Tricky week of winds, best late week

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday September 25th)

Best Days: Keen surfers mid-late AM to early PM tomorrow, Thursday afternoon ahead of late sea breezes exposed beaches, Friday morning, Saturday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Inconsistent background W/SW groundswell for today and tomorrow (peaking later tomorrow PM), easing Wed
  • Light-mod S winds early tomorrow, tending variable ahead of S/SE sea breezes
  • Mod-fresh W/SW-SW winds Wed (likely W/NW early Surf Coast), increasing into the PM
  • Low point in swell Thu AM, with some building mid-period SW swell into the PM
  • NW tending variable then late SE winds Thu
  • Inconsistent W/SW groundswell peaking Fri with N/NW tending W/NW winds ahead of a gusty S/SW change into the PM
  • Easing W/SW groundswell Sat with a SW component with N tending variable winds (likely locally offshore)
  • Smaller Sun with NW tending SW winds


A fun weekend of surf though small on the Surf Coast and best to the east for the most size. This morning we’ve reached a low point in energy with clean conditions on the exposed beaches for the keen, but go soon as a trough will bring a S/SW change by mid-late morning (it's just hit).

This week and weekend (Sep 26 - Oct 1)

It’s great to be back in the saddle after a couple of weeks offline, and looking at the week ahead, tomorrow looks dicey but doable for the keen as today’s trough clears to the east. This will see early, light to moderate S’ly winds easing and tending variable through the morning, creating improving conditions.

Swell wise, a small mix of background W/SW groundswell (strongest later arvo) should provide inconsistent 2ft waves on the Surf Coast with 3ft to occasionally 4ft sets to the east, increasing a little through the afternoon. S/SE sea breezes will kick in after lunch so the window looks to be from mid-late morning through early afternoon.

Wednesday should see easing surf from 2ft and 3-4ft respectively and winds look tricky as another trough slips through, bringing generally moderate to fresh W/SW-SW winds that’ll strengthen through the day. The Surf Coast is likely to see early W/NW winds but it’s not worth chasing.

Into the end of the week we’ve got some better surf potential as a new, moderate sized W/SW groundswell fills in under more favourable winds.

The source of the groundswell is a little distant to be ideal, though a good fetch of gale to severe-gale W/NW winds that are currently to the north-east of the Heard Island region, will track east-southeast today before breaking down this evening.

Trailing activity moving under the country may slow the easing trend on the backside of the swell into the weekend while tending more SW in direction but we’ll have a clearer idea on this through the week.

The arrival of the W/SW groundswell looks to be Thursday evening, with some small mid-period swell possibly showing through the afternoon Thursday. Morning W/NW winds look to go variable and then SE later.

The groundswell should peak Friday with inconsistent 3ft to occasionally 4ft sets are due on the Surf Coast magnets with 4-5ft+ waves to the east and winds look great in the morning, N/NW shifting W/NW ahead of a trough and afternoon S/SW change.

The trough will clear quickly to the east on Saturday allowing winds to shift back to the N’th, likely locally offshore through the morning and possibly variable through the afternoon along with easing sets from 3ft+ on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft to the east.

Sunday will be smaller and early NW winds will shift SW again as another trough slides through.

Looking at next week and some new W/SW groundswell is likely but to no major size due to the frontal progression generating it being aimed up and into Western Australia. We’ll have a closer look at this on Wednesday though.


Tubbabird's picture
Tubbabird's picture
Tubbabird Monday, 25 Sep 2023 at 12:20pm

welcome back Craigos! We missed you

Seabiscuit's picture
Seabiscuit's picture
Seabiscuit Monday, 25 Sep 2023 at 1:02pm

Yep - well said Tubby.

Been a long few weeks without Craigos' thrice-weekly sermons.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 25 Sep 2023 at 1:38pm


dbut's picture
dbut's picture
dbut Monday, 25 Sep 2023 at 5:09pm

“Limestone based neoprene is marketed as an eco-friendly alternative to petrochemical neoprene” says Nelson, “Which it clearly isn’t: Iimestone is a finite resource quarried out of the earth, then heated in furnaces until it melts to make chloroprene, itself widely classified as both toxic and carcinogenic. Doesn’t sound very eco, does it? The fact that limestone neoprene is subject to such greenwashing is one of the real headwinds to change in the industry. Some of the scientists we talked to in making the film have said if anything, limestone-based chloroprene is even worse than petrochemical. People are being duped. Either way, whenever you buy a wetsuit made of neoprene, limestone or petrochemical based, you’re putting money into Denka.”

Any new product brought into this world is not sustainable, use your shit till it's no longer serviceable, get it repaired (awesome ladies on baines cres torquay do a great job for cheap), and look after it; dont just buy something because it claims to be sustianble the best thing you can do is reduce, reuse, recycle and on that note buy your wetsuits and surfboards second hand.'s picture's picture Tuesday, 26 Sep 2023 at 11:47am

have always bought second hand boards and rode them into the dirt..I like to think it helps ha

HKFC's picture
HKFC's picture
HKFC Tuesday, 26 Sep 2023 at 4:08pm

Praise Be to Craigos