Large swell with dicey winds Saturday, clean and easing into Sunday/Monday

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 19th June)

Best Days: Possibly Saturday morning, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday exposed breaks, Wednesday, Thursday morning Surf Coast

Recap

Poor conditions yesterday with a mix of swells, while today at dawn the surf remained average across all spots with a moderate onshore wind, but this has since tended variable across both regions, as hinted at was a possibility Wednesday, resulting in cleaner but still less than ideal conditions with a small easing swell.

This weekend and next week (Jun 18 – 26)

Our large and inconsistent SW groundswell due to peak tomorrow morning is still on track, with the polar low generating this currently pushing under Tassie and out of our swell window.

This swell should offer strong but inconsistent 5-6ft sets across the Surf Coast with the possibility of the rare bigger bomb at times, with 8ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula. A drop in size is due through the afternoon and then further from 3-4ft and 6ft to possibly 8ft respectively Sunday morning.

A reinforcing S/SW groundswell for Sunday afternoon is due, with it being brought forward a touch, produced by a secondary smaller polar low racing in behind the initial low today and tomorrow morning. This should keep 3ft+ sets hitting the Surf Coast and 6ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula Sunday afternoon before easing steadily from 2-3ft and 4-6ft respectively Monday.

Winds tomorrow morning are looking a little dicey now with a lingering onshore likely across all regions, but there's still the chance for variable breezes during the morning, with GFS still forecasting this. Your best bet will be keeping an eye on the local observations before hitting the road, and watching them through the morning.

Sunday should be clean and straight across the Mornington Peninsula and best on the beaches west of Melbourne with a light N/NE wind, freshening through the day. This should be straighter N'ly at times on the Surf Coast.

Come Monday, stronger local offshores are due all day, with the morning providing the most size.

Tuesday will be surfable across exposed spots with the swell bottoming out under strong N/NE winds.

A new inconsistent SW groundswell is due into Wednesday, generated by a strong but weakening polar low pushing in from the west during this weekend.The structure of this system has changed, with a front shedding off it now due to form a stalling cut-off low in the Bight.

This will result in more favourable winds but smaller amounts of swell. The swell is due to build Wednesday and reach and inconsistent 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula under fresh N/NE winds. This will favour the beaches across both coasts.

As the swell eases we may see winds tend NW for the Surf Coast, but this is a little too hard to pick at this stage as the models are still trying to resolve the cut-off lows movements.

Longer term, we're due to see some very inconsistent but strong levels of W/SW groundswell from one of the strongest polar frontal progressions firing up in the Indian Ocean so far this year.

All the activity will be in our far western swell window which isn't ideal, but the progression as a whole is due to push towards and under WA while weakening later next week, helping to overcome this slightly.

We should see at least moderate amounts of inconsistent W/SW groundswell peaking through next weekend, but we'll have a closer look at this on Monday. Have a great weekend!

Comments

Nick.F's picture
Nick.F's picture
Nick.F Friday, 19 Jun 2015 at 12:48pm

Hi Craig,
Is the swell going to hold through the day on Monday on the surf coast? Will it stay at 2-3ft all day? And what is the size looking like on Tuesday for surf coast and Mornington which coast is looking better for Tuesday

Cheers nick

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Friday, 19 Jun 2015 at 1:44pm

Nick do you even bother reading the forecasts or just go straight to here and ask a series of questions that's would drive Craig insane?

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Friday, 19 Jun 2015 at 1:45pm

Every time

Tabby10's picture
Tabby10's picture
Tabby10 Friday, 19 Jun 2015 at 2:23pm

Second that

Nick.F's picture
Nick.F's picture
Nick.F Friday, 19 Jun 2015 at 2:25pm

Um goofyfoot he didn't say what the size would be on Tuesday so I was asking him how big it would be on Tuesday which is a pretty good question as I was hoping to go on Tuesday so you can chill out as it is not a stupid question and of course I read it you potato

Nick.F's picture
Nick.F's picture
Nick.F Friday, 19 Jun 2015 at 2:28pm

Craig's forecast notes are awesome they give so much information but I don't see the problem with not asking questions that's why there is a comment section

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 19 Jun 2015 at 2:28pm

Seems like you're trolling Nick, hence the lack of reply. Notes clearly explain the trend Monday and Tuesday will likely only be 1-2ft or so on the Mornington Peninsula.

longboarder420's picture
longboarder420's picture
longboarder420 Friday, 19 Jun 2015 at 2:33pm

How about we get up at 4am Every morning like I do and travel over 45 minutes just to check the surf , Ive done this for the last 10 years, these kinda sites have ruined the real aspect of surfing, I Dont think the pass would be crowded if EVERYONE didnt know that there was a clean wave their !

Nick.F's picture
Nick.F's picture
Nick.F Friday, 19 Jun 2015 at 2:38pm

I am being deadset I live in Melbourne so I can't just go down and just check out the surf longboarder420 so I just wanted to no what the swell was like for Tuesday as Craig just said it was "bottoming out"

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Friday, 19 Jun 2015 at 3:20pm

Stay in Melbourne

longboarder420's picture
longboarder420's picture
longboarder420 Friday, 19 Jun 2015 at 2:42pm

Its all about money ! Im sure swellnet Knows this

longboarder420's picture
longboarder420's picture
longboarder420 Friday, 19 Jun 2015 at 2:45pm

as I said I TRAVEL 45 minutes before i know If theres waves or not , Thats how it should it be ... not everyone rocking up when its good , If i surf slop all week when no ones out and as soon as it turns good 50 people rock up thanks to swellnet , ILL BE doing lots of drop ins dont you worry , LOL

longboarder420's picture
longboarder420's picture
longboarder420 Friday, 19 Jun 2015 at 2:45pm

no computer at home , Only at work where i am now lol

suckin-sand's picture
suckin-sand's picture
suckin-sand Friday, 19 Jun 2015 at 3:42pm

Longboarder what are you doing here then? Get back to the sixties where you belong.
Or ride a horse to the beach. Cars are cheating. Much less crowd back then in the 1800s. Chill dude. It's another tool.

Nick.F's picture
Nick.F's picture
Nick.F Friday, 19 Jun 2015 at 3:49pm

Long boarder420 I am still in high school in Melbourne so I don't have the opportunity to wake up at 4.45 and check the surf everyday I only get to go on public holdays and school holidays so I only have limited days to go down the coast so I want to go on the best days so I should be able to ask questions about the up coming days and what the conditions will be like without getting judged by you

Nick.F's picture
Nick.F's picture
Nick.F Friday, 19 Jun 2015 at 3:53pm

Goofyfoot I like surfing so I think I might go down the coast sometimes and surf not just stay in Melbourne if that's all right with you my questions were good questions so why don't you chill out and keep taking your simmer pills because you really need to simmer down

carpetman's picture
carpetman's picture
carpetman Friday, 19 Jun 2015 at 4:07pm

Simmer up, please, Goofy.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Friday, 19 Jun 2015 at 4:25pm

Sorry nick, I've de-simmered. I didn't realise you were still in school.. Just need to tone down the questions a bit mate, not just today but it's every update. You can normally get a great idea of what's happening with the waves through reading Craig's notes and then checking wind/swell forecasts and real time observations.. Even if you get there and it's not absolutely perfect it doesn't matter, your still getting in the water.. Have a good weekend

mackdog's picture
mackdog's picture
mackdog Friday, 19 Jun 2015 at 4:31pm

Nick F. Shouldn't you be in school on a Tuesday??
If you keep asking questions when the answer is staring you in the face in Craig's report I reckon maybe you could do with more time in the classroom.

Nick.F's picture
Nick.F's picture
Nick.F Friday, 19 Jun 2015 at 4:38pm

I finished school today mackdog and I am off for 3 weeks so I am keen to get down as I am on holidays. My questions actually weren't staring me in the face as Craig just said Tuesday was "bottoming out" so I was curious to no the Size if that's alright with you. And i asked about Monday to see what the size was going to be like in the afternoon so maybe you should just chill out

Nick.F's picture
Nick.F's picture
Nick.F Friday, 19 Jun 2015 at 4:41pm

Yeah thats alright goofy I check heaps of websites with the winds and swell and it looks like most websites have different ideas of what the size will be like so I was just asking what he thought Tuesday size would be like but I get your point so I won't ask as many questions and will just go off what his says in the forecast notes
Cheers

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Friday, 19 Jun 2015 at 4:45pm

I've found this site to be the most accurate by far, and even the model forecast graphs are close to within a foot or two usually.

Nick.F's picture
Nick.F's picture
Nick.F Friday, 19 Jun 2015 at 4:48pm

Yeah swellnet is a great site i love it

willibutler's picture
willibutler's picture
willibutler Friday, 19 Jun 2015 at 8:19pm

Y have the reports changed so much wasn't it supposed to be big and windy on Tuesday and clean offshore on the west coast on Saturday

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 19 Jun 2015 at 8:26pm

Saturday was always variable winds Will and it's just gone a little the wrong way. Next week there was forecast to be a strong front pushing through but now it's a stalling cut-off low, resulting in better winds when that new swell arrives Wednesday (but with less size). 

willibutler's picture
willibutler's picture
willibutler Friday, 19 Jun 2015 at 8:20pm

What are the chances of it being offshore tommorow at this stage

southey's picture
southey's picture
southey Friday, 19 Jun 2015 at 10:10pm

wb ,
BOM obs are your best friend not Craig . If you know where to look all obs are on the one page .

And the forecast changed because I paid Craig more cash than all you guys combined . So now you think it's gonna be shit , and I'll get one or two alone !;-)

willibutler's picture
willibutler's picture
willibutler Friday, 19 Jun 2015 at 8:30pm

Thank you for replying so late. But do you think it is worth a grovel anywhere tommorow or will it be a write off.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 19 Jun 2015 at 9:07pm

Yeah for sure there'll be waves around worth getting into. It's not a 20-30kt onshore. Just head down with low expectations and you should have fun. 

willibutler's picture
willibutler's picture
willibutler Friday, 19 Jun 2015 at 9:03pm

??

puddingboy's picture
puddingboy's picture
puddingboy Saturday, 20 Jun 2015 at 5:50pm

Surf surf surf tomorrow surf YAY!

jezza64's picture
jezza64's picture
jezza64 Sunday, 21 Jun 2015 at 8:02pm

Hi Craig, after the shenanigans above, thought I would let you know that your forecast was spot on.
Saturday saw some solid swell hitting Bells, TBR running their comp......saw a low tide set pretty much close out from the Bowl to the Button. Tail between my legs back east, but the swell was real wonky. Still fun with minimal crowd and stayed offshore/glassy until the arvo.
Today was also spot on. Hit Bells around 10, solid well overhead on the sets until about 12 when it really lulled out.
Swell looked to pick up from about 1:30 - 2 and was solid at 13th around 3 when I hit the road home.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Sunday, 21 Jun 2015 at 9:25pm

Awesome, great to head Jezza, swell looked super inco but!

jezza64's picture
jezza64's picture
jezza64 Monday, 22 Jun 2015 at 8:54am

Yep, there was plenty of waiting around. Perfect conditions for impatience to drag you shore ward and leave you out of position for the sets and/or get cleaned up.

stu's picture
stu's picture
stu Monday, 22 Jun 2015 at 9:35am

Some of you guys are missing the point here, what Craig supplies is a forecast, not an iron clad guarantee of conditions.
You were spot on Saturday Craig, I passed Bells but didn't reach Lorne to surf a well known very visible spot from the GO road and scored uncrowded glassy 150m long waves with 5ft sets and between 5-10 guys.
Read the notes, apply your own knowledge and go search... P.S. have the pics to prove it.

shaun's picture
shaun's picture
shaun Monday, 22 Jun 2015 at 6:36pm

Don't need to do any research, you just did all for us.
See you there next time.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 22 Jun 2015 at 9:44am

Funny thing is winds were onshore throughout Torquay early morning (and across Barwon Heads) but the Aireys Inlet weather station was recording light NW winds. I wasn't able to get online during the afternoon but it seems local conditions improved a lot throughout Torquay from the early session.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 22 Jun 2015 at 9:56am

Cahill Bell-Warren said of Saturday on Instagram: "HELLS BELLS! Saturday's event was the [email protected] event I have ever been involved in. To see everyone from groms to old lads, boys and girls swinging hammers into 6-8ft + Bowl all day was inspiring!"

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 22 Jun 2015 at 9:59am

Thanks for all the feedback, good to hear the swell was there.

I was a little worried when some reports of only 3-4ft came in and the cams looked a little slow.

southey's picture
southey's picture
southey Monday, 22 Jun 2015 at 11:47am

Some places were offshore all night !! ;-)
13th was ultra light offshore early , but had only
been like that for a few hours so was still messed up .
Also saw one set quite early that was almost three times bigger than
Anything I saw for the first half of the day .
Literally lit up a reef I never knew existed . Was massive period swell .
Had a " conflict of opinion " with camel about the origins of this swell
Peak, especially the long period sneakers early on .
Any chance a run down of this swells mechanics . Craig . ?!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 22 Jun 2015 at 12:08pm

Very interesting, the polar low started actually in the Heard Island region, and this is where the strongest winds were produced, and periods (up to 55kts seen here).. and discussed in the notes here.

From then the low weakend and swung like a pendulum along the polar shelf, perfectly through Tassie's swell window while continuing to generate winds in the 35-45kt range.

southey's picture
southey's picture
southey Monday, 22 Jun 2015 at 12:44pm

Okay I was into something . The peak energy originated from a Westerly fetch ,
And then a captured scenario .

Blackdog's picture
Blackdog's picture
Blackdog Monday, 22 Jun 2015 at 1:21pm

it was .3m low tide in the morning. The bommie was almost sucking dry on some waves. the swell packed a bit of punch but this next swell might be a bit better

shaun's picture
shaun's picture
shaun Monday, 22 Jun 2015 at 12:22pm

Stu, I also surf a wave on the weekend with only 4 guys out, here are the gps co-ordinates *******-****.

Fuck me, I went there today and there were forty guys out, how could that have happened?

carpetman's picture
carpetman's picture
carpetman Monday, 22 Jun 2015 at 12:25pm

Why do people feel compelled to share stuff like that on the internet? Just seems plain dumbo the elephant.