Fun easing surf, small to tiny next week

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 10th June)

Best Days: Thursday through Sunday all coasts


After a pumping late session Monday with the arrival of a strong W/SW groundswell, a larger swell was seen into yesterday with favourable W/NW winds for protected locations on the Surf Coast. While not perfect there were still some quality and empty waves to be had before winds swung onshore around midday. The Mornington Peninsula was huge and out of control, with Western Port fairing the best.

Today the swell was still large and strong across both coasts but an early W'ly on the Surf Coast gave into the S/SW change on first light, leaving no decent options for a surf. The Mornington Peninsula was also a write-off and a big large mess.

This week and weekend (Jun 11 – 14)

From now into the end of the week, the swell will continue to ease as winds improve.

Tomorrow should be good across both coasts as winds tend variable and likely locally offshore, with an easing 3ft+ of swell on the Surf Coast and 6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

Come Friday smaller surf is due and variable winds are again expected, but with a bias to the NE, favouring the beaches east of Melbourne through the day, rather than the Surf Coast.

A slight kick in new SW groundswell is due into the late afternoon to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula, easing form a similar size through Saturday. This will be generated by a broad but less than favourably aligned fetch of W/NW and then W/SW gales tomorrow to our south-west.

Saturday looks excellent with light to moderate offshore winds across both regions with the fun easing swell (our model has more size midday Saturday but this isn't expected, with it combining a mix of swells incorrectly and over-forecasting it).

Sunday will be pretty small with easing infrequent 2ft sets at exposed breaks on the Surf Coast and better 3-5ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula under local offshore winds again.

Next week onwards (Jun 15 onwards)

Unfortunately, as talked about the last few updates, there's nothing significant at all on the cards for next week as an upper level blocking pattern moves in from the west (opposite to a strong node of the Long Wave Trough). This will effectively steer frontal activity away from us resulting in no considerable swell and poor winds.

This will result in tiny surf on the Surf Coast and small waves on the Mornington Peninsula with winds from the north-eastern quadrant.

The block doesn't look to break down until later in the month, but we'll continue to keep a close eye on this.