Smaller week with favourable winds for exposed spots

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 6th July)

Best Days: Both coasts tomorrow, east of Melbourne Wednesday and Thursday, both coasts Friday and Saturday


What another excellent weekend of waves west of Melbourne. Saturday we fell in between swells with good clean waves around the 3ft range under offshores, while the Mornington Peninsula was a bumpy 5-6ft.

A strong new S/SW groundswell filled in Sunday with 4-5ft waves across most spots and 6ft sets at Bells and Winki, while the Mornington Peninsula was a clean and large 6-8ft. Winds were favourable all day again, if not a touch north at times for selected reefs on the Surf Coast.

Today the swell was easing from a clean 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and a good 6ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula.

This week (Jul 7 – 10)

The coming week isn't as good as the recent run of swell, with the surf due to become smaller and less consistent, while also falling victim to less favourable winds from the north-eastern quadrant, favouring locations east of Melbourne.

Tomorrow will be good across the beaches on both coasts, with an easing 2-3ft of swell on the Surf Coast under N'ly tending E/NE and then E/SE winds, while the Mornington Peninsula should ease from 4-6ft.

Wednesday will only be decent east of Melbourne under persistent N/NE winds with an easing 3-4ft of swell. Head to the Surf Coast beaches for small clean waves early.

A low point in swell activity is due later Wednesday/early Thursday and fresh N'ly winds will again favour exposed breaks for those looking for a surf.

Later Thursday a very inconsistent W/SW groundswell is due, generated in our far swell window in the Indian Ocean. This will be mixed in with a late arriving and better medium-range W/SW groundswell generated by a relatively weak frontal system passing under WA.

The Surf Coast should build to an inconsistent 2ft+ later in the day Thursday under those N'ly winds, with very infrequent 3-5ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

Friday morning should reveal the most size to a very inconsistent 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula with fresh N/NW winds (N'ly for most of the day east of Melbourne).

This weekend onwards (Jul 11 onwards)

Into Saturday a small lift in W/SW groundswell is due, from a pre-frontal fetch of W/NW gales moving in from the south-west of WA during the middle of this week. This should kick the Surf Coast back to 2-3ft Saturday morning with 4-6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula, with a stronger increase W/SW swell possible later in the day, peaking Sunday.

This will be generated by a better aligned and stronger polar frontal system firing up south-west of WA, pushing north-east while generating a fetch of SW gales. The track won't be ideal but we should still see a moderate sized W/SW groundswell created, peaking Sunday morning to 3-5ft on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Unfortunately an onshore change associated with the swell producing front is due overnight Saturday, leaving strong but easing SW winds into Sunday. There's a chance for an early W'ly around Torquay, but we'll review this Wednesday.


Nick.F's picture
Nick.F's picture
Nick.F commented Monday, 6 Jul 2015 at 6:10pm

Hi Craig,
Why do you have the Mornington peninsula area being 4-6ft Tuesday and 3-4ft Wednesday and the " surf forecast" has Tuesday being 4ft in the morning and easing through the day and Wednesday being 2-3ft. Is it underforcasting the size


Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 6 Jul 2015 at 8:52pm

Yeah I think the model is under-forecasting the size a little.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2015 at 10:37am

Ah, forget we're looking at an easing S/SW swell, hence the size difference between the Surf Coast and MP will be less.

So I'd have changed that to easing 3-5ft today and 3ft tomorrow morning on the sets (in line with model forecasts).

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2015 at 5:27pm

Victorias Mundaka : Ed Sloane instagram,

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2015 at 5:45pm

Yeah incredible hey!

shaun's picture
shaun's picture
shaun commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2015 at 7:12pm

Yeah, sands back. The mystical Bulkos.

I'm the scab you keep picking off and is there again the next day.

southey's picture
southey's picture
southey commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2015 at 9:55pm

Smoke and mirrors .
Fair is foul and foul is fair .
Good from far ..........

" SA's Reserve Capacity "

crustt's picture
crustt's picture
crustt commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2015 at 6:58am

Haha, Ding Alley has never looked better.


vicco doing its best w.a impersonation ever

A photo posted by Ed Sloane Photography (@edsloanephoto) on