One day to focus on

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 24th March)

Best Days: Friday (beaches into the afternoon), Saturday morning for the keen on the Surf Coast

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Mid-period W/SW swell filling in Fri with NW tending N/NW and then locally offshore winds, easing Sat with morning NW winds
  • Nothing major until possibly Easter LWE


A slow start to yesterday with favourable winds for the beaches, deteriorating as some new swell built through the day.

Today winds are varying and swinging onshore with a dropping low to our east, generating a localised SE windswell that's more evident than any background swell. Beaches to the east were OK for a quick grovel.

This week and next (Mar 25 - Apr 2)

Tomorrow looks to be another lay day, but come Friday a new W/SW swell and favourable winds should open up more options for a surf across the state.

A weak front moving in tomorrow will bring moderate to fresh W tending W/SW-SW winds but no swell is due until the afternoon and it'll only be localised, weak windswell.

Our slightly better, though still small and weak, mid-period W/SW swell for Friday is on track, generated by the earlier stages of the front, which was a mid-latitude low forming south of Western Australia Monday.

A weak, slim fetch of strong W'ly winds have and are still being projected through our western swell window, with the swell due to offer 2ft+ waves on the Surf Coast (3ft sets magnets), 4ft+ or so to the east.

Winds will be NW early, shifting N/NW through the morning and likely holding offshore from the W/NW on the Surf Coast into the late afternoon, with variable E/NE-NE winds to the east. With this the beaches to the east will become fun from early-mid afternoon.

Saturday looks average with freshening NW tending SW winds and a drop in swell from Friday, easing from 2ft max on the Surf Coast.

Sunday isn't any better with a weaker mix of background swells to 1-2ft max on the Surf Coast along with W/NW tending S/SW winds, similar Monday but even smaller.

As touched on the last couple of updates, there's still nothing significant on the cards for early-mid next week, and the strengthening frontal activity firing up south-west of Western Australia under the influence of the Long Wave Trough looks to stall in our far swell window resulting in no real decent swell of size or power at all next week.

When will the activity push further east? It could happen into the Easter Long Weekend, but more on this in the coming updates.


drchris's picture
drchris's picture
drchris Wednesday, 24 Mar 2021 at 2:21pm

Craig , heard talk about aus climate (re nsw qld drought etc) occurring in 30-40 year cycles this week. Fact or fiction? I’ve been in the water game for 35 odd years and don’t recall an extended poor surf run like this one on the surf coast for that time , hope it’s not the new cycle of norm.

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 Wednesday, 24 Mar 2021 at 3:22pm

Imagine easterlies became the prevailing wind direction on the surf coast for 30 years. They'd need to build a wave pool down there to satisfy the population where everyone is now a surfer.

Maybe all the new folk moving into Torquay can petition to get one built along with everything else they are asking for down there.

Vunerable's picture
Vunerable's picture
Vunerable Wednesday, 24 Mar 2021 at 10:35pm

I read a science article stating magnetic North is moving west at an increasing rate?Maybe our Autumn Northerlies have altered course to the East.
Bring on Winter Westerlies or will it be more North? I try to avoid looking at the beach when it onshore.I have a complex called offshore dependant surfer syndrome.

adam12's picture
adam12's picture
adam12 Wednesday, 24 Mar 2021 at 11:23pm

The theory is that it's all to do with the "Norris Event" or "Norris Parabolic Syndrome".
Apparently every time Chuck Norris does push ups the planet gets moved a few feet, depending on the number of reps., and over time, because old Chuck has been working out for quite a few decades now, he's shifted the ellipsis and the planet is a bit out of whack. That's why those summer northerlies are all east now. That's what I heard.

Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a lon... Friday, 26 Mar 2021 at 8:20am

"offshore wind dependent surfer syndrome". I am kook of the week for life ;-P but I have a bit of that disorder too.

ruckus's picture
ruckus's picture
ruckus Thursday, 25 Mar 2021 at 5:20pm

In these times of the the Norris Event or Norris Parabolic Syndrome (NPS) and Offshore Dependant
Surfer Syndrome (ODSS) is there much interest in a Biosphere where the winds are always light offshore and the waves are always glassy? Asking for a friend

willibutler's picture
willibutler's picture
willibutler Thursday, 25 Mar 2021 at 8:08pm

Can only dream about the 16 day Sypnotics

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound Thursday, 25 Mar 2021 at 9:53pm

Top shelf stuff, straight off the bottom shelf. Looks a nice ramp. We can only hope.

willibutler's picture
willibutler's picture
willibutler Friday, 26 Mar 2021 at 12:07am

I tried to access the lwt on weatherzone is that currently not working