Fun weekend of surf

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 24th June)

Best Days: Later today Surf Coast, tomorow, Sunday morning Surf Coast, keen surfers early Monday Surf Coast, beaches Tuesday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Building mix of moderate sized, mid-period and W/SW groundswell later today, peaking tomorrow with a reinforcing pulse for Sun
  • Fresh to strong N/NW-NW tomorrow, fresh W/NW tending W/SW early PM Sun
  • Easing mix of swells Mon with mod-fresh SW winds (likely W'ly early on the Surf Coast)
  • Easing small swell with fresh N-N/NE winds Tue
  • Small, weak W/SW swell building Wed PM with strong N winds
  • Average, localised S/SW swell building later Thu, peaking Fri with S/SW winds


Small to tiny waves across the Surf Coast yesterday, decent to the east most of the day with 2-3ft of swell.

Today conditions are a little bumpier to the east but still surfable and to 3ft, while the Surf Coast is a slow, clean 1-2ft. We should see some new, mid-period and long-range groundswell building later but the weekend provides more consistency and reliable surf.

This weekend and next week (Jun 25 -  Jul 1)

Looking at the current synoptic setup and we've got a pair of mid-latitude fronts pushing in from the west, generating fetches of strong to near gale-force W/SW winds in our western swell window.

These fronts are generating moderate sized pulses of mid-period W/SW swell that should fill in tomorrow and Sunday and will be the most dominant over the weekend. There'll be an inconsistent, long-period signal from later today through tomorrow and Sunday morning, generated by the earlier stages of the progression. That being a strong slow moving low in the southern Indian Ocean earlier this week.

Size wise we should see fairly consistent surf in the 4ft range across the Surf Coast, 6ft+ to the east, while the long-range energy may provide the rare bigger set on the Surf Coast magnets.

Conditions will be great for the Surf Coast tomorrow with a fresh to strong NW breeze, shifting N/NW at times. Sunday will be best through the morning with a fresh W/NW offshore ahead of a W/SW change early afternoon with a shallow change.

The forecast weak low moving through Sunday now isn't expected, with no significant increase in localised swell into the afternoon, with easing surf from 3ft to possibly 4ft on the Surf Coast Monday morning, 4-6ft to the east. Conditions won't be as clean and lined up though with SW winds out to sea, possibly tipping W'ly early across the Surf Coast.

Tuesday will become cleaner on the beaches as winds swing back to the N-N/NE ahead of an approaching frontal system but size wise, the Surf Coast will be fading from 2ft with 3-4ft sets to the east.

Looking at the outlook for later next week and a weak frontal system moving in from the west is due to generate some weak W/SW swell for Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning, but beyond this we're likely to see a strengthening polar front generating a poor, localised increase in stormy swell Friday. The models diverge on the strength and size so we'll review this Monday. Have a great weekend!


Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Saturday, 25 Jun 2022 at 10:34am

Looks great out there today, hope everyone's having fun and getting a few.

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok Saturday, 25 Jun 2022 at 1:21pm

Great morning! Plenty of north in the wind kept a few more options open than the SC reefs. A welcomed relief :)

Wills's picture
Wills's picture
Wills Saturday, 25 Jun 2022 at 5:56pm

pleasantly surprised by the lack of crowds

Weatherman's picture
Weatherman's picture
Weatherman Saturday, 25 Jun 2022 at 6:34pm

Finally a full day of quality waves. A bit inconsistent, but as mentioned, not too crowded for how good it was.

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref Saturday, 25 Jun 2022 at 6:45pm

Pumped all day. Perfect winter’s day of surfing.

But a mate copped a rogue board to the head. Blacked out in the water, needed a trip to hospital and some stitches but is mainly okay now.

Was a kid who probably was out of her depth and bailed her board at a busyish reef.

Can’t get angry at a kid but I think if you’re out there as a parent with your kid you need to be confident they can handle themselves (eg not bailing boards).

Board copped my mate square in the back of the head. Really loud bang. Sounded awful.

The green wall's picture
The green wall's picture
The green wall Saturday, 25 Jun 2022 at 8:13pm

Hey Craig, the winki surfcam replays from today (sat 25th) don't seem to be working. Any idea why?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Sunday, 26 Jun 2022 at 8:52am

Should be back up soon, looked like the server had an issue.