Craig

Poor weekend, stronger swells next week but mostly onshore

Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 19th)

Best Days: Keen surfers Sunday, Monday afternoon protected spots, Friday morning on the beaches

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Inconsistent W'ly groundswell Sat with increasing SW winds
  • New W/SW groundswell pulse for Sun AM but with light to moderate S/SE winds
  • Moderate to large W/SW groundswell for Mon PM but with W'ly tending SW winds (strengthening), easing Tue with strong but abating S winds
  • E/NE winds Fri AM as the surf fades

Recap

Easing mid-period SW swell yesterday and today, with some peaky SE windswell in the mix, (most noticeable on the Surf Coast). Conditions have been favourable for the beaches with hot weather and offshore winds, smaller today and with a leftover mix of swells.

This weekend and next week (Feb 20 - 26)

The weekend's outlook revolves around the window of possible light winds tomorrow morning and unfortunately it looks like we'll see a trough bringing a shallow SW change at dawn, freshening through the day.

Swell wise, there's nothing special expected in any case with an inconsistent, small, W'ly groundswell due to offer 1-2ft sets on the Surf Coast magnets, 3ft to possibly 4ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

A small reinforcing spike of W'ly groundswell is due Sunday morning, generated by a strengthening mid-latitude low dipping south-east through our swell window today, but conditions will remain average with a light to moderate southerly breeze.

Size wise a bit more energy is due on the Surf Coast with sets to 2ft to possibly 3ft, 4ft+ or so to the east.

This swell will fade into the afternoon, smaller Monday morning with a dawn W'ly ahead of a strengthening SW change late morning.

Our strong, long-period and inconsistent W/SW groundswell for the afternoon is on track, with a great fetch of storm-force winds generated through our far swell window, currently weaker and back to severe-gale strength while being projected towards the Bight. The 'bombing' low will continue to weaken while moving east, though maintain bursts of strong to gale-force W/SW winds through our western swell window tomorrow, a touch weaker Sunday while projecting closer to us.

We'll see a moderate-large sized, prolonged W/SW swell event with the strongest, long-period energy arriving Monday and building towards a peak into the afternoon with sets to 4-5ft on the Surf Coast magnets, 6-8ft to the east.

The easing trend will be slow, with a drop from a similar size Tuesday morning, down more noticeably from 2-3ft and 4ft+ respectively.

Winds are still an issue with that strong SW'ly into Monday afternoon, fresh to strong from the S/SW Tuesday, easing a little late in the day, then light to moderate S/SE on Wednesday.

Winds will take their time to swing offshore, still moderate to fresh SE Thursday morning, E/NE Friday morning but the swell will be all but gone by then.

Longer term, we've got another significant polar low on the cards for mid-next week, with a moderate-large S/SW groundswell likely next weekend. Winds are still up in the air though look more than likely onshore. More on this Monday. Have a great weekend!

Comments

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek Friday, 19 Feb 2021 at 9:19am

Wind forecast is all over the shop for tomorrow, every site has something different

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 19 Feb 2021 at 9:29am

Yeah, a tricky little trough, but in general poor and onshore.

McGusto's picture
McGusto's picture
McGusto Friday, 19 Feb 2021 at 10:24am

damn it Craigos! i have been watching those winds all week and its gone from onshore, to offshore, to cross shore to on again! preying for morning northerlies as i reckon the beachies could be quite fun!

davidgreen67's picture
davidgreen67's picture
davidgreen67 Friday, 19 Feb 2021 at 11:13am

Saying very light n/nw on the peninsula early ! This morning was better than reported thank goodness ! 2-3ft slow but some good ones occasionally and not many humans

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster Friday, 19 Feb 2021 at 11:50am

Tiny on the Surfcoast which is the new normal whenever it's offshore these days.

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 Friday, 19 Feb 2021 at 12:11pm

At what point do we have the difficult conversation about it's current name of the 'Surfcoast'...? Give it one more autumn/winter?

Whilst we're all not surfing due to shit conditions, let's come up with some alternative names!

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek Friday, 19 Feb 2021 at 2:32pm

Maybe we swap surf and hoax coast names for a while?

walter-r-white's picture
walter-r-white's picture
walter-r-white Friday, 19 Feb 2021 at 4:02pm

How about the Development Coast? Or the Outer West Melbourne Coast?

walter-r-white's picture
walter-r-white's picture
walter-r-white Friday, 19 Feb 2021 at 4:00pm

Well said.

Chaz's picture
Chaz's picture
Chaz Friday, 19 Feb 2021 at 5:30pm

its not often that you dont give a fark whether it offshore or onshore ,so surfed out what a week

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Friday, 19 Feb 2021 at 5:50pm

Thursday was actually a bit of a hoot. The swell *looked* SE for all intents and purposes ('coast in reverse', 'it's like East coast!' novelty), and doing the search revealed some really tasty shape. We reveled in the great little waves, having discovered the hint of a good setup on a coastal walk when it was tiny.
Also, fin testing came up a winner so all round a great session.
To those moaning above, try a summer in Perth; the glass really is half full even if it's onshore here on the worst run ever. And if it's truly awful, try a rockpool session, you might even find a little cowrie.

https://www.swellnet.com/surfcams/scarborough

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 Friday, 19 Feb 2021 at 5:55pm

VJ...mate you’re supposed to talk it down to keep the punters away!

But you’re right, look hard enough and there’s some little nuggets of fun to be found

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 19 Feb 2021 at 6:47pm

How good! Always think outside the box. 

ruckus's picture
ruckus's picture
ruckus Monday, 22 Feb 2021 at 7:45am

Onya VJ. Seek and thee shall find. Surfed 21 days straight over the summer break and not just ok surf some dream sessions with limited crowds and good mellow vibes. Meanwhile everyone else was complaining it was the worst summer on record ;) Hope you got plenty of fun ones, you cannot beat a sneaky dream sesh with good friends and/or good crew. Sending good vibrations too you and all involved

Philt's picture
Philt's picture
Philt Friday, 19 Feb 2021 at 9:19pm

Armstrong creek coast

The Plowking's picture
The Plowking's picture
The Plowking Friday, 19 Feb 2021 at 10:43pm

2 quality surfs in last 2 days.
Hooray