Tricky outlook for the coming days, with large surf likely mid-late next week

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday April 3rd)

Best Days: Today Surf Coast, tomorrow morning for the keen both regions, Monday Surf Coast, Tuesday morning Surf Coast

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Moderate sized mid-period SW swell for tomorrow, with a slightly stronger pulse Fri AM, easing
  • Variable winds tomorrow AM, tending mod-fresh S/SE by later AM
  • Mod-fresh E/SE-SE winds Fri
  • Moderate + sized SW groundswell building Sat, peaking in the PM with gusty E/SE winds
  • Easing swell Sun with mod-fresh S tending SW winds
  • Easing swell Mon with NW-N/NW winds, shifting W/SW late
  • Moderate + sized mid-period SW swell Tue with W/NW winds, shifting strong S/SW into the PM
  • Large surf mid-late next week and weekend


The swell bottomed into yesterday morning with clean conditions across the Surf Coast along with stray 1-2ft sets on the magnets.

Today we've got a lift in windswell and better mid-period swell with clean conditions across the Surf Coast along with sets to 3ft+ on the magnets, poor and onshore to the east. Winds are due to only go light onshore this afternoon, creating decent conditions most of the day for the keen.

This week and next (Apr 4 - 12)

Today's building mid-period swell is due to be bolstered by a reinforcing pulse of slightly better energy tomorrow morning with 3ft to occasionally 4ft sets continuing across the Surf Coast along with 4-5ft+ sets to the east.

Winds look a bit better than expected on Monday, with variable breezes now due early, shifting S/SE by late morning and freshening. It won't be perfect and likely lumpy, but doable.

Into Friday, our stronger pulse of mid-period SW swell is due, generated by a fetch of near gale-force W/NW winds moving on top of the activity linked to the current building swell.

This should come in more at 4ft on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft to the east Friday morning, easing a little into the afternoon. Unfortunately moderate to fresh E/SE-SE winds are still forecast for Friday, creating average to poor conditions.

Looking at the weekend, and the main issue are the local winds.

A deepening trough sliding down the East Coast will bring gusty E/SE winds on Saturday, swinging S'th and then SW on Sunday, while remaining moderate to fresh.

This will spoil a good SW groundswell that's due to fill in Saturday, generated by a healthy polar low forming under the country today and tomorrow. Pre-frontal gale to severe-gale W/NW winds will be followed by a secondary fetch of stronger severe-gale W/NW winds. This will produce a moderate +sized SW groundswell for Saturday. Building sets to 4-5ft are due across the Surf Coast, 6ft+ to the east but with those poor winds, easing Sunday.

Monday looks the pick of this whole period, as winds tip back to the NW-N/NW through the morning ahead of an approaching trough, along with easing levels of mid-period SW swell energy from 2-3ft on the Surf Coast, 4ft to the east.

Now, behind this trough, we're looking at some significant Southern Ocean storm activity firing up in our south-western and southern swell windows, under the influence of a strong, stalling node of the Long Wave Trough to our east.

This will result in a good run of large surf through the middle to end of next week and with hopefully winds from the western quadrant, owing to the node sitting just east of us.

Ahead of this though, an initial pulse of good sized SW swell is likely Tuesday with favourable winds ahead of a strong S/SW change.

We'll have a closer look at this on Friday though.