll review this Monday.

Wednesday looks to offer cleaner waves on the beaches as winds shift back to the E/NE-NE though the models diverge a little regarding this wind outlook for the middle of the week.

If offshore, the exposed beaches east of Melbourne should offer 3ft+ sets.

Looking at the end of the week, we’ve got a healthy frontal system, pushing up towards Western Australia through the early stages of the week, but how it evolves once it moves across the country is up for grabs.

EC has it forming into a mid-latitude low across South Australia, then weakening resulting in S winds as the swell arrives late week. We’ll have to have another look at this Monday. Have a great weekend and get stuck in this morning!


jshe35's picture
jshe35's picture
jshe35 Friday, 14 Jun 2024 at 12:07pm

Any reason Phillip Island daily report photos now rarely put up ?

Joshy2000's picture
Joshy2000's picture
Joshy2000 Friday, 14 Jun 2024 at 12:37pm

I reckon Peninsula and Island are now done by same reporter.

Thanos S's picture
Thanos S's picture
Thanos S Saturday, 15 Jun 2024 at 6:53pm

Dunno, But one thing I noticed - as on a surfing holiday vicco stay - vacay atm and been alternating coasts..........the PI forecasts are a touch over rated, and the surf coast forecasts are a little under rated.
Though that may have something to do with wind negatively impacting reality quicker on PI than SC.

Weatherman's picture
Weatherman's picture
Weatherman Friday, 14 Jun 2024 at 9:59pm

Unfortunately, another below average winter forecast for the Surf Coast. Those east coast lows nearly always give us poor conditions. Seems to happen quite often in June from memory.

WarriSymbol's picture
WarriSymbol's picture
WarriSymbol Saturday, 15 Jun 2024 at 11:52am

On the cam... 11.49am today.
Is there a pot of Huey gold at the end of that Magiclands rainbow?

Tubbabird's picture
Tubbabird's picture
Tubbabird Monday, 17 Jun 2024 at 1:02pm

Is the surf that bad it’s not worth reporting on anymore?

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek Monday, 17 Jun 2024 at 1:58pm

It's 8-10ft in NSW today, I wouldn't be wasting my time writing forecasting notes for a close to flat ocean right now if I was Craig either lol

Tubbabird's picture
Tubbabird's picture
Tubbabird Monday, 17 Jun 2024 at 3:22pm

hahah I wasn't joking, everywhere looks to be pumping right now except for Vic