Craig

Good run of swells and conditions ahead of uncertainty next week

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 29th July)

Best Days: Thursday morning protected spots for the keen, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday

Recap

Average to poor conditions across all locations yesterday morning with a fresh onshore wind, improving through the afternoon as winds backed off and tended more variable.

Today we've got much cleaner conditions and an easing swell from 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 3-5ft to the east. Early variable winds will shift NW into the afternoon and hold.

This week and weekend (Jul 30 – Aug 2)

From tomorrow through the weekend we'll see fun and moderate pulses of W/SW swell across the state, with tomorrow morning being the weakest (mid-period energy), ahead of less consistent groundswell energy into the afternoon and through Friday-Sunday.

The source of these swells is a conveyer belt of mid-latitude fronts from the Indian Ocean, moving through our western swell window with various fetches of strong to gale-force W/SW-W/NW winds moving east.

An initial strong front is now moving in from the Bight while weakening and this will produce tomorrow's mid-period energy ahead of the groundswell into the afternoon.

Building surf to 3ft is due through the day on the Surf Coast (undersized early), 4-5ft to the east and a morning W/NW breeze will favour protected spots ahead of SW-S/SW winds into the afternoon.

The less consistent but stronger groundswell should provide better 3ft+ sets Friday morning on the Surf Coast with 5-6ft sets to the east and winds look favourable all day and out of the N/NW, possibly variable from the N/NE into the afternoon opening up more options east of Melbourne as the swell starts to ease.

Another similar sized pulse of swell should be seen Saturday to that 3ft range and 4-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula, if not for the possibly bigger bomb on either coast at times. This is being generated by the pre-frontal fetch of W/NW winds highlighted in the image above.

Conditions will remain favourable with a freshening N-N/NW'ly breeze, possibly similar Sunday but here's where the models start to diverge (discussed further below).

An approaching cold front projecting up from under WA towards the Bight is expected to produce another pulse of W/SW swell for Sunday, with a stronger long-period groundswell building Monday from its earlier stages around the Heard Island region.

Size wise Sunday's pulse looks similar to the ones before, with Monday afternoon's a touch stronger and to 4ft on the Surf Coast (inconsistent) and 6ft on the Mornington Peninsula but the local winds are really tricky as the models diverge wildly into next week.

What looks to be the most likely is a trough projecting up and across South Australia, developing into a broad cut-off low which will then stall just west of us. This would see N'ly winds persisting Monday and maybe Tuesday ahead of an onshore change and with some tricky S/SW swell. More on this Friday when the models hopefully start to line up.

Comments

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Wednesday, 29 Jul 2020 at 10:28am

Should forecast politics and opinions Craigoss. Might do the old reverse psychology and we can talk about shack?

I am the bone

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok commented Wednesday, 29 Jul 2020 at 12:14pm

Hah!

Reported Covid numbers expected to surge on Friday, leading to a mix of new restrictions and angry locals expected for the weekend. Things calming down Sunday/Monday with reported numbers expected to ease, leaving early next week the best days to surf.

McGusto's picture
McGusto's picture
McGusto commented Wednesday, 29 Jul 2020 at 3:20pm

Classic! Quote of the year from the bone

NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth commented Wednesday, 29 Jul 2020 at 3:31pm

Surfed for 4+hours was fun 2 foot. Would have been spewing if I done the drive and got scuffed considering it was meant to be 3 foot +

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 29 Jul 2020 at 3:49pm

Huh? I had easing 3ft sets on the Surf Coast magnets today.

Still pulling in 3ft'ers on the cam as well just then..

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Wednesday, 29 Jul 2020 at 4:02pm

Correct Craig. 3ft sets across all reefs between Juc and Bells and I spent 3 hours out in it making sure I got the sample size right for you.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 29 Jul 2020 at 4:05pm

Thanks Ringy.

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Wednesday, 29 Jul 2020 at 5:31pm

Sounds like you got the best of it this morning Jezza, sooo small, weak and slow this arvo :(
Hopefully better days ahead?

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound commented Wednesday, 29 Jul 2020 at 6:10pm

That’s nature for you I guess!

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Wednesday, 29 Jul 2020 at 3:32pm

South Channel. Classic bullshit North. Surely it’s the West Coast offshore prevailing on the back beach. NW at best

I am the bone

stylemaster1970's picture
stylemaster1970's picture
stylemaster1970 commented Wednesday, 29 Jul 2020 at 3:39pm

North in McCrae Bone.

If you argue with a fool long enough you will lose sight of who the fool really is........

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Wednesday, 29 Jul 2020 at 4:36pm

Definitely fucked on the back beaches. Knew I should taken a photo. I swear the tip has this magic barrier. Anyways..

I am the bone

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror commented Thursday, 30 Jul 2020 at 5:59am

Hey Bone
The roosters outer wing has a cash deposit,
Once in my life time I have had the opportunity to tunnel for gold at the chicken farm.
It"s running wide and fast from the intruder.
Roosting all the way to a bowl of chicken soup in front of pitmans rag doll rock.
Corduroys, not much water, and most areas shutting down, this is the ideal cooking conditions.
If I see you buying some free range eggs at my pantry i'll let ya know the go. Just don't tell the ORIGINALS cause they don't know, it's not all about show.

Oceanbeach's picture
Oceanbeach's picture
Oceanbeach commented Thursday, 30 Jul 2020 at 1:54pm

Ha pitmans rag doll rock classic

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Wednesday, 29 Jul 2020 at 3:45pm

This lockdown is really starting to take effect!

Only 40 odd punters out at Winki mid morning.

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog commented Thursday, 30 Jul 2020 at 7:02pm

Wait till jobkeeper finishes up in March next year. Add another %15 to that.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Thursday, 30 Jul 2020 at 9:19pm

Not sure if that crowd was due to lockdown. The fact it's been absolute gash for weeks on end probably increased the numbers yesterday when it was slightly better than small and onshore.
But on a brighter note, the cops were seriously out in force patrolling the beaches today.
Loved their tactic of positioning themselves out of site of the beach. When surfers came up the stairs, they were confronted by the boys in blue and had nowhere to go. "Which car is yours mate? And now let's see your ID." Hope they fined a bunch of irresponsible flogs from Melbourne.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok commented Thursday, 30 Jul 2020 at 9:57pm

Please VL - enough with the stories!!

What do you mean by seriously out in force?? Like Minneapolis style?? Are they patrolling the streets?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-02/minneapolis-woman-shot-at-by-poli...

You loved their tactic....? What were you doing, watching them? Bit strange....Were you standing close enough to listen to their conversations? Hope you were wearing a mask! But, why didn't they fine you? Surely fawning over police is not a reason to be outside?

And are they really dishing out fines if you're not a local with ID to back it up? What if you just moved down there? Or if your parents live in Geelong and you're caring for them - nup, doesn't matter - fined!! Got to love overbearing state powers!

Come on, your posts show you're balancing on the edge of milking this for uncrowded surf, or actually looking out for your community. Choose a side a stick with it!

p.s. I don't know of any surfers in Melb risking it for the surf coast. Maybe some who are working down there take their board as well, maybe. But the vast majority are doing the right thing. Stop perpetuating us vs. them!

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound commented Thursday, 30 Jul 2020 at 10:24pm

I Agree stocky..

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Thursday, 30 Jul 2020 at 10:28pm

It was poop today anyway. Not worth a $60 fine let alone $1600

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok commented Thursday, 30 Jul 2020 at 10:38pm

Remember Melb surfers used to fork out $79 to sit among 18 friends and catch 12 mostly gutless (but some tubular) waves in the tub!

Whole day down the coast - 6+ hours of surf and all of a sudden that fine starts to make sense compared to the pool?? If I was Dandrew's I'd be upping the fines specifically for surfers, minimum say $3K - the cost of a Ments trip at least. Proper deterrent!

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Wednesday, 29 Jul 2020 at 5:12pm

Onshore at rye tonight. South channel telling fibs again