Large swell with dicey winds Saturday, clean and easing into Sunday/Monday
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 19th June)
Best Days: Possibly Saturday morning, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday exposed breaks, Wednesday, Thursday morning Surf Coast
Poor conditions yesterday with a mix of swells, while today at dawn the surf remained average across all spots with a moderate onshore wind, but this has since tended variable across both regions, as hinted at was a possibility Wednesday, resulting in cleaner but still less than ideal conditions with a small easing swell.
This weekend and next week (Jun 18 – 26)
Our large and inconsistent SW groundswell due to peak tomorrow morning is still on track, with the polar low generating this currently pushing under Tassie and out of our swell window.
This swell should offer strong but inconsistent 5-6ft sets across the Surf Coast with the possibility of the rare bigger bomb at times, with 8ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula. A drop in size is due through the afternoon and then further from 3-4ft and 6ft to possibly 8ft respectively Sunday morning.
A reinforcing S/SW groundswell for Sunday afternoon is due, with it being brought forward a touch, produced by a secondary smaller polar low racing in behind the initial low today and tomorrow morning. This should keep 3ft+ sets hitting the Surf Coast and 6ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula Sunday afternoon before easing steadily from 2-3ft and 4-6ft respectively Monday.
Winds tomorrow morning are looking a little dicey now with a lingering onshore likely across all regions, but there's still the chance for variable breezes during the morning, with GFS still forecasting this. Your best bet will be keeping an eye on the local observations before hitting the road, and watching them through the morning.
Sunday should be clean and straight across the Mornington Peninsula and best on the beaches west of Melbourne with a light N/NE wind, freshening through the day. This should be straighter N'ly at times on the Surf Coast.
Come Monday, stronger local offshores are due all day, with the morning providing the most size.
Tuesday will be surfable across exposed spots with the swell bottoming out under strong N/NE winds.
A new inconsistent SW groundswell is due into Wednesday, generated by a strong but weakening polar low pushing in from the west during this weekend.The structure of this system has changed, with a front shedding off it now due to form a stalling cut-off low in the Bight.
This will result in more favourable winds but smaller amounts of swell. The swell is due to build Wednesday and reach and inconsistent 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula under fresh N/NE winds. This will favour the beaches across both coasts.
As the swell eases we may see winds tend NW for the Surf Coast, but this is a little too hard to pick at this stage as the models are still trying to resolve the cut-off lows movements.
Longer term, we're due to see some very inconsistent but strong levels of W/SW groundswell from one of the strongest polar frontal progressions firing up in the Indian Ocean so far this year.
All the activity will be in our far western swell window which isn't ideal, but the progression as a whole is due to push towards and under WA while weakening later next week, helping to overcome this slightly.
We should see at least moderate amounts of inconsistent W/SW groundswell peaking through next weekend, but we'll have a closer look at this on Monday. Have a great weekend!