EDP Ericeira Pro
Praia Ribeira D'Ilhas
September 29 - Oct 5

The waiting period for the EDP Ericeira Pro begins shortly with competitors expecting an early start.

Much of the west European coastline, and Portugal in particular, have felt the wrath of ex-Hurricane Gabrielle, which tracked east over the weekend, losing Hurricane status but intensifying near the coast as an extratropical low.

Yesterday, the Portuguese coast was bombarded by 12-15 feet of swell, however with the system passing very nearby, strong north-west winds made much of the coast unrideable.

Both swell and wind are currently easing enough for the righthander at Praia Ribeira to begin making sense of the storm. Even if there’s not an immediate start, competitors should hit the water as conditions settle further through the morning.

Sally Fitzgibbon will be looking for a repeat of her 2024 win at Ericeira (WSL/Manuel Gaeda)

Contestants can expect 6 foot+ swell from the north-west with moderate northerly winds that won’t shift far off the axis all day. The upshot will be lumpy waves dropping to around 4 feet by close of play.

Tuesday - Day Two - will see waves in the 4 foot range courtesy of trailing winds inside the fetch, dropping to 3-4 foot at the end of the day.

Tuesday will also see the more traditional pattern of early morning north-east land breezes - which is side-offshore at Praia Ribeira - giving way to north or even north-west sea breezes by late morning. With little synoptic wind to override it, this daily pattern - clean early, lumpy later - will establish itself till the end of the waiting period.

Wednesday through to Friday - Day Three through to Day Five - will see waves hovering in the 3-4 foot range, with competition organisers working around the aforementioned winds, or even tidal phases.

Saturday - Day Six - the swell drops out and will almost certainly be a layday.

As mentioned in the last forecast, the waiting period falls between two hurricane swells - Gabrielle and Humberto. Presently, it appears the swell from Humberto will arrive in time for the waiting period.

During the event the organisers will have one eye on Hurricane Humberto as it drifts across the North Atlantic

If the organisers hold out for the swell - they need five days to run the contest so there’s a possibility it may already be finished - they’ll likely see swell from Humberto moving in sometime on Sunday morning. The swell will approach from the west-northwest, created during Humberto’s - or more accurately ex-Hurricane Humberto’s - extratropical transition in the central North Atlantic.

By that stage the system will be moving swiftly to the north-east and that, combined with the mercurial nature of hurricanes, means we need to factor in a margin for error in size and timing.

A ‘best fit’ scenario would see the swell front hitting first light Sunday with waves in the 3-5 foot range, building to 6 feet+ through the day.

We’ll revisit this outlook throughout the competition.