Tuesday east of Melbourne, Thursday onwards to the west

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 7th July)

Best Days: Tuesday, Thursday morning - Friday - Saturday morning west of Melbourne


A new pulse of W/SW swell filled in Saturday and came in as I expected with clean 2-3ft waves through the morning across the Surf Coast ahead of a peak through the day to a more consistent 3ft as winds held from the western quadrant.

A drop in size was seen through Sunday back to a smaller 2ft and conditions were again good around Torquay with a morning W/NW'ly.

Today the swell has persisted at an inconsistent 2ft across the Surf Coast and the Mornington Peninsula was starting to clean up with 4ft of swell and a light NW wind. Winds have since shifted more N'ly creating cleaner conditions east of Melbourne.

This week (Jul 7 – Jul 11)

A new W/SW groundswell is due into tomorrow across the coast, generated by some unfavourably aligned pre-frontal W/NW winds under the country the last couple of days.

This should just offer more consistent 2ft+ sets across the Surf Coast tomorrow, with 4-5ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula. Fresh to strong N'ly winds will favour the Surf Coast beaches and Mornington Peninsula ll day.

Come Wednesday the swell is expected to drop into the morning, but a late kick in new W/SW groundswell is due later in the day, but more so Thursday.

This swell, discussed last week is currently being generated by a vigorous polar front being steered up and into WA by a strong node of the Long Wave Trough.

A medium sized W/SW groundswell will be produced for our region, with a peak expected Thursday morning. There'll be an additional short-range W/SW swell in the mix through the day though as the frontal system responsible for the swell continues east through the Bight and across us Thursday, generating a fetch just on the periphery of our swell window.

Size wise, the Surf Coast should increase from 3-4ft during the morning, with 5ft sets possible into the afternoon, while the Mornington Peninsula is expected to reach 6-8ft through the day.

Winds will be best suited to the Surf Coast with a fresh morning W/NW'ly ahead of a shift to the W/SW during the afternoon while Friday looks good all day with a W/NW tending NW breeze and steadily easing swell. Get in early for the most size!

This weekend onwards (Jul 12 onwards)

As talked about the last few updates, the LWT will move across us into the end of the week, and this will focus the polar frontal activity more up towards us. With this we should see a polar front steered up towards us, all the way from the Heard Island region.

This system looks to lose strength while approaching us due to the weakening of the LWT as it passes by, but still a medium to large sized SW groundswell is expected to be produced, building through Saturday and peaking into the afternoon. The Surf Coast should reach 4-6ft with 6-8ft+ sets east of Melbourne.

Winds look average though as the front crosses the coast, with the Surf Coast offering an early W'ly before swinging fresh to strong SW through the day. Winds for Sunday are still up in the air with the models diverging on the presence of a secondary front, so check back here on Wednesday for more on this.