Fun period ahead for the Surf Coast

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 12th August)

Best Days: Later tomorrow Surf Coast, Friday Surf Coast, Saturday both coasts, Sunday Surf Coast


Fun clean waves across the Surf Coast to 2-3ft yesterday with improving conditions on the Mornington Peninsula as morning N/NW winds swung more N'ly through the day.

Today we're in between swells with inconsistent and clean 1-2ft leftovers on the Surf Coast and clean 4ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula.

This week and weekend (Aug 13 - 16)

Our better pulse of W/SW groundswell for tomorrow (compared to Tuesday's) is still on track, with the swell being generated by a vigorous front pushing up towards WA and then through the Bight the last few days.

A reinforcing SW groundswell due for Friday has been brought forward to later tomorrow afternoon, with the polar front generating it racing up and towards us today.

The W/SW groundswell should offer inconsistent 3ft sets at exposed breaks on the Surf Coast tomorrow, with an afternoon kick to 3-4ft with the new SW swell. The Mornington Peninsula should see 6ft sets, bumping to 6ft+ later in the day.

Winds will however be an issue with an SW change due to push through around 7am, with W/NW winds before this. The change will be shallow though, and another approaching front pushing in from the west should tip winds back to the W/NW later in the day, so an evening wave on the Surf Coast could be an option.

Friday should see the swells easing from 3ft on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula with NW tending W'ly winds.

Our strong SW groundswell due over the weekend is also still on track, with a broad and vigorous polar frontal progression producing a fetch of pre-frontal W/NW and then post-frontal W/SW gales while moving under the country today through Friday.

A moderate to large SW groundswell will result, building through Saturday from 3ft on the Surf Coast during the morning to the 4ft range into the mid-late afternoon and 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

A drop in size is then due Sunday from 3-4ft and 6ft+ respectively, smaller into Monday morning.

Conditions are looking great for both coasts with variable breezes Saturday and then N/NW tending light variable NW winds on Sunday (possibly holding from the N/NW all day east of Melbourne).

Next week onwards (Aug 17 onwards)

Early Monday will start slow, but a good new S/SW groundswell is due to build through the afternoon from a strengthening polar front pushing up towards us through Saturday evening and Sunday.

The Surf Coast should kick back to 3-4ft+ later in the afternoon with 6ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula but with onshore SW winds associated with the frontal system. Tuesday looks dicey as the swell eases with S'ly breezes, but we'll confirm this Friday.


willibutler's picture
willibutler's picture
willibutler Wednesday, 12 Aug 2015 at 12:39pm

Hi where is the point that is taken photos of Dali
Y on the Phillip Island daily report

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 12 Aug 2015 at 12:45pm

Usually Surfies Point.

Blackdog's picture
Blackdog's picture
Blackdog Thursday, 13 Aug 2015 at 12:55am

Rhill. Some times Cowes