South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 8th Apr)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• TC Fili and long cradling E'ly fetch supplies plenty of swell Sat, with a late pulse Sun, and SE winds- stacks of surf on the Points
• Surf holding at strong levels Mon, with light winds, slowly easing into Tues/Wed with light morning winds
• Unstable outlook going into Thurs and Easter Weekend, stay tuned for updates

Recap

Plenty more Point surf over the last 36-48hrs with size in the 3-4ft range, building today into the 4-5ft range. SE winds have mostly confined surfing to the Points, which have been crowded. With so many waves on offer though, a drift through the lineup usually results in acceptable results. Plenty more surf to come as TC Fili drifts through the wide open slot between. New Caledonia and the North Island. 

Another day of pumping surf on the Superbank

This weekend (Apr 9-10)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. A large 1031 hPa high straddling Tasmania ( no longer a peanut high) is extending a deep E’ly flow along the f/cast region. TC Fili has weakened and is drifting southwards to the SE now of New Caledonia, anchored by a long fetch of E’ly winds from the cradling high. That equals lots of East swell through the coming days, but winds will mostly be favouring sheltered Points.

Very simple f/cast for our region this weekend so let’s not overthink it. Waves, waves and more waves on the Points with SE winds across the region.

Size in the 4-6ft range Sat, mostly from the E, with a few swell trains from the S/SE, although these will be less noticeable at most north facing locations. A brief window of SW to SSW winds is on offer through the Southern Gold Coast to Northern NSW region, before winds swing around to the SE through the day. 

Sunday brings more of the same. A slight easing in size is expected, back into the 3-5ft range but there’ll still be plenty of waves, and a late pulse in longer period E swell should pump the tires up again before dark. Again, lighter SW to SSW winds on offer across the Southern Gold Coast and Far Northern NSW through Sun morning but probably not enough to open up most beachbreaks.

Next week (Apr11 onwards)

Pencil Mon in for a surf if you’ve got the means to do so and missed out on the weekend. TC Fili will have been slowly drifting through the wide open South Pacific swell window between New Caledonia and the North Island between Fri-Sun and that will see better quality E swell of a longer period fill in late Sun, with Mon seeing strong 4-6ft surf from the E. Even better, winds finally co-operate with a light offshore flow expected to last at least through lunch-time before tending to a very late/light Seabreeze. 

E swell continues through Tues, at slightly lower levels although still with plenty of size in the 4-5ft range expected, with a slow easing trend through the a’noon. Winds look great again Tues with light land breezes tending to light SE breezes through the day. Classic Autumn conditions. 

Wed continues the smorgasbord with swell tracking around the E/SE and slowly easing.

By Thurs next week models are really struggling to resolve a complex synoptic environment. We’ll still have E’ly swell from the remains of ex-TC Fili which will see surf hold in the 3-4ft range.

The issue will be an area of low pressure moving through the South Australian/NSW interior. Thats likely to combine with a trough line off the NSW coast which may see variable winds, or a more NE flow into the trough, as a weak area of high pressure moves into the Tasman Sea. 

It’s possible these winds will tend more W/NW to NW if the low tracks towards the NSW/Victorian border Good Friday. That may see some small NE windswell, cleaning up and mixed in with the easing E swell.

GFS now suggests the low moves offshore later Easter Saturday, possibly deepening Sunday with a rapid rise in S swell Easter Mon.

EC model maintains an interior trough and a N’ly flow along the coast Easter Sat/Sun.

That instability looks to be a feature of the Easter weekend, so we’ll need to come back to it with fresh eyes on Mon and see how it’s shaping up.

Check back then and have a great weekend!