Wednesday morning the pick of the week

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 26th October)

Best Days: Wednesday morning both coasts, Friday morning east of Melbourne and Saturday east of Melbourne, both coasts Sunday morning


Good fun clean 2-3ft waves on the Surf Coast with 4-6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula Saturday, while Sunday's tricky pulse of S/SW groundswell came in strong with solid 3ft waves across exposed breaks on the Surf Coast again with 4-6ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula. Conditions were clean across both coasts for most of yesterday before a late W'ly change on the Mornington Peninsula.

Today onshore winds and a smaller leftover swell are creating poor conditions, with no recommendations for a surf.

This week (Oct 27 – 30)

Tomorrow is still on track to see a strong pulse of S/SW groundswell but with strong and limiting E/SE winds.

Over the last couple of days, a vigorous polar frontal system has been aiming a fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds through our swell window, with a front shedding off the system pushing in today and bringing these onshore winds.

The groundswell should fill in tomorrow, peaking through the morning to a strong 3-5ft on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula but with those pesky and strong E/SE winds. These winds will also kick up moderate amounts of junky E/SE windswell for the Surf Coast, further spoiling conditions.

Variable winds mentioned last Friday for Wednesday are still on the cards with light local offshores likely to develop as the swell eases from the 3ft range on the Surf Coast and 6ft on the Mornington Peninsula. There'll probably be lots of lump and peakiness to the surf though from overnight onshores, and easing E/SE windswell. Onshores are due into the afternoon, so make the most of it before lunch.

A strong new S/SW groundswell due into Thursday has been downgraded a bit, but the poor winds are still on the cards, with a building ridge of high pressure moving in from the west due to aim S/SE winds into the coast.

Size wise the groundswell will be from a less than favourable but strong fetch of W/NW gales, with the Surf Coast expected to kick to 2-3ft through the day with 4-6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

A drop from a similar size is then due Friday and winds are a still a little unsure but we're likely to see fresh and gusty E'ly tending E/SE breezes.

This weekend onwards (Oct 31 onwards)

Saturday will see much cleaner conditions across the Mornington Peninsula and beaches on the Surf Coast as winds swing fresh NE. Early the surf is expected to be small and to 1-2ft on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft on the Mornington Peninsula, but an afternoon kick in long-range and increasing SW groundswell is due.

The source of this swell will be another pre-frontal fetch of W/NW winds at polar latitudes, to the south-west of WA. Exposed breaks on the Surf Coast should kick to 2-3ft through the afternoon with 4-5ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula, easing back through Sunday. Early conditions should be clean across both coasts with local offshores, before a weak SW change moves through. More on this Wednesday though.


willibutler's picture
willibutler's picture
willibutler Monday, 26 Oct 2015 at 11:56am

What's Monday and Tuesday next week looking like at this stage

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 26 Oct 2015 at 12:00pm

A bit tricky, but likely onshore with a mix of new swells.

superfish's picture
superfish's picture
superfish Monday, 26 Oct 2015 at 12:41pm

Hey Craig, thanks heaps for the notes.
With the next two forecaster notes (particularly Friday), could you please give an indication if the onshore front will move through SW vicco before dawn on Sunday morning? A lot of the models I have found are saying that it will ... what do you reckon? Also do you reckon there'll be offshores Tueday night (surfcoast) ? I know you said it'll be pretty lumpy in the morning but I'm assuming that's cus you said they'd be light ...
Cheers, hope you got some fun waves over the weekend

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 26 Oct 2015 at 12:45pm

Will do, and no, not offshore for Surf Coast or MP overnight Tuesday, just easing onshores tending variable hence the lumpiness.