Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 12th December)

Best Days: Both coasts early tomorrow morning, both coasts through the day Friday and Saturday, Surf Coast early Monday

Recap

The surf hung in around 2-3ft across Surf Coast magnets yesterday morning with workable weak onshore winds, 3-4ft and bumpy to the east. A slight kick in size was seen through the afternoon but with average conditions under fresher sea breezes.

Today the surf is a touch smaller but hanging in at 2ft on the Surf Coast and 3ft to occasionally 4ft to the east with much cleaner conditions on the beaches. Winds look like they'll remain favourable all day and we should see some new swell starting to show later this afternoon, providing fun waves for the late session.

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This week and weekend (Nov 13 - 16)

The swell due later today should perk wave heights up to 2ft+ by dark on the Surf Coast and 4ft+ to the east along with favourable winds, peaking tomorrow morning. The swell impacted WA later yesterday and this morning, coming in on forecast, and when it peaks across our region we should see infrequent but good 3ft waves on the Surf Coast, with 4-5ft sets to the east.

Winds are looking favourable for both coasts early-mid morning tomorrow with a variable tending NW breeze on the Surf Coast, and N'ly tending variable winds on the Mornington Peninsula before a SW change starts moving through mid-late morning though without too much strength.

Now, our broad and dynamic mid-latitude low that's expected to form across the state tomorrow and stall across inland NSW through most of the weekend is still on track, and its positioning is now looking more favourable for us in terms of local winds.

Into Thursday evening and Friday morning a fetch of strong to gale-force E/SE winds will be generated through south-eastern Bass Strait.

The southern axis of the low will shift south through the morning though and this will result in winds tending variable and likely northerly from early-mid morning and remaining so most of the day. This trend may be a little slower across the Mornington Peninsula and more so Phillip Island.

Swell wise, we'll see Thursday's swell easing back from 2-3ft on the Surf Coast but a new SE windswell is due to build to 3-4ft through the day. The Mornington Peninsula looks to offer a mix of swells to 3-5ft.

With the SE windswell and variable winds, there should be some fun funky waves on offer across both regions through the day.

Saturday will see the low weaken while remaining just south enough to create variable winds and conditions again during the day.

We'll see the SE windswell easing though from 3ft to maybe 4ft early on the Surf Coast and 3ft on the Mornington Peninsula, small to tiny Sunday as winds revert back to the N-N/NW.

Our new long-period W/SW groundswell due later in the day ahead of a peak Monday is still on track, with the storm forming already around the Heard Island region.

We're seeing a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds, with the low expected to broaden slightly while weakening a touch to the south-west of WA, breaking down once south of the state.

An inconsistent but good W/SW groundswell should be generated, building later Sunday to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast swell magnets and 3-5ft to the east, peaking Monday to 3-4ft and 5-6ft respectively. Winds look dicey and onshore from the SW, but likely early W/NW around Torquay. More on this Friday.