Very simple f/cast for our region this weekend so let’s not overthink it. Waves, waves and more waves on the Points with SE winds across the region.
A large 1031 hPa high straddling Tasmania ( no longer a peanut high) is extending a deep E’ly flow along the f/cast region. TC Fili has weakened and is drifting southwards to the SE now of New Caledonia, anchored by a long fetch of E’ly winds from the cradling high. That equals lots of East swell through the coming days, but we’ve still got some onshore winds to slog through.
Lots of surf this period though you'll still have to work the local winds. The weekend looks best for the South Coast but smallish.
Winds will remain an issue this period but they'll abate in strength opening up more windows of surf. There's plenty of swell inbound as well.
Generally favourable winds and swells from the south-east to west.
A strong low which passed through the Tasman is also sending a quantum of longer period S to S/SE swell which will see surf heights build from the S to SSE over the next 24-36 hrs.
Fun swells with Perth and Mandurah offering the most favourable winds but the South West will have moments.
TC Fili’s initial WSW to SW movement generated a NE swell that is now supplying really fun surf in the 2-3ft range to the region and this is expected to continue through tomorrow.
TC Fili is expected to become slow moving as it becomes cradled by the peanut high, with a persistent fetch of E’ly winds supplying an extended run of swell from that direction
TC Fili is expected to track into the slot and stall- roughly equidistant between New Caledonia, the North Island and the East Coast of Australia. At some stage it will lose intensity and become extra-tropical but even as an ex TC the overall cradling fetch of E’ly winds is going to supply days of E’ly swell.
