Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 5th April)

Best Days: Both coasts Sunday, protected spots Monday and Tuesday for experienced surfers

Recap

A strong though short-lived spike in new SW swell yesterday from the strengthening and tight front moving through our swell window Wednesday, coming in at 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 4-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula. Conditions were cleaner than expected on the Surf Coast through the morning and into the afternoon with more variable E'ly tending S winds, while the Mornington Peninsula improved through the late morning and early afternoon as winds swung more offshore.

The swell eased into yesterday afternoon and this morning there's not much size left at all with a peaky 1-2ft wave on the Surf Coast and 2ft to occasionally 3ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula and Phillip Island.

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

This weekend and next week (Apr 6 - 12)

Tomorrow will be a lay day with no swell through the morning and clean conditions on the Surf Coast with an early W/NW breeze, shifting W/SW-SW through the morning as a front clips the state.

This front was forecast to be a mid-latitude low but is looking weaker now, and as a result the size of the swell for Sunday morning has been downgraded.

We'll still see a fun pulse of mid-period W/SW swell for Sunday morning, with a strong to near gale fetch of W/SW winds produced directly south-west of us.

This swell does't look to be to the size of Thursday morning's, instead coming in around 3ft on the magnets across the Surf Coast, and 4-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula and winds look great for all spots through the day. An early N'ly breeze will favour the beaches, tending NW through the morning and then W/NW into the afternoon, though the swell will become small on the Surf Coast.

Of greater importance are our larger swells due into next week, and we're now expected to see two distinct long-period swells.

The first swell for Monday afternoon has been brought forward with a deep and powerful polar low forming around the Heard Island region mid-week. It's currently generating a great fetch of severe-gale to sometimes storm-force W/SW winds through our far swell window south-west of WA.

The low will keep its strength while projecting slowly east-northeast towards us, broadening in scope south of WA and SA through tomorrow before moving east towards us Sunday.

This will generate a large long-period W/SW groundswell for Monday, building through the day and really strengthening into the mid-late afternoon.

The Surf Coast should build from 3-5ft through the morning and 6ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula to an easy 6ft and 8ft+ respectively into the late afternoon along with great offshore NW-W/NW winds holding all day.

The secondary stronger front is still on track, with it piggy-backing on top of the first system and producing an additional storm-force W/SW fetch over an active sea state, producing an even larger longer-period W/SW groundswell for Tuesday.

There's been no real change to the expected sized with the Surf Coast due to peak around 8ft on the swell magnets (if not for the odd bigger cleanup) and 10-12ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Winds still look less than ideal but workable in protected spots in the wake of the secondary system pushing through Tuesday, with a moderate to fresh W/SW-SW breeze due across most breaks, likely W/NW early for a period on the Surf Coast.

Wednesday looks dicey as the swell eases and a high moves in from the west, bringing S/SW-S winds, with an outside chance of an early W'ly around Torquay (we'll review this Monday).

The surf will continue to ease into the end of the week with possible lingering onshore winds Thursday, clean on the beaches Friday but small. Therefore make the most of the coming days of waves! Have a great weekend.