Good swells inbound, though winds won't play ball

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 22nd)

Best Days: Keen surfers Wednesday morning on the beaches, keen surfers Thursday and Friday mornings Surf Coast for small waves

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Moderate to large W/SW groundswell for later this afternoon but with strengthening SW winds, easing slowly tomorrow with fresh to strong but abating S/SW winds, smaller Wed AM with light SE winds (E'ly at periods)
  • Small leftover surf Thu-Fri with lighter morning W winds
  • Moderate to large SW groundswlel for Sun with moderate SE winds ahead of sea breezes


A trough brought an onshore change on Saturday with a small, average and inconsistent W'ly groundswell. Not a surf day. A new pulse of swell was seen yesterday morning from a strengthening, south-east tracking mid-latitude low on Friday, producing 2-3ft sets on the Surf Coast as conditions remained bumpy.

This swell has eased into this morning with a light offshore wind, but our new, strong W/SW groundswell has just pinged on the Cape Sorell buoy and we should see it building strongly later this afternoon. The Surf Coast should hit 4-5ft, with 6-8ft sets to the east but with strong S/SW-SW winds in the wake of a trough that's currently moving through.

This week and weekend (Feb 23 - 28)

While the bulk of the long-period and strongest swell energy from the 'bombing' low is due to fill in later this afternoon, we'll continue to see plenty of size over the coming days owing to the slow moving and prolonged nature of the storm.

While the low weakened under the country on the weekend, we still saw fetches of strong to gale-force W/SW winds projected through our western swell window, with the system currently south-west of us, bringing today's change.

Size wise, similar, easing 4-5ft sets are due on the Surf Coast tomorrow morning, 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula, dropping more noticeably Wednesday from 3ft and 4-5ft respectively.

Unfortunately winds tomorrow will be poor with a fresh to strong S/SW breeze, easing later in the day, workable Wednesday and light from the SE. We may see winds tend more E'ly for a period east of Melbourne but there'll likely be a bit of lump left in the swell.

Thursday will become smaller and winds look to remain less than ideal, light W/SW-SW (W/NW early on the Surf Coast but small), increasing through the day.

Friday and Saturday look to remain small with a morning W/NW breeze on the former, S/SE on Saturday, and then we've got our new, long-period SW groundswell for Sunday.

This swell, mentioned the last couple of updates will be generated by another 'bombing' low around the Heard Island region, triggered by Tropical Cyclone Guambe, currently south-east of the South African coast, being absorbed into the westerly storm track.

As it does so it'll spawn a significant polar low, with a fetch of storm-force W'ly winds projecting through our medium-long range swell window as it tracks east-southeast.

The low will weaken south-southwest of WA mid-week, with the inconsistent, long-period SW groundswell energy due to build slowly late Saturday and peak Sunday to 3-5ft on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft to the east. Winds look to remain out of the SE, possibly E/SE for a period in the morning Sunday, and then strong SW Monday with a change. We'll have a closer look at this in the coming updates through.


Jake pownall's picture
Jake pownall's picture
Jake pownall Tuesday, 23 Feb 2021 at 4:00pm

Surely these south east weather patterns should be starting to back off soon shouldn’t they, this is definitely the most toxic run of wind/swell I can remember.
Looking at the forecast though it looks like we’re stuck with this shit for a lot longer. Boards away dirt bikes come out to play.

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound Tuesday, 23 Feb 2021 at 5:48pm

Been bad hasn’t it. Speaking from the SC.
Careful on those dirt bikes Jake. The Broken bones and autumn surf combination are even more frustrating..

Jake pownall's picture
Jake pownall's picture
Jake pownall Tuesday, 23 Feb 2021 at 6:28pm

Hahah yeah need to blow some steam off somehow though. It’s always offshore in the bush

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G Tuesday, 23 Feb 2021 at 6:33pm

Nah, gh. Seriously, thank F for other activities such as the dirtbiking, golf, badminton, rubbing one out.....whatever. This is definitely the worst stint of action that I've ever seen......surfing wise

Worst summer season in Vicco EVER.

The only hope is a for the change of season.....weeks away.....ish.......

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok Tuesday, 23 Feb 2021 at 8:39pm

Forget the dirt bikes!

Grab a kite and turn onshore slop into a playground for big turns and crazy hacks!

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster Tuesday, 23 Feb 2021 at 8:08pm




On the flip side, been playing a lot of golf in these onshores. Handicap almost on single figures now after hovering around mid teens for a fair while.

Would rather be surfing good waves but....

The poo man's picture
The poo man's picture
The poo man Wednesday, 24 Feb 2021 at 3:31am

Normal weather just like the old days imo. second year in a row with no 40 degree days

Distracted's picture
Distracted's picture
Distracted Wednesday, 24 Feb 2021 at 7:22am

Probably best if you guys don’t look at Craig’s last comment on the La Niña thread :-0

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek Wednesday, 24 Feb 2021 at 8:00am

I would say this summer is on par with last year on the MP (and thats generally pretty bloody bad). Been some really good days here and there though. Things switched for the better early-mid March last year when Covid lockdowns kicked in

dr-surf's picture
dr-surf's picture
dr-surf Wednesday, 24 Feb 2021 at 8:06am

I knew La Niña was Going to be Bad for Vic but not this Bad.