Great weekend, generally average next week

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday January 26th)

Best Days: Tomorrow Surf Coast, Sunday morning Surf Coast, Monday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Building W/SW swell energy today with a strong SW change into the PM
  • Moderate sized W/SW groundswell tomorrow with mod-fresh W/NW winds, shifting W/SW into the PM
  • Moderate sized W/SW swell easing Sun with moderate W/NW winds, tending W/SW late AM and then fresh S
  • Easing swell Mon with N/NW winds to the west, N/NE to the east ahead of a PM S'ly change
  • New small-moderate sized W/SW swell Tue, with a moderate sized swell for Wed PM and Thu
  • Persistent S winds Tue-Fri


Clean conditions but tiny surf across the Surf Coast yesterday, while the windswell to the east cleaned up into the afternoon as winds tended variable from the north.

This morning conditions are clean again to the west with a weak W/SW windswell in the water. Some better mid-period energy is due to build into the afternoon but with a strong SW change.

This weekend and next week (Jan 27 – Feb 2)

Today's building W/SW energy is a weak mix of swell generated by the remnants of a strong frontal system that pushed up and under Western Australia earlier in the week.

The groundswell from this front came in strong and on forecast across Western Australia, with it now on the way towards our region, arriving early tomorrow morning and peaking through the day.

Good 3-4ft waves are due on the Surf Coast (more consistent in that upper range across the magnets), 6ft+ to the east.

The easing trend will be slowed into Sunday thanks to a secondary frontal system sliding in from the west tomorrow, maintaining 3-4ft sets on the Surf Coast through the morning, 6ft to the east.

Monday will see a more noticeable easing trend from 2ft to possibly 3ft on the Surf Coast and 4ft+ to the east.

Looking at the local winds and the Surf Coast will be best tomorrow with a moderate to fresh W/NW offshore during the morning, shifting W/SW into the early afternoon, only flirting from the SW for periods. This should provide a full day of fun waves.

Sunday morning should see morning W/NW winds, shifting W/SW later morning and then fresher S'ly into the afternoon.

Monday now looks better for both locations with light N/NW winds on the Surf Coast, N/NE to the east ahead of a trough and S'ly change early afternoon.

As touched on in Wednesday's update, S'ly winds will persist into Tuesday (freshening into the afternoon) along with some fun, reinforcing mid-period W/SW swell, generated by a frontal system generating a fetch of W/NW winds under Western Australia on the weekend.

These winds look to persist on Wednesday as some slightly better W/SW energy arrives, peaking Thursday. The source will be a continued stream of W'ly winds passing under the country thanks to a train of embedded fronts.

The Surf Coast looks to reach 3ft+ into Wednesday afternoon but more so Thursday though winds look to persist out of the S'th both Thursday and Friday as the swell eases.

There's a chance the wind outlook could improve thanks to the unpredictability of the tropical activity to our north but check back here early next week for the latest.

Therefore make the most of the weekend and Monday morning with the swell and favourable conditions. Have a great weekend!


JB1's picture
JB1's picture
JB1 Friday, 26 Jan 2024 at 3:44pm

Beware fun day cycle race on the surf coast tomorrow... Many thousands of push bikes along the coast roads. Will be slow going anywhere

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 26 Jan 2024 at 4:06pm

Good heads up.

Mexican's picture
Mexican's picture
Mexican Friday, 26 Jan 2024 at 7:45pm

Races both day’s through the area. Women’s Saturday, men’s Sunday.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Friday, 26 Jan 2024 at 7:56pm

Keeps us on our toes - the amazing race, except just to get out and have a surf. Which way to go? Which way will be blocked?

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Sunday, 28 Jan 2024 at 8:09pm

tomorrow gone to shit?