thermalben

Batten down the Vicco hatches

Victorian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 22nd March)

Best Days: Sat/Sun: fun surf open beaches, best in the mornings. Mon/Tues: very large swell though very windy. Wed/Thurs: rapidly easing, but clean with light winds. Fri: moderate new swell with N'ly winds. Next weekend: another solid swell. 

Recap: Small leftover swells and SE winds favoured the open beaches east of Melbourne on Thursday, with winds tending more E’ly this morning and offering much better conditions. It’s been very small and uninteresting west of Melbourne until this afternoon, when the leading edge of a new groundswell started to push through (see image below from 13th Beach, where sets are 3ft+). The sets are inconsistent and there’s an E’ly wobble on it but the energy is strong. Surf size is a little smaller west from Torquay. 

New swell pushing into 13th Beach this afternoon 

This weekend (Mar 23 - 24)

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

*this week's Forecaster Notes will be occasionally brief and erratic, as Craig is on annual leave - to receive notification when they’re updated, please update your account preferences*

This afternoon’s new swell will ease slowly through Saturday, so make the most of the early session for the most size.

We’re likely to see slow, inconsistent 2-3ft sets across the Surf Coast (mainly open beaches) with larger 4-5ft+ waves east of Melbourne. Expect wave heights to lose a foot or so throughout the day.



A shallow front will cross the coast in the afternoon, bringing a gusty westerly change to most coasts, but we’ll see NE winds through the morning and relatively clean conditions across most beach breaks. 

A series of fronts pushing through the Bight right now (preceding a more significant low pressure system over the weekend) will generate some small to moderate W/SW swell but it’s not likely to arrive until very late Sunday. As such, we’re looking at small, residual swells in the 1-2ft range west of Melbourne (3-4ft east of Melbourne) with a possible late kick.

Conditions should be clean with mainly variable conditions under a weak pressure gradient (likely some form of N’ly). So, hit up the open beaches. 

Next week (Mar 25 onwards)

A complex series of powerful lows will develop south of the continent over the weekend, migrating through our near swell window into the start of next week and delivering a period of very large, windy surf for the state. 

Monday morning will see early W/NW gales with the low sitting west of Tasmania (with likely core winds of 50kts+ within our swell swell window, see below), so whilst we are likely to see an initial period of relatively ‘undersized’ conditions early morning - being smaller W/SW swell from the earlier fronts - we’ll see a rapid size increase through the day as the low transits across Victorian longitudes and swings the wind to the west.

Strong to gale force W/SW tending SW winds are likely Tuesday as the front and low clears to the east.

How big? It’s all academic as conditions will be more victory-at-sea than anything as it reaches a peak but stormy 8ft+ sets are likely in Torquay, pushing 10-12ft across the exposed beaches east of Melbourne. Obviously, this means sheltered corners and coves will be your best option. 

Ordinarily, these kinds of weather progressions can lead to temporary windows of early W/NW winds in Torquay and whilst this is possible for a brief period on Tuesday, I don’t think it’ll be enough to iron out the bumps from Monday’s squally change. And with early morning likely to be of a similar size to late Monday (albeit easing steadily, perhaps 6-8ft+ in Torquay easing to 4-6ft during the day), protected locations everywhere will once again be your best option. 

Looking further ahead, and steadily easing conditions on Wednesday and early Thursday with mainly light winds will precede a moderate bump in new WSW swell late Thursday and into Friday, from a modest series of fronts well SW of WA earlier in the week. 

In fact, a stronger frontal progression much closer to Victorian longitudes on Thursday (below the continent) will generate a bigger, better groundswell for next weekend, that could push the Surf Coast back up into the 6ft range. But more on that in Monday’s update. 

Have a great weekend!

Comments

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Friday, 22 Mar 2019 at 3:19pm

Nice groundswell lines pushing through with the new swell.

stylemaster1970's picture
stylemaster1970's picture
stylemaster1970 commented Friday, 22 Mar 2019 at 3:28pm

Just what you need to hear when you are picking up a new board on Sat!

If you argue with a fool long enough you will loose sight of who the fool really is........

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Friday, 22 Mar 2019 at 4:12pm

Nice! What did you get?

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Friday, 22 Mar 2019 at 4:11pm

Yes there were a few nice pyramidal peaks out there and I thought it had built. A great week to clean up the back yard, now time to howl into the wind and summon the biggest storm possible.

singkenken's picture
singkenken's picture
singkenken commented Friday, 22 Mar 2019 at 5:14pm

I got a brand new 9'6" Greg Brown to launch. Its been curing for about 2 1/2 weeks now in the Dining room, and I reckon shes ready for squirt in the upcoming waves. See -a couple of weeks of Soueasters & crap swell are good for something !. Yowza.

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Saturday, 23 Mar 2019 at 3:08pm

Jesus! A 9'6"..... that's a massive board. There's absolutely no way I could duck dive that thing and actually get through the bowl shorey on a massive day, you'd have to time your run at it, I assume, it's one of brownies logs for riding posso's, TQ point, roadknight or something?

singkenken's picture
singkenken's picture
singkenken commented Monday, 25 Mar 2019 at 4:12pm

Very astute Mr G, but I will be looking forward to taking it out at the bowl when conditions permit. I have surfed 9ft + boards at Bells with very successful results over the years. It went pretty well at Boings (13th) on Sat morn', but the banks were very demanding, and a lot of closeouts. Surfed it Sun' at Possos with a high aspect centre fin & performed well above expectations!. Looking forward to getting it really dialled - in , and have lots of fun.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Saturday, 23 Mar 2019 at 8:08am

The beachies were cooking at dawn, and they're still looking pretty good now.

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref commented Saturday, 23 Mar 2019 at 1:58pm

Pumping on the MP this morning. Nice to finally get decent winds at the same time as a solid swell.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Saturday, 23 Mar 2019 at 2:04pm

crazy weather

I am the bone

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Saturday, 23 Mar 2019 at 2:06pm

crazy weather

I am the bone

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Saturday, 23 Mar 2019 at 3:27pm

Nick how did you like the week of easterlies?

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Saturday, 23 Mar 2019 at 4:06pm

*south easterlies

perhaps if you had a day off towards the end the of the week otherwise it was just moderate-fresh SE 95% of the time with 2-3ft swell, nothing to rave about at all.

Today bucked the trend.

I am the bone

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref commented Saturday, 23 Mar 2019 at 5:46pm

Was crazy colours this morning. The sky was purple at one stage.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Saturday, 23 Mar 2019 at 7:30pm

Pumping this morning. Epic sky too

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Sunday, 24 Mar 2019 at 7:09pm

Cape Otway and South Channel have doing completely different things. Is that just respective locations conforming too different local characteristics?

I don’t see how C.O and be light and swinging round the clock while it’s 30 knot North here.

I am the bone

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Sunday, 24 Mar 2019 at 7:24pm

Change hasn’t reached here yet, hits Otway first?

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Sunday, 24 Mar 2019 at 8:50pm
pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog commented Sunday, 24 Mar 2019 at 9:18pm

you can see the change on the satellite image quite easily boner....just scrubbing the west coast of vic now
http://satview.bom.gov.au/
and i guess its unstable weather near otways on the radar currently

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog commented Sunday, 24 Mar 2019 at 9:21pm

use this for current wind data boner its not 1993 anymore. but dont use it for forcast its average.
https://www.seabreeze.com.au/weather/wind-forecast/melbourne

mitchvg's picture
mitchvg's picture
mitchvg commented Monday, 25 Mar 2019 at 12:31am

Boner you can check the doppler wind too, on the BOM radar. I just did, looked patchy, but the radar "site information" says it's well setup.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Monday, 25 Mar 2019 at 8:04am

Was a pre-frontal trough. 

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog commented Sunday, 24 Mar 2019 at 9:09pm

was wierd how they had a cold front over west victoria on the 5am mlsp map this morning.

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog commented Sunday, 24 Mar 2019 at 9:10pm
pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog commented Sunday, 24 Mar 2019 at 9:11pm

i honestly think the swedish chefs from the muppets report weather for the bom sometimes.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Monday, 25 Mar 2019 at 7:23am

Ummmm. Sorell.

I am the bone

willibutler's picture
willibutler's picture
willibutler commented Monday, 25 Mar 2019 at 7:58am

Cape sorrel is spiking like crazy

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref commented Monday, 25 Mar 2019 at 9:38am

What a spike! Swell will be marching in today.

The green wall's picture
The green wall's picture
The green wall commented Monday, 25 Mar 2019 at 4:40pm

Hey Swell Net crew, update in Victorian notes as yet?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Monday, 25 Mar 2019 at 5:02pm

As per the message as the top:

*this week's Forecaster Notes will be occasionally brief and erratic, as Craig is on annual leave - to receive notification when they’re updated, please update your account preferences*

They'll be up around 6:30pm tonight.

The green wall's picture
The green wall's picture
The green wall commented Monday, 25 Mar 2019 at 5:15pm

Thanks Ben. Don't undersell youresef though, your notes have been comprehensive and timely in Craig's absence!