Large surf later today and tomorrow
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 5th April)
Best Days: Today, protected spots tomorrow for experienced surfers, Surf Coast Thursday morning, exposed beaches Friday, beaches Sunday morning and Monday morning
Recap
Nothing of note Saturday but our new pulse of W/SW swell with favourable winds for yesterday came in above Friday's forecast, but more in line with Wednesday's forecast, with a strengthening front/low moving in from the west performing better than the models had forecast on Friday (which had a downgrade in its intensity). The Surf Coast saw consistent 4ft surf with bigger sets at magnets and 6ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula.
Conditions were great across most locations as N'ly breezes shifted NW through the morning and remained offshore from the W/NW on the Surf Coast.
We saw a temporary low point in swell early this morning, between yesterday morning's W/SW swell and a new building long-period W/SW groundswell with great offshore winds on the Surf Coast. We should see magnets building to an easy 6ft by later today and 8ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula as winds strengthen from the W/NW-NW.
Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl
This week and weekend (Apr 9 - 14)
The first of two large long-period W/SW groundswells is on the build today, generated by a polar low that formed around Heard Island mid-last week and then moved slowly east and then up towards us through the weekend while generating a fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds.
A large long-period W/SW groundswell should build to an easy 6ft on the Surf Coast swell magnets by the close of play today with favourable though strengthening offshore winds, choppy and 8ft+ to the east.
This swell will be reinforced by a secondary large long-period W/SW groundswell tomorrow, produced by a secondary front pushing up on top of the active sea state generated by the first storm.
The fetch didn't quite reach the storm-force range as forecast and as a result there's been a slight downgrade in the expected size. The Surf Coast swell magnets should see 6-8ft sets (smaller at other breaks with the west direction), with surf around 10ft on the Mornington Peninsula.
Winds will be best for protected locations with an early W-W/NW breeze on the Surf Coast, W to the east, shifting gusty W/SW-SW through the day. It won't be perfect but the Surf Coast reefs should offer challenging waves for experienced surfers.
The swell will start to ease later tomorrow afternoon, further through Wednesday though slowed by some reinforcing SW swell generated by a trailing frontal system stretched out from the polar shelf and our state.
Winds won't be great with a moderate to sometimes fresh SW tending S/SW breeze, with only a slim chance for an early W'ly at dawn around Torquay. The surf will ease from the 4-5ft range on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula.
Thursday should still offer a bit of size and mid-period S/SW swell keeps the Surf Coast up at 3ft+ and the Mornington Peninsula 4-5ft+ and with a weaker SW tending S/SE breeze. With this Torquay should see a morning W/NW'ly ahead of the sea breeze.
Friday will be a day for the beaches to the east with a swing in winds around to the N/NE along with fun easing 3-4ft sets, 2ft+ on the Surf Coast.
As touched on last week, there's nothing significant due into the weekend with the swell bottoming out Saturday along with NW winds ahead of a surface trough and S/SE change, followed by a small inconsistent W/SW swell for Sunday.
Winds will improve and tend E Sunday morning as the swell builds, generated by a distant low forming west-southwest of WA tomorrow. The storm will be quite impressive, but swell decay due to the long travel distant will only likely result in the Mornington Peninsula seeing inconsistent 3-5ft sets, 2ft on the Surf Coast.
Longer term we'll see strong storms firing up towards WA, generating inconsistent W/SW groundswells through next week, with more favourable developments from the following week (Easter Monday). More on this Wednesday though.
Comments
Swell is on the up..
So are the drop ins by the um ‘ pros’
Just had 1 of the chicks burn me bad at bells, not sure which one.
Friggin circus is in town.!
Medina and Toledo better pull their heads in this year. Last year they were a fricken disgrace in the water telling TBC senior members to eff off at the breaks they've been surfing for 40 + years.
can you please fight Dickie Toledo?
No can do. Doctor's orders. You never know, he might get a slap from one of the regulars this year. 60kg blokes shouldn't behave like they are 100kg blokes.
Reckon he’d go down whistling?
I've got no dog in this fight, but I'd like to put a thought out there. Locals get to run the lineup 350 days of the year. The CT crew are in town for two weeks - maybe three. They've got precious few days to tune their boards, get the wave dialled, find their rhythm etc ... and precious few years to make a livelihood out of surfing before they're cast aside.
If they're from the States or Australia, they've probably been sponsored since before they were in high school.
If they grew up in a slum and their current income is providing for an extended family that probably reaches into the dozens ... they're probably not too concerned about making nice with the locals who can have their wave back in a week's time.
And the local who works 12 hours a day providing for his family and only gets an hour or so every couple of days at wave or waves he's dedicated his life to working out isn't going to be too concerned about making nice with someone making six figures from surfing who's going to be gone in a few days
Tim Fisher, or you could say the vast majority of professional surfers are decent people who understand they are representing their brands / country / selves and behave themselves in the water. Then there's a handful of dickheads who think they have the right to drop in / snake everyone because they are pros. That sort of shit may cut it in their home countries where they are hero-worshipped but it sure as shit doesn't cut it down here.
Tim it is about respect not trashing the place which is the issue. Their problem is just that and dog eat dog is not the answer and partly the problem why their country is in the toilet despite the riches it possesses.
What happened on shore following that? Not happy days?
Probably want to be careful of a 60 kg brazillian who probably trains in brazillian ju jitsu.
Wouldn't matter if the other guy is 100+ kilos and jumps on him.
Better get used to it girls.........for at least the next 3 weeks now that Snapper’s been run & won already.
I caught a cupla crackers just on dark tonight and not a stickered up midget in sight.
Happy fucken days!!!
Exactly Ringmaster, use your years of experience & know how to good advantage, you don't have to show up when & where the "curtain goes up". Some might know the quieter nooks & crannies that will still produce gold!.
The swell never really reached the anticipated size this morning did it? Last night was pumping though.
Buoy readings are strong and still climbing at Point Nepean. Any ground reports from this morning and now with the incoming tide? Bells and Winki would have to be seeing 6-8ft sets. Not the best conditions as expected though.
Hey Ben, The swell was around 5-6ft at Bells n Winki this morning but broken and no where near as good as it was the last two hours before dark last night. Last nights swell direction was from the SW, straight as and the wind eased right back, so it got glassy. I just looked at Bells now and it's now 6-8ft but pretty much victory at sea conditions, with a strong SW wind pushing it over. This second swell pulse must have been more west in nature because Cath's and more protected spots were much smaller and less consistent. Still fun though.
Cheers and it's Craig ;) haha, nice yeah yesterday afternoon/evening was the pick!
Whoops! I got use to you being away, sorry matey, my bad :)
Grommy on a solid one at Bells..
Meanwhile, it's almost flat at Lorne.
high tide letting the amplitude go through to the keeper
and yes, direction
HAHAHAHA!!!
Classic