Poor weekend, stronger swells next week but mostly onshore
Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 19th)
Best Days: Keen surfers Sunday, Monday afternoon protected spots, Friday morning on the beaches
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Inconsistent W'ly groundswell Sat with increasing SW winds
- New W/SW groundswell pulse for Sun AM but with light to moderate S/SE winds
- Moderate to large W/SW groundswell for Mon PM but with W'ly tending SW winds (strengthening), easing Tue with strong but abating S winds
- E/NE winds Fri AM as the surf fades
Easing mid-period SW swell yesterday and today, with some peaky SE windswell in the mix, (most noticeable on the Surf Coast). Conditions have been favourable for the beaches with hot weather and offshore winds, smaller today and with a leftover mix of swells.
This weekend and next week (Feb 20 - 26)
The weekend's outlook revolves around the window of possible light winds tomorrow morning and unfortunately it looks like we'll see a trough bringing a shallow SW change at dawn, freshening through the day.
Swell wise, there's nothing special expected in any case with an inconsistent, small, W'ly groundswell due to offer 1-2ft sets on the Surf Coast magnets, 3ft to possibly 4ft on the Mornington Peninsula.
A small reinforcing spike of W'ly groundswell is due Sunday morning, generated by a strengthening mid-latitude low dipping south-east through our swell window today, but conditions will remain average with a light to moderate southerly breeze.
Size wise a bit more energy is due on the Surf Coast with sets to 2ft to possibly 3ft, 4ft+ or so to the east.
This swell will fade into the afternoon, smaller Monday morning with a dawn W'ly ahead of a strengthening SW change late morning.
Our strong, long-period and inconsistent W/SW groundswell for the afternoon is on track, with a great fetch of storm-force winds generated through our far swell window, currently weaker and back to severe-gale strength while being projected towards the Bight. The 'bombing' low will continue to weaken while moving east, though maintain bursts of strong to gale-force W/SW winds through our western swell window tomorrow, a touch weaker Sunday while projecting closer to us.
We'll see a moderate-large sized, prolonged W/SW swell event with the strongest, long-period energy arriving Monday and building towards a peak into the afternoon with sets to 4-5ft on the Surf Coast magnets, 6-8ft to the east.
The easing trend will be slow, with a drop from a similar size Tuesday morning, down more noticeably from 2-3ft and 4ft+ respectively.
Winds are still an issue with that strong SW'ly into Monday afternoon, fresh to strong from the S/SW Tuesday, easing a little late in the day, then light to moderate S/SE on Wednesday.
Winds will take their time to swing offshore, still moderate to fresh SE Thursday morning, E/NE Friday morning but the swell will be all but gone by then.
Longer term, we've got another significant polar low on the cards for mid-next week, with a moderate-large S/SW groundswell likely next weekend. Winds are still up in the air though look more than likely onshore. More on this Monday. Have a great weekend!