A tropical depression between Vanuatu and New Caledonia has formed a tropical cyclone (TC Tam) and is racing south-eastwards at 23kts, where it is expected to merge with another tropical low SW of New Caledonia. After a binary interaction between the two systems, the merged low transitions into a storm force sub-tropical low which tracks SW into the Northern Tasman.

New swell due for the weekend, with a good, long-range swell for next week.

Certainly by Wed into Thurs the synoptic chart should look insane with a deep low (970-980hPa) retrograding into the Tasman, positioned inside the North island with plenty of space for severe gale to low end storm force winds to be aimed up at the east coast.

We’ve got a very dynamic week ahead, anchored by very strong high pressure moving into the far-southern Tasman and acting as anvil for a deep low which is expected to form in the tropical South Pacific between New Caledonia and Vanuatu o/night into tomorrow before drifting SW into the Tasman as a deep, extra-tropical low pressure system. This system intensifies through the week and is now expected to generate a large E’ly quadrant swell for the Eastern Seaboard heading into and over the Easter weekend.