Craig

Smaller, less consistent swells

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 12th August)

Best Days: Surf Coast Tuesday morning, Surf Coast late Thursday and early Friday, exposed beaches Saturday, Surf Coast Sunday afternoon

Recap

Workable waves on the Surf Coast Saturday morning for keen surfers with a bit of west in the wind and surf between 3-4ft though bitterly cold. From late morning conditions deteriorated and the rest of the weekend was a stormy mess.

This morning winds have backed off and conditions were a bit better across the Surf Coast but still very average, poor elsewhere.

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

This week and weekend (Aug 13 - 18)

The surf is expected to clean up into tomorrow morning with a W/NW offshore on the Surf Coast and a mix of weak swells, though holding steady through the day with a new mid-period S/SW swell. The swell is being generated by a weak front that's currently pushing up and across Tassie, with the surf due to hang around 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and the 3-4ft range to the east.

Winds should hold all morning before shifting S/SW-SW around early afternoon, if not going more variable.

Wednesday will see more favourable N/NW winds across all locations but we'll be looking at small fading surf from 2ft max on the sets across the Surf Coast and 3ft to the east on the sets.

We then look to our inconsistent long-range W/SW groundswell for later in the week and there's been a slight downgrade in the expected size and and winds swinging onshore at its peak.

A slow moving and dipping low south-east through our swell window to the south-west of WA has been generating a fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds in our swell window.

The secondary intensification to severe-gale force strength winds didn't occur and we're now expected to see a little less size. The swell is due to build later Thursday and reach 2ft+ by dark on the Surf Coast and 4ft on the sets across the Mornington Peninsula, peaking Friday morning to an inconsistent 3ft on the sets across the Surf Coast swell magnets and 4-5ft to the east.

Pre-frontal N/NW winds will create clean conditions all day Thursday, but a trough will move through Friday, with a dawn W/NW'ly expected to shift S/SW mid-late morning (without much strength), S/SE into the late afternoon.

Conditions should clean up rapidly into Saturday with a moderate N/NE offshore along with a secondary, long-range and inconsistent W/SW groundswell to a touch less size.

A small and intense but distant low will generate this swell east of Heard Island, with the fetch due to reach severe-gale in strength.

Inconsistent 2-3ft sets should persist Saturday morning on the Surf Coast, with 3-5ft waves to the east, easing through the day under the favourable offshore.

Stronger N tending NW winds are due on Sunday with a mix of building mid-period surf from a pre-frontal W/NW fetch moving in from the south-west of WA. No major size is expected with sets to 3ft on the Surf Coast later in the day and Monday, 4-5ft+ to the east. Monday looks poor as the tail of the frontal progression moves through bringing a strong SW change and additional mid-period SW swell.

Longer term a much more significant but still distant polar storm is forecast to develop by GFS on the weekend, but not ECMWF so we'll have to keep an eye on this through the coming week.

Comments

Lukasr2's picture
Lukasr2's picture
Lukasr2 commented Monday, 12 Aug 2019 at 6:57pm

Hey Craig,
Is there any likelihood of a small fun wave at winki on Wednesday?? Even shoulder high??

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 12 Aug 2019 at 8:08pm

I wouldn't say fun., it'll be an easing 1-2ft..

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Tuesday, 13 Aug 2019 at 3:27pm

It will be 'fun' city at Winki tomorrow!

*If your idea of 'fun' is sitting around with 25 - 35 other people waiting for slow, chest high, Westerly fattys coming in sets of 2 or 3 every 5 minutes or so.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Tuesday, 13 Aug 2019 at 4:05pm

Don't bother with Winki Lukasr2. A better option would be Steps. Ringmaster would be happy to show you the best takeoff spot, the best channel to paddle out in, and then give you a long range forecast to share with your mates.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound commented Monday, 12 Aug 2019 at 7:18pm

None

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Tuesday, 13 Aug 2019 at 1:38pm

When you pray for a SW onshore and cant even get that. Cheers Vic

I am the bone

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Tuesday, 13 Aug 2019 at 7:28pm

Don't get me wrong NB, the pen is bloody beautiful, with its sandy tracks meandering through the Tea and Moonah trees in search of open stretches of sand and ocean but it ain't called the hoax coast for nothing (Especially the portsea end)

I've spent many, many hour's and effort in my younger years chasing that rainbow around the area and did score some amazing gold but the sum of all the efforts......? There's more reliable waves elsewhere but pretty much everywhere is busy now anyway.....just saying.
It'll be summer soon enough and you'll get the spoiles and I'll be discontent

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror commented Tuesday, 13 Aug 2019 at 7:33pm

you got what ya prayed for bone
you and the endless plumb plumb
I saw ya
you shoulda surfed the left not 3rd burger
or the left at middles was good
ha ha

adsi's picture
adsi's picture
adsi commented Tuesday, 13 Aug 2019 at 9:21pm

Damn now winds looking southwest on friday morning. Only 2 days I've got down surf coast and both thurs and fri look shit. Bugger