Average end to the week, great weekend

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 17th June)

Best Days: Saturday, Sunday, Monday

Recap

Tiny poor waves yesterday morning across the Surf Coast before a slight lift in swell and better offshores creating fun 1-2ft surf into the afternoon. The Mornington Peninsula was around a clean 2-3ft and remained so into the afternoon while building a touch.

This morning the Surf Coast was clean again with a bit more swell than expected with 2-3ft sets reported around Torquay, while the Mornington Peninsula remained only in the small 3-4ft range. Make the most of this morning as a freshening onshore is due into the mid-late afternoon.

This week and weekend (Jun 18 – 21)

There's plenty of swell due into tomorrow with a strong long-range and inconsistent SW groundswell due to peak mixed in with a junky SE windswell.

Unfortunately conditions will be poor with a fresh and gusty E/SE wind across all locations.

Friday is still looking dicey with a lingering onshore S/SE'ly likely across all coasts, but the Torquay region may see an early variable breeze, although latest updates have lessened this chance. So I'd leave it.

Therefore our focus turns towards the weekend, and in short it's looking pretty damn fun!

The large and powerful SW groundswell due Saturday is still on track with the intense polar low generating the swell, already producing a fetch of storm-force W'ly winds in our far swell window, registered by satellite.

This polar low is continuing east while aiming a fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds through our swell window, generating a large and inconsistent SW groundswell for Saturday morning. Exposed spots on the Surf Coast should offer infrequent but strong 5-6ft sets with the possibility of the rare bigger bomb, with 8ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

A drop in size is due into the afternoon and then further Sunday.

Winds should ease and tend variable on Saturday morning and remain so all day, creating clean glassy conditions with some slight wobble/lump likely with no decent offshore wind.

Sunday should then offer straighter surf with a strengthening N/NW'ly, that should hold frm the N/NE to N'th all day east of Melbourne.

Next week onwards (Jun 22 onwards)

The weekend's swell will continue to ease into Monday but a new smaller and inconsistent SW groundswell is due to peak early morning.

This will be generated by a tight but intense polar low firing up on the tail of the broader system generating Saturday's swell, with a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds aimed through our swell window.

An inconsistent but good 3ft to possibly 4ft of swell is due at swell magnets on the Surf Coast dawn Monday with 5-6ft sets to the east under stronger N/NW winds ahead of an afternoon S/SW change.

This onshore change will be linked to a vigorous polar frontal progression and large SW groundswell for Tuesday, but unfortunately winds look to linger onshore in the wake of Monday's change.

The swell looks to come in around the 5-6ft range on the Surf Coast at this stage but with a fresh SW'ly. We may see winds tip back to the W/NW late in the day as another strong approaching front pushes in from the west, but we'll have to review this again on Friday.

Comments

Gary_G_Gherkin's picture
Gary_G_Gherkin's picture
Gary_G_Gherkin Wednesday, 17 Jun 2015 at 12:51pm

Hi Crag, how variable will the wind be on Friday?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 17 Jun 2015 at 1:03pm

Give it a miss, more likely moderate to fresh onshore rather than not.

Gary_G_Gherkin's picture
Gary_G_Gherkin's picture
Gary_G_Gherkin Wednesday, 17 Jun 2015 at 2:22pm

Thanks Crag. How long-range do you think the swell will be tomorrow?

Ralf's picture
Ralf's picture
Ralf Wednesday, 17 Jun 2015 at 1:49pm

Hey Craig,

Do you think that the wind would be ok for Point Impossible early Saturday? It looks like a fun wave to maybe surf if the wind is bit onshore for Winki and Bells?

Ralf

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 17 Jun 2015 at 1:55pm

Good wind for everywhere Saturday, light variable and likely very light offshore on the Surf Coast.

Ralf's picture
Ralf's picture
Ralf Wednesday, 17 Jun 2015 at 2:42pm

Yeeew!

How good has this year been considering every good day has been on weekend days. Perfect for the weekend warriors like me. Hope everyone gets good waves again this weekend.

Ralf

Blackdog's picture
Blackdog's picture
Blackdog Wednesday, 17 Jun 2015 at 2:39pm

hi Mr. Craig,
I know its a bit of a tricky forecast period, but why is the "surf forecast" for Saturday saying:
torquay 3-5ft @6am and 4ft for the rest of the day
barwon heads 3-5ft @6am, [email protected]:00 and 4ft6pm

and your saying: "Exposed spots on the Surf Coast should offer infrequent but strong 5-6ft sets with the possibility of the rare bigger bomb".

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 17 Jun 2015 at 2:47pm

Herein lies the value of the forecast notes.

For some reason our wave model is under-forecasting this swell event on Saturday. Maybe it's the extra distance from the low to Victoria shaving off some size, but this swell will be bigger than that 3-5ft forecast.

Also it's got the bar graph above 4, and that 3-5ft is just an automated bin, it's probably more in the 4-5ft range looking on the graph, but I'm still expecting inconsistent and strong 5-6ft sets.

willibutler's picture
willibutler's picture
willibutler Wednesday, 17 Jun 2015 at 3:07pm

Would Lorne have anything on Tuesday or westernport bay on a protected corner

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 17 Jun 2015 at 3:08pm

Yes and yes.

Blackdog's picture
Blackdog's picture
Blackdog Wednesday, 17 Jun 2015 at 3:54pm

sick! Cheers Mr Craig! Well worth caning my commitments for, and repairing the rounded pin tail for some "slightly Meaty A-frame action".

Nick.F's picture
Nick.F's picture
Nick.F Wednesday, 17 Jun 2015 at 6:04pm

Hi Craig,
I have had a look at sites like BOM and Surfline and it is currently looking like the winds for next Wednesday are southerly is it a bit far away to tell if that is true or do you think that Tuesday and Wednesday will be southerly?
If so is Thursday looking like it will change back to northerly winds

Cheers

mackdog's picture
mackdog's picture
mackdog Friday, 19 Jun 2015 at 11:26am

Looking like it's going to be onshore tomorrow for Vicco

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 19 Jun 2015 at 11:30am

Yeah, doing an update now and it's taken a slight turn for the worse. Possibly still variable if GFS gets its way.