Very large swell inbound

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 24th April)

Best Days: Surf Coast Thursday afternoon, protected spots for experienced surfers Friday and Saturday, Surf Coast Sunday and Monday, exposed beaches Tuesday

Recap

Variable winds and easing surf yesterday across all locations from 2-3ft on the Surf Coast magnets and 3-4ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

This morning the swell has eased further with small to tiny clean waves around Torquay, fun on the exposed beaches and to 2-3ft. A new mix of very inconsistent long-period W/SW groundswell and better closer-range W/SW swell should build this afternoon with relatively weak onshore S'ly winds. The Surf Coast may reach 2-3ft, with 3-5ft sets to the east.

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

This week and weekend (Apr 25 - 28)

This afternoon's increase in W/SW swells are due to peak overnight and ease temporarily into tomorrow morning back to 2-3ft on the sets on the Surf Coast swell magnets and 3-5ft to the east. Through the day though we'll see a better increase in W/SW swell, generated by a strengthening mid-latitude front moving in under the country today.

A great fetch of W/SW gales will be projected through our western swell window, with the swell due to build into tomorrow afternoon, likely reaching 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula later. Winds will be favourable all day for the Surf Coast and moderate to fresh from the NW tending W/NW.

Of greater importance is the deepening and strengthening low forming on the back of the mid-latitude front, with it broadening while projecting an excellent fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW tending SW winds under the country and up through our south-western swell window, pushing across Tasmania on Friday.

The storm-force winds acting on top an active sea state will result in a very large and powerful long-period SW groundswell event, building Friday and easing from a S/SW direction on Saturday while remaining large.

Friday morning looks to be around the 4-5ft range on the sets across the Surf Coast magnets, 6-8ft to the east, but building rapidly through the afternoon and reaching at least 8ft later in the day on the Surf Coast, if not for 10ft cleanups on dark at magnets, with the Mornington Peninsula maxing out around 10-12ft.

Saturday will remain large and powerful owing to the tail end of the low generating a storm-force SW fetch through our southern swell window Friday before passing across Tasmania, with easing surf from 8ft on the sets across Surf Coast magnets (6-8ft most breaks), and 10ft+ to the east.

Looking at the local winds, and Friday will be best in protected spots with a fresh to strong W/SW tending possibly SW breeze, with the Torquay region likely seeing a short period of W'ly winds around dawn.

Saturday looks great in protected spots for experienced surfers as winds back off in strength and come from the W/NW-W and only being moderate to fresh in strength.

A reinforcing SW swell will be seen into Sunday, generated by a broad and strong front swinging in behind Friday's storm, and this should keep the Surf Coast up around 4-5ft+ Sunday and 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula. A morning W/NW breeze will favour protected spots again with bumpy conditions into the afternoon as winds swing W/SW-SW.

A steady drop in size should be seen Monday and further Tuesday with improving winds for more exposed breaks.

Longer term we should see some new W/SW swell building from mid-week, though the models diverge on the size and local winds, so check back here Friday for more on this.

Comments

HORACE's picture
HORACE's picture
HORACE Wednesday, 24 Apr 2019 at 5:46pm

Can the WSL extend the event window if necessary?

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G Wednesday, 24 Apr 2019 at 6:27pm

Mate, don't give them any ideas, I'm sure they did it on the Goldy once, maybe only a few years ago, if I remember correctly. There've almost had their entire window and that's fine but it's now time to hand it back to the rest of us frothers.

HORACE's picture
HORACE's picture
HORACE Wednesday, 24 Apr 2019 at 8:41pm

Yeah I'd hate it if I was a local. Hopefully once their time is up that's it.

SGAG's picture
SGAG's picture
SGAG Wednesday, 24 Apr 2019 at 6:36pm

I'm there right now Horry Gorry and there'll be no need!

HORACE's picture
HORACE's picture
HORACE Wednesday, 24 Apr 2019 at 8:44pm

Ha ha. Awesome TC!? Have fun

beenjammin's picture
beenjammin's picture
beenjammin Wednesday, 24 Apr 2019 at 6:50pm

Lorne point gonna be on FIRE Ben! Frothin

tango's picture
tango's picture
tango Wednesday, 24 Apr 2019 at 11:12pm

Righto, that'll do. No encouragement required.

FreddyWaters's picture
FreddyWaters's picture
FreddyWaters Wednesday, 24 Apr 2019 at 11:36pm

Feels like groundhog day with the talks of the '50 year storm', a swell seems to be labelled exactly that every single year but never makes it past 8ft along the surfcoast, but this swell is unique with its latitude being more south than usual, when lots of these size and close proximity swells are too W to make it past cape otway. The south in direction along with the storm strength is looking impressive for any winter swell, let alone being in the waiting period for the pro. Safe to say the hype could be warranted, bring it on huey.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Thursday, 25 Apr 2019 at 4:45pm

Bloody oath FreddyW. That South component and period are looking pretty impressive. Can't see it being less than 10foot plus at it's peak...shame that the main activity happens at night. Looks like a legitimate 12ft plus through the evening.... damn! Should still be some pretty epic energy each side of Friday evening.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Thursday, 25 Apr 2019 at 6:46am

Well, there's hype and then there's HYPE!

https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/freak-waves-up-to-10-metres-to-hit-victoria-s-west-coast-on-friday-20190424-p51gyn.html

""Freak waves" of more than 10 metres are expected on the west coast as the world's best surfers take to Bells Beach for the Rip Curl Pro."

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G Thursday, 25 Apr 2019 at 6:59am

Multiple swell trains in the water, some funny looking one's but it's clean and the bigger mid period swell looks fun. 2-3ft with some 4ft sets in the bowl occasionally. Great day of competition coming up. Plenty of dawny over-frother's out at first light.

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G Thursday, 25 Apr 2019 at 7:58am

Hey Craig, is there a way to embed the actual photo in the comments, rather than just a hyperlink?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 25 Apr 2019 at 7:59am

Yeah you need to use [ ] and also on that link, righ click the image to get the image URL and paste that.

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G Thursday, 25 Apr 2019 at 8:07am

Ahhh, right click on a mobile phone.......

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 25 Apr 2019 at 8:08am

Ahh maybe hold your finger and copy the image link, or open in new tab and copy that.. Tricky.

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G Thursday, 25 Apr 2019 at 8:09am
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G Thursday, 25 Apr 2019 at 8:11am

That's the image URL.....?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 25 Apr 2019 at 8:13am

Perfect now paste that between the image tags [img][/img]

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G Thursday, 25 Apr 2019 at 8:17am
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G Thursday, 25 Apr 2019 at 8:21am

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 25 Apr 2019 at 8:22am

Nice, we got there!

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G Thursday, 25 Apr 2019 at 8:23am

Faaaarrrrrk, finally! Sorry everyone, not only a kook in the water by the looks of it ;)

pancakecollaroy's picture
pancakecollaroy's picture
pancakecollaroy Thursday, 25 Apr 2019 at 11:13am

That was a really helpful tutorial thanks

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Thursday, 25 Apr 2019 at 1:07pm

Nice shot!

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Thursday, 25 Apr 2019 at 6:17pm

Loving that shot mate. Look forward to tomorrow’s edition ;)

beenjammin's picture
beenjammin's picture
beenjammin Thursday, 25 Apr 2019 at 8:11am

What’s up with the WSLs official forecaster calling the swell at 18-20ft on the faces and your model is stuck on 8ft?
I’m generally pretty wary of hype, and of storm sources so close, especially with a strong SW wind. Maybe victory at sea 12ft at bells Friday arvo?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 25 Apr 2019 at 8:15am

18-20ft faces is 8-10ft or so by our model. We don't use face feet. Sets should reach 10ft by close of play tomorrow.

beenjammin's picture
beenjammin's picture
beenjammin Thursday, 25 Apr 2019 at 8:29am

Thanks Craig. Hear what you’re saying but I’m not sure it makes a heap of sense to me. I’ve got full faith in your call. In the past you’ve been spot on! Expecting to see 10ft waves at bells tomorrow which means solid 8ft elsewhere in my book. Making calls on WSL sites of wave faces being 18-20ft seems like marketing BS. With that call you’d expect surfers on waves of that size and I can’t see that happening...

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Thursday, 25 Apr 2019 at 6:18pm

Whatever the Americans and or WSL (the same thing basically) say divide by two

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound Thursday, 25 Apr 2019 at 5:20pm

Shit do we have to go through this wave height talk again.
Gonna be solid. Done!!!!

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Thursday, 25 Apr 2019 at 6:03pm

Yep, each time.

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog Thursday, 25 Apr 2019 at 7:13pm

tripple 'GARRY' tomorrow...debate over

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Thursday, 25 Apr 2019 at 7:20pm

You win today pigdog. Just hoping KP uses the Garry dimension next time he tries to whip up the hype.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 25 Apr 2019 at 6:34pm

Haha.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Thursday, 25 Apr 2019 at 7:35pm

KP is going to look very silly comparing tomorrow with 1981.
81 was perfect with the swell produced by a massive storm deep in the southern ocean. The low pressure system producing this swell isn’t overly large or overly deep. It’s right in the swell window and intensified at the right time to produce big (wind effected) waves but it’s nothing even remotely close to 81.
KP will be telling us we can expect a great ski season next.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 25 Apr 2019 at 7:40pm

I agree, the hype with this has gone out of control, articles in mainstream media, press conferences from the BOM in South Australia and with the SES. Where's the face slap emoji.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Thursday, 25 Apr 2019 at 8:18pm

You know that when a vic swell has reached the f&$#ing smh as an article that we've reached the Twilight Zone...

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Thursday, 25 Apr 2019 at 7:54pm

This is how overhyped tomorrow is. Whenever there is a serious swell on the way, Parks Victoria send out a warning for the Great Ocean Walk and let people know Gibson Steps will be closed. They do this on average 3-4 times a year.
Parks Vic haven’t sent out any warnings of advisory notices for this “50 year storm” that could be “as big as 81”. Yes it will be solid but not that triple Garry solid.

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster Thursday, 25 Apr 2019 at 8:09pm

Hype......did someone say HYPE???

Surfed late morning after most of the over frothers had fucked off and had a great session. Footy and beers with a few lads for the Pies/Bombers clash capped off a pretty good ANZAC day.

Gunna wake up early tomorrow, walk to the JJ cliffs and see how over hyped this 50 year swell is with my own eyes.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 25 Apr 2019 at 8:21pm

How good was that game. Besides the umpires losing their whistles in the last!

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster Thursday, 25 Apr 2019 at 8:43pm

Ripper game Craig and I hate both those clubs. Lucky a big chunk of armed forces personnel were there cause those putrid field umpires that tried their best to ruin it would have needed an escort from the MCG to wherever they parked their cars.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Thursday, 25 Apr 2019 at 8:21pm

If you see Bodhi you can't arrest him, you just have to let him go out.

3 more days to go

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Thursday, 25 Apr 2019 at 9:46pm

I reckon the WSL think Bells Beach has a train station for Bhodi. Toot Toot for tomorrow.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Thursday, 25 Apr 2019 at 8:19pm

Wonder how KP does it with a straight face. He’s a charging fucken lunatic of the highest order, he must cringe when he has to read the WSL hype froth out to the punters.
I bet he’s never used face height to call a swell in his life